# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 171
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3404 "2016-10-24T14:30:34Z")
> [@Honey](#): > > Trump said in a speech yesterday “We’re doing well with women, and I hate to tell the men this, but if I could, I’d swap you out with women” > > I’m sure you would, asshole. The woman would put you in. He’s just going with what he feels. ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3405 "2016-10-24T14:33:01Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > He’s just going with what he feels. Groping blindly, as it were. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3406 "2016-10-24T15:27:54Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Polls do not attempt to adjust for partisan identification. The party anyone claims is not a demographic but is a result or finding of the polls themselves. > > Imagine this scenario: a poll says that 50% of those polled will vote for Clinton and a Trump supporter says “wait, that’s skewed. The poll should balance out and ask an equal number of Clinton and Trump supporters.” That’s essentially what people are doing any time they argue that a poll should ask an equal number of people who identify with a party. The fact that more people are telling the pollsters that they identify with a party is something the poll found, not something the poll designed. I partly agree with that. However none but the most naive critics of polls would say the sample has to be equal numbers of self identified Democrats and Republicans, and of course not 50-50 since a lot less than 100% of voters identify as either D or R. The issue is that a sample which turns out by chance significantly higher proportion of Republicans, say, than whatever the average is, while definitely a result of the particular poll, might in part be a result telling you which way the sample is randomly skewed. IOW assume the 95%-tile ‘MOE’ is +/-3%, it might indicate your sample is closer to one side of that range than the other. The problem and debate about ‘correcting’ for it is some of the change from the benchmark R/D self identification is due to who is ahead in the election (people who call themselves Democrats when they prefer the Democrat and vice versa), or which side is more energized for their members to pass the Likely Voter screen. IOW some of the skew might be a result of which party is actually running the winning campaign, and it’s false to ‘correct’ for that. The problem, or art of it, is that you don’t know how much of each of those factors is at play. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3407 "2016-10-24T16:30:41Z")
> [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > …Since Trump has stated that one reason to vote for him is that voting for Clinton is the same as voting for another four years of Obama, I find it interesting that Conway apparently sees such a view is an advantage for Clinton. Sounds like maybe she needs another day off. > [@running\_coach](#): > > He’s just going with what he feels. > [@silenus](#): > > Groping blindly, as it were. What a pussy. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3408 "2016-10-24T16:38:46Z")
_I love little pussy, her coat is so warm And if I don’t grope her, she won’t break my face!_ ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3409 "2016-10-24T17:10:45Z")
FTR, for those who didn’t look at [the full ABC News poll](http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a12016ElectionTrackingNo1.pdf), there’s lots of interesting data in the summary table. Here’s one way to summarize it: 😉 Women mostly support Hillary, but uneducated women tend to support Trump. College-educated women support Hillary strongly. As a demographic, stupid people (as measured by lack of education) tend to support Trump, with overwhelming Trump support among stupid white men. Somewhat surprisingly, an all-white population overall would give Trump a slight edge, but blacks and Hispanics totally hate his guts. The categories of “non-white”, “blacks”, and “Hispanics” support Hillary by landslide margins. ```auto Vote preference among likely voters Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein Oct. 22 Clinton-Trump diff. All 50-38- 5- 2% +12 pts. Men 44-41- 8- 3 +3 Women 55-35- 3- 2 +20 Whites 43-47- 5- 1 -4 Nonwhites 68-14- 6- 5 +54 Blacks* 82- 3- 2- 5 +79 Hispanics* 63-25- 9- 1 +38 Democrats 89- 5- 2- 1 +84 Independents 45-37- 8- 4 +8 Republicans 8-83- 6- 1 -75 No degree 45-42- 5- 3 +3 College graduates 57-32- 6- 2 +25 White men 35-52- 7- 2 -17 White women 50-43- 3- 1 +7 White college grads 52-36- 7- 1 +16 White non-graduates 36-55- 3- 2 -19 Among whites: Men, no degree 29-60- 5- 2 -31 Men, college grads 42-42-10- 2 0 Women, no degree 42-51- 2- 2 -9 Women, college grad 62-30- 5- 0 +32 *Combines Oct. 22 and Oct. 13 polls for sufficient sample size. ``` ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3410 "2016-10-24T17:13:11Z")
You know, some people can’t afford higher education rather than being too stupid for it. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3411 "2016-10-24T17:21:57Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You know, some people can’t afford higher education rather than being too stupid for it. Ok, then the demographic is “ignorant white men.” ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3412 "2016-10-24T17:27:23Z")
“Non-college educated” seems to cover it nicely, and not even be insulting. Here’s AOL News on the latest good polling news for HRC: [Trump's poll numbers dive as GOP stronghold Texas comes into play](http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10/24/donald-trump-polling-fails-could-lose-texas-to-hillary-clinton/21590032/) ---
