# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 223
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4445 "2016-11-02T15:04:44Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > This is a really surprising line to read, here on this message board. I had expected Dopers to be more interested in the “truth” / reality and less interested in just reading / listening to an echo chamber. > > It’s interesting to see how Nate Silver falls out of favor with people here when his predictions show Trump with a better chance, and how closely people hang on his predictions when they show HRC killing it. I think you’re misunderstanding. I think most of us think Nate’s right. It’s just for our blood pressures, might be better not to follow it so closely. Just like I don’t pay attention to the stock market. I don’t see most here denying the reality or truth. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4446 "2016-11-02T15:05:32Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Yes she’s still ahead but the 538 PollsPlus has dropped from 83% chance for Clinton to win to 68% since Oct 24th, thats not nothing and considering there has been no major events from either side it’s rather baffling. All the other swings this large on the 538 PollsPlus coincided with clear events which more or less explained them. It’s not nothing, it’s just the race reverting back to the mean. I simply cannot buy that there are tens of millions of people out there that switch their vote wildly back and forth depending on the scandal of the week. The way Sam Wang explained it is that when things are looking bad for one candidate or another their voters are less likely to want to answer pollsters leading to the swings, but that this does not mean their vote has actually been affected. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4447 "2016-11-02T15:22:11Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > I think you’re misunderstanding. I think most of us think Nate’s right. It’s just for our blood pressures, might be better not to follow it so closely. Just like I don’t pay attention to the stock market. I don’t see most here denying the reality or truth. Exactly. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4448 "2016-11-02T16:20:54Z")
I only read 538 for the polling updates. I don’t care about his probabilities, I think they’re a crock of shit. Assumptions on top of averages on top of assumptions. Plus with probability as his output, as long as he doesn’t say 100%, HE CAN NEVER BE WRONG. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4449 "2016-11-02T16:23:48Z")
> [@Bayard](#): > > Hmmmm. Where do the candidates stand on the DH? I think Ms. Clinton expressed support for the Cubbies, who are NL. On the other hand, the Republican Convention was held in Cleveland, a straight AL town, where the thingy will be decided. However, I suspect Ms. Clinton, having strong Chi-Town ties, would support the Black Sox if they were in the series, so the question is not so clear-cut. Trump is from New York, which has both an AL and NL team, so I would not expect him to want to alienate half the city by declaring one way or the other. In the end, the DH will remain, no matter who you vote for. The more pressing issues relate to what kind of contact is acceptable on pass plays and how control of the ball should be decided on close calls. Those questions are much more relevant this time of year. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4450 "2016-11-02T16:28:03Z")
Clinton should be hoping for a Cleveland win tonight. People being in a good mood will be better for her. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4451 "2016-11-02T16:30:31Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > Plus with probability as his output, as long as he doesn’t say 100%, HE CAN NEVER BE WRONG. This fundamental lack of certainty is also more colloquially known as _science._ ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4452 "2016-11-02T16:44:53Z")
> [@Spice\_Weasel](#): > > This fundamental lack of certainty is also more colloquially known as _science._ Or in the case of 538, _a snow job_. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4453 "2016-11-02T17:17:57Z")
“I never met that Mafia guy [on the video next to me](https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-trump-with-mob-figure-he-denied-knowing-090025964.html)!” ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4454 "2016-11-02T17:35:33Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > Or in the case of 538, _a snow job_. It would be rather dishonest of the man to claim to know for sure who was going to win if, in fact, he does not know for sure who is going to win. It’s not a snow job if you’re honest. ---
**Author:** ![gaffa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e68b1a/32.png) [@gaffa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gaffa)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4455 "2016-11-02T17:38:24Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > “I never met that Mafia guy [on the video next to me](https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-shows-trump-with-mob-figure-he-denied-knowing-090025964.html)!” Plenty of people I’ve never met have named racehorses after me. Happens all the time! Let me see if I have this correct - he screwed over a Gotti lieutenant, hit on the (wise)guy’s daughter and was threatened with castration. How is this goober still alive? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4456 "2016-11-02T17:47:10Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > …All she needs are the Obama voters, plus all the Romney voters who are going to hold their noses and vote for her, plus a plurality of undecideds and new voters, and it will be a landslide. I can’t tell you how much I hope you’re right, but I have to admit this election is giving me gray hairs. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4457 "2016-11-02T17:48:56Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > The NY Times has a bottom line Chances of Winning on their app – it’s currently at Hillary 87%. No idea how they arrived at that number, and I don’t care. > > I’ve decided that I will stay away from 538, and only read the Times for the next 6 days. It’s better for my blood pressure. Let me introduce you to your new best friend, [Sam Wang](http://election.princeton.edu/). ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4458 "2016-11-02T17:50:18Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > This is a really surprising line to read, here on this message board. I had expected Dopers to be more interested in the “truth” / reality and less interested in just reading / listening to an echo chamber. > > It’s interesting to see how Nate Silver falls out of favor with people here when his predictions show Trump with a better chance, and how closely people hang on his predictions when they show HRC killing it. The New York Times counts as an echo chamber now? ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4459 "2016-11-02T17:51:57Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > The New York Times counts as an echo chamber now? I admit I do think of it that way. Not as bad as HuffPo or Fox News, but basically presenting a fiscally moderate, socially liberal mindset. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4460 "2016-11-02T17:55:00Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > The New York Times counts as an echo chamber now? They’ve been a boogeyman of the Right for quite a while now. Basically anything that’s not Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, or smeared on the side of a truck stop restroom is a part of the liberal media conspiracy. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4461 "2016-11-02T18:35:07Z")
[An avowed white supremacist is robocalling voters in Utah to tell them that Evan McMullin is a closet homosexual.](http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865666083/White-supremacist-questions-McMullins-sexuality-in-calls-to-Utah-voters.html?pg=all) Besides the allegation that McMullin is unmarried and doesn’t have a girlfriend, apparently his mother is married to a woman, and that makes him gay. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4462 "2016-11-02T18:51:38Z")
[Felon Tom DeLay thinks the House should begin impeachment proceedings the first day of Hillary’s Presidency.](http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/disgraced-ex-speaker-tom-delay-rolls-out-plan-to-impeach-hillary-clinton-on-day-one/) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4463 "2016-11-02T18:53:37Z")
I’m starting to feel like Nate Silver, feeling especially burned for completely getting it wrong on Trump in the primaries, is steadily inching his forecast down to 50%, and will post an Election Morning analysis that simply reads “Flip a coin, people.” ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4464 "2016-11-02T18:57:32Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > Let me introduce you to your new best friend, [Sam Wang](http://election.princeton.edu/). Very interesting - thanks. His bit on who kids support for President, and what that might mean for America’s future, is quite encouraging. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=222) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=224)