# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 111
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2204 "2016-10-14T11:00:52Z")
By the way, there’s an [interesting article up on 538](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/?ex_cid=2016-forecast)on Evan McMullin’s potential path to the White House. Apparently it’s this: 1.Win Utah 2.Deadlock the Electoral College 3.[del]Profit![/del] Win in the House Only a 1-3% chance, but still a chance. ---
**Author:** ![MacCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maccat/32/216_2.png) [@MacCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MacCat)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2205 "2016-10-14T11:03:59Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > Now Melania is [threatening to sue](http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/10/melania-trump-threatens-to-sue-people-for-reporting-she-talked-to-writer-229775) People magazine for something. Maybe she’ll mention it during her [press conference](http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/09/washington_post_to_trump_wheres_melanias_immigrati.html)? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2206 "2016-10-14T11:11:06Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > By the way, there’s an [interesting article up on 538](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/?ex_cid=2016-forecast)on Evan McMullin’s potential path to the White House. And so the truth is revealed! He’s ex-CIA. Just like Putin is ex-KGB. It’s a stitch-up by the World Illuminatus Conspiracy; we’re doomed! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2207 "2016-10-14T11:17:24Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > It’s tragic, really, that he’s so bad at making deals. I want some celebrity that he will take note of to tweet to him that he’s going to lose, not because it’s rigged, not because of traitorous RNC and not because of biased media, but because he’s a loser and the US population rejects his racist, sexist, fascist vision of the world. Not sure how to fit that into 140 characters… ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2208 "2016-10-14T11:21:24Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > And so the truth is revealed! He’s ex-CIA. Just like Putin is ex-KGB. It’s a stitch-up by the World Illuminatus Conspiracy; we’re doomed! 🙂 You joke, but I remember this exact thing being claimed about Bush Sr who had previously been Director of the CIA. I didn’t notice the New World Order being implemented but then that just goes to show how sneaky these people are. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2209 "2016-10-14T11:23:27Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > I want some celebrity that he will take note of to tweet to him that he’s going to lose, not because it’s rigged, not because of traitorous RNC and not because of biased media, but because he’s a loser and the US population rejects his racist, sexist, fascist vision of the world. > > Not sure how to fit that into 140 characters… Mark Cuban will find a way. (PS: I’m still richer than you.) ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2210 "2016-10-14T11:23:54Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > By the way, there’s an [interesting article up on 538](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/?ex_cid=2016-forecast)on Evan McMullin’s potential path to the White House. Apparently it’s this: > > 1.Win Utah > 2.Deadlock the Electoral College > 3.[del]Profit![/del] Win in the House > > Only a 1-3% chance, but still a chance. Saw that yesterday. It was first tweeted by GOP consultant Rick Wilson (the Cheetoh Jesus guy) who has been so interesting the last few months that, despite having a basically dead account for 8 years, I’ve actually started using twitter on a somewhat regular basis now. The problem I see is that even if Trump falls short in the EV on election night, Trump is still by far the most powerful single person and force within the republican party at the moment. What’s left of the GOP is leaning to the alt-right. If Trump makes it to a House of Reps election, that by itself would be a form of validation by the republican voters who would have almost certainly overwhelmingly supported Trump in order to make the race that close. I don’t see a scenario in which a virtual no-name trumps Trump. The GOP leaders who try that would literally be using a powder keg as a seat and lighting the match. Anything short of an outright victory on election night by Clinton is a victory for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2211 "2016-10-14T11:40:39Z")
Exactly. Whatever happens, the Overton window – the “new normal” – has already shifted, in several ways: the acceptance of ignorance, coarseness, and probably blatant nationalism, to name a few. (I’m mainly referencing asahi’s post 2192, bit it’s an underlying theme of this whole thread) ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2212 "2016-10-14T11:47:20Z")
> [@Crotalus](#): > > Now Melania is [threatening to sue](http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/10/melania-trump-threatens-to-sue-people-for-reporting-she-talked-to-writer-229775) People magazine for something. Apparently printing that Melania had an innocuous encounter with a reporter is “actionable”. That word: innocuous. It sounds like a mean word. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2213 "2016-10-14T11:49:32Z")
