It’s interesting to consider the failure modes of LLMs vs humans… sure, regurgitation by correlation is bound to create hallucinations (false positives), but we don’t fully understand how and when human minds make mistakes either. How many people are wrong in some small way every day, multiple times a day? We don’t always correct them because it’s rude, unless they’re on the Dope. But if you took a random sample of people and asked them a battery of questions from across different disciplines, I bet they would do much, much worse than LLMs on the whole. Some of this depends on their “training set” (their level of education), but different brains also have subtly different thoughts patterns and, frankly, different grasps on reality. The physical mechanism of failure may be different between man and machine, but neither is a perfect truth seeking system. Philosophers and scientists are often wrong too, to say nothing of politicians.
For that matter, how many times is Google wrong? Wikipedia?
That we argue about hallucinations at all is a testament to how eerily cognizant these autocomplete engines already are. We dwell on their mistakes while taking it for granted that sentences and images and melodies now suddenly have actual meaning to them – yes, encoded in a system different from our neurons, but nonetheless able to semantically transform complex inputs into useful outputs with a high degree of correlation to reality. They’re not perfect, but that’s something most people and other types of machine learning struggle with, too.
I agree LLMs are misused frequently because the average person isn’t well equipped to understand their limitations, but to dismiss them altogether is a reckless disregard for a pretty revolutionary new way of encoding and transforming knowledge. Overnight, in their infancy, LLMs made the Turing Test irrelevant, and it’s now taken for granted that having natural language conversations, or even debates, with your PC or phone is possible. This was considered impossible a few short years ago. Your average LLM will already do better than your average person, across most fields of knowledge, while simultaneously being more eloquent in almost any human or computer language.
To reach a similar level of competence, a human needs a brain that evolved over millions of years, life training and sensory exposure that occurs over a couple dozen years, general education for hours a days, specialized education for half a decade, and then ongoing training in a career.
LLMs are catching up very quickly in the half decade they’ve been around, and are getting incrementally better in the benchmarks every year. They are continuously trained and retrained and fine-tuned in ways that most people aren’t, except maybe a tiny handful of scientists, academics, and researchers. How well would any of us do if we were subjected to the same training data they were? Could you learn ten languages to native fluency in five years, along with being able to make apps in twenty different programming languages, while being able to spit out trivia about basically any field in existence, and then discuss it all in poetry?
This isn’t an argument for their sentience, but their flabbergasting abilities even without it. Perhaps sentience isn’t the fixed prerequisite for semantic information processing that we once thought it was.
There is likely a cap to these abilities, same as there is a cap to human ability and intelligence. But they are still extraordinarily capable in ways that many people are not (summarization and multi dimensional correlation analysis of vast datasets), while also being extraordinarily incapable of tasks many humans would consider mundane, such as counting words and paragraphs. That’s just not how their “minds” work, any more than yours can suddenly learn a new language with a few weeks of training. They can’t tell good jokes either… but have you met my dad?
LLMs are not AGI and probably never will be (on their own). But the threshold for that is constantly changing and the goalposts keep moving, because we really don’t know what a general purpose super intelligence would look like and how it would function. We are ourselves mere fascimiles striving for that imagined goal, but most members are our species are already far far less capable than an LLM at knowledge transformation, a task we not so long ago claimed as our exclusive domain, the thing that set us apart from the animals and machines of the world. Overnight that fantasy was shattered, and it’s only going to get more shattered every decade after this.
IMHO the likely outcome of this quest isn’t that machines will someday “achieve” sentience, but that the concept of sentience will itself become obsolete and irrelevant the same way we no longer care to study “aether” or “humors”.
I dunno, I just think they deserve more credit than they’re typically given.