# CONTEST: Electoral Results.  With prizes!

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [November 1, 2016, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403 "2016-11-01T21:33:54Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/41 "2016-11-03T02:12:45Z")

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Can’t you just FEEL the excitement?

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**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/42 "2016-11-03T02:15:38Z")

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> [@El\_Kabong](#):
>
> Hillary’s EV count: 288  
> Donald’s EV Count: 250  
> Senate: 51 D, 49 R  
> 3rd party: 6.2%

Amended to add McMullin in Utah: 28%.

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**Author:** ![BorgHunter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@BorgHunter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BorgHunter)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/43 "2016-11-03T02:17:35Z")

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> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#):
>
> Can’t you just FEEL the excitement?

Well, I’m hoping 5.1% of voters feel the Johnson, anyway.

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/44 "2016-11-03T11:49:07Z")

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> [@BobLibDem](#):
>
> Electoral: Hillary 323 Trump 215  
> Senate: 51D 49R  
> Third Party: 3.7%

Thanks to JC, I’ll add my tiebreaker: Eggs McMuffin 25% in UT.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/45 "2016-11-03T13:23:29Z")

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> [@BobLibDem](#):
>
> Electoral: Hillary 323 Trump 215  
> Senate: 51D 49R  
> Third Party: 3.7%

Electoral: Clinton 323; Trump 215  
Senate: 51D 49R  
3rd Party: 5.1%  
McMullin Utah: 30%

If Clinton does better and I lose I will not be upset!

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**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/46 "2016-11-03T13:36:24Z")

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If Clinton wins and I finish in last place I will not care. My son is a rabid Michigan fan while I bleed Spartan green. We both agree that we would rather see U-M and MSU finish a combined 1-23 and have Hillary win than have them finish 23-1 and meet in the national title game and have Trump win.

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**Author:** ![Lancia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lancia/32/17174_2.png) [@Lancia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lancia)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/47 "2016-11-03T14:11:03Z")

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So a friend of mine sent me this:

He’s a total, Alex Jones-type CT nut, but for the other tribe. He believes the election is rigged to favor Clinton and she stole it from Bernie and that Trump and Clinton are really in cahoots and are running the show behind the scenes. He believes the election has already been decided, down to the exact number of votes cast, and as “proof” sent me a screenshot from a TV station purporting to show the 2016 election results. I unabashedly laughed in his face, but for this contest I’ll use the figures he believes have already been agreed upon.

Clinton: 343 EV  
Trump: 195 EV  
Third party (Johnson / Stein / others) 18% of the total national vote  
Senate: 51 / 49 in Dem favor.  
McMullin in Utah: 19.2%

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**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/48 "2016-11-03T15:07:13Z")

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> [@Lancia](#):
>
> So a friend of mine sent me this:  
> Clinton: 343 EV  
> Trump: 195 EV  
> Third party (Johnson / Stein / others) 18% of the total national vote  
> Senate: 51 / 49 in Dem favor.  
> McMullin in Utah: 19.2%

I’m now hoping you win. 🙂

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**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/49 "2016-11-03T15:17:40Z")

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Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count 322  
Trump’s Electoral Vote Count 215  
Senate Split 51 Democratic, 49 Republican  
Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent 9.3%

Evan McMullin’s Vote Percentage in Utah 27.5%

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/50 "2016-11-03T15:28:04Z")

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Alright, let’s do this.

Clinton: 323  
Trump: 209  
(The McMuffin: 6. What the hell.)  
Senate: 50-50  
Votes To Other Parties: 7.9%  
El McMuffmeister In Utah: 36.1%

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/51 "2016-11-03T15:29:20Z")

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And seriously, if Evan McMullin’s friends don’t call him “Eggs,” dudes need to step up their game.

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/52 "2016-11-04T00:40:33Z")

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We now have 24 players with less than four days to get entries in!

Who else is in?

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**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/53 "2016-11-04T06:07:31Z")

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Don’t know why my link screwed up. Sharing links to custom Huffpo Pollster maps seems to be messed up. [Here’s a screenshot instead](http://i.imgur.com/Hz99r4d.png).

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**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2016, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/54 "2016-11-04T06:15:32Z")

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Oh, and 21.0% McMullin in Utah, just by eyeballing the tend on the [chart](http://i.imgur.com/I1IUYLW.png)

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**Author:** ![Psychopants](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Psychopants](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Psychopants)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2016, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/55 "2016-11-05T19:25:39Z")

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Here’s mine:

Hillary: 342  
Trump: 196  
Senate: D/I 51/ R 49  
3rd Party: 7.2%  
McMullin: 36%

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**Author:** ![pohjonen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pohjonen/32/423_2.png) [@pohjonen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pohjonen)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2016, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/56 "2016-11-05T19:48:56Z")

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Hillary: 274  
Trump: 264  
Senate: D/I 50/ R 50  
3rd Party: 4.8  
McMullin: 25%

Allowing for the faithless elector from Washington, make Hillary 273 instead.

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**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2016, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/57 "2016-11-05T20:03:09Z")

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> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#):
>
> **First one to predict these four things:**
> 
> Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count  
> Trump’s Electoral Vote Count  
> Senate Split  
> Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent

My prediction:

Clinton EV 318  
Trump EV 220  
Senate 50:50  
Third party votes 3.6%

ETA: McMullin in Utah tiebreaker: 24%

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**Author:** ![snoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@snoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snoe)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/58 "2016-11-06T00:59:24Z")

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Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count: 322  
Trump’s Electoral Vote Count: 216  
Senate Split: 50-50  
Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent: 5.5%  
McMuffin Factor: 25%

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**Author:** ![Enlightening\_Meditation](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ecc23a/32.png) [@Enlightening\_Meditation](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enlightening_Meditation)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/59 "2016-11-06T04:28:38Z")

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Trump electoral college votes: **301** (red/lean red states + toss up states + Michigan + Pennsylvania, if my math is correct)  
Clinton electoral college votes: **237**  
Senate: **51** Republican / **49** Democratic  
Combined 3rd party popular vote: **4.4%**  
McMullin Utah vote: **23.8%**

Cool game. I hope to be way wrong as I dislike Clinton less than Trump. My hunch is that the pissed off rust belt vote is not well measured by polls having spent much time in MI, OH, & PA.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2016, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/60 "2016-11-06T12:54:35Z")

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With a day or so to vote, we’re at 30 predictors!

Who will win? Let’s find out!

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