# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/401 "2016-10-06T19:49:44Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > But then, so are Silver’s. > > It’s important to note that the disagreements between Wang’s and Silver’s models are, in the broad scheme of political projections, REALLY minor. You’ve got two honest to God statisticians who use a logical, fact-based approach based on mathematics. They have some methodological differences but both arrive at pretty much the same conclusions and keep getting it right. The majority of other “forecasts” are either based on something other than math, or apply math to something other than polls, or “unskew” the polls, or are based on some other variety of unicorns, hopes and dreams. Oh, I fully agree with you, and, as I mentioned and as others mentioned, both flavors of this basic method work so well it’s difficult to distinguish their effectiveness in an objective sense. I will say this, though: Wang called the Republican Primary for Trump back when Silver was saying that Trump was likely to lose, but since Silver himself has owned to that mistake, I don’t really want to harp on it here. (And it isn’t even a mistake in Silver’s methodology, since his numbers were essentially similar to Wang’s; his mistake was in not taking the numbers seriously and trying to be a pundit, as he himself said.) ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/402 "2016-10-06T19:51:40Z")
When the International Civil Rights Center and Museum in Greensboro, NC denied Trump the right to close down the museum for a 5-hour photo op, [his supporters threatened to burn it down and shoot the place up](http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article105924857.html). ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/403 "2016-10-06T19:56:55Z")
> [@Chisquirrel](#): > > Maybe he’s still got Iowa on the brain, from all those stupid people. > > The town there pronounces it with the VAH. I’d like to see him to to Nevada, MO and tell those locals how it’s pronounced. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/404 "2016-10-06T20:00:33Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > When the International Civil Rights Center and Museum in Greensboro, NC denied Trump the right to close down the museum for a 5-hour photo op, [his supporters threatened to burn it down and shoot the place up](http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article105924857.html). Yeah, I wouldn’t say I love this, but I figure the museum’s comfortable in their decision. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/405 "2016-10-06T20:03:50Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Furthermore given the relatively small number of actual predictions that they make, it is impossible to say with certainty that one predictor was better than another. Suppose for example Nate says there is a 70% chance that Clinton wins the election and Wang says there is a 90% chance. The election commences and Clinton wins. Does that mean that Wang had a better predictor? No. Nate could be spot on and Wang off by 20%, and this would still be the result seven times out of 10. In order to identify a real difference between the models, you would need about 30 elections, so you can see whether Clinton won in 21/30 or in 27/30. Since they only happen every 4 years, it’s going to take a while. > > Also looking at the state results won’t save you because on average Wang and Nate give the basically the same probability for different states. With the main difference between the predictors being the degree to which states travel together, which can only be determined by looking across a large number of elections. But, assuming they both end up fairly accurate, you’ve got one person making simple assumptions that produce a fairly consistent prediction early on. You’ve got another that has lots of special sauce adjustments that gives rather large swings in it’s predictions through the election season. Simple, consistent and accurate trumps complicated, erratic and accurate. imho. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/406 "2016-10-06T20:04:17Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I’d like to see him to to Nevada, MO and tell those locals how it’s pronounced. He’ll probably have to show 'em. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/407 "2016-10-06T20:14:02Z")
Donald Trump’s own lawyers met with him in [pairs](http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/6/1578559/-Trump-s-lawyers-testified-they-met-with-him-in-pairs-to-ensure-he-wouldn-t-lie-about-their-meetings?detail=facebook) “because Donald says certain things and then has a lack of memory.” ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/408 "2016-10-06T20:16:16Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > When the International Civil Rights Center and Museum in Greensboro, NC denied Trump the right to close down the museum for a 5-hour photo op, [his supporters threatened to burn it down and shoot the place up](http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article105924857.html). Is it worse that this happened at all, or is it worse that it’s completely unsurprising that this happened? ---
**Author:** ![RandMcnally](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b782af/32.png) [@RandMcnally](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandMcnally)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/409 "2016-10-06T20:49:07Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > In this seriously something that bothers people from Nevada? It’s not like anyone is calling it “Mavada” or “Nabada.” I used to live in, and married someone from, Las Vegas- yes. Yes it is. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/410 "2016-10-06T21:13:03Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > But, assuming they both end up fairly accurate, you’ve got one person making simple assumptions that produce a fairly consistent prediction early on. You’ve got another that has lots of special sauce adjustments that gives rather large swings in it’s predictions through the election season. Simple, consistent and accurate trumps complicated, erratic and accurate. imho. But there is only one data point at the end. Without checking the agreement between mid august guesses and final outcomes over a large number of runs, I can’t know whether a volatile model is correct. I could have posted on June 30 2015 that Clinton had a 80% chance of winning, and never budged. If she wins does that mean that I’m a better prognosticator than Wang, since my prediction was very simple and consistent? Also take a look at[this](https://priceonomics.com/modeling-the-probability-of-winning-an-nfl-game/). Now an election isn’t a football game, but it is certainly possible that the probability of winning could vary substantially over time. If Trump had aced the debate, and his leaked tax forms had been replaced by leaked emails in which Clinton pushes her subordinates to down play the terrorist angle in Benghazi, I don’t think that her probability of victory would remain unchanged any more than a teams chance of winning will stay steady after scoring a fourth quarter touchdown. