# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/241 "2016-10-05T01:36:10Z")
> [@Enginerd](#): > > You misunderstand the nature of stochastic simulation. Clear? I understand it quite well. I also understand the need for it to relate to reality. Your turn. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/242 "2016-10-05T01:59:04Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I understand it quite well. I also understand the need for it to relate to reality. > > Your turn. Read up on the idea of an “expected value” and get back to all of us. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/243 "2016-10-05T02:00:12Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well thanks for linking up a 404 error anyways. If the internet never forgets howzabout you link to where it’s remembered. > > Eta: though I will say their 404 error message is both lame and stupid. > “What do Hillary Clinton and this link have in common? > They’re both “dead broke.”” Sorry. Thought I linked to the [The Oregonian’s story about it.](http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/gop_claims_victory_in_vp_debat.html) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/244 "2016-10-05T02:02:11Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > Read up on the idea of an “expected value” and get back to all of us. Tell us how 0.2 electoral votes can be an “expected value”. Here’s a hint: In reality, EV’s are integers. ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/245 "2016-10-05T02:09:39Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well thanks for linking up a 404 error anyways. If the internet never forgets howzabout you link to where it’s remembered. > > Eta: though I will say their 404 error message is both lame and stupid. > “What do Hillary Clinton and this link have in common? > They’re both “dead broke.”” I suspect her post referred to the [GOP’s press release congratulating Pence on his victory two hours before the debate began](http://theslot.jezebel.com/gop-congratulates-mike-pence-on-his-debate-victory-hou-1787420005). > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I understand it quite well. I also understand the need for it to relate to reality. > > Your turn. The only person claiming that Silver is predicting 0.2 electoral vote for Gary Johnson is you. Not Silver, not his model, and not “most ardent admirers.” Probabilistic models are used in complex simulations specifically because they’re too complex to be modeled mechanistically. If you insist on taking the results of that suite of simulations, presented as expected values or probabilities, and forcing them into a single discrete scenario, then no, you don’t understand stochastic modeling. ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/246 "2016-10-05T02:10:53Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Tell us how 0.2 electoral votes can be an “expected value”. > > Here’s a hint: In reality, EV’s are integers. No, expected values are not integers. They’re abstract representations of the outcome of a mathematically defined process. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/247 "2016-10-05T02:12:38Z")
Need I repeat my point about losing sight of where the math goes from continuous to discrete? The 0.2 EV projection is right off the 538 presidential polls page. Dunno why you’re denying it, but whatever. Bye. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/248 "2016-10-05T02:40:28Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Need I repeat my point about losing sight of where the math goes from continuous to discrete? No, but you should point out where you fail to understand basic statistics. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/249 "2016-10-05T03:00:12Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Tell us how 0.2 electoral votes can be an “expected value”. > > Here’s a hint: In reality, EV’s are integers. If you flip a coin one time what is the EV of the number of heads you’ll see? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/250 "2016-10-05T03:15:31Z")
[Expected Value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) > [@](#): > > Example 1. Let X represent the outcome of a roll of a fair six-sided die. More specifically, X will be the number of pips showing on the top face of the die after the toss. The possible values for X are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, all equally likely (each having the probability of 1/6). The expectation of X is > > E = 1 \* 1/6 + 2 \* 1/6 + 3 \* 1/6 + 4 \* 1/6 + 5 \* 1/6 + 6 \* 1/6 = 3.5 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/251 "2016-10-05T03:30:59Z")
It’s pretty clear on 538 that the most probable number of EVs for Johnson is 0. I am unsure how this can confuse anyone. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/252 "2016-10-05T03:37:13Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I am unsure how this can confuse anyone. A fundamental misunderstanding of the term expected value. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/253 "2016-10-05T03:44:38Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It’s pretty clear on 538 that the most probable number of EVs for Johnson is 0. I am unsure how this can confuse anyone. The most probably outcome is the mode, not the expected value. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/254 "2016-10-05T03:46:10Z")
Can we take this to GQ already? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/255 "2016-10-05T04:01:45Z")
Well it is a fair cop on 538 that they present what is typically read as a prediction of results. Reporting the statistical expected value is somewhat foolish _in this context_ as that result has exactly zero chance of occurring. That’s not GQ albeit may be IMHO. Would mode be the best thing to actually report? Or the bar that occurs the most frequently? Which is not the mode in this case - in the histogram it looks like the biggest chance is on Clinton 356 to my read but that still an under 1.5% chance ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/256 "2016-10-05T04:19:56Z")
It’s a complex problem to model, and the results of the model are necessarily complex. There’s no way to boil the analysis of 20,000 simulations of 50 states each down to a single number. As soon as you start trying, you lose all the benefits of the probabilistic model. As you say, even the most frequent result has a less than 2% probability. Put yourself in Silver’s place: you can write for sophisticated readers and report the expected values, or you can present a single projected electoral scenario with the caveat that “there’s a better than 98% chance that I’m wrong.” Who would give any credence to the latter? ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/257 "2016-10-05T04:22:08Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Can we take this to GQ already? Please no!😉 ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/258 "2016-10-05T06:43:49Z")
Is everybody using EV to refer to the same thing? (Electoral Votes, Expected Value) ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/259 "2016-10-05T07:56:20Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > Is everybody using EV to refer to the same thing? (Electoral Votes, Expected Value) Indeed, the above posters are using EV to mean two different things. That said, I think **Elvis** is misunderstanding Nate Silver when he says: > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Fractional [electoral vote] totals are not a possible outcome. Therefore they cannot be the most probable. Silver never _claimed_ 0.2 electoral votes was the _most probable_ outcome for Johnson. He claimed that it was the _average_ number of electoral votes Johnson achieved across his simulations. (This is what “expected value” means.) ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 8:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/260 "2016-10-05T08:33:37Z")
I clicked and skimmed and saw that Nate Silver had caused great confusion with something like **EV[ev]** — the expected value of electoral vote count. I guess this EV/ev confusion is yet another reason to get rid of the electoral college. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=14)