# Coal production up? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 31, 2017, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320 "2017-10-31T19:49:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/1 "2017-10-31T19:49:22Z")
> **[Coal's making a comeback, thanks to 'Trump effect'](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coals-making-a-comeback-thanks-to-trump-effect)** > > The coal industry is undergoing a revitalization process with production and prices increasing, thanks in large part to the coal-friendly policies passed by President Donald Trump since he entered the Oval Office in January. It’s Fox, and they aren’t quoting government statistics but a spokesperson for the industry. Howeer, the Dept of Energy seems to approximately confirm his numbers: > **[Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.php)** > > Energy Information Administration - EIA - Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government But forecasts that this is just a one year spike in growth, primariy due to higher natural gas prices. Anyone want to take a shot at explaining what’s actually going on here? Trump’s policies could very well be pushing prices of coal down and natural gas up, so is Trump actually reversing the War on Coal? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/2 "2017-10-31T20:02:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Anyone want to take a shot at explaining what’s actually going on here? Trump’s policies could very well be pushing prices of coal down and natural gas up, so is Trump actually reversing the War on Coal? Yes! Trump has declared war on natural gas. He says that America is the Saudi Arabia of coal, but ignores that America is the America of natural gas. #NoWarOnGas #MakeAmericaGasAgain ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/3 "2017-10-31T20:05:40Z")
Heh. True though, ending the Clear Power Plan would negatively affect natural gas, which is fairly clean. And isn’t most of it produced in America? Is he just transferring wealth from natural gas country to coal country? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/4 "2017-10-31T20:11:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Heh. True though, ending the Clear Power Plan would negatively affect natural gas, which is fairly clean. And isn’t most of it produced in America? Is he just transferring wealth from natural gas country to coal country? No no no, he’s an environmentalist at heart, secretly trying to bring an end to the monstrosity known as “fracking”. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/5 "2017-10-31T20:21:25Z")
> [@](#): > > Anyone want to take a shot at explaining what’s actually going on here? Trump’s policies could very well be pushing prices of coal down and natural gas up, so is Trump actually reversing the War on Coal? I think that coal exports are up this past quarter, so that’s going to have an impact. [Here](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.cfm) is the EIA short term energy report (every time I go to this site I think Peak Oil!): > [@](#): > > ``` > EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from 34% in 2016 to about 31% in 2017 as a result of higher natural gas prices and increased electricity generation from renewables and coal. In 2018, natural gas's generation share is expected to rise to 32%. Coal's forecast generation share rises from 30% last year to 31% in 2017 and is expected to stay at that level in 2018. > > U.S. coal production for September 2017 was an estimated 66 million short tons (MMst), up 1 MMst (1%) from September 2016. Coal production for the first nine months of 2017 was 591 MMst, 62 MMst (12%) higher than in the same period in 2016. Coal production is expected to increase by 8% in 2017 and by less than 1% in 2018. > > Coal exports for the first seven months of 2017 totaled 51 MMst, which was 62% higher than in the same period of 2016. EIA expects growth in coal exports to slow, with exports for all of 2017 forecast at 75 MMst, 15 MMst (24%) higher than the 2016 level. > > ``` If you look at their 2018 projections you can see that they think it’s just a short-term spike. Of course, that doesn’t mean it will play out that way, but I’d say they are probably close. I don’t actually think Trump has had any meaningful positive impact on any of this (or anything else, but that’s just me). This is just standard market forces and I think it would have been pretty much the same if Obama was still in office, or if Hillary had won. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/6 "2017-10-31T20:23:21Z")
This makes me so desperately sad for these workers and their children. Working class people deserve so much more from their political leaders. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/7 "2017-10-31T20:26:05Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > No no no, he’s an environmentalist at heart, secretly trying to bring an end to the monstrosity known as “fracking”. 😉 [“I love nature! It’s the best! I have ALL the best nature!”](http://ohvec.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/57.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/8 "2017-10-31T20:30:07Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > [“I love nature! It’s the best! I have ALL the best nature!”](http://ohvec.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/57.jpg) Seems kind of a shame…why did they leave all those trees standing when they could have cut those down as well. Like a missed opportunity for profit, that… ---
