# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 221
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4405 "2016-11-02T04:57:56Z")
> [@](#): > > …They are still supporting the party in other ways, but you get what you can. Thing is, that would be 28% of Florida GOP voters who voted against Trump. Not just 28% of Florida GOP voters who stayed home, so far, they haven’t been counted because, duh, they didn’t vote. Florida GOP who don’t support Trump and won’t go vote for him, you can count as one strike. Florida GOP voters who vote for Hillary, that’s _two_! That gets into territory that I, for one, never even considered: Republicans who vote _against_ Trump, not simply don’t support him. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4406 "2016-11-02T05:32:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [Here.](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/02/1589871/-HUGE-breaking-news-tomorrow-for-FLA-28-of-GOP-early-voters-surveyed-voted-Clinton) > > FWIW and take with however many grains of salt you deem appropriate. You guys can believe whatever you like, but here’s some more background on the poll: > **[Hillary Takes 8 Point Lead in Florida EV: 28% of Republicans Crossing Over to...](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/1/1589868/-Hillary-Takes-8-Point-Lead-in-Early-Florida-28-of-Republicans-Crossing-Over-to-Vote-for-Hillary)** > > BREAKING… > > As just reported on the Lawrence O’Donnell show, a College of William & Mary-TargetSmart poll, which will be released in full tomorrow, shows Hillary Clinton has an 8 point lead in Florida. Interestingly, according to this poll,... > [@](#): > > The survey reached 311 respondents who voted early in the 2016 general election … > > No margins of sampling error are calculated for this survey, as this statistic is only applicable to fully randomly sampled surveys, which this survey is not due to its partial reliance on online interviews. Those are things I’d typically see as red flags from a pollster. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4407 "2016-11-02T05:48:38Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You guys can believe whatever you like, but here’s some more background on the poll: > > [Hillary Takes 8 Point Lead in Florida EV: 28% of Republicans Crossing Over to Vote for Hillary!](http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/1/1589868/-Hillary-Takes-8-Point-Lead-in-Early-Florida-28-of-Republicans-Crossing-Over-to-Vote-for-Hillary) > > Those are things I’d typically see as red flags from a pollster. You are missing that it is not a poll exactly, those are actual voters who actually voted. So, for that part it is not a guess, hence not much need for random sampling. AFAIK that was applied to the other part, where they did weight the chances of those others being surveyed of being likely voters. The point was that so far, 28% of registered GOP voted Hillary here, that is very significant indeed. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4408 "2016-11-02T05:51:37Z")
> [@](#): > > …Those are things I’d typically see as red flags from a pollster. Well, then, it will be all thoroughly debunked in a matter of hours. So, you got nothing to worry about. Unless it isn’t. And this is a very unusual poll, in that the people have already voted, and nobody has to go sampling at random to find them. They already knew that these people had voted, so questions like “registered voter” and “likely voter” don’t enter into it. If I’m puzzled by anything, its wondering why Florida Republican are so against Trump, and apparently so much more so than other Republicans? Unless they _aren’t_ any more against him than any others, and this is just the first clue we got about that. And even if it were only half true, only 14% of Florida Republican early voters not just sitting it out, but voting _against_ him…that’s the distinction between a disaster and a catastrophe of Biblical proportions. I’m not greedy, disaster will do fine. ---
**Author:** ![Defensive\_Indifference](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/defensive_indifference/32/6502_2.png) [@Defensive\_Indifference](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Defensive_Indifference)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4409 "2016-11-02T06:18:01Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Baseball in November. That is just fucked up. If there were a candidate who could fix that, I would vote for them on that issue alone. Hmmmm. Where do the candidates stand on the DH? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4410 "2016-11-02T08:30:37Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > Scott Walker just tweeted, “If you like the last eight years, vote for Hillary Clinton.” Democrats and the Clinton staff are jumping all over it and telling him, “Thank you.” I think the Democrats have pretty much given up on anything but base moblization at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4411 "2016-11-02T09:55:44Z")
> [@Biffster](#): > > So much for the concept of secret ballot. > Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk _How_ people voted is still secret, or up to them to share. _That_ they voted has long been a matter of public record. