# CONTEST: Electoral Results.  With prizes!

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [November 1, 2016, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403 "2016-11-01T21:33:54Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 6

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/101 "2016-11-08T01:53:20Z")

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Very sporting of you, Flik. Well done.

Midnight eastern time is when the prediction market closes. Good luck to all!

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**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/102 "2016-11-08T01:56:55Z")

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Getting in under the wire, I notice I’m similar to a few others:

Clinton : 323  
Trump : 215  
Senate : 51R / 49D  
3rd party: 6.9%

Mulldog: 24.2%

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**Author:** ![Implicit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Implicit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Implicit)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/103 "2016-11-08T02:22:53Z")

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Clinton 312  
Trump 226  
Senate 50/50  
3rd party 5.7  
McMuffin 27

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**Author:** ![emcee2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7bcc69/32.png) [@emcee2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emcee2k)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/104 "2016-11-08T02:36:08Z")

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Clinton: 294  
Trump: 244  
Senate: 49R / 51D  
Third party: 5.6%  
McMullen in Utah: 19.8%

Specifically, for the electoral college, I’m going with this: [270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](http://www.270towin.com/maps/EXxr9)

Which isn’t the outcome I consider most likely, just the most plausible result that would make me seem like prediction genius if I’m right.

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**Author:** ![littlespeedysuperbike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/53a042/32.png) [@littlespeedysuperbike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/littlespeedysuperbike)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/105 "2016-11-08T02:50:29Z")

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Clinton 408 on 51% vote share  
Trump 124 on 43% vote share

53 Democrats in the Senate  
8.1% third party

Tiebreaker: Evan McMullin wins 39% and with it Utah.

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**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/106 "2016-11-08T04:02:45Z")

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Electoral College:  
Clinton 322  
Trump 216

Senate: 51 D/49 R

3rd Parties: 6.2%

McMullin in Utah: 27.5%

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**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/107 "2016-11-08T04:08:10Z")

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Decided to give Trump the electoral vote for Maine’s 2nd District to avoid the 323/215 pile-up

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**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/108 "2016-11-08T04:37:43Z")

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> [@furt](#):
>
> Trump 275  
> Clinton 265  
> Senate 50/50  
> 3rd party 5.7%

Updating to

Trump 264  
Clinton 274  
Senate 50/50  
Third Party 5.1%  
McMuffin 27.5%

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![bibliophage](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bibliophage/32/7615_2.png) [@bibliophage](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bibliophage)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/109 "2016-11-08T04:43:16Z")

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Clinton 323, Trump 215  
Senate 51 R, 49 D  
Third parties, 6.5%  
McMullin 25.2%

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**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/110 "2016-11-08T05:41:23Z")

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Trump 279  
Clinton 259

Senate 53 R, 47 D

3rd Parties 7.3%

McMullin 28.3%

EDIT: Just saw I didn’t make JC’s 12 Eastern deadline. It’s before 12 Central here, but if I’m out, I’m out. Good luck to everyone!

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**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/111 "2016-11-08T12:17:30Z")

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Sorry Gray Ghost, you can play for bragging rights!

With voting closed we have 54 participants. Good luck to everyone. Cross your fingers.

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**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/112 "2016-11-08T12:31:44Z")

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> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#):
>
> Sorry Gray Ghost, you can play for bragging rights!
> 
> With voting closed we have 54 participants. Good luck to everyone. Cross your fingers.

How am I supposed to type like that?

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/113 "2016-11-08T12:42:04Z")

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I don’t care about the contest or the rules but I’ll just toss out a generalized prediction:

Clinton wins 307-231

The Senate splits 50-50

Repubs keep House 239 R 196 R

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\
**Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/114 "2016-11-09T17:32:28Z")

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So who won?

Even though the results aren’t final-final yet (I can easily see MI switching in a recount), and I’m still hazy on the scoring rubric, it’s looking like [Enlightened Meditation](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19755747&postcount=59) might have this one.

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**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\
**Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/115 "2016-11-09T22:42:15Z")

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Maybe we should also have a “most wrong” prize? Did anyone else guess Trump at all?

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**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\
**Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/116 "2016-11-10T00:37:25Z")

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> [@Enlightening\_Meditation](#):
>
> Trump electoral college votes: **301** (red/lean red states + toss up states + Michigan + Pennsylvania, if my math is correct)  
> Clinton electoral college votes: **237**  
> Senate: **51** Republican / **49** Democratic  
> Combined 3rd party popular vote: **4.4%**  
> McMullin Utah vote: **23.8%**
> 
> Cool game. I hope to be way wrong as I dislike Clinton less than Trump. My hunch is that the pissed off rust belt vote is not well measured by polls having spent much time in MI, OH, & PA.

Looks like you are absolutely correct. Nice work.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/117 "2016-11-10T16:40:14Z")

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Congratulations!

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Scribble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scribble/32/3317_2.png) [@Scribble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scribble)\
**Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/118 "2016-11-10T16:53:49Z")

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Electoral votes aren’t cast yet. For those of us who feel that the Electoral College votes should reflect the popular vote, there’s this petition: [Petition · Electoral College: Make Hillary Clinton President. · Change.org](https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19?recruiter=343707648&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=autopublish&utm_term=des-lg-no_src-reason_msg)

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/119 "2016-11-10T17:15:11Z")

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> [@Scribble](#):
>
> Electoral votes aren’t cast yet. For those of us who feel that the Electoral College votes should reflect the popular vote, there’s this petition: [Petition · Electoral College: Make Hillary Clinton President. - United States · Change.org](https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19?recruiter=343707648&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=autopublish&utm_term=des-lg-no_src-reason_msg)

Wow, now that’s some sour grapes.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\
**Post date:** [November 10, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/contest-electoral-results-with-prizes/770403/120 "2016-11-10T17:58:04Z")

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> [@HurricaneDitka](#):
>
> Wow, now that’s some sour grapes.

Yes, how crass to suggest that the top vote-getter should win! The will of the people _should_ be disregarded.

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