# Congressional Research Service report: Iraq government near collapse **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 6, 2007, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276 "2007-09-06T19:06:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2007, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/1 "2007-09-06T19:06:08Z")
From the [_Daily News:_](http://www.nydailynews.com/news/wn_report/2007/09/06/2007-09-06_iraq_government_near_collapse_secret_rep.html?print=1) > [@](#): > > The boycott of the government by certain Shiite and Kurdish political blocs has left Iraq’s leadership hanging by a thread, according to a report by the Congressional Research Service. > > The report by CRS, Congress’ research and analysis arm, was completed Aug. 15 for the House and Senate. > > “My assessment is that because of the number and breadth of parties boycotting the cabinet, the Iraqi government is in essential collapse,” Kenneth Katzman, the author of the report, said. “That argues against any real prospects for political reconciliation.” > > Without a political infrastructure in Iraq, any military progress would be short-lived, he added. Now, in a parliamentary system, they use the word “government” to mean what we in the U.S. would call the “administration,” and the word “state” to mean what we would call the “government.” If the “government” of PM Gordon Brown collapses, that’s not the end of the world; it just means new elections, and all existing executive agencies continue to operate in the meantime. But, in its present form and unstable condition, can the new Iraqi **state** survive if the current government collapses? Would circumstances on the ground even allow for the possibility of new elections? ---
**Author:** ![Triskadecamus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b19c9b/32.png) [@Triskadecamus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Triskadecamus)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2007, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/2 "2007-09-06T19:16:18Z")
Well, if a Coalition of Muslim States defeated your army, and installed a government to replace your government, how long do you suppose it would last after their army left? Tris ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2007, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/3 "2007-09-06T19:19:46Z")
[QUOTE=Triskadecamus] Well, if a Coalition of Muslim States defeated your army, and installed a government to replace your government, how long do you suppose it would last after their army left? Tris [/QUOTE] But our Army **hasn’t** left! ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [September 6, 2007, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/4 "2007-09-06T19:42:51Z")
It’s basically a prop held in place by American forces, and not a real “state”/government/whatever at all. It’ll last as long as we are there, and vanish when we leave. Since it’s meaningless and powerless anyway, it’s internal squabbles won’t make it any weaker. It’s already as weak as it can get. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2007, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/5 "2007-09-08T15:03:22Z")
[General Petraeus](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/07/AR2007090701435.html?hpid=topnews) is none too optimistic about the political state of Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2007, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/6 "2007-09-08T17:16:35Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] [General Petraeus](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/07/AR2007090701435.html?hpid=topnews) is none too optimistic about the political state of Iraq. [/QUOTE] Really? What does he recommend that we do? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2007, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/7 "2007-09-08T18:13:36Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Really? What does he recommend that we do? [/QUOTE] Not having bothered to click on the link, I’m going to play The Amazing Kreskin here for shits and giggles. Bet he wants one or two more Friedman units. * * * PS- How’d I do? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2007, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/8 "2007-09-08T21:25:23Z")
If it were to collapse, how would we know? They live entirely within the Green Zone, they could be conducting a year-long pinochle tourney, for all we can tell. What effective application of power have they made? ---
**Author:** ![Key\_Lime\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/48db29/32.png) [@Key\_Lime\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Key_Lime_Guy)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2007, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/9 "2007-09-08T21:36:10Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] If it were to collapse, how would we know? [/QUOTE] There’d be an AP story on page A16 of Saturday’s paper. ---
**Author:** ![Zoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a4c791/32.png) [@Zoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoe)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2007, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/10 "2007-09-08T23:39:20Z")
> [@](#): > > **Brain Glutton** : Would circumstances on the ground even allow for the possibility of new elections? Even if they were safe, I don’t know if the Iraqis in the States would bother to show up again at the five voting stations. Somehow they may have lost some of their optimism. Oh. You mean in Iraq… ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2007, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/11 "2007-09-09T00:05:06Z")
Why did the US install a parliamentary system in Iraq anyway? No confidence in the presidential system? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2007, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/12 "2007-09-09T00:13:19Z")
[QUOTE=Sevastopol] Why did the US install a parliamentary system in Iraq anyway? No confidence in the presidential system? [/QUOTE] Fear, perhaps, that too strong a president, with a personal electoral mandate independent of Parliament, might turn into another Hussein? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2007, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/13 "2007-09-09T00:24:12Z")
