# Convince Me that John Kerry Is Electable
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [January 25, 2004, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032 "2004-01-25T19:49:50Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 3
### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 27, 2004, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/41 "2004-01-27T07:18:04Z")
> [@](#):
>
> In re: Kerry, his military record is not going to help as much as some think. Yes he won medals in 'Nam, but his post-war persona --publicly throwing medals (which turned out to be someone else’s) – is going to hurt him with the very people that would otherwise be impressed.
Well, the Doonesbury link has me persuaded. :rolleyes: Veterans seem to be responding to him so far, and he’s got yards more credibility that way than GWB no matter how you slice it.
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 27, 2004, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/42 "2004-01-27T15:13:56Z")
> [@furt](#):
>
> In re: Kerry, his military record is not going to help as much as some think. Yes he won medals in 'Nam, but his [post-war persona](http://www.doonesbury.ucomics.com/strip/dailydose/index19711021.htm) --publicly throwing medals (which turned out to be someone else’s) – is going to hurt him with the very people that would otherwise be impressed.
I hadn’t thought about that, but then I saw a New Hampshire veteran interviewed on the news last night, and he expressed that very sentiment. He had no use for a man who would pull that kind of stunt.
> [@Evil Captor](#):
>
> As for ‘Southern Strategy’ I suppose when the Dems are ready to embrace racism and animal stupidity they’ll be able to compete with the Pubbies in the South. The people who call for attention to the South dress up Southern issues very prettily, but at heart they boil down to appeals to racism and religious fundamentalism. Fuck 'em. And I say this as a born and bred Southernenr.
Yeah, we love it when you sweet talk us.
That is just the kind of bullshit stereotyping that will get the Democrats slaughtered in the South. And it IS bullshit. You don’t need to appeal to racism or fundamentalism to win votes in the South. What will win votes in the South is good old middle class populism. Bread and butter issues. This should be the strength of the Democratic Party, but they are either busy stereotyping the South (like Evil Captor), pandering on religion (as Dean awkwardly tried to do), or foolishly responding to Republican attempts to create wedge (non-) issues (like gay marriage).
Stick to the populism. Stick to the tax code issues. Explain how Bush is robbing from the middle class to give to the wealthy. Explain how Republican attacks on the estate tax, the capital gains tax, and tax on dividends ultimately harm the middle class by forcing them to carry the bulk of the nation’s tax burden.
Talk about health care.
Talk about the environment in the South. Southerners see their forests vanishing, and the rivers they once swam in become dangerously contaminated. They know the fish they catch are no longer safe to eat in many places. They see cities like Houston and Atlanta overwhelmed with smog. Environmental issues will resonate here, but national politicians don’t seem to recognize that. They think the way to win Southern votes is to eat a plate of barbecue on camera, or show up in a church pew. Very frustrating.
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### Author:  [@PhDMetalhead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhDMetalhead)
#### Post date: [January 27, 2004, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/43 "2004-01-27T15:34:19Z")
> [@spoke-](#):
>
> Stick to the populism. Stick to the tax code issues. Explain how Bush is robbing from the middle class to give to the wealthy. Explain how Republican attacks on the estate tax, the capital gains tax, and tax on dividends ultimately harm the middle class by forcing them to carry the bulk of the nation’s tax burden.
>
> Talk about health care.
>
> Talk about the environment in the South. Southerners see their forests vanishing, and the rivers they once swam in become dangerously contaminated. They know the fish they catch are no longer safe to eat in many places. They see cities like Houston and Atlanta overwhelmed with smog. Environmental issues will resonate here, but national politicians don’t seem to recognize that. They think the way to win Southern votes is to eat a plate of barbecue on camera, or show up in a church pew. Very frustrating.
We’ll see how well this works if Kerry gets the nomination, since you basically just described most of his platform. I’ve heard him hit ALL of those points - hard - in almost every appearance; I’m sure he will do so in the South as well. Since you focused most on environmental issues, let me tell you this - that is, above all else, what attracted me to John Kerry in the first place. His environmental record in the Senate is unbeatable, with a 97% lifetime (i.e. almost twenty years) favorable rating from the League of Conservation Voters (which is why they endorsed him last week, the first time they’ve ever endorsed a candidate in the Democratic primaries).
