# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![raventhief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/raventhief/32/4_2.png) [@raventhief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raventhief)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/321 "2016-10-06T02:56:28Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > "[Trump threatens to sue over ‘nasty’ campaign ads](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/299473-trump-threatens-to-sue-over-nasty-campaign-ads) > > … > > They’re spending hundreds of millions of dollars on false commercials, and it’s a disgrace. So what we’ll do, I guess we’ll sue them. Let’s sue them." I wnder if this is the ad that he is so upset about. > **[Clinton's new ad will remind you how awful Trump has been to veterans](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/hillary-clinton-ad-veteran/)** > > "He insulted all of our military." ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/322 "2016-10-06T03:00:52Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Ohio is now the lightest of blues. Come on Iowa! > > Come Sunday, I’ll be vacationing at the home of my very conservative sister and BIL - in FLORIDA! How crappy of a houseguest would I be if I asked them to turn on the debate?! 😉 Eliza Doolittle (conservative icon): “Hurricanes Hardly Happen”. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/323 "2016-10-06T03:05:48Z")
[No Donald Trump is not dead.](http://www.snopes.com/false-donald-trump-has-died-possible-heart-attack/) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/324 "2016-10-06T03:08:38Z")
> [@bienville](#): > > … This race was never close. Even Trump’s post-convention bump hardly did him any good. Hillary wasn’t seeing any trouble until she fell. Then the polls went crazy for a few weeks but now that we’re through the first debate she’s back up to where she had been before the fall. > > Hillary’s “problem with the polls” is that she caught pneumonia and fell down. > Now that that nonsense is in the rear view mirror, she’s doing fine. Not to put too fine a point on it but Wang has been right the whole time. This is a low volatility race. His baseline meta-margin was about Clinton +4 and it was pretty much expected to travel up and down 3 from that transiently driven by news cycles (like the Khan attacks one way and Clinton’s illness the other) but center of gravity that it would return to was near that +4. So here we are … 538’s PollsOnly calling it +4.6, NowCast as +5.2 and Wang’s slower to move meta-margin at +3.1. It aint over. Odd things can still happen. But the panic some have cycled through here based on news cycle noise has been impressive. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/325 "2016-10-06T03:12:26Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [No Donald Trump is not dead.](http://www.snopes.com/false-donald-trump-has-died-possible-heart-attack/) Wow - never even heard anyone say that he was. Pretty realistic image, though, in the Snopes article. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/326 "2016-10-06T03:37:20Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [No Donald Trump is not dead.](http://www.snopes.com/false-donald-trump-has-died-possible-heart-attack/) I have to wonder if this will depress turnout among his base. They’re not exactly conversant with the real world, and likely consider Snopes to be a Far-Left Plot to Destroy America. > [@running\_coach](#): > > For someone who is so proud of being not politically correct, he sounds like he wants a safe place. This is extremely common among people who claim that other people get offended too easily: They want to offend others, but once you offend them, well, that’s just too much! That’s terrible! You need to be brought to heel, _or else_. They’re the ones who are accustomed to having an “_or else_”, after all; they’re the ones the world (or at least our culture) used to coddle and protect from anything seriously offensive, while allowing them to offend others with impunity. Now that their behavior has consequences, and the others can offend them without being slapped down instantly, well, the world offends them, and they need a safe space. Everyone needs a safe space sometimes. What annoys is when people are hypocritical about it, and especially when they try to deny to others things they jealously guard for themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/327 "2016-10-06T03:39:18Z")
Being an asshole from California who is not effected by this, I hope Hurricane Matthew doesn’t have any effect on the election. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/328 "2016-10-06T03:44:45Z")
> [@raventhief](#): > > I wnder if this is the ad that he is so upset about. > > [Hillary Clinton’s New Ad Will Remind You How Awful Trump Has Been to Veterans – Mother Jones](http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/hillary-clinton-ad-veteran) Don the Con seems to be very angry about people playing back what he said. I’m getting this image of Don as Dr. Strangelove. While tweeting his left hand is trying to keep his right hand from typing. When he hits send, he stands in front of the mirror and his right hand tries to keep his left hand from slapping himself. Then he stumbles back to his phone and cries out “Mein Putin, I can Tweet!” ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/329 "2016-10-06T03:53:16Z")
