I didn’t avoid the cite: it spells out, as you do, that frequency can’t readily be predicted but intensity can – and it then stops short, as you do, of actually bothering to supply the prediction about intensity. You’re wasting yet more time and words on generalities instead of skipping straight to a specific answer.
You talk about an increase in intensity. Your cite says more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes will hit land. I therefore ask: at least how many, on what timetable? What amount is being predicted – such that more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes will prove you right, and fewer will prove you wrong?
You’re silent, and so is your cite. You could end my objection with a one-sentence prediction. You instead offer paragraphs about the prediction.
And again: you do a fine job of saying that Sometimes The Correct Thing Is To Say We Don’t Know, and you add that while the number of upcoming hurricanes is one of them, the intensity of the ones that come will – er, it just sort of trails off there, doesn’t it? With nary a falsifiable claim about intensity in sight?
Good heavens, ten words would do it: more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes will hit land? Very well, then: at least what number X, over the next Y years?