# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 211

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**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4205 "2016-10-31T10:14:39Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> I’d note that the easiest, bulletproof way for Comey to influence the election would have simply been to recommend charges against Clinton. You guys might want to stick to your story about whether Comey can be trusted or not.

Comey can’t make charges that aren’t warranted exist. At least not while maintaining any credibility.

He could easily be a partisan douchebag. He couldn’t make a genuine case against HRC, so he held a press conference badmouthing her for half an hour instead. Now, he tosses this misleading letter. Both are consistent.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4206 "2016-10-31T10:20:31Z")

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Hardly. Other legal experts have also pointed out that others have been charged for less. He could certainly plausibly have charged her. She’d probably not be found guilty, but by then it’s too late.

If Comey wants to get away with being political in a totally legal way, he can just respond to these nonsense this way: “Anyone who would suggest that I’d play politics with an investigation is unfit to hold elective office.”

As a matter of fact, the right should be banging that drum for the next 10 days. Let’s make this election a referendum on James Comey and see who comes out ahead.

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**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4207 "2016-10-31T10:46:04Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> If Comey wants to get away with being political in a totally legal way, he can just respond to these nonsense this way: “Anyone who would suggest that I’d play politics with an investigation is unfit to hold elective office.”
> 
> As a matter of fact, the right should be banging that drum for the next 10 days. Let’s make this election a referendum on James Comey and see who comes out ahead.

He should definitely do that. Then we could have ten days of clips of the right, including Donald Trump, complaining how Comey’s original findings were evidence of him being in the bag for Hillary.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 10:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4208 "2016-10-31T10:49:42Z")

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You could do that, but who spoke stupid last is always what people pay attention to. At least the GOP wasn’t calling for Comey’s prosecution or removal.

Or, if Comey wants to be extra subtle he could say “I’d welcome an investigation and I will cooperate fully, as will anyone else in the FBI.”

Then the Republicans contrast Comey’s transparency with Clinton’s obstruction of any and all inquiries against her, including the rather pedestrian FOIA request that led the State Dept to discover that they didn’t have any of her emails three years after she left office.

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**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4209 "2016-10-31T11:02:50Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Hardly. Other legal experts have also pointed out that others have been charged for less.

Which experts? I hear a lot of horseshit on the RW media, but precious few experts.

> [@](#):
>
> He could certainly plausibly have charged her. She’d probably not be found guilty, but by then it’s too late.

If he has any integrity, he’s not going to charge an innocent woman. He can have integrity and be a partisan twat.

> [@](#):
>
> If Comey wants to get away with being political in a totally legal way, he can just respond to these nonsense this way: “Anyone who would suggest that I’d play politics with an investigation is unfit to hold elective office.”

I’m not sure what you think that would do, it’s self-serving.

> [@](#):
>
> As a matter of fact, the right should be banging that drum for the next 10 days. Let’s make this election a referendum on James Comey and see who comes out ahead.

I’d rather it be a referendum on HRC.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4210 "2016-10-31T11:06:58Z")

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You’ll lose that one too. The only way Clinton wins is if it’s a referendum on Donald Trump. Donald Trump seems to be the forgotten man in the last 48 hours of news coverage. He always gains in the polls when he’s not the story.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4211 "2016-10-31T11:41:34Z")

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Clinton +2.4 as of this morning.

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**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4212 "2016-10-31T11:48:16Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> I’d note that the easiest, bulletproof way for Comey to influence the election would have simply been to recommend charges against Clinton. You guys might want to stick to your story about whether Comey can be trusted or not.

Unless he got so much stick from Republicans by not charging her, he had to do something to mitigate that. Who knows what the GOP has on him.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4213 "2016-10-31T11:50:44Z")

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Who knows what’s in Clinton’s “private” emails? There’s speculation and then there’s wild imaginings. It’s possible that Comey was pressured internally to do something like this. Right wing sources say he was tired of all the resignation notices he was getting. That’s actually plausible. Republicans having dirt on him less so.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4214 "2016-10-31T13:23:06Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Right wing sources say…

I think I found a flaw in your argument.

Unfortunately for Trump, even having an FBI stooge on the payroll won’t change the electoral map. There is no way for him to win PA. NC is out of reach. Take these off the table and it’s hard to draw a map to 270 for him.

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**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4215 "2016-10-31T13:24:34Z")

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> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> Comey may have saved this country from some very disturbing post election events.
> 
> Trump has been screaming rigged election for weeks. The best way to validate that (for his supporters) is to discover the FBI was secretly investigating new evidence. That could be the match in a barn full of TNT.
> 
> I’m thankful the truth came out. No cover ups. Hillary may win by a few less points and that’s good enough.

I think when all is said and done (and much much more will be said, than done) this is it. The Hillary landslide won’t happen, but she’ll squeak in with 320 Electoral Votes, or thereabouts.

And I think Comey’s motives can be taken at face value. These emails came to light, and he decided to go full open kimono: investigate, and tell everybody they’re investigating, and timing be damned.

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**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4216 "2016-10-31T13:42:38Z")

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If the Clinton campaign has any more cards up its sleeve, now would be the time to play them.

