# Convince Me that John Kerry Is Electable
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [January 25, 2004, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032 "2004-01-25T19:49:50Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 6
### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [February 2, 2004, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/101 "2004-02-02T15:55:26Z")
> [@don't ask](#):
>
> Dean “is a fraud. A governor from a small state that has made no contribution to American public life.”
So was Clinton. Carr can’t be all that keen a student of US politics, then. We do generally pick either governors or VP’s as Presidents, every time since Kennedy at that, and the size of the state is not that relevant to us - the challenges faced are not that different. He also has no basis for saying Dean is a fraud - he’s done what he’s said he’s done, hasn’t he? Further, his comment about Vermont, or any state, “having made no contribution” is ignorance on the hoof.
So you’re right, that’s worthless, and so apparently is your Premier.
---
### Author:  [@athelas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/athelas)
#### Post date: [February 2, 2004, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/102 "2004-02-02T18:39:22Z")
[http://acuratings.com/acu.cgi?ACT=3&STATE=MA&YEAR=2003](http://acuratings.com/acu.cgi?ACT=3&STATE=MA&YEAR=2003)
According to the American Conservative Union, Kerry has a rating of 5 (out of 100), only two points above the K-guy. Mmm…
---
### Author:  [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)
#### Post date: [February 2, 2004, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/103 "2004-02-02T20:45:20Z")
[2/2 Quinnipiac Poll](http://www.boston.com/news/politics/polls/articles/2004/02/02/kerry_leads_dems_bush_in_quinnipiac_poll/)
> [@](#):
>
> The Quinnipiac University poll also gave the Massachusetts senator the edge, **51 percent to 42 percent** , in a head-to-head race with President Bush.
> …
> The poll also gave Bush an approval rating of 48 percent, the first time his approval has dipped below 50 percent in a Quinnipiac poll. Forty-five percent of those surveyed said they disapproved of the job the president is doing.
---
### Author:  [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)
#### Post date: [February 2, 2004, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/104 "2004-02-02T20:55:27Z")
> [@](#):
>
> Furthermore, the leanings of Democratic primary voters don’t tell us anything about swing voters, and that’s the real battleground.
Except that independents can vote in some of these states too, and that Dean’s supporters mostly identify as liberals. Kerry’s tends to come from across the spectrum and include more moderate Democrats who might have more in common with the swing voters.
> [@](#):
>
> Do I think Dean would play in the South? Much better than Kerry among swing voters. Dean has a very moderate record as a governor. Meanwhile, Kerry has a liberal track record as long as your arm. Nothing wrong with that, but it won’t play down here among swing voters. Kerry himself knows that.
So far, Dean’s not doing anything down South, so I’m not sure why you think he’d do well there. You say he can appeal to the working class types, but he’s proposed raising their taxes, which is a funny way of appealing.
> [@](#):
>
> You can fight for that constituency, as Dean wants to do, or abandon the field, as Kerry has chosen to do.
I’m not sure why you have such a bug up your ass over this. He hasn’t abandoned anything, he’s campaigned quite hard there so far. To say he’ll ‘abandon the field’ based on one comment is ridiculous.
---
### Author:  [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)
#### Post date: [February 2, 2004, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/105 "2004-02-02T21:28:27Z")
> [@athelas](#):
>
> [http://acuratings.com/acu.cgi?ACT=3&STATE=MA&YEAR=2003](http://acuratings.com/acu.cgi?ACT=3&STATE=MA&YEAR=2003)
>
> According to the American Conservative Union, Kerry has a rating of 5 (out of 100), only two points above the K-guy. Mmm…
Taken at face value that can sound pretty damaging (asssuming liberal = bad). But if you look at their web site, you’ll see that the vast majority of their ratings cluster in the single digits (for Dems) and in the 90s (for the Pubs). A scale like that doesn’t actually have a lot of information in it.
---
### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [February 2, 2004, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/106 "2004-02-02T23:13:15Z")
Dean is a moderate who has positioned himself as a liberal in the primaries (with the whole “Democratic wing of the Democratic Party” thing). Looked like a smart thing to do at first, but he may have succeeded too well, convincing people that he is _too_ liberal.
