# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 130
**Author:** ![Mince](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2584 "2016-10-16T06:33:34Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > … and the fact you say this about Ronald Reagan shows how much a “statesman” is merely a politician who’s been dead for a few years. Oh, did I use “Informed Intellectual” in the plural? I meant “Mondale and the clown in the GOP suit.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2585 "2016-10-16T06:38:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Something interesting that speaks to how, all the noise aside, stable this race has been. > > Back in _May_ I posted [a thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=792874) asking people to bet over/under on Clinton +6 as that was where the polling aggregate was at that time. The group consensus split near 50-50 (54-46 over-under). 538’s PollsOnly now calls it 5.9 and RCP puts it at 5.3 four-way and 6.7 two-way (funny enough averaging 6). > > After all the sturm and drang … physical collapse, and Wikileaks, Gropegate and tax avoidance … the aggregates are in the same place they were and running the same poll here now, five months later, a few weeks away from the actual election, would probably give roughly the same results. > > Huh. +6 does seem to be the equilibrium, although I don’t think Clinton’s done gaining for now. I think her lead could reach double digits before the election, when the clock runs out. If the election was in January, Trump might even have another run at her left, but as we all know the election is not in January. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2586 "2016-10-16T06:47:28Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > Oh, did I use “Informed Intellectual” in the plural? I meant “Mondale and the clown in the GOP suit.” Heh. I’m willing to concede that old Ronnie Ray Gun looks downright adult compared to the current Republican crowd, but he was the one who really pushed the GOP into the ultra-ideological position it still occupies, where it’s political suicide to acknowledge basic reality because it offends one or more of the core constituencies your party is fundamentally addicted to. Basic scientific plausibility? The SDI is literally Star Wars! Pew pew! Massive military spending, all down a rathole. Plus, Mommy likes astrology. Environmentalism? Seen one redwood, you’ve seen 'em all! Yes, he actually said that. Building a pluralistic society? Christianity and AIDS denial! Economic policy which works for everyone? Even his supporters thought his plans were voodoo. Respect for the rule of law? Iran-Contra and Ollie North in a monkey suit! Suck on _that_, responsible government! Trump isn’t unprecedented. He’s the monster they’ve been building for longer than I have been alive, and now they wonder why it cannot function in any kind of orderly and respectful society. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2587 "2016-10-16T06:48:17Z")
Oh. I’d also note that Wang’s longer term meta-margin average going into the peri-convention period was Clinton +4 with the expected +/- to be 3 - i.e. news cycles could reasonably push it up and down 3 but more than that would be unexpected. Interesting that at Clinton’s worst period in the news cycles she was off by 3 from that (to +1), and that now, with a very bad period for Trump, it is still within 3 of that. (Yes it did get higher for a period with the dual hit of a well run Democratic convention and the Trump attack on the Khans, but it did not last.) **addie** , you _may_ be right that it will move back into Khan area before all is done given the … unusual … play now after the two minute warning has gone off. Not sure. My guess is not. If undecideds haven’t been repulsed by Trump yet I do think they will be in the next few weeks. I also though wouldn’t be surprised to see it move back a bit closer to the +4 even before it is all over. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2588 "2016-10-16T07:33:58Z")
[Guess who got caught riding on Trump’s jet?](http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/busted-cnns-corey-lewandowski-tried-to-hide-his-face-saturday-as-he-stepped-off-trump-plane/) You done screwed up hiring this guy, CNN. ---
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2589 "2016-10-16T07:36:41Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Now Trumpy says he wants Clinton drug-tested before the next debate. :rolleyes: Trump is right. Hillary has been coked up in the debates. You can tell from all that sniffing. She’s such a tricksy devil, she uses ventriloquism to make it sound like Trump is sniffing but it really is Hillary sniffing big league. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2590 "2016-10-16T07:43:43Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > I just hope the Secret Service agents keep an extra-close eye on Trump during the third debate. He seems to be becoming unhinged enough to resort to violence. I can see him leaping over the pedestal. > [@DSeid](#): > > I think Hillary would whoop his ass. She’s small but wiry. 🙂 > [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > I suspect she’d have the presence of mind to punch him in the nuts and that would be the end of that. I just hope they frisk Trump beforehand. ---
