I’d just show 'em this table
And both of you are missing the point. You need to compare a specific country’s pop growth compared to it’s resource (primarily water) availability. I did a quick look and Bahrain is both rapidly growing and water-poor.* Those two lines are going to intersect (if they haven’t already) at which point one of the two variables is going to have to change. My guess is that they aren’t going to suddenly find a shit-load of water, so…
and
4. WORLD WATER RESOURCES BY COUNTRY (see Table 4).
I was about to say, what about solar powered desalinization?
Egypt is saying the dam will restrict their water supply and cause problems. Ethiopia is saying the dam will mitigate droughts and flooding in Egypt/Sudan. Could someone elaborate a little more, for example how much water does Egypt think they will lose, is Ethiopia disputing the loss of water downstream, does Egypt dispute the drought/flood mitigation, etc.
~Max
Egypt is wholly dependent of the Nile for everything, literally everything. You can’t over stress the Nile to Egypt’s basic survival (from the dawn of civilization itself to today). Just look at the country, that is 100 million people straddling a damn long river in the middle of a goddamn big desert. Compare that to Ethiopia, they have 110 million people spread over a lush, green, cool, mountainous countryside.
Since most Egyptians live in the north, water issues are even more bad then it looks there. It is a very fragile country and Egypt doesn’t want to rely on upstream countries for its daily survival. But unfortunately they do, and Egypt has little to nothing to offer upstream countries who themselves would like to use the Nile waters for their own self benefit.
Sudan likes the GERD because it will ensure a lack of flooding during Ethiopia’s heavy rainy season, enabling better water and land management. Sudan isn’t as fragile to water issues as Egypt for many geographical reasons
[ul]
[li]it isn’t entirely a desert country[/li][li]it has multiple rivers which come from multiple sources[/li][li]it is too upstream to worry about water scarcity driven by water use by even further upstream countries[/li][/ul]
Also Sudan acknowledges that the GERD is essentially a
Ethiopia wants the GERD for the massive economic/developmental benefits that having Africa’s largest hydro-electrical dam would will reap. However the dam will lower the amount of yearly water Egypt receives (until the reservoir gets fully filled). Egypt wants many things from Ethiopia which Ethiopia is unwilling to provide.
The Egyptians wanted the Ethiopians to make a deal with them before even starting the project which (of course) the Ethiopians ignored making the existence of the GERD a fait accompli.
Egypt also wants Ethiopia to fill its reservoir over many (7-10?) years and to have certain control/veto over the function of the dam to which Ethiopia also finds as wholly unacceptable. Ethiopia is willing to fill the dam over a few years out of neighbourly courtesy, but they will not do anything that would hand over sovereignty to Egypt.
The GERD is a national project for Ethiopia with no external funding, only government bonds and private funds.
…done deal.
I found one source that says Egypt wants at least 40 billion cubic tons of water to come out of the dam per year. A 2017 Telegraph article says Egypt currently receives 55 billion cubic tons per year, out of the annual flow of 88 billion cubic tons. I do not know how large the reservoir is or how long Ethiopia wants to take to fill it up.
Coming from a point of total ignorance, it seems to me that if Ethiopia wants to retain sovereignty over the new reservoir, they had better fill it up without artificially reducing flow to Egypt or Sudan at all. So the reservoir would be filled from Ethiopia’s existing share of the Blue Nile flow. If Ethiopia is going to reduce the water flow to downstream countries, she will need to reach an agreement before commencing operations.
In the spirit of the OP, are there any papers projecting the effects of climate change on the flow of the Blue Nile? I found one that says the water flow will become more unpredictable. I would think a dam would actually help to mitigate those effects. I understand there is a population growth factor when it comes to water consumption, but I don’t see a direct causal relationship between climate change and population growth. I also imagine there might be projections of water consumption per capita that account for climate change, it makes sense to say warmer weather means more water consumption, but being so unfamiliar with the topic I can’t find any. I would imagine that most of consumption is agricultural, though.
~Max
The rub is that Ethiopia has sovereignty over the reservoir, the land, and ultimately the source of the river (which isn’t even named “the Nile” until it enters Sudan. Ethiopians always called it “Black Abay”).
Ethiopia doesn’t need a deal to retain sovereignty over these things; it already holds all the cards due to this geographic reality. However since Egypt is threatening Ethiopia over water rights/access, a deal should be made but Ethiopia is not going to stall function of the GERD waiting for one (stalling function would be a concession of Ethiopian sovereignty and allow delay tactics to be put into play). Ethiopia is also unwilling to allow Egypt to be the sole profiteer of a river that starts and flows from their own country.
I think your first link is a good example of just how far apart Egypt and Ethiopia were/are in regards to the GERD. Egypt (as a compromise remember) offering to control the $4 billion hydro-electrical dam of which Ethiopia has been solely building/financing since 2011…
You mean there isn’t an existing treaty concerning water rights between Egypt/Sudan/Ethiopia? I don’t believe it, especially with the British occupation of Egypt and their love for formal treaties.
A quick search comes up with an article that references a 1902 treaty granting the British exclusive access to water rights of the Blue Nile, signed by Emperor Menelik II of Ethiopia. The reference is this, “[…]Article III provided Britain with exclusive right for the utilization of the Blue Nile and its tributaries.” The same treaty is covered here. According to some random website called Horn Affairs, the text of the treaty reads,
“Article III. His Majesty the Emperor Menelik II, King of Kings of Ethiopia, engages himself towards the Government of His Britannic Majesty not to construct, or allow to be constructed, any work across the Blue Nile, Lake Tsana, or the Sobat which would arrest the flow of their waters into the Nile except in agreement with His Britannic Majesty’s Government and the Government of the Soudan.”
