# Convince Me that John Kerry Is Electable
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [January 25, 2004, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032 "2004-01-25T19:49:50Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 4
### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/61 "2004-01-28T20:26:16Z")
> [@Art Barber](#):
>
> Sure, Kerry is electable. One reason not yet mentioned: presidential debates.
>
> Bush is a dunce. Catch his State of the Union speech? Some in the right wing media have suggested that Bush has grown into the job in terms of his public speaking, but the minimal gains made have been primarily due to the fact that he is working from prepared text, polished by seasoned speechwriters. Media access to Bush is tightly controlled; his handlers don’t want a skeptical press to back him into a political corner. During a presidential debate, he would have to speak extemporarily on important matters of state against Kerry. Say what you want about Kerry’s patrician mannerisms, but recognize that in a tight race Bushes’ fumbling, stumbling, deer-in-the-headlights mannerisms could very well do him in. He won’t have speechwriters and policy wonks to bail him out. He will be on his own.
That sounds almost exactly like what people were saying before the Bush-Gore debates.
Underestimate Bush at your peril.
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### Author:  [@plnnr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/plnnr)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/62 "2004-01-28T20:37:42Z")
“Toss in a couple of photos of Kerry hugging Ted Kennedy or hanging out with Jane Fonda and, well, you get the idea.”
Toss in a couple of photos of dead servicemen laying in the sands of Iraq, and no WMD found, and a couple of photos of out of work textile workers (and their 2,000,000 jobless compatriots since Bush took office in 2000) and, a couple of pictures of “Kenny Boy” Lay, and, well, you get the idea.
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### Author:  [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/63 "2004-01-28T20:39:59Z")
> [@spoke-](#):
>
> That sounds almost exactly like what people were saying before the Bush-Gore debates.
>
> Underestimate Bush at your peril.
That’s nothing like what people were saying before the Bush-Gore debates. They were talking about watching the Genius Statue debate the Idiot Fratboy; what we ended up seeing was Gore alternately sneering at Bush and agreeing with him on substantive policy. He came across as a contemptuous hypocrite in the debates. AND STILL GOT MORE VOTES.
Kerry, from what I’ve seen, doesn’t ooze insincerity the way Gore did in 2000. He’s not my first pick, but he’s got his head in the right place, and he comes across as honest and not prone to following the polls for every position. (Not that these things matter to me – I’d vote for a pathological liar if I held the same policy positions as she did – but a lot of voters consider character to be important)
Still and all, my preference would be to see Edwards debate Bush. One of Edwards’s primary strengths is his rhetorical skill and his ability to play to an audience, IMO, and I would dearly love to watch him reduce Bush to a quaking shivering mass on national television. But that’s just the sadist in me talking :).
At this point, though I’d prefer an Edwards candidate or a Dean president, I’m thinking we’re going to get a Kerry/Edwards ticket. And I’m cautiously hopeful for their chances in November.
Daniel
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### Author:  [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/64 "2004-01-28T20:50:54Z")
All Kerry (or Edwards, or Dean, or whoever) has to do is to publically challenge George W. Bush to a live, unscripted (no questions available in advance) debate.
Either Bush chickens out and reveals himself as the clueless puppet that he is, or Bush shows up and gets whupped like the clueless puppet that he is. Either way is fine with me. 😉
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### Author:  [@Snag](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snag)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/65 "2004-01-28T23:12:43Z")
> [@spoke-](#):
>
> That sounds almost exactly like what people were saying before the Bush-Gore debates.
>
> Underestimate Bush at your peril.
So true. Rather than ignoring Bush, pay attention to the men behind the curtain. They’re the ones that got him there, and they pedal a lot more influence 3 1/2 years later.
As an independent “anyone but Bush” voter, I feel that Kerry may carry his party but Kerry won’t carry the swing voter. I see Wes Clark as the only candidate that the disappointed Republican might embrace. He’s an outsider that’s been around government all his adult life, and has a war record x2 of Kerry. He won’t be considered a regular Joe either, but he has stellar qualifications that should suit the office.
The Democrats need to realize Kerry’s dyed-in-the-wool party membership is going to work against them in such a tight election. Clark may be a Johnny-come-lately to the Democratic party, yet that suggests an open mindedness that’s going to be critical in giving confidence to the 3% to 5% of swing voters that will make the difference come November.