Thing is, in a general election, Dean has a record (fiscal conservatism, good standing with NRA, etc., etc.) which would have allowed him to run back to the center to pick up swing voters. He was following the classic “run to the left in the primaries, run back to the center in the general election” campaign.
What derailed him was the “electability” issue. Dean did such a good a job of convincing primary voters that he was a “liberal” that they decided that he was “too liberal” and that they needed someone “more moderate” to face Bush in the general election.
The irony is that Kerry, whose record is quite liberal, has somehow convinced primary voters that he is a moderate. (I’m guessing primary voters are defining “moderate” as “someone who has served in the military,” because Kerry does not otherwise qualify.)
I don’t think Kerry will be nearly as successful convincing general election voters (and swing voters in particular) that he is a moderate, particularly when that $200M Republican war chest is put to work dredging up and harping on his liberal record. Unlike Dean, Kerry doesn’t have a moderate political record which would allow him to successfully “run to the center.”
I don’t think Dean is the best candidate to face Bush. (I’d prefer Edwards or Clark), but I DO think Dean could do much better than Kerry.
Kerry is a liberal, and a big stiff (_a la_ Gore) to boot. Maybe he will prove me wrong, but I see disaster for the Democrats if (as it now seems will be the case) he is nominated.
---
### Author:  [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)
#### Post date: [February 4, 2004, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/107 "2004-02-04T19:40:22Z")
From James Howard Kunstler’s “Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle” at [http://www.kunstler.com/mags\_diary9.html:](http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary9.html:)
> [@](#):
>
> February 4, 2004
> And so now the presumed Democratic front runner, John Kerry, is morphing into the presumed nominee. But this odor of presumption, it seems to me, is what John Kerry has emanated since his prep school days, when he apparently first started thinking of himself as presidential material. I have to wonder what his fate would be had he been born with the body and voice of Dennis Kucinich.
> And this is what bothers me about Kerry: he seems all height and stentorian timbre and little else. He’s a schematic diagram of what a candidate ought to be, not a real candidate. He’s succeeded over the past month mainly by not saying anything substantial. This is so painfully obvious because, beyond his physical stature and bassoon-like voice, he doesn’t even seem to have anything you could call style. He impresses me as an empty vessel in LL Bean casuals.
> Yet the dark mood of the Democratic voters in these primaries demands somebody ‘electable’ (read: ‘not a nut.’) I don’t really believe that the ‘Dean Scream’ undid Howard, at least not in itself. It only emphasized a different tactical catastrophe: that he had finished so poorly in the Iowa caucauses themselves after being annointed by Al Gore, a bunch of big labor unions, plus Time and Newsweek. I think the reason he lost was that his ‘message,’ his bundle of issues and ideas, weren’t quite galvanizing enough. Most of all, the media and Dean’s own supporters might have misjudged the public’s feelings about the Iraq War. Despite all the WMD flim-flam stories, even a lot of Democrats believed that the war was necessary for a variety of reasons, and that being against the war just wasn’t enough to prod them to vote for Dean. In addition, he might not have been telegenic enough, so John Kerry won the Abe-Lincoln-look-a-like contest. Kerry is the Democrats cartoon Lincoln. Maybe that’s what a cartoon republic deserves.
> I grant it is even possible that Kerry can beat George W. Bush in November. The so-called economy (really a cheap loan and mortgage generating machine based on hallucinated money) could whirl down the drain any moment, and the job loss situation is becoming a veritable bloodbath. Even an empty suit could win citing the economic carnage that has already occurred.
> But none of the Democrats, Dean included, are addressing the truly Big Issues facing this nation: how we are going to live in post cheap oil world; how to begin the awful and tremendous process of re-forming (literally) the way we do agriculture, trade, and manufacturing; how we are going to deal with the dysfunction and huge economic losses represented by the futureless infrastructures of suburbia; and how we are going to rebuild communities shattered by corporate venality and the loss of social-and-occupational niches.
