# Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 30, 2016, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277 "2016-09-30T11:21:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 231
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4605 "2016-11-04T12:30:24Z")
I’d rather laugh with the sinners than cry with the saints. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4606 "2016-11-04T12:33:45Z")
> [@AnalogSignal](#): > > In her odd speech today, Melania plagiarized Marla Maples: “if you could dream it, you could become it” 🙂 > > [https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/03/melania-trump-leaves-the-media-scratching-its-head-again/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/03/melania-trump-leaves-the-media-scratching-its-head-again/) > [@wolfpup](#): > > I dream of becoming a massive malignant tumor growing out of Trump’s forehead, directly underneath the orange ferret whose mangy fur overhangs it. But I doubt I will become it. > [@Gyrate](#): > > … > A pity she didn’t go with “Don’t dream it, be it”. 😃 Or better yet: “I have a dream that our … children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the (orange) color of their skin (or hair) but by the [del]content[/del] absence of their character.” Woulda been yuuge had she done that. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4607 "2016-11-04T12:37:02Z")
Nobody goes to hell anymore. My old man showed up there and it was closed. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4608 "2016-11-04T12:52:10Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > I’ve seen several people here and elsewhere comment that based on recent polling, they think Ohio’s going for Trump. > > Obviously, you have some bias, working for the campaign itself (bias in that you’re not likely to hear bad news from them, and less likely to run across Trump supporters), but what do you think? I think it’s still winnable for Clinton - as I’ve said before, Obama won it twice before - but it’s maybe tilting to Trump right now. Clinton will need massive turnout in the cities to offset Trump’s strength downstate and out in the sticks. > [@choie](#): > > Meyers sounds suspiciously like Nicholas Kristof these days. 😃[I think you meant this video](https://youtu.be/9v97xH6Bof0?t=6m21s), which is indeed awesome. Right you are - thanks. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4609 "2016-11-04T13:14:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > … Of course, Trump can still win if there is even a small polling error or turnout is different than expected. Assuming no more bombshells over the next 4 days, the polling going into Election Day should be Clinton+2 or so. … Let’s take those claims in reverse order. Polling aggregators current numbers: 538 PollsOnly - C+3.1 HuffPo Pollster - C+6.1 PEC meta-margin C+2.8 (states based only) and the rolling average RCP C+2.6 in the four-way. Average of the approaches is C+3.65. _Even RCP_, with its heavier counting of the trackers than other methods, is more than 2. So point the first, polling going into election day is going to “2 or so” only for a very generous interpretation of “or so” or if you decide that 538 and HuffPo, both historically quite good, don’t count. (And **asahi** ’s predicted tie in the polling by mid-week? Well, someone had to make your predictions look good **addie**!) Note that all except RCP were within 2.4% in 2012 and much closer than that in 2008. The track record of the true aggregators is such that 2.5% or more would be considered a very large polling error. RCP’s being off by 3.2 in '12 was a major outlier, both in that cycle and historically. So point the second, it would need to be a _major_ polling error, and of course one Trumpward. Turnout being dramatically different than expected could do it, but it would have to include major increase in White non-college educated turnout coupled with both significantly decreased Black turnout, no increase in Hispanic turnout, and White college educated voters (especially women) staying home much more than normal. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4610 "2016-11-04T13:16:16Z")
> [@RadioWave](#): > > Is it just me or has one of the old standards been missing from this year’s rotation (“Hillary Clinton is _ **THE MOST** _ liberal candidate _ **EVER** _!”) I remember this from the Gore, Kerry and Obama years but haven’t heard them try it this time. I kind of miss it. My god, you’re right. I miss elections that were about policy positions. This one is whether or not she’s a criminal, and whether or not he’s entirely unfit to run a sewing bee, much less the most powerful nation on earth. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4611 "2016-11-04T13:24:23Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > But voting for a rapist gives you a free ticket right to the pearly gates. Gotcha. And bearing false witness must no longer be a mortal sin either… > > Heaven must then be hell, and hell is actually heaven. War is peace. Slavery is freedom. Ignorance is strength. Back to the Comey thing- is the idea that the FBI would really really enjoy running a police state under a Trump administration? Is that what’s going on here? Tapping everyone’s phones and recording everyone’s internet activity without warrants isn’t enough? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4612 "2016-11-04T14:45:52Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > War is peace. Slavery is freedom. Ignorance is strength. > > Back to the Comey thing- is the idea that the FBI would really really enjoy running a police state under a Trump administration? Is that what’s going on here? Tapping everyone’s phones and recording everyone’s internet activity without warrants isn’t enough? The FBI has 35,000 employees. Of those, 99% have no particular influence on anything. They’re just cops and receptionists and data managers who work in places like Carson City and Providence. All it takes for this nonsense is, well, James Comey, or him and one other high level employee. And it could come from nothing more than animosity. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4613 "2016-11-04T14:55:34Z")
