# Congressional math: majorities and vacancies **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 8, 2026, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486 "2026-01-08T21:00:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2026, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/41 "2026-04-17T19:40:17Z")
[https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/16/politics/new-jersey-special-election-analilia-mejia-joe-hathaway](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/16/politics/new-jersey-special-election-analilia-mejia-joe-hathaway) > Mejia will defeat Republican Joe Hathaway, a member of the Randolph Township council. She will fill the remainder of the term for the seat [**Mikie Sherrill vacated after being elected New Jersey governor**](https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2025%2F11%2F04%2Fpolitics%2Fnj-governor-mikie-sherrill-wins&data=05%7C02%7Cnomaan.merchant%40cnn.com%7C90274c7659b34c91475508de9bde0552%7C0eb48825e8714459bc72d0ecd68f1f39%7C0%7C0%7C639119575061521831%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=cTQQl8n32p9gcliUrfPP76DmJqJ7ZoJqxzBhM%2BSYybM%3D&reserved=0) in November. > > After winning a crowded primary in February, Mejia was heavily favored in a district where there are about 65,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, according to the [**state’s Department of Elections**](https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nj.gov%2Fstate%2Felections%2Fassets%2Fpdf%2Fsvrs-reports%2F2026%2F2026-04-voter-registration-by-congressional-district.pdf&data=05%7C02%7Cnomaan.merchant%40cnn.com%7C90274c7659b34c91475508de9bde0552%7C0eb48825e8714459bc72d0ecd68f1f39%7C0%7C0%7C639119575061581394%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=dsyRglvwLNtXl8AgUJVh7EqKut3lZOEXVQmbFhBY41o%3D&reserved=0). Mejia united most of the Democratic Party behind her, including former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who ran in the primary and lost after [**facing a barrage of spending**](https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2026%2F03%2F15%2Fpolitics%2Fdemocrats-primaries-aipac-israel&data=05%7C02%7Cnomaan.merchant%40cnn.com%7C90274c7659b34c91475508de9bde0552%7C0eb48825e8714459bc72d0ecd68f1f39%7C0%7C0%7C639119575061631078%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=qniIp5zB0pTOuatTptbJijcgUgfC9H4pU46Abu9BUrs%3D&reserved=0) from a group linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2026, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/42 "2026-04-17T19:51:16Z")
Yeah, AIPAC really screwed up. Malinowski wasn’t an Israel absolutist, so they went after him really hard. I suppose they were hoping to do enough damage that he would lose to the Republican? Instead, Mejia is joining the Squad. I don’t know Mejia’s exact position on Israel and the Palestinians, but it’s certainly much more sympathetic towards the Palestinians than Malinowski would have been. Doing a tiny bit of googling, looks like Mejia accused Israel of genocide, so I think it would be fair to say that AIPAC really screwed up. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2026, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/43 "2026-04-17T20:05:28Z")
There was a bizarre situation in the Democratic primary for the open seat in deep-blue IL-9 this year. There was a wealthy guy who was self-financing his run as the “moderate, pro-Israel Democrat”. Which is pretty much exactly the opposite of what 9th District Democrats were looking for, but there was at least some chance he might have squeaked through if the progressive vote split three or four ways. But AIPAC, for some reason, decided to throw a bunch of money at a DIFFERENT pro-Israel candidate, absolutely guaranteeing that neither of them had a prayer of winning. Never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake… ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2026, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/44 "2026-04-17T21:24:21Z")
Now that NJ 11 has had their election, here’s the current breakdown of the House of Representatives: Rep: 218 (includes one Independent who caucuses with the Rs.) Dem: 214 Vacant: 3 And the upcoming by (special) elections: CA 01 – primary: Jun 2; general: Aug 4 [R favored] CA 14 – primary: Jun 16; general: Aug 18 [D favored] TX 23 – date not set yet. [district is R+7, so a flip is possible] As far as has been reported, Gov Abbott has still not set a date for TX 23. A bit of history might give a clue as to why. The last time Texas had a open seat, it was in a very blue district. Abbott, seeking to keep a D out of the House for as long as possible, scheduled the election some 11 months after it became open. In apparent retaliation, when a very red district in California became open, Gov Newsom scheduled it as far out as California law allowed. That’s the CA 01 election in the list above. Then when a very blue district became open in California, Newsom scheduled it as soon as the law allowed. That resulted in the overlap of election dates of CA 14 with CA 01, even though the seats became open 3 months apart. So what’s Abbott going to do about a district that’s R but not overwhelmingly so? The Dems have been outperforming their previous results in election after election by more than the R+7 percentage points that TX 23 has. So he may be worried about the potential flip of the seat. It’s quite possible he’ll leave the seat open until the Nov election. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2026, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/45 "2026-04-20T15:01:39Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > There was a bizarre situation in the Democratic primary for the open seat in deep-blue IL-9 this year. There was a wealthy guy who was self-financing his run as the “moderate, pro-Israel Democrat”. Which is pretty much exactly the opposite of what 9th District Democrats were looking for, but there was at least some chance he might have squeaked through if the progressive vote split three or four ways. But AIPAC, for some reason, decided to throw a bunch of money at a DIFFERENT pro-Israel candidate, absolutely guaranteeing that neither of them had a prayer of winning. They seemed particularly irked at Kat Abughazaleh who was openly anti-AIPAC and garnering a lot of social media attention because of it. AIPAC also threw a lot of money at stopping her, and instead handed the victory to Daniel Biss who was _also_ anti-AIPAC. Abughazaleh came in a respectable second. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2026, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/46 "2026-04-21T02:01:53Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > So what’s Abbott going to do about a district that’s R but not overwhelmingly so? The Dems have been outperforming their previous results in election after election by more than the R+7 percentage points that TX 23 has. So he may be worried about the potential flip of the seat. It’s quite possible he’ll leave the seat open until the Nov election. An analysis at DailyKos agrees that Abbott not scheduling an election in TX 23 is because he’s afraid the seat will flip. > **[A new, telling sign emerges about GOP’s midterm fears](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/4/20/800023991/elections/greg-abbott-tony-tony-gonzales-midterms-special-election/)** > > Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress nearly a week ago. Why hasn’t Republican Gov. Greg Abbott set a special election? ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2026, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/47 "2026-04-21T21:06:25Z")
Now we need to subtract one from the D column. A Democratic representative from Florida has resigned after accusations of financial crimes were made against her. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/21/florida-congresswoman-resigns-ethics-indictment/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/04/21/florida-congresswoman-resigns-ethics-indictment/) ---
**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2026, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/48 "2026-04-22T04:26:00Z")
Yesterday, Virginia voters approved a redistricting that will probably send four more Democrats to the House. > **[Virginia voters approve redistricting plan that could boost Democrats’ seats...](https://apnews.com/article/virginia-redistricting-election-congress-trump-78e0e68100119011b1b439634f6b6fa1)** > > Virginia voters have approved a congressional redistricting plan that could help Democrats win up to four additional U.S. House seats in this year’s midterm elections. And Virginia’s governor recently added the state to the [National Popular Vote Compact](https://www.nationalpopularvote.com%20/state/va), bringing the count to 222. Once enough states join to bring it to 270, the Electoral College will be effectively neutralized. (No, I’m not holding my breath.) ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2026, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/49 "2026-04-22T15:07:20Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Now we need to subtract one from the D column. OK, so here’s the latest counts, but there may be another resignation soon. Rep: 218 (includes one Independent who caucuses with the Rs.) Dem: 213 Vacant: 4 There’s still no date for TX 23 special election. An none yet for FL 20, of course. I expect deSantis will not set an early date for that one for the same reason Abbott hasn’t set one for TX 23. However, there’s another Congressman under investigation for various misdeeds: Cory MIlls (R-FL). If he resigns, will deSantis set an election for that seat while leaving FL 20 open? It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he does. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2026, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/50 "2026-04-22T17:24:38Z")
And another one gone, with David Scott from Georgia dying. [Rep. David Scott, a Georgia Democrat seeking his 13th term in Congress, dies at age 80](https://apnews.com/article/congressman-david-scott-dies-168e05e3188ce7750a4a831a27e38beb) ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2026, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/51 "2026-04-22T18:37:28Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > And another one gone, with David Scott from Georgia dying. That’s 4 vacancies within an 8 day period. Three resignations and a death. Very unusual. Here’s the current count: Rep: 218 (includes one Independent who caucuses with the Rs.) Dem: 212 Vacant: 5 Elections to fill vacancies: CA 01 – primary: Jun 2; general: Aug 4 [R favored] CA 14 – primary: Jun 16; general: Aug 18 [D favored] TX 23 – date not set. FL 20 – date not set. GA 13 – date not set. If there are special elections for FL 20 and GA 13, the Democrat will be favored in both. In fact, no Republican even ran in FL 20 in 2024. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2026, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/52 "2026-04-23T07:23:33Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > However, there’s another Congressman under investigation for various misdeeds: Cory MIlls (R-FL). Besides Mills, who says he isn’t going to resign despite a House Ethics Committee investigation, there’s also Tom Kean (R-NJ) who’s been absent from the House since early March due to “unspecified health issues”. These are two potential upcoming vacancies. At any rate, Kean being absent reduces the Republican margin. [https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/04/22/congress/kean-is-mia-00887934](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/04/22/congress/kean-is-mia-00887934) ETA: Oh, I should mention Nancy Mace here. She’s under investigation by the HEC too, although probably not for something serious enough for her to resign. However, she’s introduced a resolution to expell Mills. ---