[QUOTE=Sevastopol] Why did the US install a parliamentary system in Iraq anyway? No confidence in the presidential system? [/QUOTE] Correct me if I’m wrong (as if I had to offer that, ehe?) but I thought the Iraqi’s picked the type of government they wanted during the first election cycle. Didn’t they write their own constitution with the first temporary committees. No? -XT ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2007, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/14 "2007-09-09T00:27:37Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] Not having bothered to click on the link, I’m going to play The Amazing Kreskin here for shits and giggles. Bet he wants one or two more Friedman units. * * * PS- How’d I do? [/QUOTE] Have a cigar. > [@](#): > > Petraeus has privately signaled that he can accept token reductions in U.S. troop strength, and U.S. military officials in Iraq have begun to identify areas where they can selectively draw down as many as 5,000 troops by spring, administration officials said. But Petraeus, who will be joined in testifying next week by Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, wants to reassess conditions in Iraq in March before making further reductions, administration officials said. > > “I think Dave will highlight in his testimony that he can see a place in the future where he can begin to shift his weight from doing what he is doing now to a new phase of operations, and that new phase of operations will require fewer troops,” one senior administration official said. But he added: “This is a delicate balance to be struck. If you do it too quickly, you endanger the gains you have made.” ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2007, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/15 "2007-09-09T00:32:37Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Correct me if I’m wrong (as if I had to offer that, ehe?) but I thought the Iraqi’s picked the type of government they wanted during the first election cycle. Didn’t they write their own constitution with the first temporary committees. No? -XT [/QUOTE] The Germans wrote their own new constitution after WWII, but they were listening **very carefully** to the Americans, including some generals who hailed from the South and were doctrinally committed to “states’ rights” – which is one reason why modern Germany has a federal rather than a unitary system of government. You can read the story in [_The Frozen Republic,_](http://www.amazon.com/Frozen-Republic-Constitution-Paralyzing-Democracy/dp/0156004941/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/105-7378375-4489240?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1189297863&sr=8-1) by Daniel Lazare. If Japan does not have a federal system, it is probably because Douglas McArthur had no strong feelings on the matter. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2007, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/16 "2007-09-09T00:38:15Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] The Germans wrote their own new constitution after WWII, but they were listening very carefully to the Americans, including some generals who hailed from the South and were doctrinally committed to “states’ rights” – which is one reason why modern Germany has a federal rather than a unitary system of government. You can read the story in The Frozen Republic, by Daniel Lazare. If Japan does not have a federal system, it is probably because Douglas McArthur had no strong feelings on the matter. [/QUOTE] Interesting. Are you saying that the Iraqi situation parallels that of Germany and Japan post WWII? Do you have any evidence of this? Wiki seems to contradict your conclusions (but then, its not exactly a reliable source either). Out of curiosity, what was your link to Amazon supposed to prove there? I’m probably not going to be able to order the book, have it delivered AND read it tonight after all. -XT ed Here is the [Wiki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Iraq_from_2006) link if you want to read through it…its kind of a hijack so I’ll just post the link. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2007, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/17 "2007-09-09T01:04:50Z")
[QUOTE=xtisme] Interesting. Are you saying that the Iraqi situation parallels that of Germany and Japan post WWII? [/quote] Only in the sense that the U.S. is the principal occupying power in charge of nation-building. [QUOTE=xtisme] Out of curiosity, what was your link to Amazon supposed to prove there? [/quote] Only that the U.S. occupying authorities heavily influenced the form of the new German government (and, therefore, it is not unreasonable to infer that American occupying authorities had some influence on the form of the new Iraqi government), which I happen to know about just because I happened to read that book. (What the **author** was trying to prove is that both American and German constitutional arrangements were put in place by elites to thwart a mass democracy – which is probably true; but he is also a democratic socialist who seems to assume that democratic socialism is what the American people would choose if our Constitution did not put that choice out of their reach. You can read an insightful critique of that assumption [here.](http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/1999/why_there_will_be_no_revolution_in_the_us)) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2007, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/18 "2007-09-09T02:48:06Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] You can read an insightful critique of that assumption [here.](http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/1999/why_there_will_be_no_revolution_in_the_us)) [/QUOTE] Tsk. On that link, the article appears to be truncated, for some reason. But you can read some of the omitted portions [here.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=332312) (You can read the whole thing [here,](http://www.newleftreview.org/?view=1980) as well as Lazare’s article in reply, but only if you subscribe to the _New Left Review.)_ ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2007, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/19 "2007-09-09T04:30:37Z")
As to troop withdrawal, my understanding from various sources is that there will be a drawdown of troops come spring, If things are going as swimmingly as they are now. There will also be a troop drawdown if things are a napalm shitstorm. There will be a troop drawdown if Al Queda allies with the Klingons. They are offering to do what they have no choice but do. If thats not lying, its lying’s ugly sister. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2007, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/congressional-research-service-report-iraq-government-near-collapse/418276/20 "2007-09-11T01:24:40Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] As to troop withdrawal, my understanding from various sources is that there will be a drawdown of troops come spring, If things are going as swimmingly as they are now. There will also be a troop drawdown if things are a napalm shitstorm. There will be a troop drawdown if Al Queda allies with the Klingons. They are offering to do what they have no choice but do. If thats not lying, its lying’s ugly sister. [/QUOTE] I thought it was called, “making a virtue of necessity.”