# "Climate change is accelerating beyond expectations"; while Americans' belief in AGW declines
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [November 25, 2009, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966 "2009-11-25T22:45:34Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2009, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/1 "2009-11-25T22:45:34Z")
Two significant anthropogenic-climate-change-related stories (other than “Climategate” :rolleyes:) hit the news this week:
1. Climatologist [Richard Sommerville](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Somerville) announces, “Climate change is accelerating beyond expectations.” [Press release:](http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=1033)
> [@](#):
>
> **Scripps Institution of Oceanography / University of California, San Diego**
>
> Global ice-sheets are melting at an increased rate; Arctic sea-ice is disappearing much faster than recently projected, and future sea-level rise is now expected to be much higher than previously forecast, according to a new global scientific synthesis released today by some of the world’s top climate scientists including Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego climate scientist Richard Somerville.
>
> In a special report called “The Copenhagen Diagnosis,” 26 researchers, most of whom are authors of published IPCC reports, conclude that several important aspects of climate change are occurring at the high end or even beyond the expectations of only a few years ago.
>
> “Carbon dioxide emissions cannot be allowed to continue to rise if humanity intends to limit the risk of unacceptable climate change. The task is urgent and the turning point must come soon. If we are to avoid more than two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warming, which many countries have already accepted as a goal, then emissions need to peak before 2020 and then decline rapidly,” Somerville said.
>
> The report also notes that global warming continues to track early IPCC projections based on greenhouse gas increases. Without significant mitigation, the report says global mean warming could reach as high as seven degrees Celsius (12.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
>
> The researchers will release the report two weeks before United Nations-led climate change talks begin in Copenhagen, Demark. The conference is anticipated to produce a successor or companion emissions agreement to the 1998 Kyoto Protocol, the first commitment period of which expires in 2012.
>
> The Copenhagen Diagnosis, which was a year in the making, documents the key findings in climate change science since the publication of the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.
>
> The new evidence to have emerged includes:
>
> • Satellite and direct measurements now demonstrate that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise at an increasing rate.
>
> • Arctic sea-ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models. For example, the area of summer sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40 percent greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
>
> • Sea level has risen more than five centimeters over the past 15 years, about 80 percent higher than IPCC projections from 2001. Accounting for ice-sheets and glaciers, global sea-level rise may exceed one meter by 2100, with a rise of up to two meters considered an upper limit by this time. This is much higher than previously projected by the IPCC. Furthermore, beyond 2100, sea level rise of several meters must be expected over the next few centuries.
>
> • In 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were about 40 percent higher than those in 1990. Even if emissions do not grow beyond today’s levels, within just 20 years the world will have used up the allowable emissions to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than two degrees Celsius.
>
> The report concludes that global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within the next five to ten years for the world to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the very worst impacts of climate change.
>
> To stabilize climate, global emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases need to reach near-zero well within this century, the report states.
[Executive Summary of the Copenhagen Diagnosis](http://copenhagendiagnosis.org/download/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_ES_English.pdf) (pdf)
[The Copenhagen Diagnosis](http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_LOW.pdf) (pdf)
2. [Fewer Americans believe in global warming, poll shows:](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/24/AR2009112402989.html)
> [@](#):
>
> By Juliet Eilperin
> Washington Post Staff Writer
> Wednesday, November 25, 2009
>
> The percentage of Americans who believe global warming is happening has dipped from 80 to 72 percent in the past year, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, even as a majority still support a national cap on greenhouse gas emissions.
>
> The poll’s findings – which also show that 55 percent of respondents think the United States should curb its carbon output even if major developing nations such as China and India do less – suggest increasing political polarization around the issue, just as the Obama administration and congressional Democrats are intensifying efforts to pass climate legislation and broker an international global warming pact.
>
> The increase in climate skepticism is driven largely by a shift within the GOP. Since its peak 3 1/2 years ago, belief that climate change is happening is down sharply among Republicans – 76 to 54 percent – and independents – 86 to 71 percent. It dipped more modestly among Democrats, from 92 to 86 percent. A majority of respondents still support legislation to cap emissions and trade pollution allowances, by 53 to 42 percent.