**Author:** ![SamuelA](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@SamuelA](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SamuelA)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/9 "2017-10-31T21:26:33Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Seems kind of a shame…why did they leave all those trees standing when they could have cut those down as well. Like a missed opportunity for profit, that… And the trees are still green! Why not go ahead and make it a toxic waste dump while you’re at it? More wealth for the job creators. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2017, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/10 "2017-10-31T21:43:15Z")
MAGA! ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2017, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/11 "2017-11-01T14:51:01Z")
A president is not an economic maestro moving dials up and down adjusting the economy. When the price of one commodity, natural gas, goes up, demand for substitute commodities, coal, rise. Trump likely has as much to do with this as I do. Production of US coal is down 3 million tons from when Trump was inaugurated. Politicians like to take credit for everything that happens in the country but reality is that the dogs bark and the caravan moves on. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2017, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/12 "2017-11-01T16:15:59Z")
In all seriousness, this sure seems like a blip to me. I can’t see that there’s been any fundamental change in our economy that means that coal now has a bright future. It reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Disco Stu says, “Did you know that from 1977 to 1978, sales of disco records went up by 25%? [pointing to a chart projecting skyrocketing record sales through 2000] If this trend continues, aaaaaaaaaaay!” ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2017, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/13 "2017-11-01T16:43:09Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > MAGA! Make America Gray Again? ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2017, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/14 "2017-11-01T16:44:03Z")
I am privy to a proprietary energy industry publication that I can’t quote from, but in recent months it has been filled with articles saying that energy industry executives are moving to renewables and are unenthusiastic about the current administration’s push for coal. Going by that, it appears ideological and not market-driven. Even the coal folks know [which way the wind is blowing](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/10/27/west-virginia-company-trains-coal-miners-to-install-solar-panels/23257340/). > [@](#): > > “Basically it’s like, what’s next?” said Luke Huffman, property manager for Coalfield Development’s new training facility. “Coal is running to an end here where we’re just starting to take the top of mountains, and we’re starting to just tear them down. So we’ve got to find renewable energy. I want the best thing in the world for all the coal miners, but what happens to them when the coal runs out?” ---
**Author:** ![Kron](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kron/32/12444_2.png) [@Kron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kron)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2017, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/15 "2017-11-01T17:24:41Z")
I live where 42% of all US coal originates (though, for some reason, politician like to talk more about “West Virginia coal miners” when using coal as a football). There has been some uptick in production here, but it still is not doing great. As many have noted, coal is a victim of the glut of natural gas. Around here, we also had a thriving gas industry, until it too became a victim of the glut of natural gas- gas is so cheap that it is unprofitable to get it from Wyoming. Natural gas is cheap, easy to transport, and more efficient to use as a fuel for heating or electricity generation. Our power plants here have added natural gas generation capacity over the last 15 years, even though they are literally built in coal mines, because natural gas is such an inexpensive and easy to manage fuel. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2017, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/16 "2017-11-02T03:00:40Z")
Someone on Daily Kos wrote a diary about this. > **[Thanks to Donald Trump, miners are refusing retraining, throwing their lives...](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/11/1/1711615/-Thanks-to-Donald-Trump-miners-are-refusing-retraining-throwing-their-lives-away-over-his-lies)** > > Donald Trump has been preying on miners from the beginning of his campaign. He’s used them as props. He’s played on their pride and desperation. And he’s used the idea that he’s helping miners to allow miner operators to use forms of mining that... > [@](#): > > In 2010, US coal production was 1.1 billion tons. Production fluctuated over the next five years, but in 2015 it dropped sharply to 897 million tons. It dropped again in 2016 to 728 million tons. That’s actually a bit more than the 31 percent drop Trump indicated. > > However, the biggest reason for the abrupt drop in 2016 wasn’t just the idling of many coal plants through a changeover to natural gas, it was the bankruptcy of the nation’s two largest coal producers. With both Peabody Energy and