[Is Bill Clinton intentionally trying to trash Hillary’s election?](http://www.weeklystandard.com/bill-clinton-calls-consequences-of-obamacare-craziest-thing-in-the-world/article/2004693) ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/330 "2016-10-06T04:02:40Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Not to put too fine a point on it but Wang has been right the whole time. This is a low volatility race. His baseline meta-margin was about Clinton +4 and it was pretty much expected to travel up and down 3 from that transiently driven by news cycles (like the Khan attacks one way and Clinton’s illness the other) but center of gravity that it would return to was near that +4. So here we are … 538’s PollsOnly calling it +4.6, NowCast as +5.2 and Wang’s slower to move meta-margin at +3.1. > > It aint over. Odd things can still happen. But the panic some have cycled through here based on news cycle noise has been impressive. The problem with Wang is that his aggregation was out of touch with nearly everyone else. I don’t mind that the prediction doesn’t move–it shouldn’t, and that’s why I see 538 as flawed. The best predictions stay as steady as they can, which means you should have things move slowly. But the aggregator should respond quickly. His doesn’t. His lower volatility is because his entire system is slower moving. Maybe that’s a superior measure. But I hate how he then uses that to shit on others. He even pulled a Trumpian “sad” about Nate Silver in the comments, just because someone quoted his tweet about how the VP debate might play on SNL. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/331 "2016-10-06T04:19:12Z")
[Trump is touting a Reuters poll on Twitter saying he’s ahead in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Georgia.](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/783808918824681472) He also claims leads in [Pennsylvania](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/783880036172623873) and [Virginia](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/783881566510546944) ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/332 "2016-10-06T04:36:07Z")
The [actual Reuters site](http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/) puts Clinton up by 40 to 33% over Trump nationally. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/333 "2016-10-06T04:39:03Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [Trump is touting a Reuters poll on Twitter saying he’s ahead in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Georgia.](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/783808918824681472) > He also claims leads in [Pennsylvania](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/783880036172623873) > > and [Virginia](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/783881566510546944) You notice how his graphic people tilt Clinton’s name slightly? I’m surprised they don’t embed a sad trombone when you mouse over her name. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/334 "2016-10-06T05:03:55Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > … the aggregator should respond quickly … Why? Do you think that within 538 NowCast is intrinsically superior to PollsPlus because it moves quickly and bigger and PollsPlus moves slowly and less? Wang’s method is based on only state polls and can only move as state polls come in. Yes, as a result it moves less. Is that reduction of noise or reduction of signal? His approach also does not come up with an expected value but uses [a polynomial method](http://election.princeton.edu/faq/#metamargin) to come up with a median value, which apparently also decreases the volatility. > [@](#): > > The Meta-Analysis doesn’t actually calculate the probability of every combination of states one at a time. … > > … Instead, the Meta-Analysis uses an overlooked method to calculate the probability of getting an exact number of electoral votes, covering all ways of reaching that number given the individual state win probabilities. This is a much easier problem – it can be solved in less than a second. … > > … a properly done calculation reduces noise. This, in turn, reduces variation – and opportunities for commentary. Most media organizations want more commentary, not less. … ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/335 "2016-10-06T05:11:19Z")
Mr. Trump just lost a significant number of votes here in Nevada, i think:[ > [@](#): > > 7:43 p.m. > > New York native Donald Trump is lecturing his supporters in Nevada that their state is correctly pronounced “Neh-VAH-da.” > > The Republican presidential candidate performed an exaggerated form of his preferred pronunciation from the stage of a rally in Reno. He declared that “nobody says it the other way.” But the confused silence from the crowd mixed with a few shouts of disagreement indicated that quite a few Nevadans pronounce their home state “Neh-VAD-uh.” > > American Bridge, a group that supports Hillary Clinton, immediately put up a web video declaring that Trump was “looking like an idiot” for getting the name wrong. ]([http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US\_CAMPAIGN\_2016\_THE\_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-10-05-21-27-57](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CAMPAIGN_2016_THE_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-10-05-21-27-57))People everywhere take names seriously. What Mr. Trump did will piss a lot of people off. How do you think he’d react if someone called him Donald Drumpf and then told him “no, you’re wrong; your name is Drumpf”? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/336 "2016-10-06T05:46:29Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Mr. Trump just lost a significant number of votes here in Nevada, i think:[url=[http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US\_CAMPAIGN\_2016\_THE\_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-10-05-21-27-57](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CAMPAIGN_2016_THE_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-10-05-21-27-57)]People everywhere take names seriously. What Mr. Trump did will piss a lot of people off. > > How do you think he’d react if someone called him Donald Drumpf and then told him “no, you’re wrong; your name is Drumpf”? :dubious: I can’t wait for Language Log to get a hold of this, if only so I can understand exactly how Trump’s mispronouncing a very simple, straightforward name. More seriously: This is pathological. This is a sign of some underlying pathology. It makes no fucking sense, it’s hurting him, and yet he’s still doing it. It’s the political equivalent of fecal finger-painting, or hoarding. He can’t be wrong, and he will demand he’s not wrong well past the point of those demands being consistent with a fully-formed adult personality. