# Confidence Pool Results Thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [November 3, 2020, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675 "2020-11-03T23:01:51Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 14\
**Page:** 1

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/1 "2020-11-03T23:01:51Z")

</div>

I’ll be posting leaderboard updates to this thread as states are called. We almost certainly won’t get all the results tonight, but things should start to take shape as the evening progresses.

Current Leaderboard

| Name | Month | Score | Max |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Euphonious\_Polemic | October | 0 | 120 |
| Red\_Wiggler | October | 0 | 120 |
| Buck\_Godot | October | 0 | 120 |
| El\_Kabong | October | 0 | 120 |
| furt | October | 0 | 120 |
| Mahaloth | October | 0 | 120 |
| iiandyiiii | October | 0 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | October | 0 | 120 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | October | 0 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 0 | 120 |
| BobLibDem | September | 0 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 0 | 120 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 0 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | August | 0 | 120 |
| BobLibDem | August | 0 | 120 |
| eschrodinger | August | 0 | 120 |
| iiandyiiii | August | 0 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 0 | 120 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | July | 0 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | July | 0 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 0 | 120 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | June | 0 | 120 |
| Munch | June | 0 | 120 |
| BobLibDem | June | 0 | 120 |
| TroutMan | June | 0 | 120 |
| Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | June | 0 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | June | 0 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 0 | 120 |
| FlikTheBlue | May | 0 | 120 |
| Fretful\_Porpentine | May | 0 | 120 |
| BobLibDem | May | 0 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | May | 0 | 120 |
| septimus | May | 0 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 0 | 120 |

There’s also a Google Sheet of all the entries and the leaderboard and such:

> **[SDMB confidence pool 2020 swing states](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o921_sNgCjQnXwwm_scunR_3k4YmvCbY4gWRCSpJeGo/edit?usp=sharing)**
>
> Leaderboard
> 
> Name,Month,Score,Max,Hits,Misses,Race,Result,Markdown...

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/2 "2020-11-04T03:31:55Z")

</div>

We finally have a called swing state race. NH -\> D

Literally everyone picked this correctly, but @Red_Wiggler, @Kolak_of_Twilo @Dr.Winston_OBoogie, and @Fretful_Porpentine take the lead.

| Name | Month | Score | Max |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Red\_Wiggler | October | 15 | 120 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 15 | 120 |
| Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | June | 15 | 120 |
| Fretful\_Porpentine | May | 15 | 120 |
| Buck\_Godot | October | 14 | 120 |
| El\_Kabong | October | 14 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | October | 14 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 14 | 120 |
| Munch | June | 14 | 120 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | October | 13 | 120 |
| BobLibDem | August | 13 | 120 |
| eschrodinger | August | 13 | 120 |
| iiandyiiii | August | 13 | 120 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | July | 13 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | July | 13 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 13 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 13 | 120 |
| iiandyiiii | October | 12 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 12 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | August | 12 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | June | 12 | 120 |
| BobLibDem | September | 11 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 10 | 120 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | June | 10 | 120 |
| BobLibDem | June | 10 | 120 |
| TroutMan | June | 10 | 120 |
| BobLibDem | May | 10 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | May | 10 | 120 |
| septimus | May | 10 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 10 | 120 |
| FlikTheBlue | May | 8 | 120 |
| furt | October | 7 | 120 |
| Mahaloth | October | 6 | 120 |
| Euphonious\_Polemic | October | 4 | 120 |

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/3 "2020-11-04T05:45:30Z")

</div>

Florida called.

