# Climate Change Wars: Water - Egypt and Ethiopia **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 9, 2020, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685 "2020-02-09T20:11:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2020, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/1 "2020-02-09T20:11:24Z")
Egypt is concerned over [a dam being built on the Nile](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/09/world/africa/nile-river-dam.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) by Ethiopia which may reduce their water supply. Negotiations are ongoing. > [@](#): > > A colossal hydroelectric dam being built on the Nile 2,000 miles upriver, in the lowlands of Ethiopia, threatens to further constrict Egypt’s water supply — and is scheduled to start filling this summer. … > > … For eight years, officials from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan — which lies between the two countries — squabbled fruitlessly over the dam. Ninety-five percent of Egyptians live along the Nile or in its teeming delta, and the river provides nearly all of their water. They worry that, if the dam in Ethiopia is filled too quickly, it could drastically curtail their water supply. … > > … While the two nations spar over the dam, hydrologists say the most pressing threat facing the Nile stems from population growth and climate change. Egypt’s population increases by one million people every six months — a soaring rate that the United Nations predicts will lead to water shortages by 2025. > > Rising sea levels threaten to nibble at Egypt’s low-lying coast and help push saltwater inland, spoiling fertile land. Increasingly volatile weather is another risk. … > > … The dam has become the focus of Egypt’s water anxieties. … So _no matter if the dam came on line at all or not_ there will be water shortages and significant problems in Egypt soon and they will get worse. Is there any chance that Egypt won’t blame Ethiopia for them and that conflict won’t break out, such as a strike on the dam? Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs? ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2020, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/2 "2020-02-09T21:24:07Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs? The sentence right before the one I quoted raises real room for doubt. Egypt is significantly stronger than Ethiopia. There is the real risk the that result of taking more water is to make the water situation even more desperate while adding on significant issues with power. The decision makers for any kind of large scale water diversion likely won’t be the ones responding personally to the desperation of water shortages. There might be pressure from the electorate depending on how big a chunk of the populace is affected. Also, Ethiopia is still relatively early in their transition to democracy with free and fair elections scheduled for this May. A slide back towards authoritarianism is another possibility rather than listening to the population most affected. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2020, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/3 "2020-02-09T22:35:46Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Is there any chance that Egypt won’t blame Ethiopia for them and that conflict won’t break out, such as a strike on the dam? Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs? Unlikely. Any strike on the GERD would only temporary hinder Ethiopian hydro-electrical development but it would invite retaliatory strikes to Egyptian infrastructure which would be utterly catastrophic in flood deaths alone (not to mention food/crops/industry/etc). Tough talk aside, Egypt can only deal with the situation that exists. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2020, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/4 "2020-02-09T23:52:25Z")
Ethiopia is, or ought to be, well within its rights. Egypt ought to respond by using Nile water more efficiently and/or maybe some desalination (although it’s expensive.) ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/5 "2020-02-10T11:19:17Z")
On paper, Egypt clearly outguns Ethiopia. But on the ground, other factors come into play - political will, Egypt’s economy, the position of other countries on e.g allowing Egyptian overflights or troop passage. Egypt would be very stupid to push the issue. This isn’t the colonial days, and Egypt needs to get with the times. It would actually benefit in some ways from the dam, especially in drought times. But they will likely lack the vision to see it. ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/6 "2020-02-10T12:53:23Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > There is the real risk the that result of taking more water is to make the water situation even more desperate while adding on significant issues with power. The decision makers for any kind of large scale water diversion likely won’t be the ones responding personally to the desperation of water shortages. There might be pressure from the electorate depending on how big a chunk of the populace is affected. Ethiopia’s [topographical reality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam#/media/File:Ethiopia_relief_location_map.jpg) as an extremely high altitude mountainous country (split in half by the rift valley) makes any river diversion plan a technological impossibility. Unless we as humans crack the code to making water flow up and around a mountain range higher than the Alps (and five times it’s area) the Nile will always empty into Sudan where it currently does. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/7 "2020-02-10T13:34:33Z")
Well, the planet’s eroding environment coupled with what is apparently an out-of-control and steady planet wide population increase doesn’t bode well for the future. It’s difficult not to envision those kinds of conflicts in the not too distant future. However, since war and its aftershocks of starvation and disease have always been the best forms of population control, the populations of the areas at war may decrease to the point that even the environmentally damaged area can support, thus easing tensions and ending the war. On the other hand, if the war itself further damages the environment, everyone’s a loser. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/8 "2020-02-10T17:12:36Z")
