Consequences of Gender Ratio in China and India

[Brayne_Ded]

@Broomstick

^ This as well.

Also, allowing polyandry might help as well, but again I have no idea of the actual feasibility of that. There are some cultures that have polyandry, but they’re rare.

Tibet was one.

[DSeid]

It has apparently contributed to an increase in crime, violent and property crime in particular. The study used variations in province data to make the case. Interesting also is that the poorer provinces had smaller skews … reflecting likely males differentially migrating for jobs. But as to the impact on crime …

… we estimate an elasticity of crime with respect to the
16–25 sex ratio of 3.4, implying that higher sex ratios may
account for up to one-seventh of the overall rise in violent
and property crime during our study period (1988–2004). As
a point of reference, the next two decades will likely see
another 10% increase in the sex ratio of young adults. …

More similar and more recent data this seeing an impact on financial crime in particular.

The study collects data from male inmates of a Chinese prison and similar non-inmates, and shows that the skewed sex ratio accounts for a 34% increase in China’s rate of incarceration.

This increase in crime is mainly due to the financial pressures that men face in attracting a wife. Men are finding it difficult, and in many cases impossible, to find a wife and brides are becoming increasingly expensive. It is not unusual for families to expect the bridegroom to supply an apartment and a substantial cash gift, often amounting to more than ten thousand pounds.

This turns some unmarried men to financially rewarding crimes. A high ratio of men to women in a man’s marriage market (defined in relation to his age and geographical origin) is shown to be associated with higher rates of financial crimes, not physically violent crimes.

A further (smaller) portion of the increase in crime is due to an increased willingness to take risks and increased neuroticism among men who grew up in heavily male environments. Behaviour in experimental games and responses to survey questions show that men who grew up surrounded by more boys than girls are more impatient, risk-loving and neurotic.

Risk-taking and neuroticism are strongly associated with the probability of engaging in criminal activity and being incarcerated. A ten percentage point increase in the sex ratio in the cohort in which a man grew up (for example, from the naturally occurring sex ratio of 1.07 to 1.17) is associated with a 5% increase in the probability of being incarcerated via behavioural channels.

Here’s the big concern though … for much of this time there have been jobs to be had, even if domestic migration was required to find them. China’s economy is longer growing at the same clip …

That prospect is … concerning.

[DSeid]

@Brayne_Ded

As for redressing the sex ratio, both Finland and Russia had a big imbalance after WW2. Finland seems to be back to normal now, AFAIK, but Russia has not. Are they putting something in the vodka?

Serious answer … An aging population with more men dying young, and yeah related to the vodka. More men drink more of it and die young.

The population in Russia and the former USSR as a whole is older than that of the world. Most of these nations, including the most populous, also have low fertility rates compared with the global average. This skews the population’s gender ratio because older people are more likely to be female, while more younger people are male.

Younger men in the former Soviet Union also have an unusually high mortality rate, which has widened the population’s gender imbalance. One way to see this is to look at the life expectancy of men and women and the differences between those numbers.

Russian women born from 2010 to 2015 are expected to live to age 75.6, while Russian men are expected to live to age 64.2, a gap of 11.4 years. Other former USSR countries, such as Belarus, Ukraine and Latvia, have similarly high gaps, with many men in this area losing their lives to alcohol-related incidents, suicides and diseases, among other causes (as noted by demographer Murray Feshbach). The only nation with a higher life-expectancy gap between genders is war-torn Syria.

Alcoholism has long been a problem in the former USSR, especially for young men. A 2014 study in The Lancet medical journal found evidence that excess vodka use is a top killer in Russia, responsible for a disproportionate amount of deaths among Russian men. And a 2013 Pew Research Center survey found a stark gender divide on attitudes toward drinking in Russian society: 52% of women believe that drinking alcohol is morally unacceptable, compared with just 36% of men who say the same.

So China could promote heavy male drinking as a solution?

[Riemann]

In the news today:

Newborn girl found alive in shallow grave in India

Newborn girl found alive in shallow grave in India

[pool]

@DSeid

Serious answer … An aging population with more men dying young, and yeah related to the vodka. More men drink more of it and die young

Yes Russia seems like a very bleak place indeed, I’m sure there are a lot of so called deaths of despair.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=CBbLa_1570129442

[Hari_Seldon]

@Riemann

But you can’t selectively provide children of one sex except by selective abortion of the other sex after the sex of the fetus is known, or by post-natal selective murder. Since I doubt ultrasound was available for a lot of pregnancies in rural areas until recently, the statistics imply that millions of female babies were probably murdered.

This is absolutely correct. Some people have conjectured that if a family was allowed to have children until they had one son, then you would change the sex ratio to having more females, but that’s false too. Every pregnancy is approximately 50-50. Actually a few more males are born, but that only compensates for higher male mortality. The only ways to create a different ratio are selective abortion and infanticide. Oh, I suppose offering the females for foreign might make a slight difference, but I hardly think there has been enough to change the ratio.

[XT]

@Hari_Seldon

This is absolutely correct. Some people have conjectured that if a family was allowed to have children until they had one son, then you would change the sex ratio to having more females, but that’s false too. Every pregnancy is approximately 50-50. Actually a few more males are born, but that only compensates for higher male mortality. The only ways to create a different ratio are selective abortion and infanticide. Oh, I suppose offering the females for foreign might make a slight difference, but I hardly think there has been enough to change the ratio.

Yep. It’s bad enough to contemplate force abortions (choice is one thing, but to force a woman to have an abortion against her will is pretty bad), but the basic imbalance pretty much necessitates a lot of post delivery babies being euthanized, which is even worse. Then there is the problem with ghost children, which could mean you had a second child after the first one died and you didn’t have the right paperwork or correct bribe for the local official.

It’s just one of myriad things that the CCP has done that apparently skated under the radar of most people. It often amazes and saddens me to see some of the discussions on this board that focus so much on the US and ignore things happening in China. I’m actually hopeful that with this NBA thing happening that some people who have been asleep are finally waking up to at least some of what’s been going on. I’m so glad John Oliver did that episode, as I’ve heard more discussion about this since then than the usual blank looks or shrugs.