I don’t want to turn this into a campaign commercial, so please go to his website ([www.johnkerry.com](http://www.johnkerry.com)) if you want more information; there are whole sections under “issues”, including one on the environment.
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### Author:  [@erislover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erislover)
#### Post date: [January 27, 2004, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/44 "2004-01-27T19:24:16Z")
> [@spoke-](#):
>
> 1. I (and many other Southerners, **including many in North Florida** ) will want to make it clear what a “Screw the South” strategy means. So it will be a message of sorts.
You then go on to say,
> [@](#):
>
> Hell, we all know that Kerry (along with a lot of other New England Democrats) doesn’t give a tinker’s damn about the South, but what kind of idiot would admit it on the campaign trail?
Help me make sense of this please. I cannot understand how you wouldn’t vote for the man iff he lived up to your expectations.
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 27, 2004, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/45 "2004-01-27T20:04:56Z")
> [@erislover](#):
>
> Help me make sense of this please. I cannot understand how you wouldn’t vote for the man iff he lived up to your expectations.
I suppose that before, I only _suspected_ that Kerry had no concern for the South. I had _hoped_ (counter to my intuition) that if nominated he might actually pursue a national campaign instead of turning my party into a provincial irrelevancy. I was wrong to hold out such hope.
And I have no intention of voting for a man who has said _in plain language_ that it is a mistake for the Democratic candidate to look South. To hell with him.
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### Author:  [@erislover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erislover)
#### Post date: [January 27, 2004, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/46 "2004-01-27T20:42:05Z")
I see. Hmm. So it would make no difference, for example, if his platform was agreeable but he didn’t campaign directly _for_ the southern vote…? I’m just trying to understand this mentality. No one really fights over Massachusetts, so I guess I’m just used to being ignored.
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### Author:  [@Stoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoid)
#### Post date: [January 27, 2004, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/47 "2004-01-27T20:48:26Z")
> [@Evil Captor](#):
>
> Dean is angry. So am I. I think a lot of Americans are angry and would happily vote for a man who articulates their anger. I think Dean is more electable than Clark, Kerry or Edwards, in every state.
Considering that I am widely assumed to be an angry Democrat, you might be interested to know that I think you are dead wrong.
Dean has been great for getting other Dems fired up. It’s nice to have someone express our anger. But that won’t get him elected, it will prevent him from getting elected.
The people who decide the elections are the swiing voters. The swings are uncomfortable with Dean. I’m a hardcore Lefty and \* I’m \* uncomfortable with Dean.
Dean is toast, or should be. He cannot win.
> [@spoke-](#):
>
> And I have no intention of voting for a man who has said _in plain language_ that it is a mistake for the Democratic candidate to look South. To hell with him.
Except he didn’t, and you’re being weirdly touchy.
He said he didn’t believe the conventional wisdom that it is impossible to win without the south. He’s correct. That is not the same as dismissing Southern people or the things that are important to them, not even close. He’s talking about winning the electoral college. It is in fact possible to win sufficient electoral votes without winning a single Southern state. Why do you insist on making this a personal insult?
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 27, 2004, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/48 "2004-01-27T21:24:00Z")
> [@stoid](#):
>
> Except he didn’t, and you’re being weirdly touchy.
Well, yes he did. Here’s his remark:
> [@](#):
>
> Everybody always makes the mistake of looking South. Al Gore proved he could have been president of the United States without winning one Southern state, including his own.
Like I said, plain language.
Am I being “weirdly touchy?” Maybe, but that’s a cultural trait of Southerners, so I suppose it’s in my nature. Kerry can expect to encounter plenty more “touchy” Southerners with remarks like that.
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 27, 2004, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/49 "2004-01-27T21:39:09Z")
I see that I’m not the only one who [doesn’t understand Kerry’s appeal](http://slate.msn.com/id/2094401/).
And I disagree with you strongly about Dean’s electability. I think he is much more electable than Kerry. What you and the pundits call “anger,” I call “backbone,” and it’s a trait that has been sorely lacking in Democratic candidates until Dean arrived. Bless him, I say.
Furthermore, I think Dean would actually have more appeal in middle America (including the South) than Kerry. Republican pundits have been trying to undermine Dean’s campaign by sowing the seeds of the “unelectability” stories, but I think those stories are dead wrong.