> [@Jasmine](#): > > war and its aftershocks of starvation and disease have always been the best forms of population control You and I appear to have different definitions of “best”. > [@Jasmine](#): > > everyone’s a loser. This, however, is all too likely. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/9 "2020-02-10T19:04:54Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > . > Egypt would be very stupid to push the issue. This isn’t the colonial days, and Egypt needs to get with the times. It would actually benefit in some ways from the dam, especially in drought times. But they will likely lack the vision to see it. I’m not sure what this exactly means. From what I can see, the gains for Egypt are pretty theoretical and based on awesome coordination/cooperation between all the dam operators. Colour me -\> :dubious: And what exactly does “get with the times” mean in this context? ---
**Author:** ![Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aji_de_gallina/32/260_2.png) [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aji_de_Gallina)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/10 "2020-02-10T19:24:03Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Egypt is concerned over [a dam being built on the Nile](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/09/world/africa/nile-river-dam.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) by Ethiopia which may reduce their water supply. Negotiations are ongoing. > So _no matter if the dam came on line at all or not_ there will be water shortages and significant problems in Egypt soon and they will get worse. > > Is there any chance that Egypt won’t blame Ethiopia for them and that conflict won’t break out, such as a strike on the dam? Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs? Why Global Warming certainly plays a role, the problem of Egypt’s eroding coastline is more due to the Aswan dam and how it prevent silt from being deposited at the Delta. > [@Jasmine](#): > > Well, the planet’s eroding environment coupled with what is apparently an out-of-control and steady planet wide population increase doesn’t bode well for the future. It’s difficult not to envision those kinds of conflicts in the not too distant future. > > However, since war and its aftershocks of starvation and disease have always been the best forms of population control, the populations of the areas at war may decrease to the point that even the environmentally damaged area can support, thus easing tensions and ending the war. On the other hand, if the war itself further damages the environment, everyone’s a loser. Population is not, in any way, in an out-of-control increase and hasn’t been for decades. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/11 "2020-02-11T01:40:21Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Population is not, in any way, in an out-of-control increase and hasn’t been for decades. A million more each year when water supply is dropping is a problem there. Wouldn’t be if there was enough water. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/12 "2020-02-11T01:58:27Z")
People have been telling the Egyptians since this project began that they needed to get cracking on building solar-powered desalinization plants all along their coastline, and they’ve chosen not to do it, instead waiting until the last minute to start complaining and threatening. Ethiopia is spending a staggering amount of money building this, and they’re going to supply green energy to their entire country, with more to spare, as well as helping people downstream mitigate droughts (eventually) and flooding (as soon as they start filling the dam). ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/13 "2020-02-11T03:35:00Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Is there any chance that Egypt won’t blame Ethiopia for them and that conflict won’t break out, such as a strike on the dam? Is there any doubt that when the hot dry hits Ethiopia would use the water for its own desperate needs? Let me ask – and then answer – a broader question: is there any chance that conflicts over water in general, particularly in hot dry areas like those mentioned, exacerbated by corresponding conflicts over crop failures and hence massive failure of the food supply – will lead to wars in these regions, and spur waves of attempted mass migration like we’ve never seen before? Some countries are much more generous than others in accepting endangered refugees, but we all have our limits – practical, physical, financial, and political. Those who believe that climate change is no big deal should pay more attention to the central America caravans trying to move into the US now – and for the moment, at least, starvation is not their major problem. Imagine the situation when sheer starvation becomes their major motivation. It’s really ironic – but true – that most countries that will be hardest hit by the deleterious effects of climate change will be the ones least able to afford it or survive it. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/14 "2020-02-11T05:32:49Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Let me ask – and then answer – a broader question: is there any chance that conflicts over water in general, particularly in hot dry areas like those mentioned, exacerbated by corresponding conflicts over crop failures and hence massive failure of the food supply – will lead to wars in these regions, and spur waves of attempted mass migration like we’ve never seen before? Obviously yes. The point of this thread is how _soon_ it could be and a possible first flash point. FWIW [Egypt is moving ahead with solar desal](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/75283/Acwa-Power-may-build-desalination-plants-in-Egypt) some … but maybe not aggressively enough for the likely needs. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/15 "2020-02-11T06:21:59Z")