**Author:** ![Junior\_Spaceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Junior\_Spaceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Junior_Spaceman)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2591 "2016-10-16T07:58:54Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > [Guess who got caught riding on Trump’s jet?](http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/busted-cnns-corey-lewandowski-tried-to-hide-his-face-saturday-as-he-stepped-off-trump-plane/) > > You done screwed up hiring this guy, CNN. Just like Trump knows how to fix the tax laws because he’s been flouting them for decades, he knows all about Media corruption because he’s right at the center of it. ---
**Author:** ![Mince](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2592 "2016-10-16T08:45:47Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > Heh. I’m willing to concede that old Ronnie Ray Gun looks downright adult compared to the current Republican crowd, but he was the one who really pushed the GOP into the ultra-ideological position it still occupies, where it’s political suicide to acknowledge basic reality because it offends one or more of the core constituencies your party is fundamentally addicted to. > [@](#): > > Basic scientific plausibility? The SDI is literally Star Wars! Pew pew! Massive military spending, all down a rathole. Plus, Mommy likes astrology. You have the benefit of years of perspective and other people’s opinion. Not so regarding said topic in 1984. You would have readily dismissed the idea in 1984? > [@](#): > > Environmentalism? Seen one redwood, you’ve seen 'em all! Yes, he actually said that. You’re pitting 1966 against 1984. You’re also confusing the actual statement (and ideal), converting it to the one his opponent adopted at the time. And you’re confusing Reagan’s opinions on merely redwoods at the time with his overall policy on environmentalism. And you’re presuming people can’t learn things between over time. > [@](#): > > Economic policy which works for everyone? Even his supporters thought his plans were voodoo. But is it so wrong to ask such questions, or explore such ideas, even if it costs money? Oh, that’s right, the world needs poor people, to sew our clothing and serve us Big Macs. If everyone were millionaires, candy bars would cost $20,000. > [@](#): > > Respect for the rule of law? Iran-Contra and Ollie North in a monkey suit! Suck on _that_, responsible government! Let me think, what administration adhered judiciously to “Rule of Law:” Huh, that’s a tough one. “Respect for the rule of law” seems like a pretentious, idealistic proposition. And no Democrat has any standing right now to assume the “rule of law” position, since an otherwise would-be criminal is about to assume the Highest Seat. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2593 "2016-10-16T08:49:18Z")
Just shows how far we’ve come and how far we still have to go. Rule of law is still an ideal that we have to live up to, although it would be nice if everyone would agree that we should make it a goal. Some people still fall in love with leaders and want them to just do what THEY think is right, law be damned. ---
**Author:** ![TonySinclair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/49beb7/32.png) [@TonySinclair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TonySinclair)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2594 "2016-10-16T12:14:45Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > “Respect for the rule of law” seems like a pretentious, idealistic proposition. And no Democrat has any standing right now to assume the “rule of law” position, since an otherwise would-be criminal is about to assume the Highest Seat. You seem to be a little bit confused. “Rule of Law” doesn’t mean you lock up people you don’t like; it means you abide by the findings of our justice system. ---
**Author:** ![computergeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e56c9b/32.png) [@computergeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/computergeek)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2595 "2016-10-16T12:45:22Z")
> [@cuauhtemoc](#): > > Is it me, or do people seem to give Ivanka Trump a lot of “benefit of the doubt” when it comes to her total support of her father’s candidacy? > > I’ve seen suggestions that she doesn’t really believe or condone all the horrid stuff coming from the campaign, that she has some ulterior motive or even a kind of “Stockholm syndrome”. > > Why is that? Do we have any evidence that her motives are any more pure than her father’s? Or that she’s not making her own decisions, and is therefore less responsible for them? > > And if we are giving her more credit than she deserves, is it because she’s pretty? Because she’s so much more poised and graceful than her father (takes after her mother in that department, I guess)? Would she get a pass like this if she were plain and awkward? > > Basically I’m saying there’s a slight but perceptible phenomenon of “Ivanka apologism” going on, and it doesn’t quite sit right with me. I initially gave the 3 kids (Ivanka, Jr, and Eric) a pass, but no way do I give them a pass now. The 2 boys have opened their yaps and everyone can see they are just like their dad. Ivanka may give the appearance of being an ok person and not given to fits of crazyness like her dad, but she and her husband are hip-deep in managing her dad’s campaign. Maybe she can’t control her dad 100% like she wants, but hubby seems to want to manage everything about the campaign if you believe the media reports. She’s been trying to downplay her dad’s crazy stuff by offering softer stuff like the parental leave policy Trump announced a couple of months ago, and she’s given speeches trying to pass her dad off as a great guy. If she was truly aghast at the things he’s said (even before the sexual assault accusations), she would have found a way to stay away from the campaign or at least not be so involved in it ---