You draw a distinction between the Nile and the Black Abay, but I’m not sure if there is a distinction between the Blue Nile and the Black Abay. Everywhere I look, the Blue Nile is the same body as the Black Abay.
Again, I am not an expert on international law. But generally I think the successive governments of Egypt inherit the British rights and obligations under previous treaties, as Ethiopia inherits her rights and obligations from her imperial incarnation, until such time as a new treaty has voided the existing ones.
~Max
That sounds like an interesting argument, but factually Ethiopia hasn’t beheld herself to that treaty and is plain unlikely to do so. I think the next course of action would be some sort of war?
There are other options. Aside from attempts at reconciliation (such as the failed attempts you mentioned), other options include political/economic sanctions, international pleading, propaganda, covert military actions, and overt military actions.
~Max
In line with your “covert military action” the chief project manager and public face of the GERD Simegnew Bekele was found shot dead in his car two years ago in Addis Ababa in what many conspiracy theorists claim was an assassination (officially labeled a suicide).
But nothing short of strong international sanctions or overt military actions could stop the dam now. Both options seem either extremely unlikely or ultimately catastrophic to Egypt.
There have been treaties between Egypt and Sudan, but Egypt ignored Ethiopia until they began construction of GERD. Guess it kinda sucks that they treated Ethiopia like they don’t exist…
That’s kind of impossible… they can’t fill it without reducing the flow.
Er, there’s no such thing as a “cubic ton”.
Significant volumes are often expressed as cubic meters, each of which - if fresh water - has a mass of one tonne (aka metric ton, which equals 1000 kg).
When I wrote that, I had in mind something like, Ethiopia currently draws say 2 Gm[SUP]3[/SUP]/yr (billion cubic meters per year) of water and the rest is for Sudan and Egypt, so Ethiopia would have to reduce its own consumption to 1 Gm[SUP]3[/SUP]/yr to fill the reservoir the difference of 1 Gm[SUP]3[/SUP]/yr. But it turns out, apparently Ethiopia had signed away their sovereign right to control the river a hundred years ago…
~Max
Yes, you got me. I had things confused after reading different sources.
~Max
Just to be clear. You are aware that Ethiopia doesn’t recognize this lack of sovereignty over the Abay? This is not something that they respect.
OK, sounds reasonable enough. Not the conspiracy, (well maybe the conspiracy), but I mean the possibility of the dam opening within the next year or so.
Back to the thread title, how does climate change factor into this?
DSeid’s original cite said climate change will impact the coastline by soiling farmland with saltwater. It in turn cites an NPR article which quotes a certain Mr. Mohammad al-Raey from the University of Alexandria,
“‘The sea level rise would affect all coasts and all beaches,’ he says, looking out over the brilliant blue waters of the Mediterranean along Egypt’s north coast. ‘The models show the Middle East would increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation.’
[…]
Raey says the effects of hotter weather, including reduced rainfall, would cut agricultural productivity by 15 to 20 percent – a huge blow to a country already struggling to feed its people.”
Also cited is a USAID fact sheet.
Ají de Gallina seemed to respond in part by claiming that the Aswan dam is responsible for most of Egypt’s eroding coastline. No cite was provided, so I did a precursory search. I found a 1988 paper in the Journal of Coastal Research which says that “[o]n average, rates of erosion increased 3 to 5 times” after the first stage of the High Dam was completed in 1964. Notably, that doesn’t include the city of Alexandria, which was thought to be protected from erosion due to its seawall.
I am curious though, as to whether the erosion rates in that paper are skewed by the period before the reservoir reached capacity in 1976.
I am also unsure just how much Dr. Al-Raey’s prediction relies on erosion from rising sea levels as opposed to warmer weather and less rainfall. And then, erosion from the sea is compatible with erosion from the Aswan Dam.
~Max
Yeah, I am aware. Not that my opinion matters, since I’m just a random Joe on the internet, but unilaterally refusing to respect a treaty doesn’t vibe with my idea of international law.
That being said, I think it’s good that Ethiopia will fill the reservoir up over a number of years rather than all at once. At least they aren’t trying to destroy Egypt by diverting the river to the Red Sea - if I remember correctly, this threat was a common refrain back when Mamluks ruled over Egypt.
I’ve been looking for numbers about the proposed water flows. A Foreign Policy article says the new dam would hold 67 billion cubic meters of water, and that Egypt wants a guarantee of at least 40 billion (down from their current 55 billion). Ethiopia responded by offering 31 billion. You can’t expect an agricultural country in the middle of the desert to willingly cut its water consumption by some 56%.
Well, I guess if only about 70% of the water consumed comes from the Blue Nile (I think I read that somewhere), annual per capita water consumption would necessarily drop something like 39%. Still a big hit.
I wonder, what about Lake Nasser? Could that lake be used as a reservoir for Egypt, to offset the shortage, until the new dam is completed?
~Max
The idea that population growth is completely out of control has been pretty thoroughly debunked. The reproductive rate in all countries has shown to go down to manageable levels when they hit 1st world status. The world population will continue to increase in our lifetime but not indefinitely.