TBH, Egypt can make a lot of gains in potable water from the Nile just by not polluting the ever-living fuck out of their stretch. ---
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/16 "2020-02-11T13:04:13Z")
I think that war over resources are going to be the norm going forward. Humans are wasteful and don’t slow reproduction - of course we are going to start running out of stuff, but it won’t bother some people as long as their stock portfolio keeps hitting quarterly benchmarks. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/17 "2020-02-11T15:30:38Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Population is not, in any way, in an out-of-control increase and hasn’t been for decades. What?! Where have you been?! LOL [**World Population Growth Not Sustainable**](https://info.populationmedia.org/real-reasons-population-growth-whitepaper?utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&utm_campaign=Population&utm_term=%2Bpopulation%20%2Bgrowth%20rate&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-454967067996&hsa_mt=b&hsa_acc=7272581478&hsa_grp=54072818062&hsa_ad=278226228642&hsa_kw=%2Bpopulation%20%2Bgrowth%20rate&hsa_cam=1454158452&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIm8fXgOfJ5wIVhYbACh24xwZzEAAYASAAEgKtavD_BwE) > [@](#): > > It’s a fact: world population growth remains totally unsustainable – over 230,000 people are added to world population each day. That is a net gain - births minus deaths. But few people understand the true drivers of this increasing world population. Even fewer know how to effectively intervene. > > Long established and widely practiced social norms – low status of women & girls, bias against modern contraception, and large ideal family size – are the strongest drivers rapid growth of the population. If somebody tries to tell you that population growth is “slowing down,” ask them to explain the graphic on the left. You’ll have to go to the web site to see “the graphic on the left”. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/18 "2020-02-11T16:21:17Z")
> [@Ike\_Witt](#): > > I think that war over resources are going to be the norm going forward. Humans are wasteful and don’t slow reproduction - of course we are going to start running out of stuff, but it won’t bother some people as long as their stock portfolio keeps hitting quarterly benchmarks. Sorry, I wasn’t listening, my stock portfolio was hitting its quarterly benchmark. 😉 We’re definitely going to be looking at increasing resource wars over the next half-century. There’s been many studies that have estimated extra deaths from direct effects of climate change, but there have also been a few that have tried to estimate deaths caused by indirect effects. By far, the largest predicted cause of death from indirect effects are climate change inducted wars. It is coming, it is obvious it is coming, but we cannot do anything because jobs (!), the economy (!), profit (!) and something-something draconian social reengineering. Of course, it has been demonstrated that addressing climate change does not need to be an economic disaster. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/19 "2020-02-11T17:14:30Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > is there any chance that conflicts over water in general, particularly in hot dry areas like those mentioned, exacerbated by corresponding conflicts over crop failures and hence massive failure of the food supply – will lead to wars in these regions, and spur waves of attempted mass migration like we’ve never seen before? But we have seen it before, because [it’s already happening](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/a-major-contributor-to-the-syrian-conflict-climate-change). The Syrian crisis of the last decade, with wars and waves of attempted mass migration, has many causes. But a significant one is water shortages exacerbated by climate change. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2020, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685/20 "2020-02-11T17:39:32Z")
> [@Jasmine](#): > > What?! Where have you been?! LOL > > [**World Population Growth Not Sustainable**](https://info.populationmedia.org/real-reasons-population-growth-whitepaper?utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&utm_campaign=Population&utm_term=%2Bpopulation%20%2Bgrowth%20rate&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=kwd-454967067996&hsa_mt=b&hsa_acc=7272581478&hsa_grp=54072818062&hsa_ad=278226228642&hsa_kw=%2Bpopulation%20%2Bgrowth%20rate&hsa_cam=1454158452&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIm8fXgOfJ5wIVhYbACh24xwZzEAAYASAAEgKtavD_BwE) > > You’ll have to go to the web site to see “the graphic on the left”. That is a problem, but if you had checked with Hans Rosling you would had realized that we should not panic. > **[Don’t Panic – The Facts About Population | Gapminder](https://www.gapminder.org/videos/dont-panic-the-facts-about-population/)** > [@](#): > > Using state-of-the-art 3D graphics and the timing of a stand-up comedian, world-famous statistician Professor Hans Rosling presents a spectacular portrait of our rapidly changing world. With seven billion people already on our planet, we often look to the future with dread, but Rosling’s message is surprisingly upbeat. Almost unnoticed, we have actually begun to conquer the problems of rapid population growth and extreme poverty. > > Across the world, even in countries like Bangladesh, families of just two children are now the norm - meaning that within a few generations, the population explosion will be over. A smaller proportion of people now live in extreme poverty than ever before in human history and the United Nations has set a target of eradicating it altogether within a few decades. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/climate-change-wars-water-egypt-and-ethiopia/847685.md?page=2)