**Author:** ![StarvingButStrong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/starvingbutstrong/32/335_2.png) [@StarvingButStrong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StarvingButStrong)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2596 "2016-10-16T14:29:59Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > I have already done the first and third (and will again); I will definitely do the second on Nov. 8. I already voted. Strictly speak I could _probably_ have made it to the polls before closing, but why take the chance on some work holdup happening? (Not that there’s any worry about who will take Massachusetts…) ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2597 "2016-10-16T14:35:12Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > Oh, did I use “Informed Intellectual” in the plural? I meant “Mondale and the clown in the GOP suit.” Stephen King’s _It_ was published in 1986: was he riffing of clown fear because of Reagan? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2598 "2016-10-16T14:45:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > +6 does seem to be the equilibrium, although I don’t think Clinton’s done gaining for now. I think her lead could reach double digits before the election, when the clock runs out. I’ll bet $100 against that and give you 2-to-1 odds. It’s possible, but the stability of the race suggests otherwise. If Trump were going to collapse, why would it not have happened by now, after all the reasons given to the electorate to vote against him? Six points (which sounds small but is a certain, not-even-close EV win) is how it’s been for almost the entire post-primary campaign, and in that period of time Trump has done one hundred things that would have torpedoed, say, Reagan’s campaign in 1980. Remember when Trump suggested someone should assassinate Hillary Clinton? I want you to even try to imagine Ronald Reagan doing something like that, or try to imagine what it would have done to his campaign if he’d lost his mind and done it. His chances would have hit zero in one day. George Bush would have refused to continue campaigning. Carter would have been re-elected in a landslide. Yet Trump did it and it’s almost forgotten. It’s the 37th most horrible thing Trump has done. Nope, he’s gonna get a solid 41-42%, if not better. (Precisely what the numbers will be depends how many people abandon Johnson when it matters, but the 6-point split is a pretty good bet.) There is nothing left to change things now. The Wikileaks thing is old and tired and no one cares, really. Trump can’t do anything more to outrage people because he’s done it all. The campaign will drone on for three unpleasant weeks and Clinton will win with an EV map that looks pretty much like the ones on 538 and Princeton right now; the only question is how Arizona will go, really. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2599 "2016-10-16T15:30:29Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > There is nothing left to change things now. The Wikileaks thing is old and tired and no one cares, really. Trump can’t do anything more to outrage people because he’s done it all. The campaign will drone on for three unpleasant weeks and Clinton will win with an EV map that looks pretty much like the ones on 538 and Princeton right now; the only question is how Arizona will go, really. You’re probably right but remember the media has been trying to make this a close horse race for as long as possible (which is why Trump complaining they are biased is ridiculous). They have no reason to hold back now, I’m expecting a few more really nasty things to come out about Trump and hope he drops a point or two. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2600 "2016-10-16T15:39:34Z")
I’m somewhere between adaher and RickJay. I think Trump actually is in the middle of a bit of a free fall with one demographic: previously undecided white women voters and perhaps women more generally. But the republican women who have supported Trump now will probably still consider voting ‘against Hillary’, which is how they will be able to go to sleep at night. The damage will be confined to that demographic. The rest of this election is going to be a battle between vote suppressors on the right and GOTV on the left. And that’s why I am inclined to believe this race could end up being closer than what we think it might be right now in the middle of a terrible press cycle for Trump. It’s getting to the point where Trump is literally the most teflon of teflon candidates in history. In terms of the electoral map, geography, time, and frankly infantile infighting (severing ties with Ohio and Wisconsin GOP officials) by Trump are sinking his chances. ---
