# "Climate change is accelerating beyond expectations"; while Americans' belief in AGW declines **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 25, 2009, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966 "2009-11-25T22:45:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2009, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/181 "2009-12-09T23:56:16Z")
If Sarah Palin has the slightest idea what a “peer reviewed paper” is, I’ll eat a moose. Raw. Alive. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/182 "2009-12-10T00:06:39Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > That’s not what was being asserted. > > It is, in fact, 100% irrelevant to what was being asserted. You want it to be, but it does not make it so. If the cases referred by the emails are not relevant, your hypothetical say so’s are even less. > **[BBC News - Climate science: Sceptical about bias](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7092614.stm)** > > Is there any evidence that science is biased against the "sceptics"? > [@](#): > > The sum total of evidence obtained through this open invitation, then, is one first-hand claim of bias in scientific journals, not backed up by documentary evidence; and three second-hand claims, two well-known and one that the scientist in question does not consider evidence of anti-sceptic feeling. > > No-one said they had been refused a place on the IPCC, the central global body in climate change, or denied a job or turned down for promotion or sacked or refused access to a conference platform, or indeed anything else. > > If there is an anti-sceptic bias running through the institutions of science, it is evidently keeping itself well hidden. > > IPCC: As good as it gets > No consensus on IPCC’s bias > Whether this exercise has conclusively disproved a bias is not for me to say - I am sure others will find plenty to say, doubtless in the courteous and gracious language that typifies climate discourse nowadays. > > But I will say this; if someone persistently claims to be a great football player, and yet fails to find the net when you put him in front of an open goal, you cannot do other than doubt his claim. > > Andres Millan, who wrote to me on the subject from Mexico, offered another explanation for why scientific journals, research grants, conference agendas and the IPCC itself are dominated by research that backs or assumes the reality of modern-day greenhouse warming. > > “Most global warming sceptics have no productive alternatives; they say it is a hoax, or that it will cause severe social problems, or that we should allocate resources elsewhere,” he wrote. > > "Scientifically, they have not put forward a compelling, rich, and variegated theory. > > “And until that happens, to expect the government, or any source of scientific funding, to give as much money, attention, or room within academic journals to the alternatives, seems completely misguided.” > [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Again, the question is whether her statement was true or false – and I don’t see that Palin limited her comments to Trenberth. Then point to the other emails that showed the same doubts on the consensus at CRU. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/183 "2009-12-10T00:36:14Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > That’s not what was being asserted. > > > > It is, in fact, 100% irrelevant to what was being asserted. > > You want it to be, but it does not make it so. If the cases referred by the emails are not relevant, your hypothetical say so’s are even less. There’s nothing “hypothetical” about my “say so”. Palin quite literally stated that the climate experts tried to silence their critics by preventing them from publishing in peer-reviewed journals. She was quite literally correct. There’s not a single hypothetical in there; it’s just Palin making a 100% correct statement, followed by you making an unrelated claim. [QUOTE=GIGObuster] > [@](#): > > Again, the question is whether her statement was true or false – and I don’t see that Palin limited her comments to Trenberth. Then point to the other emails that showed the same doubts on the consensus at CRU. [/QUOTE] Oh, I’m happy to discuss Trenberth – as per your quote, starting where it kicks off with a brisk _“we don’t have an observing system adequate to track it, but…”_ That’s the key; what comes _ **after** _ the “but” is that context you’re on about, and what comes _ **before** _ the “but” is fodder for a truthful statement; it’s not the whole truth, as she’s not mentioning additional true information, but she’s accurate so long as she’s referencing that bit about how the _“fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.”_ Yes, he goes on to say rather a lot of other stuff – but that doesn’t make her _ **wrong.** _ That’s why I’ve said _ **throughout** _ that she is (a) mentioning true information while (b) not mentioning additional true information. Here, let me now introduce a hypothetical “say so” or two; you seem keen on the idea, maybe it’ll help. So: if I tell you the doctor said I should cut down on chocolate, that statement is true or false _ **regardless** _ of whether I then mention he also said I should cut down on red meat. If I tell you I saw a man shoot himself, that statement is true or false _ **regardless** _ of whether I go on to mention that someone else loaded the gun and handed it to him and told him to commit suicide. The statement stands or falls on its own. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/184 "2009-12-10T00:55:13Z")