@furt, @Kolak_of_Twilo, and me in the lead.

| Name | Month | Score | Max |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | June | 22 | 120 |
| furt | October | 19 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 19 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | October | 18 | 120 |
| Munch | June | 18 | 120 |
| FlikTheBlue | May | 18 | 120 |
| Red\_Wiggler | October | 16 | 120 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 16 | 120 |
| Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | June | 16 | 120 |
| septimus | May | 16 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 15 | 120 |
| Fretful\_Porpentine | May | 15 | 119 |
| Buck\_Godot | October | 14 | 117 |
| El\_Kabong | October | 14 | 118 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | October | 14 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | August | 14 | 120 |
| BobLibDem | August | 13 | 113 |
| eschrodinger | August | 13 | 113 |
| iiandyiiii | August | 13 | 111 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | July | 13 | 117 |
| JKellyMap | July | 13 | 119 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 13 | 113 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 13 | 115 |
| JKellyMap | May | 13 | 120 |
| iiandyiiii | October | 12 | 115 |
| JKellyMap | June | 12 | 117 |
| BobLibDem | September | 11 | 117 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 11 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 10 | 119 |
| BobLibDem | June | 10 | 115 |
| TroutMan | June | 10 | 118 |
| BobLibDem | May | 10 | 117 |
| Mahaloth | October | 8 | 120 |
| Euphonious\_Polemic | October | 4 | 111 |

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/4 "2020-11-04T14:44:24Z")

</div>

Good morning.

| Name | Month | Score | Max |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| JKellyMap | July | 69 | 119 |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 67 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | August | 67 | 120 |
| septimus | May | 67 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 63 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 63 | 120 |
| FlikTheBlue | May | 62 | 107 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | June | 61 | 112 |
| TroutMan | June | 60 | 115 |
| JKellyMap | June | 60 | 117 |
| JKellyMap | May | 60 | 120 |
| furt | October | 58 | 115 |
| Euphonious\_Polemic | October | 57 | 111 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 57 | 119 |
| Fretful\_Porpentine | May | 57 | 112 |
| BobLibDem | May | 57 | 116 |
| Buck\_Godot | October | 55 | 117 |
| JKellyMap | October | 55 | 118 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 51 | 113 |
| Munch | June | 51 | 120 |
| Red\_Wiggler | October | 49 | 115 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 48 | 115 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 46 | 112 |
| Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | June | 46 | 108 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | October | 45 | 112 |
| BobLibDem | September | 45 | 115 |
| eschrodinger | August | 43 | 113 |
| El\_Kabong | October | 42 | 115 |
| BobLibDem | June | 41 | 108 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | July | 39 | 108 |
| Mahaloth | October | 37 | 112 |
| iiandyiiii | October | 37 | 109 |
| BobLibDem | August | 36 | 110 |
| iiandyiiii | August | 36 | 106 |

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/5 "2020-11-04T19:22:18Z")

</div>

Here’s what I have for called races right now per CNN. They just called Wisconsin for Biden.

| Race | Result |
| --- | --- |
| Arizona | N/A |
| Florida | R |
| Georgia | N/A |
| Iowa | R |
| Maine | D |
| Maine CD-02 | N/A |
| Michigan | N/A |
| Minnesota | D |
| Nebraska CD-02 | D |
| New Hampshire | D |
| North Carolina | N/A |
| Ohio | R |
| Pennsylvania | N/A |
| Texas | R |
| Wisconsin | D |

Here’s the leaderboard.

| Name | Month | Score | Max |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 93 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 87 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | July | 87 | 119 |
| JKellyMap | August | 84 | 120 |
| Buck\_Godot | October | 82 | 117 |
| septimus | May | 82 | 119 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 81 | 120 |
| TroutMan | June | 80 | 115 |
| JKellyMap | October | 78 | 118 |
| Munch | June | 77 | 120 |
| JKellyMap | June | 76 | 117 |
| JKellyMap | May | 76 | 120 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 75 | 119 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 75 | 113 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | June | 75 | 112 |
| Red\_Wiggler | October | 73 | 115 |
| BobLibDem | May | 73 | 116 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 72 | 115 |
| FlikTheBlue | May | 71 | 104 |
| Fretful\_Porpentine | May | 70 | 107 |
| furt | October | 69 | 113 |
| BobLibDem | September | 68 | 115 |
| eschrodinger | August | 67 | 113 |
| Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | June | 67 | 108 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | October | 66 | 112 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 66 | 112 |
| Mahaloth | October | 64 | 112 |
| Euphonious\_Polemic | October | 62 | 111 |
| El\_Kabong | October | 62 | 115 |
| iiandyiiii | October | 62 | 109 |
| iiandyiiii | August | 61 | 106 |
| BobLibDem | June | 60 | 108 |
| BobLibDem | August | 58 | 110 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | July | 58 | 108 |

