# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/341 "2016-10-06T06:37:29Z")
More to the point, I’m arguing against the perception that Trump is running a losing campaign deliberately in order to set himself up for a media empire. This beef with the entire fucking state of Nevada would hurt his media empire. And I still feel a tiny little frisson of wonder from that sentence. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/342 "2016-10-06T07:36:52Z")
That kid giving the speech in the bullying ad is gooooooood… ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/343 "2016-10-06T09:03:22Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > More seriously: This is pathological. This is a sign of some underlying pathology. It makes no fucking sense, it’s hurting him, and yet he’s still doing it. Everything Trump says is right. If it’s not right, he simply doesn’t say it anymore, and then nobody can ever say he said it. And if you _do_ say he’s wrong, well, then, you’re being unfair to him. Besides, Nevada wouldn’t let him open a casino in Vegas, so they’re obviously haters who’ve been being not very nice to him, and everyone agrees that they’re being unfair to him, because he _says_ they are, and everything he says is right. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/344 "2016-10-06T10:40:35Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > The fact remains, however, that Wang’s methods are accurate when it comes to predicting outcomes:[Sam Wang (neuroscientist) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Wang_%28neuroscientist%29) > > Ultimately, disagreement about these things is reasonable. It’s good, in fact; it gives everyone a chance to sharpen their tools and it gives us spectators a chance to see how close things are by comparing a range of rational people all analyzing the same data. It’s even reasonable to differ in the face of both methods performing well in an objective sense. Wang might be playing up the disagreement in this context, but in every other respect his website is drama-free and math-heavy, and it’s a constant wonder to observe such a simple model get it right time after time. I mean, it’s almost like looking at the evidence is a good way to predict the future… Sure, and it’s worth acknowledging that often [simpler models can perform better](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias%E2%80%93variance_tradeoff) than more complex ones that try to “take everything into account”, since they’re less susceptible to overfitting. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/345 "2016-10-06T10:55:04Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > [The Atlantic,](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/11/the-case-for-hillary-clinton-and-against-donald-trump/501161/)for only the third time in their history since 1860, has endorsed a candidate for president. Anyone want to guess who they endorsed? No fair clicking the link first! What’s interesting is their previous two endorsements. The first was Abraham Lincoln based on his anti-slavery position, but the second, which strangely parallels this election, was in 1964 where another reasonably successful Democrat (LBJ) was running against another candidate The Atlantic felt was actively dangerous (Goldwater). > [@](#): > > If Hillary Clinton were facing Mitt Romney, or John McCain, or George W. Bush, or, for that matter, any of the leading candidates Trump vanquished in the Republican primaries, we would not have contemplated making this endorsement. We believe in American democracy, in which individuals from various parties of different ideological stripes can advance their ideas and compete for the affection of voters. But Trump is not a man of ideas. He is a demagogue, a xenophobe, a sexist, a know-nothing, and a liar. He is spectacularly unfit for office, and voters—the statesmen and thinkers of the ballot box—should act in defense of American democracy and elect his opponent. ---
**Author:** ![soonerblue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/soonerblue/32/3302_2.png) [@soonerblue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/soonerblue)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/346 "2016-10-06T11:02:16Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > Yeah, no basket here. > > I love that the alt-right wear their\* Basket of Deplorables \*t-shirts proudly and completely without irony. It’s like wearing your underwear on the outside so you can show people the awesomeness of your skid marks. Oh I love that, spewed coffee everywhere. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/347 "2016-10-06T12:33:56Z")
> [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](#): > > I’d be more concerned with them having any power to watch TV in the first place, what with the major hurricane and all. Politics taking a back seat to real life in this case. As of now, flights tomorrow thru Atlanta are showing no projected delay, and weather forecast for the panhandle shows nothing but uninterrupted sun. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/348 "2016-10-06T12:43:45Z")
