# CIA Insider Warns: "25-Year Great Depression is About to Strike America" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 12, 2014, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132 "2014-10-12T19:46:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/21 "2014-10-12T22:46:35Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > If there was to be a Great Depression by April 12, 2015. would we not be seeing some signs now? Maybe. Then again, if a terrorist sets off a nuclear bomb in Miami on that date, then no. But frankly, I don’t think that scenario would lead to a 25 year Great Depression anyway. According to the original post in this thread the next Great Depression will start _on_ this date, as opposed to _by_ this date. That in and of itself raises flags. I see no reason to believe this guy, based on the OP. And I’m not visiting a malware website. Fringe at best, crackpottery at worst. Goto website for tracking the up/down of the economy: [http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/](http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) ETA: > [@njtt](#): > > Forgotten all about 2008, have we? Well some called that one. Nouriel Roubini for example. ---
**Author:** ![njtt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ecd19e/32.png) [@njtt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/njtt)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/22 "2014-10-12T22:48:51Z")
But anyway, why would one expect the CIA to have any particular expertise regarding such matters? If you want to know about the prospects for the economy, the person to ask is an economist, or maybe someone who is a big deal on Wall Street, not a spy. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/23 "2014-10-12T22:50:02Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > Like some articles on the internet saying by 2050 we will run out of fossil fuels. Or by 2050 ww3 will be over major water shortage There are articles on the internet that say lots of things. 98% of them are wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/24 "2014-10-12T22:50:30Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > If there was to be a Great Depression by April 12, 2015. would we not be seeing some signs now? People by and large only see warning signs of a depression/recession after the recession begins. Otherwise the financial collapse of both 1929 and 2008 would have been far more widely predicted. Though plenty of people have since said they did predict 2008. If predicting an economic collapse is difficult then predicting the timing of such an economic collapse is almost impossible. Any economist can easily argue that certain Fed or IMF policies are wrong, that certain policies are leading to disaster. Getting the timing correct for that disaster is the job of your Warren Buffett’s and your global financial experts - most of whom will also get it wrong; whereas _some_ will time it correctly. ---
**Author:** ![sweat209](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9fc348/32.png) [@sweat209](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweat209)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/25 "2014-10-12T22:52:03Z")
> [@njtt](#): > > Forgotten all about 2008, have we? Jobs are doing better now than before and unemployment gone down. Does not look like a depression is coming. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/26 "2014-10-12T22:57:05Z")
> [@njtt](#): > > But anyway, why would one expect the CIA to have any particular expertise regarding such matters? If you want to know about the prospects for the economy, the person to ask is an economist, or maybe someone who is a big deal on Wall Street, not a spy. Most of whom failed miserably to predict previous economic and financial crises. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/27 "2014-10-12T23:07:28Z")
And the “the Iranian people love the Shah” CIA has a better track record? ---
**Author:** ![njtt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ecd19e/32.png) [@njtt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/njtt)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/28 "2014-10-12T23:13:49Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Most of whom failed miserably to predict previous economic and financial crises. Sure, but that does not a spy more likely to get it right than they are. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/29 "2014-10-12T23:50:56Z")
> [@njtt](#): > > Sure, but that does not a spy more likely to get it right than they are. Indeed. The CIA has a pretty lousy track record with international issues (“Saddam will never invade Kuwait!”) and I don’t think they’ve ever done anything with economical issues. Yet suddenly their alleged hangers-on are experts on the matter? No. ---
**Author:** ![Wolf333](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolf333/32/3460_2.png) [@Wolf333](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wolf333)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/30 "2014-10-12T23:55:23Z")
World thread ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/31 "2014-10-12T23:55:35Z")
> [@njtt](#): > > Sure, but that does not a spy more likely to get it right than they are. Your continued use of the word “spy” suggests you know little about this man, his education, his career in finance, or, the work he reportedly did with the CIA. None of which qualifies him to be called a “spy”. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/32 "2014-10-13T00:07:27Z")