Whar temperature rise, does the model predict? If CO2 eduction is of marginal benefit, then what wil be the inducement to educe the production of greenhouse gases?😕 ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/185 "2009-12-10T01:05:29Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > There’s nothing “hypothetical” about my “say so”. Palin quite literally.. Meh, more nitpicking with no debate. And I have doubts that you are clear on what “literally” means. > [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Oh, I’m happy to discuss Trenberth – as per your quote, starting where it kicks off with a brisk _“we don’t have an observing system adequate to track it, but…”_ That’s the key; what comes _ **after** _ the “but” is that context you’re on about, and what comes _ **before** _ the “but” is fodder for a truthful statement; it’s not the whole truth, as she’s not mentioning additional true information, but she’s accurate so long as she’s referencing that bit about how the _“fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.”_ > > Yes, he goes on to say rather a lot of other stuff – but that doesn’t make her _ **wrong.** _ That’s why I’ve said _ **throughout** _ that she is (a) mentioning true information while (b) not mentioning additional true information. > > Here, let me now introduce a hypothetical “say so” or two; you seem keen on the idea, maybe it’ll help. So: if I tell you the doctor said I should cut down on chocolate, that statement is true or false _ **regardless** _ of whether I then mention he also said I should cut down on red meat. If I tell you I saw a man shoot himself, that statement is true or false _ **regardless** _ of whether I go on to mention that someone else loaded the gun and handed it to him and told him to commit suicide. The statement stands or falls on its own. That was just a fancy way to say: “I have nothing” ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/186 "2009-12-10T02:40:37Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > There’s nothing “hypothetical” about my “say so”. Palin quite literally.. > > Meh, more nitpicking with no debate. And I have doubts that you are clear on what “literally” means. Right back at you. Fortunately, we’re not at an impasse; we can see which of us is correct, it’ll only take a moment. You’re wrong about the former if you’re wrong about the latter, so let’s explore the latter for a moment. Here’s what I wrote: _“Palin quite literally stated that the climate experts tried to silence their critics by preventing them from publishing in peer-reviewed journals.”_ Palin, by comparison, wrote that the _“climate ‘experts’ deliberately destroyed records, manipulated data to ‘hide the decline’ in global temperatures, and tried to silence their critics by preventing them from publishing in peer-reviewed journals.”_ So “literally” is being used correctly; my claim is what she stated. I therefore have _ **well-founded** _ doubts about whether _ **you’re** _ clear on what “literally” means; I used it to describe my exact copy-and-paste of what she set forth in words, such that your doubts are evidence against your own accuracy. You’ve thus demonstrably offered an ill-founded nitpick in lieu of debate, which is a fancy way to say you have nothing. By contrast, > [@](#): > > That was just a fancy way to say: “I have nothing” No, it was a straightforward way to say: “The statement was true.” ---
**Author:** ![WarmNPrickly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d78d45/32.png) [@WarmNPrickly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WarmNPrickly)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/187 "2009-12-10T02:49:58Z")
> [@The Other Waldo Pepper](#): > > Here’s what I wrote: _“Palin quite literally stated that the climate experts tried to silence their critics by preventing them from publishing in peer-reviewed journals.”_ Quite literally, this is part of the peer review process, so I guess quite literally, every paper that has ever been rejected from being published in peer reviewed journals, has quite literally been silenced by it’s critics. Yay! Science works! ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/188 "2009-12-10T02:55:39Z")
> [@WarmNPrickly](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Here’s what I wrote: “Palin quite literally stated that the climate experts tried to silence their critics by preventing them from publishing in peer-reviewed journals.” > > Quite literally, this is part of the peer review process, so I guess quite literally, every paper that has ever been rejected from being published in peer reviewed journals, has quite literally been silenced by it’s critics. We’re in mere agreement. ---
**Author:** ![WarmNPrickly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d78d45/32.png) [@WarmNPrickly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WarmNPrickly)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/189 "2009-12-10T03:30:35Z")
Good lord, could we actually have agreement in great debates? Is this a first. Should we hold hands and sing kumbaya or something? We can do that, but first I would like you to show me this. > [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > The problem is, those e-mails _ **do** _ reveal that leading climate experts deliberately destroyed records. … Where exactly in those e-mails does it reveal that they deliberately destroyed records? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/190 "2009-12-10T03:48:16Z")
> [@WarmNPrickly](#): > > Where exactly in those e-mails does it reveal that they deliberately destroyed records? “Mike, Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise. He’s not in at the moment - minor family crisis. Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t have his new email address. We will be getting Caspar to do likewise” might be a good starting point. ---
**Author:** ![WarmNPrickly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d78d45/32.png) [@WarmNPrickly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WarmNPrickly)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/191 "2009-12-10T04:10:54Z")
OK, so once again it’s true, even though it has no real bearing on the validity of the science. Bringing it up, is just misleading and that’s not technically lying. Here, hold my hand. ---
**Author:** ![psikeyhackr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/97f17d/32.png) [@psikeyhackr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psikeyhackr)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2009, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966/192 "2009-12-10T20:26:48Z")
Well Americans are SO scientific. [http://fora.tv/2009/08/18/A\_REALLY\_Inconvenient\_Truth\_Dan\_Miller](http://fora.tv/2009/08/18/A_REALLY_Inconvenient_Truth_Dan_Miller) We have educators that can’t figure out the obvious. [![]( " - YouTube") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0wk4qG2mIg) That was in the 80s. If Harvard graduates could not explain winter and summer then what are most people supposed to think. Oh they can’t think. The **very best education**. LOL The educators can’t figure out what information is important. Shakespeare is more important than physics. YEAH RIGHT! [![]( " - YouTube") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DuiQvPLWziQ) psik [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-is-accelerating-beyond-expectations-while-americans-belief-in-agw-declines/518966.md?page=9)