> None of the candidates will go near these issues because they’re too scary. The dwellers in suburbia (more than half the public) doesn’t want to hear that their chief investment is a swindle and that their lifestyle choice has no future. The house-builders certainly don’t want to hear that. Nor do the car dealers. (Note, when Eisenhower won the 1952 election, Adlai Stevenson sagely quipped, “The New Dealers have been replaced by the car dealers.”)
> The public doesn’t believe that the cheap oil fiesta is actually coming to an end (they’ve supposedly heard it too many times). The public is utterly complicit in the predicament in which they find themselves. The public wanted the drive-in utopia and the public is stuck with it. And the public has been using the racket of destructive and futureless suburban development as the engine of the economy for more than a decade, and they like it that way – until the moment comes when there are no vocational niches left to occupy and the whole country finds itself up a cul-de-sac in a cement SUV without a fill-up.
> That’s really where we’re at, and the truth would only provoke an extravaganza of finger-pointing and righteousness that would make the Vietnam era look like the golden age. Whoever gets elected or reelected is going to preside over a king-hell clusterfuck of economic destruction and social upheaval. Who knows what it might bring out in a Kerry. Or a Bush.
---
### Author:  [@Stoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoid)
#### Post date: [February 5, 2004, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/108 "2004-02-05T00:51:24Z")
> [@spoke-](#):
>
> I don’t think Dean is the best candidate to face Bush. (I’d prefer Edwards or Clark), but I DO think Dean could do much better than Kerry.
>
> Kerry is a liberal, and a big stiff (_a la_ Gore) to boot. Maybe he will prove me wrong, but I see disaster for the Democrats if (as it now seems will be the case) he is nominated.
Good. Make sure he isn’t. Do what I’m doing: give money AND TIME and voice to Clark. Or even Edwards. (But Clark needs it more, is more electable, and would make a better president.)
---
### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [February 5, 2004, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/109 "2004-02-05T14:22:45Z")
[QUOTE=Stoid]
…give money AND TIME and voice to Clark. Or even Edwards.
[QUOTE]
I’m way ahead of you **Stoid**.
---
### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [February 5, 2004, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/110 "2004-02-05T14:26:58Z")
incidentally, I had dinner with a table full of moderate Republicans yesterday (in Atlanta). Without any prompting from me, they expressed astonishment that Democrats were blowing a good shot at the White House by making Kerry the front-runner for the nomination.
---
### Author:  [@Stoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoid)
#### Post date: [February 6, 2004, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/111 "2004-02-06T03:54:57Z")
Ya know, even though he’s not my first choice, every day brings more evidence that Kerry is very electable, if for no other reason than Bush isn’t.
Today’s tasty tidbits, courtesy of [npr.org](http://npr.org):
1. On the subject of gay marriage, it was said that when the question is framed properly, it emerges that gay marriage falls somewhere around 14 or 15 on most people’s list of concerns. yeah, they care, but it doesn’t make a difference in their lives.
2. On gay marriage, this is something I was independently thinking and they talked about: it was only a few decades ago that interracial marriage was illegal and considered disgusting and unnatural. California was the first state to change this, and the rest of the country gasped in horror. Gay marriage will follow a similar path.
3. Bush can lay claim to a historic first: this year was the first time in history, per the show I was watching, that a President’s approval ratings have gone DOWN the day after the State of the Union. Woo Hoo! Go Bush!
4. In the last week is also the first time that I’ve seen a named Democrat beat Bush in the polls. (An unnamed Democrat has beaten him many times.) The name? Kerry. The percentage? Varying, but as much as 8%. [http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm) (Interestingly, the only poll that fails to find some version of the same result is Fox News. I’m shocked.)
It’s all good.
---
### Author:  [@Weirddave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weirddave)
#### Post date: [February 6, 2004, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/112 "2004-02-06T06:09:43Z")
> [@Stoid](#):
>
> 1. On the subject of gay marriage, it was said that when the question is framed properly, it emerges that gay marriage falls somewhere around 14 or 15 on most people’s list of concerns. yeah, they care, but it doesn’t make a difference in their lives.
“When the question is framed properly”, you can get a majority of people to say that Hitler had some good points. I know, I studied the science of polling as part of my Poli-Sci degree.