Anybody you know as a spy is a pretty piss-poor one, by definition. ---
**Author:** ![Wolf333](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolf333/32/3460_2.png) [@Wolf333](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wolf333)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/33 "2014-10-13T00:23:32Z")
> [@Wolf333](#): > > World thread Sorry, WRONG thread. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/34 "2014-10-13T00:45:16Z")
> [@njtt](#): > > Forgotten all about 2008, have we? There were plenty of signs and warnings a year before Sept. 2008 that the economy was in severe trouble - it’s not as if the Lehman moment appeared out of nowhere. … The collapse of the two Bear Stearns hedge funds dedicated to subprime mortgages in July 2007 … The closing of a 2 funds by BNP Paribas in August, 2007 … The increase of the US unemployment rate from 4.5% to 5.0% in 2007 (and the subsequent increase to 6.1% in August 2008) … The decrease of the Fed Fund rate from 5.26 in July 2007 to 2.98 by February 2008 … [This early 2008 list](http://www.occ.treas.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2009/nr-occ-2009-112b.pdf) of the worst of the mortgage originators, most of which closed or sold themselves out in 2007, early 2008. There are 6 months to go until April, 2015 - while there are worrying signs (Europe, stagnation, Russian chest-thumping), there is not the systemic worry about a deteriorating situation that existed in 2007. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/35 "2014-10-13T01:03:36Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Most of whom failed miserably to predict previous economic and financial crises. Economists have successfully predicted 14 of the last 8 financial crises. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/36 "2014-10-13T01:21:22Z")
> [@Wolf333](#): > > Sorry, WRONG thread. Although interestingly, it raises a question (at least to me): Would it be possible, given today’s economics, for the US to have a Great Depression that didn’t rapidly become a world-wide one? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/37 "2014-10-13T01:42:48Z")
> [@njtt](#): > > But anyway, why would one expect the CIA to have any particular expertise regarding such matters? If you want to know about the prospects for the economy, the person to ask is an economist, or maybe someone who is a big deal on Wall Street, not a spy. To be fair, the CIA does employ economists. Much of their published work sucks though, so I by and large agree with you. > [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Your continued use of the word “spy” suggests you know little about this man, his education, his career in finance, or, the work he reportedly did with the CIA. None of which qualifies him to be called a “spy”. CIA analysts don’t have particular expertise in economics either. And seismologists don’t have a great track record at predicting earthquakes either. Or recessions for that matter, in case you’re inclined towards out of the box analysis. As noted upthread, quite a few economists called the housing bubble. But only Roubini has the guts to recognize that the damage wouldn’t be limited to housing prices or bank profits, but that the confluence of certain sorts of derivatives posed a _systemic risk_ to the US and world economy. > [@Zakalwe](#): > > Would it be possible, given today’s economics, for the US to have a Great Depression that didn’t rapidly become a world-wide one? Seems unlikely. Though if Ron Paul became President, I could sketch a scenario. It would involve a banking crisis combined with a refusal to bail out the banks, or conduct expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. Meanwhile the rest of the OECD follows textbook economics (including Milton Friedman) and limits contagion to US borders. I agree though that most great depressions are likely to be worldwide. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/38 "2014-10-13T02:43:51Z")
Didn’t the CIA “warn” us that the USSR was a serious economic rival? And anyone who seriously thinks he can predict the length of a Depression at 25 years belongs in a loony bin with the guy who thinks he’s Napoleon. ---
**Author:** ![Chessic\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7c8e57/32.png) [@Chessic\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chessic_Sense)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/39 "2014-10-13T02:53:21Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > But only Roubini has the guts to recognize that the damage wouldn’t be limited to housing prices or bank profits, but that the confluence of certain sorts of derivatives posed a _systemic risk_ to the US and world economy. You guys have it all wrong. [Quinto](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1615147/?ref_=ttfc_fc_tt) recognized the looming danger. Roubini was the guy in Boiler Room. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132/40 "2014-10-13T02:54:56Z")
> [@Chessic\_Sense](#): > > You guys have it all wrong. [Quinto](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1615147/?ref_=ttfc_fc_tt) recognized the looming danger. Roubini was the guy in Boiler Room. [Ribisi.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovanni_Ribisi) Otherwise known as Phoebe’s nutty brother. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/cia-insider-warns-25-year-great-depression-is-about-to-strike-america/701132.md?page=3)