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/411 "2016-10-06T21:46:58Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Donald Trump’s own lawyers met with him in [pairs](http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/6/1578559/-Trump-s-lawyers-testified-they-met-with-him-in-pairs-to-ensure-he-wouldn-t-lie-about-their-meetings?detail=facebook) “because Donald says certain things and then has a lack of memory.” Apparently he’s not the only one with a leaky memory. This was only 11 posts ago: > [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [Trump’s own lawyer testified in court that they had to meet with him in pairs in order to have witnesses when he tried to backtrack and claim he didn’t say what he said when he was meeting with them.](http://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/trumps-own-bankruptcy-lawyers-say-he-lies-so-much-they-could-only-meet-with-him-in-pairs/) How soon you forget. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/412 "2016-10-06T21:53:22Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Apparently he’s not the only one with a leaky memory. This was only 11 posts ago: > > How soon you forget. 😃 I never wrote that post. (Hey, it works for Trump!) ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/413 "2016-10-06T21:53:40Z")
> [@Enginerd](#): > > Yes, it is. I moved to Nevada in 2002, and (as someone who pronounced it like the Spanish word) I found it ridiculous. All I can say is that it grows on you, and now it’s jarring to me to hear it pronounced “neh vah da.” It’s not something that I’d hold against you… unless you flew in from New York brashly insisting that you were right and the people who live here are wrong. > [@Derleth](#): > > [As expected, Language Log has the Nevada story, complete with a recording.](http://languagelog.ldc.upenn.edu/nll/?p=28708) Here’s what Trump specifically said:He’s definitely picking a fight. He’s picking a fight with a state. Over how to pronounce the name of that state. And he isn’t even from there. > > The wonder never ceases. > > And, of course, Wikipedia has an interesting paragraph, with IPA:[Nevada - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada) > [@RandMcnally](#): > > I used to live in, and married someone from, Las Vegas- yes. Yes it is. I was also a Nevadan for about 15 years. It’s definitely _vaa_ like “vat”, not \*vah \*like Mrs. Howell’s priceless Ming vaaahse. Here’s hoping he visits Missouri soon. As a former Missourian I can say that whether you pronounce it Mizz-urr-ee or Mizz-urr-uh you’re going to piss off about half the residents. It’s a must-lose situation. Don’s a natural fit for that. “I’ll take Kobayashi Maru gambits for $200, Alex.” ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/414 "2016-10-06T21:54:52Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > But there is only one data point at the end. Without checking the agreement between mid august guesses and final outcomes over a large number of runs, I can’t know whether a volatile model is correct. I could have posted on June 30 2015 that Clinton had a 80% chance of winning, and never budged. If she wins does that mean that I’m a better prognosticator than Wang, since my prediction was very simple and consistent? Well, yes frankly. If you consistently managed to be right. Remember I started the post with “assuming they both end up fairly accurate”. To jump to a different sports analogy, imagine baseball batters waiting on a fastball. Who’s the better hitter, the one who thinks it’s going top left when it leaves the pitcher’s hand or the one who figures it out 2 feet from the plate? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/415 "2016-10-06T21:59:49Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I never wrote that post. (Hey, it works for Trump!) Bravo. You win the thread. A great comeback; the greatest in fact! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Catamount](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/catamount/32/2840_2.png) [@Catamount](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Catamount)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/416 "2016-10-06T22:02:23Z")
If there is one thing I have learned from this thread, it is how to correctly pronounce “Nevada.” No day is wasted in which something new is learned. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/417 "2016-10-06T22:11:21Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well, yes frankly. If you consistently managed to be right. Remember I started the post with “assuming they both end up fairly accurate”. To jump to a different sports analogy, imagine baseball batters waiting on a fastball. Who’s the better hitter, the one who thinks it’s going top left when it leaves the pitcher’s hand or the one who figures it out 2 feet from the plate? That’s a pretty bogus analogy. The odds of one side’s success do in fact fluctuate day to day. It’s not like a pitch where the point of eventual plate-crossing is fixed by physics when it leaves the pitcher’s hand. To be sure, answering the question “Who would win if the election were today?” is different from “Who will win in Nov based on what we’ve seen so far plus what we expect to see between now and Nov?” The first question should have a bunch of volatility in a hard-fought punch-counterpunch race. Especially one played for ratings by the media. The second one should also have volatility. But how much? If everyone was a hard-over partisan, everybody always voted, and there were no wildcards like 3rd parties, Big news events or candidate gaffes, and no election day snowstorms or voter suppression, intimidation, or election board incompetence, this’d be easy. But there \*are \*independents, undecideds, and maybe-I’ll-vote-maybe-I-wont’s. And all of those groups do in fact fluctuate over time. And with different dynamics in different states. A projection that does not capture those fluctuations is wrong in principle. Even if, like a blind pig, it finds an acorn now and again. Unless the race is poised on a razor-edge, an ideal prediction should be less volatile than the daily opinion polls. But how much less? ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/418 "2016-10-06T22:27:51Z")
> [@Catamount](#): > > If there is one thing I have learned from this thread, it is how to correctly pronounce “Nevada.” No day is wasted in which something new is learned. Wait till he goes to Ore"gun" (not Ore"gone"). ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/419 "2016-10-06T22:29:07Z")
@LSLGuy: Ok it’s a bogus analogy. So instead imagine one election predictor who pretty accurately predicts early and another who eventually settles on an accurate prediction late. “But a whole bunch of stuff happened in the middle so you can’t blame the guy for only being accurate late”. Sure, but one guy didn’t agree all that middle stuff made much difference and another did. Who’s better at predicting? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2016, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/420 "2016-10-06T22:42:49Z")
Because I have close family who are gonna be in the middle of this storm, I keep checking the radar and satellite imagery, and it looks to me like this storm has taken a tack to a direct westerly heading since it got to Freeport. So that got me to wondering: what if the hurricane hits Palm Beach and obliterates Mr. Trump’s Mar-A-Lago? How might that affect the [del]campaigns[/del]election? Would the voting public take it as evidence that God did not care for Mr. Trump? Or would people think it was Obama using secret government technology to control the weather to decimate his political ally’s foe while making it seem like God does not like Mr. Trump? Or something else? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=20) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=22)