Well, Wang said he’d [eat a bug](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/04/sound-bites-and-bug-bites/) if Trump got over 240 EVS. Hope he doesn’t have to. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4614 "2016-11-04T14:57:58Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > War is peace. Slavery is freedom. Ignorance is strength. > > Back to the Comey thing- is the idea that the **FBI would really really enjoy running a police state under a Trump administration?** Is that what’s going on here? Tapping everyone’s phones and recording everyone’s internet activity without warrants isn’t enough? Be a shame if all that practice goes to waste. ---
**Author:** ![gaffa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e68b1a/32.png) [@gaffa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gaffa)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4615 "2016-11-04T15:14:43Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > War is peace. Slavery is freedom. Ignorance is strength. > > Back to the Comey thing- is the idea that the FBI would really really enjoy running a police state under a Trump administration? Is that what’s going on here? Tapping everyone’s phones and recording everyone’s internet activity without warrants isn’t enough? A policeman’s job is only easy in a police state. - Mike Vargas _A Touch of Evil_ ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4616 "2016-11-04T15:46:33Z")
Positive (assuming you’re pro-D) battleground polls from PPP today: NH: Clinton 48-43 NV: Clinton 48-45 WI: Clinton 48-41 PA: Clinton 48-44 NC: Clinton 49-47 PPP is a Democratic outfit but well regarded on the accuracy front (B+ from 538, 0.2 +R lean) ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4617 "2016-11-04T16:09:19Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > Well, Wang said he’d [eat a bug](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/04/sound-bites-and-bug-bites/) if Trump got over 240 EVS. Hope he doesn’t have to. I’d much rather see him make good on his other promise to eat a bug if HRC wins Texas. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4618 "2016-11-04T16:10:40Z")
Assuming that Clinton wins, is it feasible that the GOP, as some are now promising, will be able to block any supreme court nomination of hers (starting with the one that they blocked from Obama, obviously) for four years? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4619 "2016-11-04T16:11:40Z")
> [@gaffa](#): > > A policeman’s job is only easy in a police state. - Mike Vargas _A Touch of Evil_ I don’t know about easier. But I’m gonna bet it’s a lot more fun. For particularly nasty definitions of “fun”. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4620 "2016-11-04T16:15:06Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Assuming that Clinton wins, is it feasible that the GOP, as some are now promising, will be able to block any supreme court nomination of hers (starting with the one that they blocked from Obama, obviously) for four years? If the Democrats win the Senate (51+ or 50 w/ Kaine as VP) then no because whoever is leading the Senate then would likely threaten to change the filibuster rules. If Republicans keep the Senate, they could easily block any nominees by refusing to bring up the vote although I can’t imagine that being a tenable position for the next four years. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4621 "2016-11-04T16:15:35Z")
> [@gaffa](#): > > A policeman’s job is only easy in a police state. - Mike Vargas _A Touch of Evil_ You know, people say that, but historically speaking, I’m not sure it’s that true. Do police in police states work shorter hours? Are they better paid? Are they more satisfied with their jobs? I need numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4622 "2016-11-04T16:17:58Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > If the Democrats win the Senate (51+ or 50 w/ Kaine as VP) then no because whoever is leading the Senate then would likely threaten to change the filibuster rules. > > If Republicans keep the Senate, they could easily block any nominees by refusing to bring up the vote although I can’t imagine that being a tenable position for the next four years. I didn’t think it was a tenable position for the past year when they’ve been doing it, but the did it and have suffered no discernible repercussions for it, and with the possibility of a Trump presidency still there, might still pull off stealing a supreme court justice. On that note, while I think the GOP blocking Clinton nominees would be grotesque, I don’t think it’s a bit hypocritical for Democrats to block the first Trump nominee unless it’s Garland. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4623 "2016-11-04T16:24:53Z")
> [@](#): > > I’d much rather see him make good on his other promise to eat a bug if HRC wins Texas. Ooh, I didn’t know about that one; does sound good. I guess this comes down to PEC being much more steady than 538 with numbers/predictions? So, after the election, will anyone gather together all the polls/poll aggregates/psychics/etc. who predicted the states correctly (or close to) not only on Nov. 7, but on Nov. 1, Oct. 8, or even Sept. 8? You know, so we know who we’re supposed to pay more attention to a week or a month out? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4624 "2016-11-04T16:26:13Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > I’d much rather see him make good on his other promise to eat a bug if HRC wins Texas. OK, but what kind of bug? If it’s just one of those little gnats and it flies in oyur mouth and you swallow it you’re like “ew” but it happens. If Trump gets over 240 EVs, I want Mr. It’s All Over, Don’t Mind All The Polls Saying It’s Not, Everyone Else Is a Hobbyist to eat a big bug, something you gotta chew. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=230) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277.md?page=232)