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 10:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4412 "2016-11-02T10:18:28Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > You are missing that it is not a poll exactly, those are actual voters who actually voted. So, for that part it is not a guess, hence not much need for random sampling. AFAIK that was applied to the other part, where they did weight the chances of those others being surveyed of being likely voters. > > The point was that so far, 28% of registered GOP voted Hillary here, that is very significant indeed. It’s a poll like election day exit polls are polls and subject to some of the same potential flaws. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4413 "2016-11-02T11:39:45Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I think the Democrats have pretty much given up on anything but base moblization at this point. As opposed to Trump doing what? Talking to a white audience about black people? Accusing Mexico of sending rapists and drug dealers? Demonizing Muslims, including a Gold Star family? (by the way, he didn’t know what a Gold Star family was). ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4414 "2016-11-02T11:42:41Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > As opposed to Trump doing what? Talking to a white audience about black people? Accusing Mexico of sending rapists and drug dealers? Demonizing Muslims, including a Gold Star family? (by the way, he didn’t know what a Gold Star family was). Hey man, he did have a black guy in the audience – well, until he called him a thug and had him taken away by security. \* “We’re gonna do well with the blacks. Where’s my African American? There he is! Everyone clap! Oh wait, he’s a thug. Guards, get him!”\* ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4415 "2016-11-02T12:01:29Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > _How_ people voted is still secret, or up to them to share. _That_ they voted has long been a matter of public record. It is in “democracies” like Iraq as well. Sure, there is only one name on the ballot, but nearly 100% of the people would show up to cast their vote, largely because they would also keep a list of who voted and who didn’t. They could claim to be a stronger democracy than the United States is. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4416 "2016-11-02T12:07:02Z")
> **[Iowa police take suspect in ‘ambush-style’ killings of two officers into custody](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/11/02/two-iowa-police-officers-killed-in-what-police-are-calling-ambush-style-attacks/)** > > Police say they took the suspected attacker into custody late Wednesday morning. Sad news today out of Iowa, with two officers apparently killed in an ambush attack. I normally wouldn’t post this as part of a political campaign thread but I do think that this is something that has quietly become a major election issue. I have recently seen some Trump signs that read “Trump: The Law and Order Candidate.” And I think that he’s been playing to this (white) appeal to authoritarianism. I also suspect that this is in no small part factoring into some of the recent odd behavior from some within the FBI. I reiterate that I haven’t necessarily jumped on the anti-Comey bandwagon. I don’t necessarily think the FBI leaks and dumps are a product of Comey but from activists within the agency who are probably hyper-partisan and trying to push Comey into a corner. Now having said that, Comey is on record as battling with the more progressive media outlets, Black Lives Matter, the Democrats, and the DOJ in pushing hard against criticism of the police. Comey is not actually a police officer but a conservative prosecutor, which might also factor into his public behavior. As a “civilian” of sorts within the FBI, he might feel extra pressure to defend his officers and all officers in public. And to keep morale even he might find it difficult to push back against activists under him. I’m not making excuses for him - it’s his job to get activists under control. But I could understand where he’s coming from. And again, it wasn’t Comey’s decision to ignore the federal policies and the advice of federal security officials to set up government email on private servers – that’s on Clinton. Nor did Comey decide to make that practice the centerpiece of a political witch hunt – that’s on Republicans. Nor did he decide to take pics of Anthony Weiner’s wee wee and send them across the Internet. Nor did he decide to retain an advisor who inexplicably remained married to someone like Weiner who was clearly not right in the head – that’s also on Clinton. Comey’s caught in the middle in uncharted waters. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4417 "2016-11-02T13:00:55Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > As opposed to Trump doing what? Talking to a white audience about black people? Accusing Mexico of sending rapists and drug dealers? Demonizing Muslims, including a Gold Star family? (by the way, he didn’t know what a Gold Star family was). Trump has made an effort to reach all voters and he’s basically been laughed at for doing it. Not that the people laughing are wrong, he’s terrible at it, but he has at least made an effort. For Clinton to think that the last eight years has been wonderful makes sense given what her strategy has been throughout this campaign, but it’s not going to win anyone but Obama fans over. