# Confirmation of Climate change - observable by human senses ? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [April 4, 2018, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807 "2018-04-04T14:18:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/1 "2018-04-04T14:18:59Z")
Are any weather related phenomenon, hot summer days, longer winters, more number of hurricanes, or other phenomena like these in the contiguous United States can be definite proof ( definite as in statistically significant) of climate change. This is all based on observations before the year 2020 ? Excluded are observations made with sophisticated instruments. My understanding is that all weather related events for the next few decades fall in the domain of statistical noise. Is that correct ? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/2 "2018-04-04T14:25:13Z")
Individual events are each below the noise level. The sum total of all events together over ten years, however, reveals quite a clear signal. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/3 "2018-04-04T14:28:20Z")
I love that thermometers are considered sophisticated equipment. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/4 "2018-04-04T14:34:37Z")
Here you go: > **[Hottest Months on Record Have Something in Common | Climate Central](https://www.climatecentral.org/news/hottest-months-global-warming-20797)** > > The record run of planetary heat has rewritten the record books. The hottest fifteen months on record have all occurred within the past three years. The most recent record-setting cold month was back in 1929; the rest of the coldest 15 months on record are scattered in the late 1800s and early 1900s. We haven’t even had a “cooler than normal” month in over three decades. Not sure about the OP’s proscription against sophisticated instruments. The assessments of hottest/coldest months are based on global average temperature, which requires a huge array of temperature sensors. I suppose you could argue that this is nonetheless measurable by human senses; in lieu of thermometers, you’d just need to survey people all over the world to confirm that the weather in their location was warmer than what they were used to for that time of year. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/5 "2018-04-04T14:37:30Z")
The real issue is how to determine climate change using non-long-term trends in data. Because that’s not something humans do very well at all. It might even be why we invented science! Or, to go the jokey route: > **[Cold](https://xkcd.com/1321/)** > > 'You see the same pattern all over. Take Detroit--' 'Hold on. Why do you know all these statistics offhand?' 'Oh, um, no idea. I definitely spend my evenings hanging out with friends, and not curating a REALLY NEAT database of temperature statistics. Because, pshh, who would want to do that, right? Also, snowfall records.' Or a bit more long term: > **[Earth Temperature Timeline](https://xkcd.com/1732/)** > > \[After setting your car on fire\] Listen, your car's temperature has changed before. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/6 "2018-04-04T14:54:11Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > My understanding is that all weather related events for the next few decades fall in the domain of statistical noise. Is that correct ? [Statistical noise](https://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/statistical-noise) > [@](#): > > Statistical noise is unexplained variability within a data sample. The term noise, in this context, came from signal processing where it was used to refer to unwanted electrical or electromagnetic energy that degrades the quality of signals and data. The presence of noise means that the results of sampling might not be duplicated if the process were repeated. The warming statistics are massive and consistent. They are the opposite of statistical noise. Therefore, your statement is the opposite of correct. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/7 "2018-04-04T15:07:55Z")
Best evidence anyone can see: The accelerated loss of cap ice, a natural thermometer. Not only at the poles but in glaciers of the USA. > **[Time-lapse proof of extreme ice loss](https://www.ted.com/talks/james_balog_time_lapse_proof_of_extreme_ice_loss)** > > Photographer James Balog shares new image sequences from the Extreme Ice Survey, a network of time-lapse cameras recording glaciers receding at an alarming rate, some of the most vivid evidence yet of climate change. (Short TED video) > [@](#): > > Photographer James Balog shares new image sequences from the Extreme Ice Survey, a network of time-lapse cameras recording glaciers receding at an alarming rate, some of the most vivid evidence yet of climate change. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/8 "2018-04-04T15:15:58Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Best evidence anyone can see: > > The accelerated loss of cap ice, a natural thermometer. Not only at the poles but in glaciers of the USA. > > [James Balog: Time-lapse proof of extreme ice loss | TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/james_balog_time_lapse_proof_of_extreme_ice_loss) > (Short TED video) As has been pointed out, no individual weather event can confirm climate change. Climate change is demonstrated by the change in the frequency of events. But the impact of long term changes in the frequency of events can be observed rather easily. The retreat of glaciers and the melting of ice caps is one of them. Another is changes in the distributions of plants and animals. In the US, for example, many species of birds occur farther north than they used to in previous decades. Likewise in the tropics the distributions of plants and animals is changing with altitude as high mountains become warmer. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/9 "2018-04-04T16:05:53Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > As has been pointed out, no individual weather event can confirm climate change. Climate change is demonstrated by the change in the frequency of events. > > But the impact of long term changes in the frequency of events can be observed rather easily. The retreat of glaciers and the melting of ice caps is one of them. Another is changes in the distributions of plants and animals. In the US, for example, many species of birds occur farther north than they used to in previous decades. Likewise in the tropics the distributions of plants and animals is changing with altitude as high mountains become warmer. Thanks Colibri. So what it feels like: an unusually hot day or hot month or too many hurricanes for the season; are not a scientific confirmation of Climate change (nor is it a confirmation of no climate change). ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/10 "2018-04-04T16:09:18Z")