>
> Amanda Feinberg, a retired administrative assistant living in South Williamsport, Pa., said she became disenchanted with the idea of human-caused global warming when former vice president Al Gore launched a public awareness campaign with his documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth.”
>
> “He just seemed a little radical in his views,” said Feinberg, a Republican. “I don’t deny it’s happening, I just think it’s just an evolution of nature.”
>
> Lisa Woolcott, another Republican poll respondent, said she doesn’t think that burning fossil fuels is “causing all the global warming,” adding: “We can’t control what happens in the atmosphere.” But Woolcott, a physician’s assistant who lives in Kansas City, Kan., said she supports the idea of a bill that would cap the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions and doesn’t think the United States should predicate its actions on what other nations do. “We need to do what’s best for us,” she said. “I don’t think we should back down.”
I propose no particular question for debate here, because too many suggest themselves as it is.
[hunts in vain for innocent-smiling-rolleyes-“Who, me?” smiley]
---
### Author:  [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2009, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/2 "2009-11-25T23:00:15Z")
Hell, if its gonna happen, let it happen big. That way we can quit fracking around with hippie power and “clean coal” and “green” SUVS and retarded hydrogen “power” and go nuclear power and synthetic liquid fuels and be done with it.
---
### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2009, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/3 "2009-11-25T23:23:13Z")
This just may be all our fault, me and mine. When the hippies came out for environmental stuff, we pretty much doomed the cause right then and there. Now in the public mind, even all this totally un-hip data is suspect, buncha tree-huggers and hippies, not to be taken seriously. So now nobody will listen and we’re all gonna die.
Bummer. Sorry.
---
### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2009, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/4 "2009-11-25T23:33:53Z")
> [@elucidator](#):
>
> This just may be all our fault, me and mine. When the hippies came out for environmental stuff, we pretty much doomed the cause right then and there. Now in the public mind, even all this totally un-hip data is suspect, buncha tree-huggers and hippies, not to be taken seriously. So now nobody will listen and we’re all gonna die.
>
> Bummer. Sorry.
'Sawright, have a toke.
---
### Author:  [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2009, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/5 "2009-11-25T23:44:39Z")
Disbelief in AGW is beyond the reach of science now. It’s become a matter of tribal faith among a substantial fraction of the population that it’s all a massive scam.
Global warming won’t be taken seriously until something big and undeniable happens like the breakup of the Arctic ice cap. Then everyone will panic and whatever we do to counteract it will be much more expensive and painful than prudent action right now would be.
---
### Author:  [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/6 "2009-11-26T00:09:20Z")
> [@The\_Hamster\_King](#):
>
> Global warming won’t be taken seriously until something big and undeniable happens like the breakup of the Arctic ice cap. Then everyone will panic and whatever we do to counteract it will be much more expensive and painful than \*\*prudent \*\*action right now would be.
bolding mine.
Which brings me back to my post.
If its slow and not bad, we will do all sorts of half assed stuff that sounds good but probably does more harm than good. At least when it becomes obvious its a real freaking disaster what needs to get done gets done.
---
### Author:  [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/7 "2009-11-26T00:12:24Z")
> [@elucidator](#):
>
> This just may be all our fault, me and mine. When the hippies came out for environmental stuff, we pretty much doomed the cause right then and there. Now in the public mind, even all this totally un-hip data is suspect, buncha tree-huggers and hippies, not to be taken seriously. So now nobody will listen and we’re all gonna die.
>
> Bummer. Sorry.
**The sky is falling, the sky is falling…** 😛
I’m not saying global temps don’t fluctuate. One look back through history will provide all the evidence of that one needs. It’s the degree of impact man creates that is in question.
Throw in shysters like Al Gore, the rest of the politicians and big wigs trying to line their pockets and now mix in data credibility questions…sorry, it’s just turned into another “follow the money” scenario.