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4418 "2016-11-02T13:04:33Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > … > If I’m puzzled by anything, its wondering why Florida Republican are so against Trump, and apparently so much more so than other Republicans? Unless they _aren’t_ any more against him than any others, and this is just the first clue we got about that. > … The Cubans here are mostly R voters. And don’t think too highly of Trump’s racist and anti-immigrant rhetoric. So \*if \*these early FL results are predictive of anything nationwide they’re predictive that Trump will do very poorly among non-white and immigrant Republicans. In some parts of the country those are rare birds indeed. Down here they’re like seagulls. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4419 "2016-11-02T13:14:33Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > The Cubans here are mostly R voters. And don’t think too highly of Trump’s racist and anti-immigrant rhetoric. It might be more specific to Florida since Trump also violated the Cuba embargo. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4420 "2016-11-02T13:18:10Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > … > I normally wouldn’t post this as part of a political campaign thread but I do think that this is something that has quietly become a major election issue. I have recently seen some Trump signs that read “Trump: The Law and Order Candidate.” And I think that he’s been playing to this (white) appeal to authoritarianism. … I have a neighbor and friend who’s a retired LEO. Rose to the rank of Captain in his state-level agency, so a middle manager, not just a beat cop. Good guy overall, and not as burnt by the career as many. A couple months ago he sent around a blast-cast in favor of Trump. It can be summarized as “Obama has declared war on the rank and file police. Clinton is more of the same. Soon you’ll be patrolling with no body armor and no sidearm if they have their way. Vote Trump; he’s for the police, not against them.” It also had several links to police-centric messageboards and blogs echoing these themes. With no shortage of sneering abuse for the BLM movement. My friend didn’t write this piece; he was just forwarding it. As probably did hundreds or thousands of other members of that audience. So that message is out there and has been out there for quite awhile. Then again \*D = Anarchy, R = Safety \*has been a campaign meme since I was a kid in the early 60s. McGovern was widely touted as the guy who’d let the long-haired college kids finish taking over the campuses. That was a yuuge part of why he lost bigly. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4421 "2016-11-02T13:19:19Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/11/02/two-iowa-police-officers-killed-in-what-police-are-calling-ambush-style-attacks/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/11/02/two-iowa-police-officers-killed-in-what-police-are-calling-ambush-style-attacks/) > > Sad news today out of Iowa, with two officers apparently killed in an ambush attack. > > I normally wouldn’t post this as part of a political campaign thread but I do think that this is something that has quietly become a major election issue. I have recently seen some Trump signs that read “Trump: The Law and Order Candidate.” And I think that he’s been playing to this (white) appeal to authoritarianism. I also suspect that this is in no small part factoring into some of the recent odd behavior from some within the FBI. Yeah, Trump was probably salivating when he saw this news. Until he saw the [suspect](https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/heres-what-we-know-about-michael-greene?utm_term=.krex4L7GPy#.nkqxal54YO), of course. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4422 "2016-11-02T13:24:02Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > That does sound encouraging. The downside is that, IIRC, Nate Silver claimed that early voting was a poor predictor of final results. Still, the prospect that Hillary might comfortably take Florida would be very reassuring. The NY Times has a bottom line Chances of Winning on their app – it’s currently at Hillary 87%. No idea how they arrived at that number, and I don’t care. I’ve decided that I will stay away from 538, and only read the Times for the next 6 days. It’s better for my blood pressure. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4423 "2016-11-02T13:30:42Z")
SO I’m in the US right now (leaving today thankfully, don’t want to be here on election day). I was pretty shocked to see ABC news blasting out “DEAD HEAT” for Trump and Clinton based on their one poll with who knows what methodology. More than that, other media seems to be taking this seriously? They have to know this is bullshit and that Clinton still has a 4 point lead and that with the Electoral college the way it is, Trump’s chances are very low. Yeah I know they want to create drama by making it seem close, but the really dangerous thing is that this is going to throw fuel onto the fire of all the “election is rigged” Trump supporters. When Clinton wins by 4-5 points, as is likely and with over 300 EV, they’re all going to point to the polls saying it was a dead heat as evidence that it was rigged. This could really get ugly… ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4424 "2016-11-02T13:35:33Z")
If he loses by _any_ margin, Trump die-hards will still be frothing at the mouth. Might not make much difference either way. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=220) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=222)