**Author:** ![gaffa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e68b1a/32.png) [@gaffa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gaffa)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3413 "2016-10-24T17:29:15Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You know, some people can’t afford higher education rather than being too stupid for it. …and some of us are self-educated. I have a GED, and the only time it became an issue was when the company for which I was consulting wished to hire me full time, and their pay scale was determined by college attainments. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3414 "2016-10-24T17:30:16Z")
> [@](#): > > …Here’s AOL News on the latest good polling news for HRC: You have to have Netscape Navigator. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3415 "2016-10-24T17:30:30Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You know, some people can’t afford higher education rather than being too stupid for it. Sounds like a societal problem that won’t be fixed by electing more Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![gaffa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e68b1a/32.png) [@gaffa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gaffa)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3416 "2016-10-24T17:34:29Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > How strange that this shocking smoking gun has only been mentioned by some rando on twitter. Wonder why that is? Presumably the major news organizations, which have access to the Twitter “firehose” will be able to check the backlog of since deleted Tweets and verify it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3417 "2016-10-24T17:34:29Z")
> [@gaffa](#): > > …and some of us are self-educated. I have a GED, and the only time it became an issue was when the company for which I was consulting wished to hire me full time, and their pay scale was determined by college attainments. And some guys attended college largely to keep from being drafted, and then failed their pre-induction physical, and had a stamp on their butt saying “No, Uncle Sam does not want you!” And then found that their academic motivation was severely impacted, and drifted into a life of sex, drugs, and rock 'n roll. Or so I’ve heard. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3418 "2016-10-24T17:36:29Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You know, some people can’t afford higher education rather than being too stupid for it. That’s true, and in case you couldn’t tell from the tone, the commentary was somewhat facetious. Nevertheless there’s undoubtedly a correlation between education (formal or otherwise – but the formal kind is easier to categorize) and what a person knows about the world, and also (in the spirit of Dunning-Kruger) being self-aware enough to understand the need to be factually informed. And this does seem to correlate with who voters choose to support. Do you really doubt that Trump supporters, as a group, would turn out to be the least informed and least capable of justifying their choice in policy terms? Hell, Trump doesn’t even _ **have** _ any coherent policies! ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3419 "2016-10-24T18:02:10Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > Nah, I think the narrative shifted to “TRUMP CAMPAIGN DYING” and “TRUMP THE PERVERT” after the Billy Bush tape came out, and I doubt it’ll shift much between now and election eve. They seemed to have moved the horse race to the down ticket races, since the main R horse started running backwards and crapping all over the track. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3420 "2016-10-24T18:05:22Z")
> [@gaffa](#): > > Presumably the major news organizations, which have access to the Twitter “firehose” will be able to check the backlog of since deleted Tweets and verify it. Your twitter guy noticed the RT tweet came a half hour before the Wikileaks tweet not the wikileak email dump which is what would have been interesting. Well wolfpup, 29% of the stupid white men are voting Hillary and the smart white guys are evenly split at 42, all according to your numbers. So I guess those 3 years of college ended up making only 13% of those dudes actually smarter, right? ---
**Author:** ![Finagle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b19c9b/32.png) [@Finagle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Finagle)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3421 "2016-10-24T18:10:21Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > FTR, for those who didn’t look at [the full ABC News poll](http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a12016ElectionTrackingNo1.pdf), there’s lots of interesting data in the summary table. > Among whites: > Men, no degree 29-60- 5- 2 -31 > Men, college grads 42-42-10- 2 0 > Women, no degree 42-51- 2- 2 -9 > Women, college grad 62-30- 5- 0 +32 > > \*Combines Oct. 22 and Oct. 13 polls for sufficient sample size. > > ```auto > > ``` I’m rather dismayed by the number of white males who went to college, learned something about critical thinking, theoretically have some understanding of the nature of government, and still believe Trump is qualified to hold the job. Even being charitable and assuming that they’re in it for the Supreme Court nominations, there has to be a point where you pull the plug on a candidate who spends his 3AM hours generating tweets with a fourth grade vocabulary. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3422 "2016-10-24T18:28:03Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > There’s a distinction between: > > 33 percent more — (36-27)/27 = 33 percent > 11 percentage points more — 36-27 = 11 percentage points The number should be 7%, to include the totality of D and R partisan voters: ( D% / ( D% + R% ) ) - 50% Of course, tbf, we probably ought to include declared Ls and Gs and so forth, but I am not sure how to work that. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/3423 "2016-10-24T18:31:55Z")
> [@Finagle](#): > > I’m rather dismayed by the number of white males who went to college, learned something about critical thinking, theoretically have some understanding of the nature of government, and still believe Trump is qualified to hold the job. Well that’s the blindspot. Do you really think an Art History major learns much about the nature of government in university? Most people who get smarter in college do so in a pretty narrow field. Unless you took Economics you don’t know jack about the justifications for free trade or tax policies. This is more about social status, not smarts. Contrary to what many believe, Trump supporters aren’t all poor uneducated whites, many are doing fine moneywise. To look at one issue: They are more likely to be in blue collar type jobs where they probably saw more of the costs of free trade rather than the benefits compared to many white collar jobs. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=170) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=172)