---
### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/8 "2009-11-26T00:14:41Z")
Yeah, the solar power industry and the wind generation cabal, throwing all that money around, while poor Exxon has to count pennies to buy porridge…
---
### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/9 "2009-11-26T00:14:52Z")
Ya, those damn climate scientists, rolling in all that endorsement money that’s rolling in, while the poor oil company executives are forced to sell pencils on the street corners to get by…
Oh wait…
eta Simulpost!
---
### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/10 "2009-11-26T00:16:14Z")
Great minds think alike. Twisted minds as well, it would seem.
---
### Author:  [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/11 "2009-11-26T00:27:03Z")
Gee, last October was the third-coldest on record!
Where are all the devastating hurricanes that Al Gore told us would happen?
I don’t see any ships taking the Northwest passage-what is going on??
---
### Author:  [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/12 "2009-11-26T00:27:48Z")
Actually, I do have a serious complaint for the hippies.
Nuclear power.
See, that’s technology that’s clearly carbon-neutral, and if we had a bunch of nuclear plants churning out electricity, we’d be in great shape.
But no. You damn hippies with your “No nukes!” chants ruined it.
So get a haircut, whydoncha?
---
### Author:  [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/13 "2009-11-26T00:33:05Z")
Revenue in 2007 of the top 9 integrated oil companies: 1.6 Trillion dollars.
You want a “follow the money” scenario?
Follow the 1.6 TRILLION Dollars per year.
Compare it to the amounts of grants that a TOP climate scientist like Richard Somerville gets:
```
* Direct Validation of GCM Parameterizations Against TOGA-COARE Observations Amendment Date: 1998-10-19; Funding Amount: $210,486
* TOGA: Process-Oriented Diagnostic Modeling for TOGA-COARE Amendment Date: 1995-05-26; Funding Amount: $135,000
* Climate Variability Studies over the Northern Hemisphere Amendment Date: 1990-04-06; Funding Amount: $63,529
* Cloud Radiation Feedbacks in Climate Modeling Amendment Date: 1987-11-17; Funding Amount: $130,000
* Cloud Optical Thickness Feedbacks in Climate Modeling Amendment Date: 1985-10-17; Funding Amount: $93,500
* Computing Facility Augmentation at SIO Amendment Date: 1984-11-29; Funding Amount: $44,600
* The Effects of Orography on Planetary Waves in the Atmosphere Amendment Date: 1983-05-12; Funding Amount: $56,600
```
eta: That would be .00005% of a single years revenues.
---
### Author:  [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/14 "2009-11-26T00:34:11Z")
> [@elucidator](#):
>
> Yeah, the solar power industry and the wind generation cabal, throwing all that money around, while poor Exxon has to count pennies to buy porridge…
not to hijack but…
Might want to pay attention to [some of the projects Exxon is involved with](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/oil-giant-exxon-sees-the-future-ndash-and-it-is-green-algae-1746491.html)/investing in. $600 million is not chump change
---
### Author:  [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/15 "2009-11-26T00:36:26Z")
> [@Bricker](#):
>
> Actually, I do have a serious complaint for the hippies.
>
> Nuclear power.
>
> See, that’s technology that’s clearly carbon-neutral, and if we had a bunch of nuclear plants churning out electricity, we’d be in great shape.
>
> But no. You damn hippies with your “No nukes!” chants ruined it.
>
> So get a haircut, whydoncha?
Amen, well all except for the haircut bit
---
### Author:  [@billfish678](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/billfish678)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/16 "2009-11-26T00:37:14Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> Revenue in 2007 of the top 9 integrated oil companies: 1.6 Trillion dollars.
>
> You want a “follow the money” scenario?
>
> Follow the 1.6 TRILLION Dollars per year.
>
> Compare it to the amounts of grants that a TOP climate scientist like Richard Somerville gets:
I think the top 9 oil companies might just maybe have a few more expenses and employ a few more people than Richard Somerville.
---
### Author:  [@flickster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flickster)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/17 "2009-11-26T00:40:47Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#):
>
> Revenue in 2007 of the top 9 integrated oil companies: 1.6 Trillion dollars.
>
> You want a “follow the money” scenario?
>
> Follow the 1.6 TRILLION Dollars per year.