> [@Grey](#): > > I love that thermometers are considered sophisticated equipment. What’s with the snarky response ? As I understood the thermometers used in Climate change research have two to three decimals of significant digits. Or are they common household thermometers ? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/11 "2018-04-04T16:11:31Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > So what it feels like: an unusually hot day or hot month or too many hurricanes for the season; are not a scientific confirmation of Climate change (nor is it a confirmation of no climate change). Correct. And similarly, a snowstorm in DC (and [a U.S. Senator holding a snowball](https://www.cnn.com/2015/02/26/politics/james-inhofe-snowball-climate-change/index.html)) doesn’t disprove climate change. ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/12 "2018-04-04T16:29:21Z")
Climate change occurs on a scale too vast for human senses. Human _memory_ is how it can be detected and tracked. Writing is how we store human memory outside of these fragile vessels we call our bodies. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/13 "2018-04-04T17:04:02Z")
Do you consider a tide gauge to be a “sophisticated instrument”? The [sea level rose](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/) by about 6 inches in the past 100 years. ---
**Author:** ![pdhenry](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pdhenry/32/5561_2.png) [@pdhenry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdhenry)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/14 "2018-04-04T17:17:38Z")
Closely paralleling the rise in sea levels would be the very noticeable recession of most glaciers on the planet. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/15 "2018-04-04T17:39:19Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > As has been pointed out, no individual weather event can confirm climate change. Climate change is demonstrated by the change in the frequency of events. > > But the impact of long term changes in the frequency of events can be observed rather easily. The retreat of glaciers and the melting of ice caps is one of them. Another is changes in the distributions of plants and animals. In the US, for example, many species of birds occur farther north than they used to in previous decades. Likewise in the tropics the distributions of plants and animals is changing with altitude as high mountains become warmer. Yes, I have to add too that I was referring to the human sense of sight. While time lapsed, the examples presented are indeed about how through the decades and years the ice is clearly retreating. Sure, a single observation on location will not make that apparent, but what I wanted to point out is that there would be an even bigger act of denial to refuse to compare the images of the past with the present. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/16 "2018-04-04T18:20:20Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > Thanks Colibri. So what it feels like: an unusually hot day or hot month or too many hurricanes for the season; are not a scientific confirmation of Climate change (nor is it a confirmation of no climate change). An individual event is a data point. Statistics combines data points to test whether they are collectively meaningful or over time point to longer-term trends. The difference is critical. For a simplified example: The average temperature for a particular day at a given spot is a data point. The movement of the average temperature over time provides statistical meaning to statements about change in that period. The collection of all average temperature for all spots over time is the basis for understanding climate change. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/17 "2018-04-04T18:30:54Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > My understanding is that all weather related events for the next few decades fall in the domain of statistical noise. Is that correct ? What information did you use to reach that understanding? ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/18 "2018-04-04T20:13:45Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > What’s with the snarky response ? As I understood the thermometers used in Climate change research have two to three decimals of significant digits. Or are they common household thermometers ? They are the same technology as a household thermometer, or at least used to be and can be. You just need to have a thinner tube to allow for a finer reading. ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/19 "2018-04-04T20:14:53Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > This is all based on observations before the year 2020 ? You want observations from the future? ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2018, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807/20 "2018-04-04T20:31:04Z")
> [@naita](#): > > They are the same technology as a household thermometer, or at least used to be and can be. You just need to have a thinner tube to allow for a finer reading. Cite please ? Whenever I have used mercury thermometers for high resolution, I have found them limited to a resolution to about 0.05C. And they have to be read in conjunction with a correction curve that accounts for the manufacturing variability in the bulb/capillary. It’s nothing like a household thermometer. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/confirmation-of-climate-change-observable-by-human-senses/811807.md?page=2)