A while ago I posted a link which I am too lazy to go searching for. But the upshot: it was an article about a year before the Clinton/Bush election, to the effect that the hick Governor had no chance against the War Hero Prez, the Dems were in disarray after a brutal internecine primary campaign, yadda blah yadda blah.
A few months ago, Dean was the favorite candidate of the RNC. But that has changed, and changed drasticly.
First, the “grass roots” effect. The Dean campaign has energized a portion of the Apathy Party, long the single most dominant force in our politics. Just like mcGovern, young college types are enthused. But with McGovern, it was easy for the Forces of Darkness to portray them as wildly radical hippy types, hitting America right square in the prejudices. Not this time.
As well, the fundraising. A massive fundraising from small individual donor is a terrifying spectacle for Mr. Rove. You can bet your bippy that everybody who sent Dean $20 is going to vote for him, is going to get off his butt and go to the polls, and take two or three friends with them. And the “get off yer butt” factor is crucial, IMO (I won’t add “humble”, you guys know me better than that…)
The Troglodyte Right: These are the people that make the honest conservatives cringe with dismay, the Apocalyptic nutbars whose theology is mixture of Cotton Mather and Stephen King. The FoD have had them in thier pockets for years, and they have a very strong “off yer butt” factor: they are motivated, even fanatical.
But the FoD has been unable to deliver. They want and demand a return to the Golden Age of OzzienHarriet, picket fences, and freshly scrubbed children without any illicit thoughts. But no political party can turn back the clock, social change has happened. The FoD has been keeping them in line with promises, soon, they say, soon. But it never happens. It is hard to claim that the dastardly liberals are thwarting God’s Will when you have all the reins of power and still can’t deliver.
The Patriots: A major bastion of FoD strength, but eroding. These are people who are instinctively uncomfortable with criticizing a “wartime President”. The FoD have squeezed every last drop out of this, wrapping themselves in Old Glory at every opportunity, hinting darkly at the disloyalty of, well, me. They are, by and large, working class folks. It is thier children in harms way, thier spouses, thier friends, who aren’t coming home bathed in glory as promised. They aren’t even coming home, in far too many cases. As of now, I think they’re still largely on board, they are loathe to voice an opinion that could be unconsidered as not “supporting our troops”.
But doubt is creeping in. At the diner, at the beauty shop, at the workplace, there is somebody who’s respectability is impeccable, who has a child or a spouse or a friend serving, and who is voicing his doubt. This makes such thoughts respectable, you can’t trump thier bona fides with slurs to thier patriotism, they are most definitely “supporting our troops”, but they don’t support GeeDubya with the same enthusiasm as they did. Erosion.
This is precisely why GeeDub is so desperate to turn over Iraq to anybody, right now, at once. He cravenly needs those soldiers returning in time for the Support Our President and Re-Elect Our Troops Rally, so that he can bask in thier glory.
Is Dean electable? Yes, but barely. I would still prefer a more attractive candidate, perhaps Clark. And then, of course, there is the money. Towers of money, mountains of money, enough to buy hours and hours of insinuations and innuendos.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if all that money was for naught?
