They might give up this time, this election, this candidacy, but there are cottages of misinformation and conspiracy theories that are sprouting up all over the place.
Which hasn’t really changed with Trump, except that the lip service got a lot louder. The Republicans had 2 years of complete control of Congress and the Presidency, then 2 more without the House, and they used it to:
- Massively cut taxes for the rich and for corporations
- Put a bunch of Federalist Society judges on the bench.
They barely attempted any other policy goal. Everything else is pretty much a rounding error.
Like when they split up the phone company.
I read last night that white voters had fallen three points as a percentage of the total vote this presidential election cycle (from 70% to 67% after dropping from 72% from 2012 to '16 ) while Hispanic voters increased two points and black voters increased by another point. College educated voters increased by a point and women outvoted men by about four points (I’m a little fuzzy on my memory for that one).
Those trends will continue. Whether the demographic groups continue to vote as they have been trending is certainly open to reasonable conjecture and debate but as it stands right now, none of that is good news for Republicans in future elections.
The GOP appears to be hanging its hat on the traditional belief – not very well supported by fact – that younger voters will trend more conservative as they age and that post-Zoomer generations will be more conservative (more hope on their part than anything else). They are missing the point that the Millennials and Zoomers have started out further to the left on the political spectrum than previous generations did and any future rightward tracking will not reach same point where Trumpists and Tea Partiers are now. Those generations think health care and college should be affordable for everyone and that climate change is a serious problem and they’re not going to come off those beliefs because Republicans hope they do.
I agree with all the above. But …
Given the outsized Congressional power of the rural (mostly white, not particularly male) vote, the Rs may be controlling Congress with decent regularity for another 40 years after they elect their last President.
More plausibly of course they’ll figure out a different way to “triangulate” so they win enough presidencies as well.
Just as we have the LW and the RW broadcast / internet / social media bubbles today, it is not implausible that better market segmention (isolation really) could sell the plutocrat Republicans on one reality, the Soccer Mom/Dad Republicans on another, and the rural/redneck Republicans on a third. With none being much the wiser about the other two.
And lest folks think I’m R-bashing, this same fantasy-based market segmentation could play a large role in LW politics going forward. Trump showed the power of enthusiasm to well … trump everything else in it’s path.
We of the left need to work hard to prevent a LW demagogue who might prove as effective as Trump at substituting noise for substance.
They’re also ignoring another widespread belief about generational change; every generation reacts in opposition to the previous one. A lot of what Republicans are calling a natural progression to conservatism as voters age can also be interpreted as older voters rejecting the liberal beliefs of the sixties. So the up and coming generation of voters is very likely in turn to reject the conservative beliefs of these voters who grew up in the Reagan era.
Something I raised a couple of weeks back which would be on-topic here:
# Most Republicans Say They Doubt the Election. How Many Really Mean It?
Research has shown that the answers that partisans (on the left as well as on the right) give to political questions often reflect not what they know as fact, but what they wish were true. Or what they think they should say.
It’s incredibly hard to separate sincere belief from wishful thinking from what political scientists call partisan cheerleading. But on this topic especially, the distinctions matter a lot. Are Republican voters merely expressing support for the president by standing by his claims of fraud — in effectively the same way Republicans in Congress have — or have they accepted widespread fraud as true? Do these surveys suggest a real erosion in faith in American elections, or something more familiar, and temporary?
“The evidence is strong that a number of people out there, even if they know the truth, will give a cheerleading answer,” said Seth Hill, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego. Part of the president’s base appears eager to stick it to the establishment, he said. If those voters interpret surveys about the election’s legitimacy as part of that establishment, he said, “it’s quite possible they will use this as another vehicle to express that sentiment.”
Thanks for this link. I’m going to book mark it as a response whenever anyone posts some shocking poll that X% or Repbulicans or Y% of Democrats believe some dumb thing. They are a cheap way for news agencies to get clicks, from the other side who can engage in recreational outrage at how dumb the other side is, but they really don’t prove a thing.
Good points.
Ref the last sentence, it’s also valuable for Progressives such as me to remember that Progress, when we make it, is often accompanied by a backlash in the next generation who reject in turn the ethics of their elders.
To a much greater degree than either side would prefer, it’s 2 steps forward, 1 step back in one direction for 20-30 years, then 2 steps forward, 1 step back in the opposite direction for the next 20-30 years. Lather rinse repeat.
Obtaining any net long term motion requires prodigious effort while the generational tide is running your way and prodigious obstructionism while the generational tide is not.
Another data point is that Trump has raised more than $150 million in campaign contributions since Election Day. This is unheard of. It’s more than the campaign raised in any single month leading up to the election. And it’s largely from small-dollar donors buying his line that the election was stolen and he needs their help to keep fighting.
Proving once and for all that there is accounting for stupidity.
I think there are two factors at work here.
This is the first one. Trump is making money by telling people there was election fraud. As long as suckers are willing to send Trump their money, he will be willing to tell them whatever they want to hear.
The second factor is legitimacy. Election fraud is the new birtherism. The Republicans acknowledge that Biden is going to be President. But they want a way to be able to spend the next four years pretending he’s not really the legitimate President.
Yup, good point. And somehow the money Trump raises for the election fraud fraud, is going to end up in his pocket.
I’m gonna have a little trouble explaining myself with this response but the theory of post-Zoomer generations turning rightward as a sort of backlash is that the growing number of systemic problems (health care, college affordability, decline of blue collar jobs, etc) the country will be facing in the decades to come can’t be solved with conservative solutions. At least not with current conservative solutions, which seem to consist generally of tax cuts and letting the market sort things out. Solutions which are only making things worse.
I think the growing gap in health and welfare between the strong social safety net countries of western Europe and the US will only emphasize how poorly our traditional methods of addressing them are faring.
But of course I may be getting totally ahead of myself. Only a few of Gen Z have even poked their heads into the political arena as of yet, let alone the children of Zoomers.
Any of these problems can be addressed by RW solutions: “The bad {whatever} would not happen if everybody was just more conformist! Plus, we blame Those Bad People for causing it, not Good People like you!”
You’re right that won’t solve the {whatever} problem, but it can make a lot of low-information people feel far better about their predicament. Which is often enough to get their vote.
Further, to the degree the US education system continues to implode for so many, those populist solutions will become an ever easier sell.
TLDR: People & countries under great under stress usually turn right. If the future will be more stressful, it’ll also be more rightful.
I can’t argue with any of this as a very real possibility. My hope is that the two dominant generations (to come) in the US electorate are better than all that. So far they’ve given me reason not to abandon that hope.
That’s the funny thing. Trump’s a conman but he’s not a competent one. The evidence is saying that the people around him are ripping him off and taking all of the money as fast as it comes in. Trump’s probably going to end up broke again after this is all over.
I certainly hope your hope pans out. That would be far better for the USA and humanity at large.
Have to agree Nemo. He is a very bad con-man. But that’s all he knows. I mean really, charging double prices on his hotels for the rooms for Secret Service protection details?
I know SS is not paying for that but we are. BUT, these guys are professionals and I’m sure highly intelligent. I would hope that at least half of them understand what a crook he is, and will treat him accordingly when Biden takes office.