Dean has a macho “regular guy” quality which Kerry lacks. I am sick and tired of Democrats nominating milquetoasts, because that (as much as anything) kills them in these parts. (Yes, image matters.)
I would be quite happy if Dean, Edwards or Clark won the nomination, as I think any of those three would have a real chance of beating Bush. Kerry? Not a chance in Hell.
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/50 "2004-01-28T00:16:24Z")
Let me see if I get this straight: Kerry says he probably won’t win many Southern votes. This angers Southern voter **spoke-** , who says he won’t vote for Kerry. This accomplishes what?
What you call Dean having backbone, most people are calling psycho. Kerry’s comment about votes bothers you, but Dean’s comment about guys who have Confederate flags on their pickup trucks doesn’t? I can see a guy born on Park Avenue who grew up in the Hamptons having problems in the South too…
I’m not convinced that Dean has so much backbone. He just blusters a lot, which is a good way to fake it. He supported an alternate war resolution to the one that passed that wouldn’t have changed a thing. Most of the time he pretends that didn’t happen, the rest of the time he says that resolution (which would have required Bush to speak to Congress but not get a vote) would have stopped the war. Who is he kidding?
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/51 "2004-01-28T00:25:26Z")
…Even as the Slate guy is mocking Kerry, he DOES list some good points. Most of the article is irrelevant anyway- what does Cleeland’s speech have to do with Kerry? The writer seems to be being thick intentionally.
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### Author:  [@Mal\_Adroit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mal_Adroit)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/52 "2004-01-28T13:53:03Z")
Hm, no further buzz since Kerry buried Dean again in NH.
Frankly, I don’t see what’s _unelectable_ about the guy. The South thing? If he’s able to hold on to this current momentum, I don’t even think that old saw will continue to hold much water. Especially if he takes Edwards or somebody like that for VP.
Hey, JFK was a New England Catholic, for cripes’ sake. Yeah I know, its generally accepted that his dad bought him the election, but Kennedy went on to be one of our most popular presidents. Except among the right-wing cabal who had him killed. But I digress.
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/53 "2004-01-28T17:24:37Z")
> [@Marley23](#):
>
> Let me see if I get this straight: Kerry says he probably won’t win many Southern votes…
That’s not what he said. Quit trying to put a positive spin on it. He said it’s a MISTAKE to look South. In other words, he doesn’t feel he needs (and apparently doesn’t _want_ the South’s help.
Don’t piss on me and tell me it’s raining.
[More evidence of Kerry’s unelectability from Newsday.](http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-uskerr283645552jan28,0,979730.story?coll=ny-nationalnews-headlines)
> [@](#):
>
> Kerry is consistently rated one of the 10 most liberal senators - more liberal on economic issues than 95 percent of his colleagues in a National Journal magazine ranking based on 2002 votes. In some rankings, the Republicans delight in pointing out, Kerry is even to the left of liberal icon and fellow Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy.
>
> …
>
> “In the short run, his record is not necessarily a hindrance, but in the long run, it may be a real problem,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor for the Rothenberg Political Report. "Once President Bush begins to focus his $100 million-plus, the attack will be, ‘He’s out of touch, Massachusetts is not indicative of the rest of the country and he’s not one of us.’ "
Precisely. A Kerry nomination will spell doom for the Democrats.
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### Author:  [@Mal\_Adroit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mal_Adroit)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/54 "2004-01-28T17:45:53Z")
> [@spoke-](#):
>
> A Kerry nomination will spell doom for the Democrats.
And a Dean nomination would have put us on Easy Street?
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### Author:  [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/55 "2004-01-28T18:00:18Z")
I don’t understand how anyone can let their stupid regional pride determine their vote in this election.
My God! I’d vote for a Charles Manson/Jim Jones ticket if it would get Fearless Misleader out of the White House! What is this regional pride thing that’s going to stick us with four more years of Shrubya?
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/56 "2004-01-28T18:31:47Z")
> [@jayjay](#):
>
> My God! I’d vote for a Charles Manson/Jim Jones ticket if it would get Fearless Misleader out of the White House! What is this regional pride thing that’s going to stick us with four more years of Shrubya?
“Shrubya?” “Fearless Misleader?”
No offense, but you don’t exactly sound like the sort of swing voter who will turn the election.
The question is not how Kerry plays with the left. We KNOW the answer to that question. What matters is how he will play to the center. Answer: not well.