Weird [Emerson](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Emerson_final_Press_Release_and_Toplines_Fl-Nv-RI-AZ_10.5_.pdf) results. NV tied and FL Trump +1 with Clinton +2 in AZ? Really? Aggregators away! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/349 "2016-10-06T13:01:16Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Weird [Emerson](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Emerson_final_Press_Release_and_Toplines_Fl-Nv-RI-AZ_10.5_.pdf) results. > > NV tied and FL Trump +1 with Clinton +2 in AZ? Really? > > Aggregators away! I first read that as “NY Tied,” and almost peed in my pants. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/350 "2016-10-06T13:15:55Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > I think Wang’s explanation of why other sites don’t calculate the probability in that way is rather unfair: > So basically, Wang thinks his competitors either lack “expertise”, or are intentionally sacrificing accuracy to give themselves more opportunities for “commentary”. > > This omits a fourth reason, which is that Wang’s polynomial approach treats the probabilities of winning each state as independent, and some of his competitors (notably Nate Silver) don’t consider this a valid approach. The bit about fantasy baseball is because Silver first came to prominence as the stats cruncher for The Baseball Prospectus. There, he and others took the beginnings of Sabermetrics - the application of statistical analysis to baseball which Bill James started - and applied rigor to the math. So it’s kind of a cheap shot. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/351 "2016-10-06T13:19:06Z")
538 updated again, and now Arizona, which had been various shades of red, is essentially 50-50 in the Now-Cast and shaded the very lightest of light pink. My girl is going to college there, and has a chance to cast a vote that really counts in her first Presidential election! ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/352 "2016-10-06T13:23:56Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Pardon, but did you _ **just now** _ tune in? It’s Trump. > > Yeah, everything you ask is correct. > > I only ask because up until now I counted you among those who paid attention. > [@Derleth](#): > > Hey, I get a sense of wonder every time I look at a rainbow, too. Some things don’t change. I agree. I can watch kitten videos all day, and each new one astounds and delights me. Trump doesn’t delight, but he does _amaze_ every time… ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/353 "2016-10-06T13:42:27Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > The fact remains, however, that Wang’s methods are accurate when it comes to predicting outcomes:[Sam Wang (neuroscientist) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Wang_%28neuroscientist%29) But then, so are Silver’s. It’s important to note that the disagreements between Wang’s and Silver’s models are, in the broad scheme of political projections, REALLY minor. You’ve got two honest to God statisticians who use a logical, fact-based approach based on mathematics. They have some methodological differences but both arrive at pretty much the same conclusions and keep getting it right. The majority of other “forecasts” are either based on something other than math, or apply math to something other than polls, or “unskew” the polls, or are based on some other variety of unicorns, hopes and dreams. I do find this comment in the Wikipedia weird, though: [QUPOTE=Wiki article on Sam Wang]His statistical analysis in 2012 correctly predicted the presidential vote outcome in 49 of 50 states and even the popular vote outcome of Barack Obama’s 51.1% to Mitt Romney’s 48.9%. [/QUOTE] Uh… that was not the popular vote outcome, though. It ended up being 51.1 to 47.2. Wang did predict Obama would win 51.1-48.9 if you just counted Obama and Romney, so he was a tiny bit off there - certainly not by a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/354 "2016-10-06T14:10:01Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > 538 updated again, and now Arizona, which had been various shades of red, is essentially 50-50 in the Now-Cast and shaded the very lightest of light pink. My girl is going to college there, and has a chance to cast a vote that really counts in her first Presidential election! And one hour later, the barest of blues… ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/355 "2016-10-06T14:12:02Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > The first was Abraham Lincoln based on his anti-slavery position, but the second, which strangely parallels this election, was in 1964 where another reasonably successful Democrat (LBJ) was running against another candidate The Atlantic felt was actively dangerous (Goldwater). Huh. I guess that damned “Daisy” commercial scared _everybody_. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/356 "2016-10-06T14:17:16Z")
> [@Nava](#): > > And one hour later, the barest of blues… That I’ll believe when I see it. If AZ goes for Hillary then you can officially declare the Trump candidacy to be a disaster. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/357 "2016-10-06T14:20:28Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > But then, so are Silver’s. … True dat. But when a simpler model predicts as well as a more complicated model is not the simpler one preferred? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/358 "2016-10-06T14:30:36Z")
> [@Nava](#): > > And one hour later, the barest of blues… Holy cow - on the Nowcast Trump has dropped below 15%, and even in the polls-plus (the most favourable forecast for him) he’s just breaking 25%. Roll on the next debate… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/359 "2016-10-06T14:54:31Z")
> [@Ukulele\_Ike](#): > > Huh. I guess that damned “Daisy” commercial scared _everybody_. Back when LBJ was the “peace” candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/360 "2016-10-06T14:56:03Z")
In the Polls Only, Colorado just moved above 80% for Hillary, which on my [270towin board](http://www.270towin.com/maps/DRyBn), moves CO out of “swing” territory and solid blue. And puts Hillary at 269 (relatively) safe EVs. And with AZ moving officially into “swing” territory, momentum is not on Don’s side right now. Course, I won’t believe anything until the votes are all actually cast. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=19)