Barring disaster, the Bush machine will keep the swing voter margin that close.
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### Author:  [@Titan2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Titan2)
#### Post date: [January 28, 2004, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/66 "2004-01-28T23:15:21Z")
> [@Marley23](#):
>
> Except that New Hampshire’s system allows independents, who would count as swing voters, to vote, and they chose Kerry. You seem to have just moved the criticisms of Dean to a different candidate, and they don’t stick. Despite the “liberal” thing, he does not follow the dictates of the party like some do, and I think that helps his appeal with swing voters. As far as the South goes, he just picked up an endorsement from Clyburn in South Carolina. It’s hard to know how he’ll do down there since the data won’t yet reflect his win last night.
The biggest thing I got from last nights marathon hardball coverage was an exit poll that showed something like 70% of those indie votes for Kerry were of the “anybody but Bush-we want him out,and Kerry seems the most electable”
If this sentiment holds in future primaries (any other states let you vote as indie?),could be a key to a Kerry win,that is,if the future primaries in MO.Wisc.and maybe the Sowest keep reporting the same vote pcs.between candidates.
Seems to be a real “hate” backlash going on with more than the registered Dems harboring that sentiment.
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 29, 2004, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/67 "2004-01-29T15:23:05Z")
An [article in Salon](http://www.salon.com/news/wire/2004/01/29/kerry_bush/index.html) today says some Republican operatives now regret attacking Dean because it led to the rise of Kerry, whom they consider a more formidable opponent.
Now, it seems, they are holding back on attacking Kerry until the general election, because they don’t want to do anything to help the campaign of the man they _really_ fear, **John Edwards**.
From the article:
> [@](#):
>
> Knocking down Kerry now, they say, could help ignite the candidacy of a Democrat some Bush campaign officials fear even more: Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who finished a strong second in Iowa but slumped to fourth place in New Hampshire, just behind retired Gen. Wesley Clark, his other Southern rival. A recent poll showed Edwards with a slight lead in South Carolina’s critical primary next Tuesday, and he holds a strong appeal elsewhere in the South, which was Bush Country in 2000.
>
> Some Bush campaign advisers worry that Edwards’ promise to end what the candidate charges are the “two Americas” – one for the wealthy and privileged and the other for working people and the poor – could have broad appeal. Bush operatives are also mindful that in Edwards’ 1998 election, about six in 10 women backed him, and black voters supported him by a 9-to-1 margin.
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### Author:  [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)
#### Post date: [January 29, 2004, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/68 "2004-01-29T16:54:12Z")
**spoke-** , also from that ABC news link: “I think the fight is all over this country,” Kerry said. “Forget about those red and blue states. We’re going to change that now, and we’re going to go out there and change the face of America.”
To me he was simply saying that one does not necessarily need the south to win the election, not that the south as a whole was an unimportant part of the country.
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### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [January 29, 2004, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/69 "2004-01-29T20:05:37Z")
Titan2, that poll showed that, _among those NH voters whose #1 concern was electability,_ 69% voted Kerry. As for what issues they had as #1, the war was down around 15%, with environment and health care #1 and #2 - and among those who had those as their top concerns, Kerry was the easy winner too.
\*\*spoke-, \*\* that Salon article simply shows that the people who lost by half a million votes last time still don’t understand what’s going on. Not that many of us really do, but we don’t pretend to or make our livings dependent upon it. They’re right about the “two Americas” issue having resonance now, just as it did when Mario Cuomo made his “shining city on a hill” speech in '88, and in a long tradition starting probably in ancient Athens. The nominee, whoever it is, will likely take that populist tack, also knowing how it won for Gore. The Reps will, in turn, be simply sneering “Liberal! Liberal! Liberal!” no matter who it is.
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 29, 2004, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/70 "2004-01-29T20:11:00Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#):
>
> The Reps will, in turn, be simply sneering “Liberal! Liberal! Liberal!” no matter who it is.
Yes, but in the case of Kerry they’ll have much more ammunition.
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### Author:  [@Sofa\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sofa_King)
#### Post date: [January 29, 2004, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/71 "2004-01-29T22:11:14Z")
> [@spoke-](#):
>
> Underestimate Bush at your peril.
I think it would have been better if you had said, "[_mis_underestimate Bush at your peril](http://www.snopes.com/politics/bush/piehigher.asp).