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### Author:  [@Sofa\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sofa_King)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/57 "2004-01-28T18:48:47Z")
I have no real opinion yet on Kerry’s ability to push through a national election. I will point out that if he gets the nomination he will still have logged far more personal campaign time than Bush has. And if the Senate grinds into gridlock yet again as Senator Stevens predicts, Kerry’s going to have a whole lot of free time on his hands, too (of course, that didn’t work for Bob Dole).
There is, however, one exquisite possible irony lingering out there. I’ll try to tiptoe carefully up to it.
I know a few members of the service, and were very displeased when all those rumors about Bush cutting military health benefits and combat pay popped up last year. As best I can tell, the allegation that Bush cut combat pay is [bullshit](http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A23741-2003Nov30). But bullshit can be sticky, as those of us who invented the Internet recall.
Chances are that in November a significant proportion of the military will be deployed overseas, some of them will be in dangerous places, and some of them will be refitting after a year of being in dangerous places. George Bush may not be as much the soldier’s friend as he once was to a lot of those people.
You may recall the, ah, “recent unpleasantness” of the year 2000, especially in Florida. You may also recall that a significant amount of the controversy surrounded the counting of [late arriving and unpostmarked](http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=15614) military absentee ballots.
Well, you’ll be happy to know that Florida rectified this problem by changing the law so that next time there will be no question as to whether or not the ballots were filled out and sent from overseas while the election returns in the state were already being tallied. They will _all_ be counted as valid, no matter what:
> [@](#):
>
> (2) For absentee ballots received from overseas voters, there is a presumption that the envelope was mailed on the date stated and witnessed on the outside of the return envelope, regardless of the absence of a postmark on the mailed envelope or the existence of a postmark date that is later than the date of the election. – [101.6952](http://www.flsenate.gov/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=Ch0101/SEC6952.HTM&Title=-%3E2003-%3ECh0101-%3ESection%206952)
Things could turn out bad if Kerry wins the approval of the military and then things get close in Florida. On the other hand, the President’s brother is in charge of printing, distributing, and counting the ballots. So you never know…
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/58 "2004-01-28T18:52:55Z")
> [@](#):
>
> The question is not how Kerry plays with the left. We KNOW the answer to that question. What matters is how he will play to the center. Answer: not well.
Except that New Hampshire’s system allows independents, who would count as swing voters, to vote, and they chose Kerry. You seem to have just moved the criticisms of Dean to a different candidate, and they don’t stick. Despite the “liberal” thing, he does not follow the dictates of the party like some do, and I think that helps his appeal with swing voters. As far as the South goes, he just picked up an endorsement from Clyburn in South Carolina. It’s hard to know how he’ll do down there since the data won’t yet reflect his win last night.
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/59 "2004-01-28T19:31:55Z")
[QUOTE=Marley23]
…You seem to have just moved the criticisms of Dean to a different candidate…QUOTE]
Not at all.
In fact Dean (despite his hard-to-explain appeal to former Greenies) seems quite moderate. I never understood how the “liberal” tag fit him. But the fact that he was successfully tarred as a liberal just goes to show you how stong the preception is that “Northeastern Democrat” = “liberal.” If they were able to make that stick to Dean, just imagine what they could do to Kerry (who has an actual liberal voting record). Toss in a couple of photos of Kerry hugging Ted Kennedy or hanging out with Jane Fonda and, well, you get the idea.
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### Author:  [@Art\_Barber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Art_Barber)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/60 "2004-01-28T20:02:43Z")
Sure, Kerry is electable. One reason not yet mentioned: presidential debates.
Bush is a dunce. Catch his State of the Union speech? Some in the right wing media have suggested that Bush has grown into the job in terms of his public speaking, but the minimal gains made have been primarily due to the fact that he is working from prepared text, polished by seasoned speechwriters. Media access to Bush is tightly controlled; his handlers don’t want a skeptical press to back him into a political corner. During a presidential debate, he would have to speak extemporarily on important matters of state against Kerry. Say what you want about Kerry’s patrician mannerisms, but recognize that in a tight race Bushes’ fumbling, stumbling, deer-in-the-headlights mannerisms could very well do him in. He won’t have speechwriters and policy wonks to bail him out. He will be on his own.
Art
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