Arch Coal operating under Chapter 11, the biggest mines in the world were running at reduced rates. Add to that the warmest winter in history, and the demand for coal was reduced… > > Trump’s “up 7.8 percent” actually represents a continued downward trend. Production is only up if compared to the historically low production in the first two quarters of 2016. Compared to the last two quarters, production under Trump has been down … and then down some more. In fact, production dropped by 2.3 percent in just the last quarter. The argument is that coal experienced a decline in 2016 due to multiple major coal companies going bankrupt combined with a mild winter. The numbers showing growth in coal in 2017 are compared to that, which show a slight increase in 2017 but the overall trendline is still clear. Coal production still dropped about ~22% from 2014 to 2017. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2017, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/17 "2017-11-02T14:54:17Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Someone on Daily Kos wrote a diary about this. > The argument is that coal experienced a decline in 2016 due to multiple major coal companies going bankrupt combined with a mild winter. The numbers showing growth in coal in 2017 are compared to that, which show a slight increase in 2017 but the overall trendline is still clear. Coal production still dropped about ~22% from 2014 to 2017. Major coal companies going bankrupt is obviously more of an effect than a cause of reduced coal production. They didn’t go bankrupt for some random reason unrelated to the demand for coal. And if it was attractive for somebody else to run a facility, that somebody else will buy it from a bankrupt company. It’s not as if the mine disappears because the owner goes bankrupt. Otherwise sure, prices for various types of coal like any other commodity vary for lots of reasons not limited to government policies. And supply increases or declines with price. Since there’s always some marginal mine, particular part of a mine, new investment required to maintain production at a mine, etc. which just barely makes economic sense at a given price. If the price rises that capacity is added or maintained, if it falls it’s not. However people in areas the economic fortunes of which vary with coal production would rationally judge whether government action helps or hurts them at the margin. It wouldn’t be rational for them to judge a politician who promised to be pro-coal (say Trump for example) based on changes in the market nothing due w/ govt action. People do that sometimes, but it doesn’t make sense. Trump (attempting) to repeal the Clean Power Plan is positive for coal at the margin and it makes sense for people with an interest in maintaining coal production welcome it. Also it’s entirely plausible that such a policy direction (at least for awhile) could slow down power company plans to substitute for coal\* (at least for awhile), though there’s no explicit statistic on that. So all in all a political blogger dipping into why production has wiggled around in a particular way, and claiming ‘it’s not Trump’ is not very relevant. Though by the same token people championing the little wiggle as a triumph by Trump isn’t either. \*in some cases steam turbine power plants’ boilers can be fueled by coal or NG. But in a lot of cases substitution means a utility would build a new gas turbine combined cycle plant which can burn gas and not coal, and shut down an older steam turbine plant. Or a renewables project, though many of those are state mandated, it’s complicated. Point is, on the fly substitution is only at the margin, and utilities don’t necessarily announce lack of more capital intensive substitution plans because the regulatory environment has changed. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2017, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/18 "2017-11-02T15:09:46Z")
I’m not sure I follow your argument. According to that article, the reason coal is rebounding is because production dropped due to mine bankruptcy and demand dropped due to a mild winter. The overall trend is still clear. People are abandoning coal for many reasons. Clean renewables like solar and wind are cheaper. Less polluting alternatives like natural gas are cheaper. Trump is taking credit for a minor blip that has nothing to do with him or his policy agenda. Coal is temporarily up because last year both supply and demand dropped. However overall demand is still trending downward and will continue to do so. The OP asked about coal production being up. It is up compared to last year for the reasons listed, but the overall trend remains unchanged. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2017, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/19 "2017-11-02T15:57:15Z")
This is the [worst thing](http://www.businessinsider.com/r-awaiting-trumps-coal-comeback-miners-reject-retraining-2017-11) that could happen to coal miners. ---
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2017, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320/20 "2017-11-02T16:08:22Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > This is the [worst thing](http://www.businessinsider.com/r-awaiting-trumps-coal-comeback-miners-reject-retraining-2017-11) that could happen to coal miners. That and, in WV anyway, tell them that the jobs are non-union. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coal-production-up/800320.md?page=2)