**Author:** ![commasense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/commasense/32/3017_2.png) [@commasense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/commasense)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2026, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/53 "2026-04-23T13:02:45Z")
A Virginia judge has voided the redistricting referendum. An appeal is in the works. > **[Virginia court blocks voter-approved redistricting, appeal coming](https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/virginia-court-blocks-voter-approved-redistricting-appeal-coming/)** > > The appeal is expected to move swiftly — and could ultimately land before the Supreme Court of Virginia, which will have the final say on whether the voter-approved map can take effect. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2026, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/54 "2026-04-23T13:53:09Z")
> [@commasense](#): > > A Virginia judge has voided the redistricting referendum. An appeal is in the works. Important note: the lawsuit against the maps wasn’t brought in Richmond (the capital of Virginia), not in Henrico, Chesterfield, or Hanover Counties (the counties nearest the capital), nor in Fairfax (the most populous county, with more than a million people). It was brought in the tiny Tazewell County (population less than 40,000). I wonder why? Surely the fact that this tiny county is deeply Republican is just a coincidence. The decision will almost certainly be overturned. > **[Virginia court blocks voter-passed congressional maps that boost Democrats](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/22/virginia-court-congressional-maps-redrawn)** > > Move comes one day after voters approved the maps, leading state attorney general to vow office will appeal ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2026, 10:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/55 "2026-04-25T10:59:04Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > there’s also Tom Kean (R-NJ) who’s been absent from the House since early March Wow, an empty suit is even emptier. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/56 "2026-04-28T15:55:32Z")
He just addressed it publicly. He’s been out for a “medical issue” but did not disclose what that issue is. Used to be my representative. I liked his father. Junior is one of the spineless republicans who probably loathe Trump behind closed doors but they put on the red hat to pander to the base. He truly is an empty suit. > **[New Jersey Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. absent from Congress due to medical issue](https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/tom-kean-jr-medical-issue-absence-house-congress-nj/)** > > New Jersey Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has been absent from Congress for more than six weeks due to a medical issue, he said. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/57 "2026-04-28T16:02:34Z")
I think he was running in my district, or maybe running for state senate or something, at some point, so I met him on the train platform and we had a short discussion, or as much of a discussion you can have with someone who only knows soundbytes. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/58 "2026-04-28T16:12:47Z")
NJ’s 7th district is interesting and could be up for grabs. Despite being of of the wealthiest congressional districts (12th highest median income) it’s relatively purple. Leonard Lance was the representative for multiple terms and he’s a moderate republican. He’s certainly a republican but by MAGA standards he’s practically a liberal. Democratic candidate Tom Malinowski beat Lance in 2018 and then beat Kean Jr in 2020. Kean then won in 2022. So it’s certainly possible for the district to go blue. The current Democratic hopefuls don’t have a lot of name recognition so it’s hard to tell how things will go. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/59 "2026-04-28T17:13:11Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > He just addressed it publicly. He’s been out for a “medical issue” but did not disclose what that issue is. Which doesn’t tell us anything new. As I posted above, unofficial reports were his absence was due to an “unspecified health issue”. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2026, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486/60 "2026-04-28T20:39:10Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > > [@Loach](#): > > > > He just addressed it publicly. He’s been out for a “medical issue” but did not disclose what that issue is. > > Which doesn’t tell us anything new. As I posted above, unofficial reports were his absence was due to an “unspecified health issue”. But now there’s a shiny new “I’ll be back.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-math-majorities-and-vacancies/1026486.md?page=4)