# CONTEST: Electoral Results.  With prizes!

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [November 1, 2016, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403 "2016-11-01T21:33:54Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 5

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**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/81 "2016-11-07T08:49:21Z")

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Clinton: 292 (293 minus one faithless elector)  
Trump: 245  
Senate: 51R / 49D  
3rd Party: 6.6%

McMullin: 26%

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**Author:** ![irritant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/dfb087/32.png) [@irritant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/irritant)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 9:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/82 "2016-11-07T09:35:10Z")

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HRC: 324  
iDJiT: 214  
Senate: 52D-48R  
3rd Party: 4%  
McMullin Effect: 28%

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**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 9:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/83 "2016-11-07T09:51:07Z")

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Hillary: 275  
Trump: 263  
Senate: 52 R / 48 D  
3rd-party: 3.4%

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**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/84 "2016-11-07T13:48:13Z")

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> [@Eddie The Horrible](#):
>
> ☹ was hoping you would’ve mentioned Brett Cecil percent.

Brett Cecil plays in Canada, though. (Or has to this point)

27 actually is the percent vote Alan Keyes got in his famed Senate race with Barack Obama in 2004, and so has to be considered the absolute floor number a major party candidate in a major race can get. There was literally no reason whatsoever for anyone to vote for Keyes, none at all:

1. Keyes wasn’t even from Illinois,
2. Keyes was parachuted into the race when Jack Ryan (not the Tom Clancy character) had to quit, so he had no political base, no platform, and no one knew him.
3. Obama was not facing any sort of personal or professional scandal,
4. Keyes is also black, so you can’t say it was racism against Obama, and
5. Keyes was, and is, nuttier than elephant poop.

Yet 27% of people in Illinois went into the polling booths and voted for an out-of-state lunatic they knew nothing about. That’s the Keyes Number. You can’t do worse than the Keyes Number.

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**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/85 "2016-11-07T17:57:20Z")

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Clinton 319  
Trump 219  
Senate 50/50  
Third Party 6.5%  
McMullin 26%

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Rigamarole](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/77aa72/32.png) [@Rigamarole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rigamarole)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/86 "2016-11-07T18:38:25Z")

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Oh, I don’t know who this McMullin character is but… 30%?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/87 "2016-11-07T18:50:56Z")

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> [@Rigamarole](#):
>
> Oh, I don’t know who this McMullin character is but… 30%?

Just for Utah. He’s a Mormon independent candidate from Utah with heavy ties to the community there.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/88 "2016-11-07T18:56:30Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> Just for Utah. He’s a Mormon independent candidate from Utah with heavy ties to the community there.

Just to clarify - while he’s running as an independent, he’s historically a republican, and now he’s a never-Trumper. Here’s his [Wikipedia entry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evan_McMullin).

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/89 "2016-11-07T19:00:59Z")

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323 - Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count  
215 - Trump’s Electoral Vote Count  
53D, 47R - Senate Split  
3.8% - Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/90 "2016-11-07T19:12:44Z")

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323 - Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count  
215 - Trump’s Electoral Vote Count  
50D\*, 50R - Senate Split (I - incl. I who caucus with D)  
6.7% - Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent

28% - McMullin

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/91 "2016-11-07T20:28:27Z")

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**HRC gets 263** and goes down in history as the woman that lost to Trump.  
**DJT gets 275** and shocks Washington, Wall Street, Europe, and liberals everywhere.  
Senate stays Republican by a razor-thin margin: **51R** - **49D** +I.  
3rd-part candidates win a combined 6.3%.  
McMullin gets 26% (and a second-place finish there).

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/92 "2016-11-07T20:52:01Z")

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325 - Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count  
213 - Trump’s Electoral Vote Count  
51D, 49R - Senate Split ( incl. I who caucus with D, to borrow from Septimus’s framing)  
6.0% - Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent

24% - McMullin

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/93 "2016-11-07T20:54:17Z")

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Apologies if I missed an official answer on this already - do we need to account for faithless electors?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/94 "2016-11-07T21:15:02Z")

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Clinton: 322 (not accounting for faithless electors)  
Trump: 216  
Senate: 49R / 51D  
3rd Party: 5.2%

McMullin: 30%

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/95 "2016-11-07T21:41:27Z")

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> [@Sunny\_Daze](#):
>
> Apologies if I missed an official answer on this already - do we need to account for faithless electors?

No, because they won’t be known until well after tomorrow night.

And we now have 46 predictors! Who wins, who loses? We’ll find out tomorrow night!

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/96 "2016-11-07T22:46:36Z")

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8.7% - McMullicuddy in Utah

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/97 "2016-11-07T23:54:40Z")

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> [@Sunny\_Daze](#):
>
> Apologies if I missed an official answer on this already - do we need to account for faithless electors?

I also forgot something: I assume that independent Senators are counted with the party they caucus with. If not then change my answer to 48D-50R-2I since I counted King and Sanders as D’s 🙂 And I assume that there are no other viable independent candidates for the Senate who would be new to the Senate chamber, otherwise it might get dicey because you can’t always be sure where the candidate would caucus, if at all :eek:

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/98 "2016-11-08T00:01:40Z")

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Clinton – 316  
Trump – 222  
Senate split: 51 D, 49 R  
Third party: 5.9%  
McMullin: 27%

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/99 "2016-11-08T00:03:12Z")

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> [@Tzigone](#):
>
> Just to clarify - while he’s running as an independent, he’s historically a republican, and now he’s a never-Trumper. Here’s his [Wikipedia entry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evan_McMullin).

People here suspect he’s more interested in setting himself up for a Senate run after Hatch retires.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/100 "2016-11-08T00:57:53Z")

</div>

Here’s my predictions.

1. Clinton’s electoral vote total. 323
2. Trump’s electoral vote total. 215
3. Senate split. 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 2 Independents that causes with the Democrats.
4. 3rd party vote percentage. 8.1%  
Tie breaker  
Evan McMullin’s Utah vote percentage. 30.6%

Good luck everybody!

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