# Comparing polls about pols: Poles apart?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/comparing-polls-about-pols-poles-apart/508640
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [September 2, 2009, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/comparing-polls-about-pols-poles-apart/508640 "2009-09-02T15:40:15Z")
**Posts on this page:** 6
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)
#### Post date: [September 2, 2009, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/comparing-polls-about-pols-poles-apart/508640/1 "2009-09-02T15:40:15Z")
[Democrats See Their Congressmen Holding Similar Views to Democratic Voters](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2009/democrats_see_their_congressmen_holding_similar_views_to_democratic_voters)
> [@](#):
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> Just 27% of Democratic voters say the average Democratic member of Congress is more liberal than the average Democrat. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 19% hold the opposite view and think the average Democrat in Congress is more conservative than the average Democratic voter.
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> A solid plurality of 47% say that voters and Congressman in the President’s party are about the same ideologically.
[Republican Voters Say GOP Reps in Congress Still Out of Touch](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2009/republican_voters_say_gop_reps_in_congress_still_out_of_touch)
> [@](#):
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> Most Republican voters (55%) say that the average Republican in Congress is more liberal than the average Republican voter. Twenty-four percent (24%) say the average Republican in Congress holds views about the same as the average Republican voter while just 17% think the Congressional Republicans are more conservative than GOP voters.
I found these poll results really interesting (and further along in both article they talk about how those outside of each party view the alignment between party reps and party voters. Also really interesting).
This seems to suggest that Democrats feel they are getting what they chose moreso than Republicans are–that there’s less of an idea of a split between politicians and voters. That’s not surprising. But I thought it was interesting that voters from both parties tended to judge their reps on the liberal end of the scale, not the conservative. I would honestly have guessed that more Democratic voters would have said that reps are either in line with them or more conservative, not more liberal.
The Republican side doesn’t surprise me quite as much, though I would have thought more of the voters would have found the reps more in tune with their beliefs.
Surprised by any of this? Does it mean anything going forward? Do results like this increase the pressure on Republicans to be more conservative, or is it just more noise?
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### Author:  [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)
#### Post date: [September 2, 2009, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/comparing-polls-about-pols-poles-apart/508640/2 "2009-09-02T15:50:15Z")
It is interesting and Rasmussen I believe is a reliable polling agency.
That said polls are notoriously tricky things even when done as best as the science allows and by a credible polling agency. IIRC just recently it was shown dropping the word “choice” from a poll dramatically changed the polling result.
In short take them with a grain of salt. I think they can certainly represent a data point and are worthy of discussion but they need to be viewed in their proper light.
So far my favorite source for polling analysis is Nate Silver at [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com). He seems to really know his stuff and has a single minded dedication to knowing what the numbers are really telling us without regard to political ideology.
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### Author:  [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)
#### Post date: [September 2, 2009, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/comparing-polls-about-pols-poles-apart/508640/3 "2009-09-02T16:33:40Z")
Yes, I’m a big fan of 538.
For these polls, I wonder if this is part and parcel of the idea I see floated about in right circles about how conservative the American populace is. Do voters just overestimate the conservatism of everyone around them? I know for a while it seemed like “liberal” was a dirty word, so maybe that’s all this is.
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### Author:  [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2009, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/comparing-polls-about-pols-poles-apart/508640/4 "2009-09-06T06:02:24Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#):
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> Surprised by any of this? Does it mean anything going forward? Do results like this increase the pressure on Republicans to be more conservative, or is it just more noise?
Whether or not the politicians realize it, to most voters that would identify as conservative, “conservative,” means “like me,” or “like my parents/preacher/old boss/(other defining figure),” not something objective in policy. So no matter how a Congressman differs from someone in opinion–unless he’s a) more culturally rightie (esp. if in an irksome way) or b) more like one’s defining conservative figure than one is oneself–he’s very likely “more liberal.”
I believe in balanced budgets & you favor tax cuts? You’re more liberal.
I believe in tax cuts & you favor balanced budgets? You’re more liberal.
etc.
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### Author:  [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)
#### Post date: [September 6, 2009, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/comparing-polls-about-pols-poles-apart/508640/5 "2009-09-06T06:59:56Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#):
>
> It is interesting and Rasmussen I believe is a reliable polling agency.
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> \< snip \>
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> So far my favorite source for polling analysis is Nate Silver at [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com). He seems to really know his stuff and has a single minded dedication to knowing what the numbers are really telling us without regard to political ideology.
Speaking of [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com), Rasmussen is rated [there](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings). He’s apparently not some bottom-of-the-barrel pollster. I’ve heard Rasmussen described elsewhere as leaning conservative somewhat.
Frankly, I’m not surprised that Republican voters find the Republican legislators too liberal. The Republican base has gone so far to the right, so round the bend that a politician who closely matched their positions would be unelectable in much of the country. The Sarah Palin effect.
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### Author:  [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)
#### Post date: [September 7, 2009, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/comparing-polls-about-pols-poles-apart/508640/6 "2009-09-07T06:43:32Z")
Fivethirtyeight rated Rasmussen for election polling. When it comes to opinion polling, Rasmussen gives me some pause. Their approval numbers for Obama have been consistaly out of whack compared to [just about everyone else’s](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html), especially in their disapproval numbers. Either Rasmussen has a different way of polling or else they just have a lot of very cranky people in their phonebook to constantly be 9-20 points off in net approval from everyone else.
Nate Silver touched on this in one of his columns stating that it’s easy to measure someone’s success in election polling because eventually voting day comes around and you can see how accurate that firm’s polls were. But there isn’t really a way to test how accurately they’re judging opinion.