# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 132
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2624 "2016-10-16T18:20:27Z")
SNL’s version of Debate 2: [- YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ) ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2625 "2016-10-16T18:24:06Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > She can’t have a better chance of taking Texas because she has a 0% chance of taking Texas. Per 538, she currently has a 13.9% chance of taking Texas in polls only. Very unlikely, but not zero. That’s actually better than Trump’s current chances of taking the general election (13.8%). So by your criterion, Trump has zero chance of winning the general. ---
**Author:** ![Mince](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2626 "2016-10-16T18:51:02Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Per 538, she currently has a 13.9% chance of taking Texas in polls only. Very unlikely, but not zero. > > That’s actually better than Trump’s current chances of taking the general election (13.8%). So by your criterion, Trump has zero chance of winning the general. Exactly. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2627 "2016-10-16T19:02:35Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > Exactly. But that’s wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Mince](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ecd19e/32.png) [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2628 "2016-10-16T19:04:09Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > But that’s wrong. It won’t be in three weeks. ---
**Author:** ![oft\_wears\_hats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7993a0/32.png) [@oft\_wears\_hats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/oft_wears_hats)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2629 "2016-10-16T19:05:01Z")
> [@AnalogSignal](#): > > SNL’s version of Debate 2: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ) [Trump’s response](http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-saturday-night-live-229852). Aww, did widdle Trumpy-wumpy get his widdle feewings hurt? So sad! > [@](#): > > “Watched ‘Saturday Night Live’ hit job on me. Time to retire the boring and unfunny show. Alec Baldwin portrayal stinks. Media rigging election!” the Republican nominee wrote. You mean the “boring, unfunny show” that you agreed to host a year ago? That show? It’s like he can’t just say “I disagree” or “I don’t like it” or “they’re assholes”. It always has to be “they’re jealous” or “they’re failing” or “they’re boring”. He’s so fucking pathetic. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2630 "2016-10-16T19:07:03Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > It won’t be in three weeks. Of course the probability of something happening is 100% after it’s happened.😉 You’re also assuming that there will be no more shifts in the polls in the next 3 weeks. Three weeks ago Clinton had a 24% chance of winning Arizona, and now she’s at 51%. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2631 "2016-10-16T19:07:28Z")
> [@AnalogSignal](#): > > SNL’s version of Debate 2: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhpHp31ozxQ) I’m loving SNL’s election skits this year. Especially the fake Trump ad about he supports women’s right to guns to defend themselves. It’s a little weird that none of the SNL cast are in it. And also that it airs outside of SNL for some reason. Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2632 "2016-10-16T19:08:33Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > That’s actually better than Trump’s current chances of taking the general election (13.8%). So by your criterion, Trump has zero chance of winning the general. An interesting line in a [538 article](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-any-precedent-for-a-trump-comeback/) caught my eye the other day. > [@](#): > > As with any study of modern elections, we’re limited by sample size. That’s one reason that the FiveThirtyEight models give Trump roughly a 15 percent chance of winning instead of zero. In other words, yeah, even 538 (or at least that particular writer) thinks that Trump probably has a zero percent chance. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2633 "2016-10-16T19:29:42Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > I’m loving SNL’s election skits this year. Especially the fake Trump ad about he supports women’s right to guns to defend themselves. It’s a little weird that none of the SNL cast are in it. And also that it airs outside of SNL for some reason. Trump has to hate: > **[Donald Trump thinks SNL is rigging the election and should be canceled](https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/16/media/donald-trump-snl/index.html)** > > Donald Trump thinks that even "Saturday Night Live" is part of a vast media conspiracy to bring down his presidential candidacy. [QUOTE=El Trompo] Watched Saturday Night Live hit job on me.Time to retire the boring and unfunny show. Alec Baldwin portrayal stinks. Media rigging election! [/QUOTE] No wonder he sees infotainment places like FOX and Infowars as serious news, but it shows once again how vindictive and a waste of time and resources Trump will get into if he becomes president. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2634 "2016-10-16T19:45:23Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > In other words, yeah, even 538 (or at least that particular writer) thinks that Trump probably has a zero percent chance. Another way to put it is: If the polls are correct, Clinton has a 100% chance of winning. What is the chance that the polls are not correct? We think there’s a 15% chance that the polls are off enough that Trump will actually win. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2635 "2016-10-16T19:56:16Z")
HRC is 99.9% winning in CA, according to 538. Not even NY is higher (they are at 99.7%), although that is certainly within the margin of error. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2636 "2016-10-16T20:11:31Z")