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/337 "2016-10-06T06:13:50Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > His approach also does not come up with an expected value but uses [a polynomial method](http://election.princeton.edu/faq/#metamargin) to come up with a median value, which apparently also decreases the volatility. I think Wang’s explanation of why other sites don’t calculate the probability in that way is rather unfair: > [@](#): > > Why don’t other projection sites use your approach? > > Three reasons. > > First, the Meta-Analysis is unlike, say, fantasy baseball, where a lot of enjoyment comes from thinking about individual scenarios. We take no interest in specific scenarios; we want the median outcome that takes into account all possibilities. This gives the most precise possible answer, but it lends itself poorly to color commentary. > > Second, the treatment is somewhat mathematical. Hobbyists at other sites may not have the expertise to take the polynomial shortcut, which is made possible by the fact that the Electoral College follows a relatively simple system in which EV are added up. Certain aspects of the Meta-Analysis are original and may someday be published. > > Third, a properly done calculation reduces noise. This, in turn, reduces variation – and opportunities for commentary. Most media organizations want more commentary, not less. So basically, Wang thinks his competitors either lack “expertise”, or are intentionally sacrificing accuracy to give themselves more opportunities for “commentary”. This omits a fourth reason, which is that Wang’s polynomial approach treats the probabilities of winning each state as independent, and some of his competitors (notably Nate Silver) don’t consider this a valid approach. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/338 "2016-10-06T06:28:28Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > _ **SNIP** _ > This is pathological. This is a sign of some underlying pathology. It makes no fucking sense, it’s hurting him, and yet he’s still doing it. It’s the political equivalent of fecal finger-painting, or hoarding. He can’t be wrong, and he will demand he’s not wrong well past the point of those demands being consistent with a fully-formed adult personality. Pardon, but did you _ **just now** _ tune in? It’s Trump. Yeah, everything you ask is correct. I only ask because up until now I counted you among those who paid attention. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/339 "2016-10-06T06:33:32Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > This omits a fourth reason, which is that Wang’s polynomial approach treats the probabilities of winning each state as independent, and some of his competitors (notably Nate Silver) don’t consider this a valid approach. The fact remains, however, that Wang’s methods are accurate when it comes to predicting outcomes: > [@](#): > > In 2004, Wang was one of the first to aggregate US Presidential polls using probabilistic methods.\[1\] [snip] Wang’s calculation, based on polls only, ended up precisely at the actual electoral outcome, Bush 286, Kerry 252 EV. [snip] His statistical analysis in 2012 correctly predicted the presidential vote outcome in 49 of 50 states and even the popular vote outcome of Barack Obama’s 51.1% to Mitt Romney’s 48.9%.\[2\] That year, the Princeton Election Consortium also correctly called 10 out of 10 close Senate races and came within a few seats of the final House outcome. > **[Sam Wang (neuroscientist)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Wang_%28neuroscientist%29)** > > Samuel "Sam" Sheng-Hung Wang (born 1967) is a Taiwanese-American professor, neuroscientist, psephologist and author. He is known as the co-author of the books Welcome to Your Brain and Welcome to Your Child's Brain, as well as the Princeton Election Consortium psephology website. Wang also gives talks about child brain development, autism, politics, and gerrymandering on television and radio, to academic audiences and for the general public. > Wang was raised in Riverside, California. His paren... Ultimately, disagreement about these things is reasonable. It’s good, in fact; it gives everyone a chance to sharpen their tools and it gives us spectators a chance to see how close things are by comparing a range of rational people all analyzing the same data. It’s even reasonable to differ in the face of both methods performing well in an objective sense. Wang might be playing up the disagreement in this context, but in every other respect his website is drama-free and math-heavy, and it’s a constant wonder to observe such a simple model get it right time after time. I mean, it’s almost like looking at the evidence is a good way to predict the future… * * * 1. 10 2. 13 ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/340 "2016-10-06T06:34:37Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Pardon, but did you _ **just now** _ tune in? It’s Trump. > > Yeah, everything you ask is correct. > > I only ask because up until now I counted you among those who paid attention. Hey, I get a sense of wonder every time I look at a rainbow, too. Some things don’t change. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=18)