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/6 "2020-11-04T21:28:52Z")

</div>

Update: CNN calls Michigan for Biden.

| Name | Month | Score | Max |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 104 | 120 |
| septimus | May | 102 | 119 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 101 | 120 |
| Buck\_Godot | October | 99 | 117 |
| JKellyMap | October | 99 | 118 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 98 | 120 |
| TroutMan | June | 96 | 115 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 95 | 119 |
| JKellyMap | July | 95 | 119 |
| JKellyMap | August | 94 | 119 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 92 | 113 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 92 | 115 |
| Munch | June | 90 | 112 |
| Mahaloth | October | 87 | 112 |
| eschrodinger | August | 87 | 113 |
| JKellyMap | June | 87 | 117 |
| JKellyMap | May | 86 | 120 |
| Red\_Wiggler | October | 85 | 111 |
| BobLibDem | May | 85 | 110 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | October | 84 | 112 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | June | 84 | 105 |
| BobLibDem | September | 83 | 111 |
| El\_Kabong | October | 82 | 115 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 78 | 99 |
| Fretful\_Porpentine | May | 78 | 104 |
| furt | October | 77 | 108 |
| FlikTheBlue | May | 77 | 104 |
| iiandyiiii | August | 76 | 103 |
| iiandyiiii | October | 75 | 101 |
| BobLibDem | June | 74 | 101 |
| Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | June | 74 | 105 |
| BobLibDem | August | 73 | 105 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | July | 72 | 101 |
| Euphonious\_Polemic | October | 68 | 98 |

This eliminates some entries:

@Kolak_of_Twilo, August  
@iiandyiiii, August  
@iiandyiiii, October  
@BobLibDem, June  
@Kolak_of_Twilo, July  
@Euphonious_Polemic, October

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2020, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/7 "2020-11-06T17:29:23Z")

</div>

I was right about Florida — NEVER trust that state to do the right thing! — and also North Carolina (close, but a Trump win), and Arizona (close, but a Biden win), and of course Wisconsin and Michigan (though I never expected either to be so close). And Iowa.

And, I was right about Georgia! (Assuming Biden wins there. Even if he doesn’t, I was right about a genuine surge there in Biden support, well beyond the national average shift).

My one serious error was with Ohio. I thought Biden would squeak by there. Biden is just so Ohio-ish, and he helped save part of their economy (parts for autos) in 2009. But I was wrong. It will be interesting to see why, when we get to analyze the data over coming weeks.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2020, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/8 "2020-11-06T17:44:36Z")

</div>

@JKellyMap, do you have any methodology you could expand on? What were your main sources of data?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2020, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/9 "2020-11-06T19:12:34Z")

</div>

Ha! I started with [FiveThirtyEight.com](http://FiveThirtyEight.com)’s “snake graph,” then looked for signs of growing enthusiasm (and found it in Georgia). I live in Wisconsin, and couldn’t bear the thought of it going for Trump again. North Carolina still just feels a bit too “southern,” and I didn’t see signs of enthusiasm there. Arizona, on the other hand, seemed “maverick” enough, steadily Bidenish enough, and demographically interesting enough to keep in Biden’s camp.

As for Florida, I was biased by the 2000 fiasco. Even since, I’ve trusted that stupid state as far as I can throw it. (I love the Captiva-Sanibel coast…and Miami/Miami Beach is funkier than I’d thought…and the whole state fascinates me…the Keys are incredible…but I’m sorry, the voting public just perennially disappoints.)

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2020, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/10 "2020-11-07T15:24:52Z")

</div>

No change in the results yet, but I have added Hits and Misses columns to the leaderboard.