> [@Mince](#): > > You have the benefit of years of perspective and other people’s opinion. Not so regarding said topic in 1984. You would have readily dismissed the idea in 1984? A lot of scientists did. A lot of public intellectuals did, and they made their case in public. I would have had a fighting chance at being against SDI as a huge waste of money had I been of age in 1984. > [@](#): > > You’re pitting 1966 against 1984. You’re also confusing the actual statement (and ideal), converting it to the one his opponent adopted at the time. And you’re confusing Reagan’s opinions on merely redwoods at the time with his overall policy on environmentalism. And you’re presuming people can’t learn things between over time. OK, Reagan appointed James Watt Secretary of the Interior. Does _that_ burnish his environmentalist credentials? > [@](#): > > But is it so wrong to ask such questions, or explore such ideas, even if it costs money? Oh, that’s right, the world needs poor people, to sew our clothing and serve us Big Macs. If everyone were millionaires, candy bars would cost $20,000. This is so economically incoherent it isn’t an argument for or against anything at all. > [@](#): > > Let me think, what administration adhered judiciously to “Rule of Law:” > > Huh, that’s a tough one. “Respect for the rule of law” seems like a pretentious, idealistic proposition. And no Democrat has any standing right now to assume the “rule of law” position, since an otherwise would-be criminal is about to assume the Highest Seat. Ah, the old “What your candidate is alleged to have done is much worse than what mine is known to have done!” tactic. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2637 "2016-10-16T20:18:37Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > HRC is 99.9% winning in CA, according to 538. Not even NY is higher (they are at 99.7%), although that is certainly within the margin of error. And there could be no better description of the concept of “margin of error” than these two facts. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2638 "2016-10-16T20:37:50Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > That phrase usually refers to killing a person. Still might apply. :smack: Did not mean to imply that at all (esp. if it obscured my actual point)… ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2639 "2016-10-16T20:40:38Z")
Trump and his supporters don’t give a shit about anyone but themselves. That those that feel they are economically challenged think that a rich man (born on third base with a silver spoon in his mouth) that is also bad at business is going to do anything but help himself shows just how uniformed his supporters are. Perhaps all his supporters wish they where also born with a billon in their pocket. And that trump will simply open up manufacturing/mining jobs just by getting the supervisor to open the gate to the factory. They think it’s that simple. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2640 "2016-10-16T20:51:25Z")
Pence is still not getting the memos from HQ. He said on one of the Sunday talk shows that he and Trump will live by the election results. Trump’s surrogates (i.e., Giuliani), are still trying to rely on the proven liar, self-proclaimed boy pimp for their eyewitness proof that one of the alleged encounters never happened. [Jake Tapper didn’t buy it.](http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/jake-tapper-crushes-giuliani-for-citing-former-pimp-guy-as-witness-against-trump-sexual-assault/) [Pence’s Indiana State Police raided a voter registration office and confiscated over 40,000 unprocessed registrations, endangering the voting rights of thousands of Indiana citizens.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mike-pence-voter-suppression_us_58027076e4b0e8c198a87ffb) ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2641 "2016-10-16T20:52:26Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > An interesting line in a [538 article](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-any-precedent-for-a-trump-comeback/) caught my eye the other day. > > In other words, yeah, even 538 (or at least that particular writer) thinks that Trump probably has a zero percent chance. There’s been a persistent criticism of 538 this year that their model is set to be way too sensitive. If you look at [a graph of the 538 polls only model vs prediction markets](http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/PredictWise0161013a.png), you can see much wilder swings. Even compared to other [poll](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html) [aggregators](http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/president), 538 is far more sensitive. Remember, all of 538’s predictions are untestable except at the point the election actually occurs. The way the model is set up, it starts off with extremely high variance which slowly whittles it’s way down to election day. Whether this was done out of a good hearted desire to accurately model truth or a subconscious pressure to garner more pageviews, it’s had the effect of making this race seem much more like a rollercoaster. Personally, I’ve found following prediction markets to be far more informative than poll aggregators. The prediction markets didn’t take Trump seriously during the primaries until February even though all the media was melting down about it far before. The prediction markets correctly interpreted Trump’s convention bounce as not a big deal but that the Access Hollywood tapes were. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2642 "2016-10-16T21:30:50Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > …[Pence’s Indiana State Police raided a voter registration office and confiscated over 40,000 unprocessed registrations, endangering the voting rights of thousands of Indiana citizens.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mike-pence-voter-suppression_us_58027076e4b0e8c198a87ffb) That’s pretty awful. Hope they drag him off to court ASAP. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/2643 "2016-10-16T21:35:59Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Pence is still not getting the memos from HQ. He said on one of the Sunday talk shows that he and Trump will live by the election results. Pence wants a political life after Trump. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=131) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=133)