>
> Compare it to the amounts of grants that a TOP climate scientist like Richard Somerville gets:
>
> ```
> * Direct Validation of GCM Parameterizations Against TOGA-COARE Observations Amendment Date: 1998-10-19; Funding Amount: $210,486
> * TOGA: Process-Oriented Diagnostic Modeling for TOGA-COARE Amendment Date: 1995-05-26; Funding Amount: $135,000
> * Climate Variability Studies over the Northern Hemisphere Amendment Date: 1990-04-06; Funding Amount: $63,529
> * Cloud Radiation Feedbacks in Climate Modeling Amendment Date: 1987-11-17; Funding Amount: $130,000
> * Cloud Optical Thickness Feedbacks in Climate Modeling Amendment Date: 1985-10-17; Funding Amount: $93,500
> * Computing Facility Augmentation at SIO Amendment Date: 1984-11-29; Funding Amount: $44,600
> * The Effects of Orography on Planetary Waves in the Atmosphere Amendment Date: 1983-05-12; Funding Amount: $56,600
>
> ```
>
> eta: That would be .00005% of a single years revenues.
I do hope you realize there is a difference between revenue and profit
---
### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/18 "2009-11-26T00:50:42Z")
Also of interest: [NPR interview 11/22/09 with Dr. Mojib Latif:](http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120668812)
> [@](#):
>
> Dr. MOJIB LATIF (Climate and Ocean Scientist, University of Kiel): What we are experiencing is a kind of hold; temperatures are more or less steady and remain at relatively high levels. The last record was in 1998.
>
> RAZ: So we’re not getting hotter from 1998 right now.
>
> Dr. LATIF: We are not getting hotter but not colder either, and so, you know, the situation is more or less steady, but this is nothing unusual.
>
> RAZ: What is causing this? Why hasn’t there been an increase in the Earth’s temperature since 1998?
>
> Dr. LATIF: Well, we believe that a change in ocean current, especially in the tropical Pacific and in the southern oceans on the Southern Hemisphere, cooled the sea surface temperature, and this then led to an offset, you know, to global warming, and so the net effect is basically that there was no additional change.
>
> RAZ: So based on your research, if I have this right, climate change, particularly a warming of the Earth’s climate, is still the trend. It’s just been slowed down for the last few years because of ocean currents, changes in ocean currents.
>
> Dr. LATIF: Exactly. So - and this is the reason, because we have the short-term climate fluctuation, therefore, it doesn’t make sense to look at short periods to assess the human impact on climate. So you have to consider several decades. Only then you see basically the long-term warming trend, and therefore, we can’t really draw any inferences from this hold in the last 10 years or so, you know, with regard to global warming.
>
> RAZ: So when do you expect the Earth to start warming again at an accelerated rate, what year?
>
> Dr. LATIF: Well, we did only forecasts for the time until 2015. However, if we look further, then we have some indications that there are after, say after 2015 or 2020, you know, global warming will accelerate again.
>
> RAZ: And how much warmer do you estimate it will become over the next sort of two or three decades?
>
> Dr. LATIF: I think maybe .2 or .3 degrees, but it may accelerate thereafter. So it basically depends on, you know, how we behave during the next decades, right? So if we emit - or if we continue to emit these greenhouse gases at the present rate, you know, then the warming trend will be faster.
---
### Author:  [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/19 "2009-11-26T00:52:11Z")
> [@ralph124c](#):
>
> Gee, last October was the third-coldest on record!
> Where are all the devastating hurricanes that Al Gore told us would happen?
> I don’t see any ships taking the Northwest passage-what is going on??
2009 is shaping up to be the fifth warmest on record, globally.
---
### Author:  [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)
#### Post date: [November 26, 2009, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/20 "2009-11-26T00:54:40Z")
> [@billfish678](#):
>
> I think the top 9 oil companies might just maybe have a few more expenses and employ a few more people than Richard Somerville.
> [@flickster](#):
>
> I do hope you realize there is a difference between revenue and profit
So the argument is now, “No, the oil companies really _are_ poor!”
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