It looks like @JKellyMap is going to win. Georgia is going to be my only miss on a couple entries (one of which is from May!) and I’m OK with that. I love a blue Georgia.

More details and analysis to follow when the states are finally called.

| Name | Month | Score | Max | Hits | Misses |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 104 | 120 | 11 | 0 |
| septimus | May | 102 | 119 | 10 | 1 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 101 | 120 | 11 | 0 |
| Buck\_Godot | October | 99 | 117 | 10 | 1 |
| JKellyMap | October | 99 | 118 | 10 | 1 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 98 | 120 | 11 | 0 |
| TroutMan | June | 96 | 115 | 9 | 2 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 95 | 119 | 10 | 1 |
| JKellyMap | July | 95 | 119 | 10 | 1 |
| JKellyMap | August | 94 | 119 | 10 | 1 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 92 | 113 | 10 | 1 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 92 | 115 | 10 | 1 |
| Munch | June | 90 | 112 | 10 | 1 |
| Mahaloth | October | 87 | 112 | 9 | 2 |
| eschrodinger | August | 87 | 113 | 10 | 1 |
| JKellyMap | June | 87 | 117 | 10 | 1 |
| JKellyMap | May | 86 | 120 | 11 | 0 |
| Red\_Wiggler | October | 85 | 111 | 9 | 2 |
| BobLibDem | May | 85 | 110 | 8 | 3 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | October | 84 | 112 | 10 | 1 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | June | 84 | 105 | 9 | 2 |
| BobLibDem | September | 83 | 111 | 8 | 3 |
| El\_Kabong | October | 82 | 115 | 9 | 2 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 78 | 99 | 9 | 2 |
| Fretful\_Porpentine | May | 78 | 104 | 7 | 4 |
| furt | October | 77 | 108 | 7 | 4 |
| FlikTheBlue | May | 77 | 104 | 9 | 2 |
| iiandyiiii | August | 76 | 103 | 8 | 3 |
| iiandyiiii | October | 75 | 101 | 7 | 4 |
| BobLibDem | June | 74 | 101 | 7 | 4 |
| Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | June | 74 | 105 | 8 | 3 |
| BobLibDem | August | 73 | 105 | 7 | 4 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | July | 72 | 101 | 8 | 3 |
| Euphonious\_Polemic | October | 68 | 98 | 9 | 2 |

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2020, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/11 "2020-11-07T17:29:55Z")

</div>

Actual update with the PA call…

| Name | Month | Score | Max | Hits | Misses |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 111 | 120 | 12 | 0 |
| JKellyMap | October | 109 | 118 | 11 | 1 |
| Buck\_Godot | October | 108 | 117 | 11 | 1 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 107 | 120 | 12 | 0 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 106 | 120 | 12 | 0 |
| septimus | May | 105 | 119 | 11 | 1 |
| JKellyMap | July | 104 | 119 | 11 | 1 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 103 | 115 | 11 | 1 |
| JKellyMap | August | 102 | 119 | 11 | 1 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 102 | 113 | 11 | 1 |
| Munch | June | 102 | 112 | 11 | 1 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 101 | 119 | 11 | 1 |
| Mahaloth | October | 100 | 112 | 10 | 2 |
| TroutMan | June | 100 | 115 | 10 | 2 |
| BobLibDem | May | 99 | 110 | 9 | 3 |
| JKellyMap | May | 99 | 120 | 12 | 0 |
| eschrodinger | August | 98 | 113 | 11 | 1 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | October | 95 | 112 | 11 | 1 |
| Red\_Wiggler | October | 94 | 111 | 10 | 2 |
| JKellyMap | June | 94 | 117 | 11 | 1 |
| BobLibDem | September | 92 | 111 | 9 | 3 |
| El\_Kabong | October | 91 | 115 | 10 | 2 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | June | 89 | 105 | 10 | 2 |
| Fretful\_Porpentine | May | 87 | 104 | 8 | 4 |
| iiandyiiii | August | 86 | 103 | 9 | 3 |
| BobLibDem | June | 86 | 101 | 8 | 4 |
| iiandyiiii | October | 85 | 101 | 8 | 4 |
| Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | June | 85 | 105 | 9 | 3 |
| BobLibDem | August | 84 | 105 | 8 | 4 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | July | 84 | 101 | 9 | 3 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 83 | 99 | 10 | 2 |
| FlikTheBlue | May | 83 | 104 | 10 | 2 |
| furt | October | 80 | 108 | 8 | 4 |
| Euphonious\_Polemic | October | 75 | 98 | 10 | 2 |

Seven more eliminations.