**Author:** ![Maastricht](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e57/32.png) [@Maastricht](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maastricht)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2601 "2016-10-16T15:52:28Z")
[Interesting think piece on Vox](http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/15/13286498/donald-trump-voters-race-economic-anxiety). Research shows that Trump resonates with voters for one reson, and one reason only: racism. Not because they’re economically left behind. The next problem becomes: how do you take racism seriously? ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2602 "2016-10-16T15:56:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Just shows how far we’ve come and how far we still have to go. Rule of law is still an ideal that we have to live up to, although it would be nice if everyone would agree that we should make it a goal. Some people still fall in love with leaders and want them to just do what THEY think is right, law be damned. Damn, **adaher** , what has this election done to you? You sound downright reasonable. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2603 "2016-10-16T15:58:11Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > > [@adaher](#): > > > > +6 does seem to be the equilibrium, although I don’t think Clinton’s done gaining for now. I think her lead could reach double digits before the election, when the clock runs out. If the election was in January, Trump might even have another run at her left, but as we all know the election is not in January. > > I’ll bet $100 against that and give you 2-to-1 odds. It’s possible, but the stability of the race suggests otherwise. If Trump were going to collapse, why would it not have happened by now, after all the reasons given to the electorate to vote against him? > > Six points (which sounds small but is a certain, not-even-close EV win) is how it’s been for almost the entire post-primary campaign, and in that period of time Trump has done one hundred things that would have torpedoed, say, Reagan’s campaign in 1980. Remember when Trump suggested someone should assassinate Hillary Clinton? I want you to even try to imagine Ronald Reagan doing something like that, or try to imagine what it would have done to his campaign if he’d lost his mind and done it. His chances would have hit zero in one day. George Bush would have refused to continue campaigning. Carter would have been re-elected in a landslide. Yet Trump did it and it’s almost forgotten. It’s the 37th most horrible thing Trump has done. > > Nope, he’s gonna get a solid 41-42%, if not better. (Precisely what the numbers will be depends how many people abandon Johnson when it matters, but the 6-point split is a pretty good bet.) > > There is nothing left to change things now. The Wikileaks thing is old and tired and no one cares, really. Trump can’t do anything more to outrage people because he’s done it all. The campaign will drone on for three unpleasant weeks and Clinton will win with an EV map that looks pretty much like the ones on 538 and Princeton right now; the only question is how Arizona will go, really. IMO there \*is \*a window of opportunity for Trump to drop a few more percent per **adaher**. But it’d take something really colossal per **RickJay** : If he physically attacks Clinton at the debate and is subdued by the SS on world-wide TV. If at some Trump rally he incites a full-on riot and the Trumpees kill somebody nearby. If some tapes appear of him totally trashing all forms of Christianity and he says something like “Christian losers and fools who believe in that garbage.” “I’ve totally duped them for my own gain.” “I’m bigger and Greater than Jesus ever was.”, etc. Those are the scale of things that \*could \*peel away some additional fraction of his current support. But that’s about it. More rape allegations, or even a murder allegation, won’t move the needle. For her part, Clinton \*might \*be able to move the needle by immediately agreeing w Senate leadership on a binding agreement on specific named centrist Supreme Court nominees for the duration of her term. The one reason relatively sane Rs have for voting Trump is the fear (not totally unreasonable) that a D presidency could pack the Supreme Court leftish for a couple decades to come. If that fear could be credibly removed that \*might \*eliminate a lot of the “Sane but voting for Trump” voters. Those folks are still voting a straight R ticket otherwise. But if they can be persuaded to abstain on Trump that’s good enough to move his needle down a meaningful chunk. I’m \*not \*advocating she try this. In a sense that’s negotiating with terrorists and hostage-takers. And as more and more of the vote is already in the can each day between now and Nov 8th it becomes increasingly ineffective as a political tactic while still having a chilling effect on actual D policy effectiveness post-election. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=129) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=131)