I did answer those questions. I’m a bit tired of expressing an opinion which answers your questions in the opinion itself and having you complain that I didn’t answer your question, then answer it again to have you complain that I never answer questions.
But, I’ll give it a shot.
Since the founding, nobody has instituted a population-wide lockdown of healthy people because of the spread of a disease. Not for smallpox, measles, typhoid, for anything. So, no, these decisions were not made by any people/groups/institutions since the founding and I have said so at least two times in this thread. Is that difficult for you to read?
I believe that the government does not have the power to suspend constitutional rights based upon a spread of a virus that does not effect the health of the vast majority of people. No I do not. I don’t believe that should even be up for a vote. Quarantine sick people, yes. Healthy people, no. Does that answer suffice for you or should I repeat it?
You need to make up your mind on whether we should vote or shouldn’t vote instead of speaking out of both sides of your mouth.
By definition, quarantine includes all people who have been exposed and may carry contagion. It is clear that the majority of people who are infected are asymptomatic or have minimal symptoms and present no visible signs. At this point, we can’t assume that anybody is “healthy”, i.e. uninfected.
Have you seen the projections that 50-75% of Americans will get the disease in an uncontrolled scenario?
I’m curious as to whether you don’t believe that, or if you think that once a substantial majority of Americans already have it, then the government can take action.
I’m betting he’ll say that most of those people will have mild cases or no symptoms. But “mild” here can and often does mean plenty of missed work. I only know one person with COVID-19: a healthy, fit 28-year-old who very rarely takes a sick day. He’s been sick for over a week. Still, he’ll say that’s no worse than a bad flu season.
The economics he’s not considering are:
•The “only” 20% of Americans who will get severe cases amounts to over 60,000,000 people.
• Some will be children because some kids have asthma (8%) or other risk factors, but they won’t have as big an impact, though parents will have to take time off. And some are the elderly who aren’t working.
• But 6,600,000 people over age 65 are in the workforce. They’ll be absent. And they won’t be buying much.
• Business owners over 65 will die, and many of their businesses will close.
• Diabetes, high BP, asthma, cancer, lupus, COPD–there are a host of conditions that make people of any age more likely to get a severe (or fatal) case of COVID-19, and one-third of Americans have them.
Health insurance rates will skyrocket for everyone. Medicare and Medicaid will blow well past their budgets.
I’d LOVE the restrictions to be lifted, but I wouldn’t love losing people dear to me. Maybe Ultravires doesn’t have anyone dear to him who’s older or who has an underlying health condition. Or maybe it’s just easier for some people to shrug off consequences when it’s in the abstract.
A “population wide lockdown”? Do you mean like what cities/counties/states have done (quarantining people), but for the entire nation? Something like this?
Or do you mean the CDC and the federal government simply recommending social distancing, without any real civil or criminal penalties? I mean, I think you’re right that we’ve never had a “population wide lockdown” in the US, but I also don’t think we’re going to see one now unless things go really south. What is much more likely, and is in fact occurring, is that cities and counties institute quarantines for local populations. And that’ something that has definitely occurred in the US before. From the CDC: “Large-scale isolation and quarantine was last enforced during the influenza (“Spanish Flu”) pandemic in 1918–1919.” [Cite](Large-scale isolation and quarantine was last enforced during the influenza (“Spanish Flu”) pandemic in 1918–1919).
It would be easier for me to understand what you’re asserting if you actually cited to something.
By government, do you mean the only the feds or local governments too? Do you doubt the legality of, let’s pick an example at random, a state law requiring people (even not sick people) to get vaccinated for smallpox with a potential fine for violation? Do you doubt the legality of a mandatory quarantine for 14 days for all people, not just ones who are clearly infected, but anyone who travelled from a potential hotspot?
Do you doubt the legality of a city to quarantine a person who came into contact with someone with a disease, but claimed to not be sick? Do you think a court would rule that: “It is not necessary that one be actually sick, as that term is usually applied, in order that the health authorities have the right to restrain his liberties by quarantine regulations. Quarantine is not a cure — it is a preventive.” Did your “research” find any of those?
The idea that letting it play out would save the economy is not well supported. All ideas don’t get equal say. They get moderated on their chance of actually being true.
The likely answer is the letting it play out may do more economic damage, not less. I think it is reasonable that a big part of what drives the current decisions is actually protecting the individual countries and their economies.
The economy of anywhere is built on trust. If people are dying by the hundreds of thousands, and there is no apparent government action that is doing any good, the economy is going to be in far worse shape than now. Right now we restrict by common assent. The alternative is a society riven by blind fear and restricting itself out of that. One is controlled, that other, who knows how it plays out?
Apparently the president thinks he has the authority to quarantine, as he says he’s considering quarantining hot spots in New York “probably New Jersey” and “certain parts of Connecticut.” He says he’ll decide sometime today.
Trump says such a quarantine would only be for two weeks or so.
I’m unclear as to what this would entail and how it would be enforced. I’m assuming roads to and from these areas would be blocked, but by whom? The military? Would the Coast Guard stop water craft? Would the FFA shut down airports?
It doesn’t seem likely the federal government has the constitutional authority to do this, but if Trump does it anyway, would states likely take this to the Supreme Court?
The Commerce Clause (US Constitution Article I, Section 8, Clause 3) gives the Congress the power to regulate ‘trade’ between the states; this has been broadly interpreted to include the illegal drug trade under the premise that even if the drug transactions themselves don’t cross state lines the money involved will. Such a premise could, I suppose, be applied to individuals taking their ‘trade’ from one state to another but that would be an enormous reach that I don’t think federal courts would uphold long before it gets to the SCOTUS level.
Trump, of course, has no power to prevent anyone from crossing state lines, and how he would instruct the Justice and Commerce Departments to enforce any attempt at an executive order is…well, unclear at best. The only way he could actually make this happen is to suspend the Posse Comitatus Act and declare martial law. Given that he would be doing this for the express purpose of preventing New Yorkers from travelling to Florida, rather than a general order of martial law for a specific public safety or national security purpose, I can’t see this as going well for him.