> [@Stoid](#):
>
> 1. On gay marriage, this is something I was independently thinking and they talked about: it was only a few decades ago that interracial marriage was illegal and considered disgusting and unnatural. California was the first state to change this, and the rest of the country gasped in horror. Gay marriage will follow a similar path.
I have no doubt that you are absolutely right, 100% correct, and that will be a great day indeed for this Grand Old Republic. The chances of that happening before November are exactly zero.
> [@Stoid](#):
>
> 1. Bush can lay claim to a historic first: this year was the first time in history, per the show I was watching, that a President’s approval ratings have gone DOWN the day after the State of the Union. Woo Hoo! Go Bush!
A couple of points is a meaningless statistical nothing (see above). I don’t know what figures you’re using, but unless it’s more than 5%, I’m not impressed. If you can be objective, you’ll have to admit that you read a lot more into things than there necessarily is, because of how partisan you are.
> [@Stoid](#):
>
> 1. In the last week is also the first time that I’ve seen a named Democrat beat Bush in the polls. (An unnamed Democrat has beaten him many times.) The name? Kerry. The percentage? Varying, but as much as 8%. [WH2004: Full](http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm) (Interestingly, the only poll that fails to find some version of the same result is Fox News. I’m shocked.)
Unless I am mistaken ( and correct me if I’m wrong, please ) Dukakis was out polling Bush Sr. in February, and we all know how that turned out. It’s all meaningless until a) The Dems have a definite candidate and b)The Pubbies start campaigning. Show me some numbers in September and then we can talk.
> [@Stoid](#):
>
> It’s all good.
Indeed, it is, if that’s what you want to see, rose tinted glasses, etc…Otherwise, to quote Rob Lowe; “It’s all St. Elmo’s Fire”.
---
### Author:  [@Weirddave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weirddave)
#### Post date: [February 6, 2004, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/113 "2004-02-06T06:11:40Z")
“outpolling”, not “out polling”. :smack: The later give one a strange mental picture indeed.
---
### Author:  [@Stoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoid)
#### Post date: [February 6, 2004, 8:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/114 "2004-02-06T08:32:18Z")
Well, Dave, I keep hearing how dems are dreaming, no matter what the polls show or people say. I keep hearing directly and indirectly about independents and Republicans that are either planning to vote Democrat or stay home. I keep reading and hearing about how both sides of the aisle are, to one degree or another, appalled by Bush’s fiscal policies.
What exactly is it you think is so unstoppable about Bush? Who are the hoards who are so crazy about him?
---
### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [February 6, 2004, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/115 "2004-02-06T11:18:25Z")
Polls are less than meaningless at this point. Hell, Dukakis had a 13-point advantage over Bush Sr. at one stage. But then the Republican attack machinery cranked up. This year, Bush has over $100M worth of mud to throw. Much of it will stick.
It is not at all unusual for the “out” party to have a polling advantage during their primary and nomination process. During that process, they are getting a lot of publicity, and using it to attack the incumbent. Polls for the challenger generally rise during the primary process, then start dropping after the convention.
**Stoid** , Bush still has a lot of support out there. Understand that you can’t judge by what you hear, because (I gather) you don’t encounter very often the type of folks who are Bush supporters. Some of his support is strong, and some of it is of the “hold your nose and vote Republican” variety. In fact, I’ve heard that phrase a couple of times from conservatives. They may not be crazy about Bush, but they still regard him as better than the alternative. (_Far_ better, if the alternative is Kerry.)
---
### Author:  [@athelas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/athelas)
#### Post date: [February 6, 2004, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/116 "2004-02-06T14:26:40Z")
Don’t forget, also, that you have hordes of Democrats out there working for the various candidates, who can all agree that GB is the Devil’s lieutendant. There _will_ be more noise than usual, and some are not above calling themselves Republicans/independents who have come around to the Demmies.
Re: Kerry’s standing among veterans: [www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnkerry.com/](http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnkerry.com/)
Besides, Bush’s campaign hasn’t even started yet.