If they’ don’t have the balls to act with any decency then I guess it’s up to the people who fund their campaigns to be their conscience. > **[Cut Ties to Donald Trump, Big Donors Urge R.N.C. (Published 2016)](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/us/politics/republican-donors-trump.html?_r=0)** > > Fearing damage to the Republican Party’s image, they called on the national committee to back away from the nominee, with one contributor citing “obvious moral failings.” Long, long overdue, but I’ll gladly take it. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2214 "2016-10-14T12:02:31Z")
> [@Biffster](#): > > That word: innocuous. It sounds like a mean word. > Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Please don’t sue me.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2215 "2016-10-14T12:21:12Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > I just realized that the next debate is in Ne-VAH-duh/Ne-VAAA-duh. Do you suppose Trump will spend the first 20 minutes telling everyone how to pronounce the name? Something that just struck me about his multiple odd pronunciations and his behavior when corrected … Once upon a time I had only read the word “alcove” and for whatever reason in my head had reverse the “c” and the “l” and read it to myself consistently as “aclove” … thing is first I said it out loud that way the person I said it too went what? They corrected me. And I learned what the word actually was. I think Trump has lived his whole formative life with no one correcting him, especially growing up, even on simple things like pronouncing words, a child raised never being told they are doing something wrong, either as a matter of fact or as a matter of ethics behaviors or basic human decency, and living his adult life like that as well. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2216 "2016-10-14T12:25:23Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > [It’s a big enough cult that Obama has responded to claims he’s a literal demon in human form who smells like sulfur.](https://twitter.com/colinjones/status/785980116530638848/video/1) More Divine Smite dice when you hit them! ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2217 "2016-10-14T12:33:39Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Exactly. Whatever happens, the Overton window – the “new normal” – has already shifted, in several ways: the acceptance of ignorance, coarseness, and probably blatant nationalism, to name a few. Yes but you can also argue that Bernie Sanders shifted the overton window in the opposite direction. I’d like to think that he’ll stay active as a mentor and inspiration to a new generation of progressive Democrat politicians. Let’s see. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2218 "2016-10-14T12:50:36Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > I just realized that the next debate is in Ne-VAH-duh/Ne-VAAA-duh. Do you suppose Trump will spend the first 20 minutes telling everyone how to pronounce the name? > [@DSeid](#): > > Something that just struck me about his multiple odd pronunciations and his behavior when corrected … The issue here isn’t that Trump pronounces Nevada a particular way. \*Hijack: There are some proper names—particularly geographic names—that have different pronunciations (or even different names entirely) among different groups. An **exonym** is a name (or pronunciation) used by outsiders. An **endonym** is a name or pronunciation used by insiders. **Neither one is wrong**. Neither one is more correct than the other. They’re just different. In the cases of Nevada, and Oregon, both names have endonymic and economic pronunciations. Nevada: Exonym: [nə 'va də] “nuh VAH duh” Endonym: [nə 'væ də] “nuh VAD uh” Oregon: Exonym: [ˌɔ ɹə 'gɑn] “or ri GONE” Endonym: ['ɔ ɹə gən] 'OR rigg in"\* The issue with the “Nevada” thing is not that Trump uses a “wrong” pronunciation. He’s just using the exonymic pronunciation. The issue is that he’s using the pronunciation issue in a hostile and demeaning way against people whom he’s purportedly trying to persuade to vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![Lok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e8c25b/32.png) [@Lok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lok)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2219 "2016-10-14T13:14:37Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > You joke, but I remember this exact thing being claimed about Bush Sr who had previously been Director of the CIA. I didn’t notice the New World Order being implemented but then that just goes to show how sneaky these people are. Don’t forget that Ford got to be President as payback for the work he did with the Warren Commission and the JFK cover up. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2220 "2016-10-14T13:20:12Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > By the way, there’s an [interesting article up on 538](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/?ex_cid=2016-forecast)on Evan McMullin’s potential path to the White House. Apparently it’s this: > > 1.Win Utah > 2.Deadlock the Electoral College > 3.[del]Profit![/del] Win in the House > > Only a 1-3% chance, but still a chance. Whoa, whoa, whoa, let’s be clear. 