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 29, 2004, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/72 "2004-01-29T23:10:01Z")
> [@](#):
>
> Yes, but in the case of Kerry they’ll have much more ammunition.
They’d have more ammunition if it was Dean, and I think arguably more if it was Clark.
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 29, 2004, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/73 "2004-01-29T23:16:54Z")
> [@Marley23](#):
>
> They’d have more ammunition if it was Dean, and I think arguably more if it was Clark.
How so? (With respect to each?)
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 29, 2004, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/74 "2004-01-29T23:28:22Z")
Dean gives lots of ammo because he has no service record to back up his war criticisms. He’s also drawn a fire for his public comments on lots of issues, which tend to be very indelicate to say the least.
Clark has some very liberal positions too, like eliminating the income tax for families making under $50,000 per year.
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### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [January 29, 2004, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/75 "2004-01-29T23:47:28Z")
> [@Marley23](#):
>
> Clark has some very liberal positions too, like eliminating the income tax for families making under $50,000 per year.
Hadn’t heard that one before, but assuming it’s accurate, you think that position makes Clark \less\ electable?
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2004, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/76 "2004-01-30T01:10:02Z")
> [@](#):
>
> Hadn’t heard that one before, but assuming it’s accurate, you think that position makes Clark \less\ electable?
It’s on his website. I don’t think it hurts, I just have no idea how it’s supposed to work.
And actually, speaking of taxes I forgot the main thing that I think could hurt Dean: he supports increasing taxes for everybody. Wants to repeal the entire Bush tax cut (his opponents want to roll back the cuts for the rich). I support expanding healthcare, which is what he wants to do with the money, but campaign promises of HIGHER taxes don’t have a very high success rate.
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### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2004, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/77 "2004-01-30T04:32:52Z")
I should clarify a bit. I think many voters will think that’s too protectionist of the poor, and many middle-class voters will resent having a bigger chunk of the tax burden shifted to them. Clark says nobody else’s taxes will change except those making over $1 million a year, and I’m not sure the math adds up.
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### Author:  [@Titan2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Titan2)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2004, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/78 "2004-01-30T16:19:16Z")
> [@](#):
>
> Titan2, that poll showed that, among those NH voters whose #1 concern was electability, 69% voted Kerry.
I was referring to a poll reported by one of the remote site staff at a voting precinct (s?),supposedly the largest in terms of raw head counts in the state.This question was only put to indie voters.And that pc for Kerry was because of the “anybody but Bush” sentiment/electabilty according to the reporter.
The broader range poll included every voter. (or maybe just the Dems?)
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### Author:  [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2004, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/79 "2004-01-30T17:38:43Z")
And this just in…
[http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&ncid=584&e=5&u=/nm/20040130/pl\_nm/campaign\_poll\_dc](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&ncid=584&e=5&u=/nm/20040130/pl_nm/campaign_poll_dc)
“Poll: Democrat Kerry Opens Big Leads in Missouri, Arizona…”
“Kerry has opened a 34-point lead in Missouri and a 21-point lead in Arizona, and trails John Edwards (news - web sites) by 1 point in South Carolina and Wesley Clark (news - web sites) by 8 points in Oklahoma in a three-day tracking poll of the four states…”
I agree with those Dopers who peg this to an “anti-Bush” sentiment more than to a “pro-Kerry” sentiment. It would appear that the movement toward Kerry has more to do with “electability” that with his stand on issues. This is all to the good, the Dems have far too often placed a noble stance above the practical, even somewhat dirty, truths about a democratic republic.
But don’t kid yourselves, this is gonna be one ugly sumbitch.
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### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2004, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/80 "2004-01-30T18:43:56Z")
> [@elucidator](#):
>
> But don’t kid yourselves, this is gonna be one ugly sumbitch.
True. The only thing that will be uglier is claims for each side that the other side is leading in the ugly dept. 🙂
Kerry has, what, 19 yrs in the Senate? Gotta be a gold mine for the mud slingers. Plus-- wasn’t he Lt Gov with Dukakis? And then there’s the photo ops with Kennedy during the primaries. Let’s not forget the best of all: Botox anyone?
I could conceivably vote for the chap if he tones down his “CEOs who send jobs offshore = Benedict Arnold” rhetoric and makes a strong case that he’ll reduce the size of government. And, if he **doesn’t** pick Gephardt as a running mate. We’ll see.
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