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**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4217 "2016-10-31T13:43:41Z")

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I suspect Obama will fire Comey before Inauguration Day to save Hillary from the political fallout of doing so (or from having to find ways to work around him).

> [@elucidator](#):
>
> Well, Cruz is a very disagreeable and obnoxious person, whereas Trump is…not so much.

Oh, they both are, but are remarkably skilled at findings ways to be differently so.

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**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4218 "2016-10-31T14:43:46Z")

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Newsweek is reporting that Donald Trump’s Companies Destroyed Emails in Defiance of Court Orders. Let’s see if the media goes on about this for days (they won’t). Admittedly, this doesn’t have any potential national security implications, but it’s says something about how he does business and his lack of respect for the law.

> **[Trump's Missing Emails](https://www.newsweek.com/2016/11/11/donald-trump-companies-destroyed-emails-documents-515120.html)**
>
> The Trump strategy was deny, impede and delay, while destroying documents the court had ordered them to hand over.

> [@](#):
>
> Over the course of decades, Donald Trump’s companies have systematically destroyed or hidden thousands of emails, digital records and paper documents demanded in official proceedings, often in defiance of court orders. These tactics—exposed by a Newsweek review of thousands of pages of court filings, judicial orders and affidavits from an array of court cases—have enraged judges, prosecutors, opposing lawyers and the many ordinary citizens entangled in litigation with Trump. In each instance, Trump and entities he controlled also erected numerous hurdles that made lawsuits drag on for years, forcing courtroom opponents to spend huge sums of money in legal fees as they struggled—sometimes in vain—to obtain records.

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4219 "2016-10-31T15:16:08Z")

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> [@BobLibDem](#):
>
> Unfortunately for Trump, even having an FBI stooge on the payroll won’t change the electoral map. There is no way for him to win PA. NC is out of reach.

I would not bet my house on that.

North Carolina, according to 538, may be less than two points apart. That is not out of reach by even the most optimistic stretch of the imagination.

It depends what happens this week, and, of course, Clinton does not need to win North Carolina to win the election. Since Virginia and Colorado are apparently now Democratic states, Pennsylvania alone would do:

> **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/6DYjZ)**
>
> Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4220 "2016-10-31T15:21:16Z")

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> [@RickJay](#):
>
> I would not bet my house on that.
> 
> North Carolina, according to 538, may be less than two points apart. That is not out of reach by even the most optimistic stretch of the imagination.
> 
> It depends what happens this week, and, of course, Clinton does not need to win North Carolina to win the election. Since Virginia and Colorado are apparently now Democratic states, Pennsylvania alone would do:
> 
> [270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](http://www.270towin.com/maps/6DYjZ)

That is a VERY reassuring map. I’m really hard pressed to find a blue state where Trump has a chance of flipping. On the other hand, I see no problem imagining Hillary carrying FL, NC, and NV.

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4221 "2016-10-31T15:21:44Z")

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> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#):
>
> I suspect Obama will fire Comey before Inauguration Day

Firing Comey would scream ‘corruption.’ Someone would make Watergate comparisons.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4222 "2016-10-31T15:36:18Z")

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No, it would be pointless for reasons already discussed. He should maintain a dignified distance, as should Hillary. Never let them see you sweat. Be restrained and circumspect.

‘Course, Lizzy Warren, Joe Biden and Bernie are under no such restrictions. Just sayin’, is all.

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**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4223 "2016-10-31T15:58:09Z")

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If you skim quickly, “Lizzy Warren, Joe Biden” looks a lot like “Lizzy Borden”. Made me do a double take 🙂

Makes me wonder who’s going to do the hatchet-job to whom?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [October 31, 2016, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4224 "2016-10-31T16:08:24Z")

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> [@BobLibDem](#):
>
> That is a VERY reassuring map. I’m really hard pressed to find a blue state where Trump has a chance of flipping. On the other hand, I see no problem imagining Hillary carrying FL, NC, and NV.

Trump’s chance rely on white men in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin coming out in big numbers. It’s not impossible, though it’s not likely. Flip one of those states on my map (a map that already assumes Trump has lost all the other battleground states) and he wins. Maybe New Hampshire surprises us, which ties it 269-269, which means Trump wins (most states House delegations are controlled by the GOP, and still would be in this scenario.)

Of course, a 269-269 tie also raises the plausible and extremely entertaining possibility that a GOP delegate who can’t stomach the dirty old prick will cast a vote for Clinton, thus resulting in one of the most gorilla-panic-shit-fit-inducing news cycles in the history of the world.

Clinton is unquestionably winning, and at least 10-15 percent of the votes were cast before this past weekend and the FBI announcement. Trump needs either an amazing last week comeback or a polling error. I think, honestly, a polling error is more likely. If the polling screens have incorrectly failed to account for a lurch towards angry white men rushing out to vote for an angry white guy, Trump can win. How likely that is, I frankly have no idea. It could be a one in twenty shot, a one in two shot, one in a thousand, I cant say. But the fact that it might be a plausible thing makes it much likelier than an actual comeback, which at this stage is exceedingly unlikely no matter what weird shit the FBI comes out with.

Early polling results give us no clear picture. In some states the clues point Democratic, in some Republican.

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