# Clear evidence (as if we needed any more) psychics are bunk. **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [January 15, 2007, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019 "2007-01-15T02:06:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/21 "2007-01-15T19:24:00Z")
[QUOTE=glee] IMany psychics deal in vague generalities: for example one psychic reported perceiving “the names ‘John’ or ‘Joseph’ or something like that.” [/QUOTE] Which means that not only does “Jane” come off as a hit, but so does “Robert”. And that is why I said, above, that keeping track of predictions and later trying to match them with events will not work as a valid way of detecting “true” psychics. If a psychic is general enough, you wait long enough and include enough events, ALL predictions will come true. But this in no way proves that the psychic had any paranormal knowledge of the future. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/22 "2007-01-15T19:34:01Z")
Hey I watch _Medium_ and that is a real person. That means psychics are real, right? Right? ---
**Author:** ![glee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b5a626/32.png) [@glee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glee)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/23 "2007-01-15T19:47:26Z")
[QUOTE=Loach] Hey I watch _Medium_ and that is a real person. That means psychics are real, right? Right? [/QUOTE] I watch _Charmed_, so I not only know that witches exist, but also that they are hot. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/24 "2007-01-15T20:01:40Z")
[QUOTE=Musicat] Nope. Can you tell me why? [/QUOTE] Why? ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/25 "2007-01-15T20:03:11Z")
[QUOTE=glee] I watch _Charmed_, so I not only know that witches exist, but also that they are hot. 😃 [/QUOTE] I went to art school. I know from personal experience that at least one Witch exists (and yes, she was hot. 🙂 ) (My girlfriend at the time was Wiccan…) ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/26 "2007-01-15T20:37:40Z")
[QUOTE=Sunspace] I went to art school. I know from personal experience that at least one Witch exists (and yes, she was hot. 🙂 ) (My girlfriend at the time was Wiccan…) [/QUOTE] We have two proven cites. Thats all the scientific proof I need. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/27 "2007-01-15T21:23:21Z")
[QUOTE=Sunspace] Why? [/QUOTE] See my post #21 in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/28 "2007-01-15T21:34:43Z")
[QUOTE=Musicat] Which means that not only does “Jane” come off as a hit, but so does “Robert”. And that is why I said, above, that keeping track of predictions and later trying to match them with events will not work as a valid way of detecting “true” psychics. If a psychic is general enough, you wait long enough and include enough events, ALL predictions will come true. But this in no way proves that the psychic had any paranormal knowledge of the future. [/QUOTE] This is only qualifiedly true. It’s certainly possible for someone who was, in fact, a “real” psychic to make a set of predictions, particularly ones with a time-range attached, that provided VERY strong evidence for that psychic’s actual abilities. It’s also possible for a psychic to make predictions that are not only wrong, but will always remain wrong (ie, the ones discussed in the OP). If a psychic presents things like “there will be a crisis in a region near a lake” with no time limit, well, then we just ignore them as providing no evidence one way or the other (although the fact that the prediction just happens to be such a vague one is certainly a weaker form of evidence against the psychic). ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/29 "2007-01-15T21:45:04Z")
And it’s also possible for a psychic to make “predictions” about things already known, like a hot reading. So tallying up the predictions and the results without examining each would be a poor way to determine if paranormal abilities exist. > [@MaxTheVool](#): > > It’s certainly possible for someone who was, in fact, a “real” psychic… No such animal exists. If you feel otherwise, what is your strongest evidence? ---
**Author:** ![TheLoadedDog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/35a633/32.png) [@TheLoadedDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheLoadedDog)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/30 "2007-01-15T22:31:49Z")
The Sydney Psychics’ Association clubhouse has a doorbell. Why is that? ---
**Author:** ![lynne-42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lynne-42/32/3138_2.png) [@lynne-42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lynne-42)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2007, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/31 "2007-01-15T23:01:49Z")
[QUOTE=Kalhoun] How lucrative is this? We have a psychic in town, complete with a neon sign in her window. I’ve never seen anyone go in or out of the building, but I assume she’s doing readings, and has been there for at least 20 years. [/QUOTE] It’s not lucrative for me. I am only paid for them if they are part of a performance I give, mostly to schools but also as a dinner speaker, called “Science and the Paranormal”. Otherwise I do them as free demonstrations and to allow people to experience how it feels to have a reading, knowing it is safe and we will debrief. As for those doing it for money, psychics here charge about $50 - $150 per reading, often less than an hour. Better known ones charge much, much more. Some in the thousands. I don’t think your neighbourhood astrologer is making big money, just easy money. Nor do I think they are frauds. I do think they are deluded as to the source of their information. Is that what you meant? Lynne ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2007, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019/32 "2007-01-16T02:29:13Z")
[QUOTE=Musicat] Nope. Can you tell me why? [/QUOTE] There’s a better reason. You can never mine data to prove some hypothesis the experiment was not meant to measure, because you’ll always wind up with something. If any psychic looks good based on mining data, you need to collect predictions for the next year, and check them out. If you give enough people an ESP test, someone will score significantly above chance. It doesn’t mean anything unless this person keeps on scoring that way. The successful psychics have had one or two lucky hits, and publicize them forever, never mentioning the misses. That plus their cold or hot reading ability, of course. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clear-evidence-as-if-we-needed-any-more-psychics-are-bunk/388019.md?page=1)