@BobLibDem, May  
@Kolak_of_Twilo, June  
@Fretful_Porpentine, May  
@Dr.Winston_OBoogie, June  
@BobLibDem, August  
@FlikTheBlue, May  
@furt, October

Google sheet:

> **[SDMB confidence pool 2020 swing states](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o921_sNgCjQnXwwm_scunR_3k4YmvCbY4gWRCSpJeGo/edit?usp=sharing)**
>
> Leaderboard
> 
> Name,Month,Score,Max,Hits,Misses,Race,Result,Markdown...

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2020, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/12 "2020-11-13T19:41:48Z")

</div>

NBC has finally called every EV awarding entity. I’m sure AP, CNN, etc will follow shortly with no surprises.

Final results…

| Name | Month | Score | Hits | Misses |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| JKellyMap | October | 118 | 14 | 1 |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 115 | 13 | 2 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 113 | 14 | 1 |
| JKellyMap | August | 113 | 13 | 2 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 113 | 14 | 1 |
| JKellyMap | July | 112 | 13 | 2 |
| septimus | May | 111 | 13 | 2 |
| Buck\_Godot | October | 110 | 12 | 3 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 110 | 12 | 3 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 108 | 13 | 2 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 108 | 12 | 3 |
| JKellyMap | May | 108 | 13 | 2 |
| Mahaloth | October | 107 | 11 | 4 |
| TroutMan | June | 106 | 11 | 4 |
| El\_Kabong | October | 105 | 12 | 3 |
| Red\_Wiggler | October | 104 | 12 | 3 |
| JKellyMap | June | 104 | 13 | 2 |
| Munch | June | 102 | 11 | 4 |
| eschrodinger | August | 101 | 13 | 2 |
| BobLibDem | May | 101 | 10 | 5 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | October | 99 | 12 | 3 |
| BobLibDem | September | 98 | 10 | 5 |
| iiandyiiii | August | 97 | 11 | 4 |
| iiandyiiii | October | 95 | 10 | 5 |
| BobLibDem | June | 95 | 9 | 6 |
| BobLibDem | August | 93 | 9 | 6 |
| Fretful\_Porpentine | May | 93 | 10 | 5 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | June | 91 | 11 | 4 |
| Euphonious\_Polemic | October | 90 | 12 | 3 |
| furt | October | 89 | 9 | 6 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | July | 89 | 10 | 5 |
| FlikTheBlue | May | 89 | 12 | 3 |
| Kolak\_of\_Twilo | August | 87 | 11 | 4 |
| Dr.Winston\_OBoogie | June | 87 | 10 | 5 |

@JKellyMap is the overall winner and won three of the six monthly contests (having only entered five). I also won three of the months and finished second in the three months that JKellyMap won. Ten of the top 12 entries overall, including all of the top six, were either JKellyMap or myself.

I will be updating each of the monthly threads with the results for that month.

Thanks to all who participated.

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**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2020, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/13 "2020-11-13T20:02:26Z")

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🙂 Thanks for setting it up, keeping it going, and doing the calculating. It was a useful exercise to ponder this very important process as it enfolded.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [November 13, 2020, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confidence-pool-results-thread/924675/14 "2020-11-13T21:01:57Z")

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You’re welcome. I really enjoyed doing it.

I’m somewhat amazed that my May entry tied for 3rd overall and correctly picked the lean of 14 of 15 states. That entry, and all of mine, was very straightforwardly derived from PredictIt.