538 is absolutely NOT claiming McMullin has a 1-3% chance of becoming President this way. That is an exaggeration of probably two orders of magnitude. They’re saying he has a 1-3% of “making things interesting.” Which would be cool, but then other things have to happen to make him President, all of which further lower his chances: 1. In addition to McMullin winning Utah (they estimate 3.4%) the electoral map must be arranged in such a way that neither Trump nor Clinton wins a majority of electoral votes. This is actually quite unlikely, since it would require Trump pulling off a really enormous comeback but simulataneously losing more ground to McMullin just in Utah, and of course the states must be arranged just right. Honestly right here I think 538 is wildly overestimating McMullin’s chances. In a scenario where Trump somehow makes up at least six points in the national polls, it’s hard to see him not beating McMullin in Utah, as much as Mormons hate Trump. He WAS ahead of McMullin in that poll. McMullin needs Trump to lose more ground to Win Utah, probably… but if Trump loses more ground, Clinton will certainly win the general election. Nonetheless, here’s an EV map where this could happen, with Utah marked as undecided to indicate McMullin: > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/r74zJ)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election This is rather staggeringly unlikely but let’s run with it. 1. The election then goes to the House. In a scenario where Trump catches up this much it’s near-certain the Republicans will hold a majority of states. So enough Republican state delegations have to defect from Trump that no candidate gets a majority. I would guess this is a thousand to one shot. If Trump catches up, Republicans will dutifully sell their country out in favor of their party. The fact Republicans are telling Trump to go to hell now is in part because he is losing. If he’s not losing the sheep will get back in line. 1. Unless a miracle happens and the House decides to end the gridlock by electing McMullin, a backroom deal is struck between the Senate and the House delegations, in which they cannot accept Pence or Kaine as President, but will settle on McMullin. The odds of all this happening? Same as the odds of Lloyd Christmas getting together with Mary Swanson. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2221 "2016-10-14T13:29:22Z")
Oops. Posted this in wrong thread. Duh. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2222 "2016-10-14T13:31:08Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > The issue here isn’t that Trump pronounces Nevada a particular way. … > > … The issue with the “Nevada” thing is not that Trump uses a “wrong” pronunciation. He’s just using the exonymic pronunciation. The issue is that he’s using the pronunciation issue in a hostile and demeaning way against people whom he’s purportedly trying to persuade to vote for him. Sorry, but one … I am an outsider and have always said “nuh VAD uh” … some outsiders pronounce the name in different ways than natives do, but far from all. Two, if natives say the proper way to pronounce the name is one way then that _is_ the correct pronunciation. Cairo IL is properly pronounced KEH-ro and saying KAI-ro is wrong even if most outsiders say it that way (and Cairo GA is KAY-ro). Outsiders saying otherwise are not also correct, they are simply mistaken. Three, this is part of a long line of odd pronunciations he makes. The speculation is why and why his reaction to being corrected even when it insults those he needs to sell himself to. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2223 "2016-10-14T13:39:13Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Whoa, whoa, whoa, let’s be clear. 538 is absolutely NOT claiming McMullin has a 1-3% chance of becoming President this way. That is an exaggeration of probably two orders of magnitude. > > They’re saying he has a 1-3% of “making things interesting.” Which would be cool, but then other things have to happen to make him President, all of which further lower his chances: > > 1. In addition to McMullin winning Utah (they estimate 3.4%) the electoral map must be arranged in such a way that neither Trump nor Clinton wins a majority of electoral votes. This is actually quite unlikely, since it would require Trump pulling off a really enormous comeback but simulataneously losing more ground to McMullin just in Utah, and of course the states must be arranged just right. > > Honestly right here I think 538 is wildly overestimating McMullin’s chances. In a scenario where Trump somehow makes up at least six points in the national polls, it’s hard to see him not beating McMullin in Utah, as much as Mormons hate Trump. He WAS ahead of McMullin in that poll. McMullin needs Trump to lose more ground to Win Utah, probably… but if Trump loses more ground, Clinton will certainly win the general election. > > Nonetheless, here’s an EV map where this could happen, with Utah marked as undecided to indicate McMullin: > > [270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](http://www.270towin.com/maps/r74zJ) > > This is rather staggeringly unlikely but let’s run with it. > > 1. The election then goes to the House. In a scenario where Trump catches up this much it’s near-certain the Republicans will hold a majority of states. So enough Republican state delegations have to defect from Trump that no candidate gets a majority. > > I would guess this is a thousand to one shot. If Trump catches up, Republicans will dutifully sell their country out in favor of their party. The fact Republicans are telling Trump to go to hell now is in part because he is losing. If he’s not losing the sheep will get back in line. > > 1. Unless a miracle happens and the House decides to end the gridlock by electing McMullin, a backroom deal is struck between the Senate and the House delegations, in which they cannot accept Pence or Kaine as President, but will settle on McMullin. > > The odds of all this happening? Same as the odds of Lloyd Christmas getting together with Mary Swanson. So you’re saying there’s a chance. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=110) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=112)