---
### Author:  [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)
#### Post date: [February 6, 2004, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/117 "2004-02-06T14:48:56Z")
> [@](#):
>
> “Mr. President, you spoke of the achievements of the War in Iraq. As a man who watched his friends and comrades die in war, who as a man who wrote the letters to the families of men who died under his command, I tell you that the price in treasure and lives paid for the conquest of Iraq is too great a price and is a price that did not have to be paid, and a price that we are not done paying. Because of you policies we are enmeshed in a civil war half way around the world that does not make America safer and indeed exposes us to more danger.”
And the president will answer: “If I recall correctly, you were happy to send troops there, too. If you call me a damned devil, you share the blame. If it was not worth it, you were responsible for killing innocent Americans.”
> [@](#):
>
> 1. Kerry can’t win in the South. As I’ve stated elsewhere, I now predict (without fear of being proven wrong) that if Kerry is the nominee he will not win a single Southern state in the general election. It doesn’t matter who his vice-presidential nominee is. Kerry’s performance in the South will be a repeat of fellow Vietnam vet Al Gore’s. (By the way, does anyone who is from the South disagree with my perception on this? If so, what Southern state do you think he can win?) Can the Democrats win without taking a single Southern state? We may find out this year if Kerry is the nominee.
This won’t help matters. What they hell does this _mean_, anyway?
[http://www.southknoxbubba.net/skblog/archive\_2004\_02.php#2598](http://www.southknoxbubba.net/skblog/archive_2004_02.php#2598)
---
### Author:  [@Weirddave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weirddave)
#### Post date: [February 6, 2004, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/118 "2004-02-06T14:59:45Z")
> [@Stoid](#):
>
> Well, Dave, I keep hearing how dems are dreaming, no matter what the polls show or people say. I keep hearing directly and indirectly about independents and Republicans that are either planning to vote Democrat or stay home. I keep reading and hearing about how both sides of the aisle are, to one degree or another, appalled by Bush’s fiscal policies.
>
> What exactly is it you think is so unstoppable about Bush? Who are the hoards who are so crazy about him?
I don’t think Bush is unstoppable at all, in fact he’s a lot more vulnerable than I would have thought even 6 months ago. What I am saying is: a) I don’t think Kerry is the man to do it. Too many people look at Kerry and think “Same old Ted Kennedy/Mike Dukakis/Massachusetts liberal as always”, no matter what you may think his record shows or his policies are. A vast number of people don’t vote based upon those things, they vote based upon their “feelings” about each candidate. b) We’re right smack dab in the middle of a hotly contested Democratic Primary season which is getting tons of press, I’d be shocked if the Democratic frontrunner (whoever he might be) _wasn’t_ polling well. c) Bush has either 200 or 300 (I’ve seen both figures)million dollars to spend. That’ll pay for a lot of politicing between now and November. Basically Kerry is showing a 6-7 point lead against “Bush sucks” 9 months before the election. That’s awfully thin to my mind, because the conservative electiorial machine is [barely warming up.](http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/17337.htm)
Look, you’re a fanatical leftie. This is certainly an exciting time for you, as the your candidate is “forged in the fire of the primaries”, and defines himself for you and as you come to accept him (especially if he wasn’t your first choice). It’s natural to get swept up in euphoria. All I’m saying is don’t be misled because you’re surrounded by groups of people who think like you do. Everybody you know hates Bush. Fine, but it’s a long way from that to electing someone else, don’t be fooled into believing that the opinions of the true leftie believers reflect a majority of the population.
---
### Author:  [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)
#### Post date: [February 6, 2004, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/119 "2004-02-06T19:31:02Z")
> [@Weirddave](#):
>
> It’s all meaningless until a) The Dems have a definite candidate and b)The Pubbies start campaigning. Show me some numbers in September and then we can talk.
Given the nature of your opinions, it’s a wonder you’re bothering to post on this thread at all, prior to September. Might it be that we are well aware that our opinions are speculative, and that it is in fact FUN and sometimes useful to speculate.
I do agree the that Pubbies are holding off their big guns until they have a single clear nominee to aim at. Good strategy, but I think they are lacking in substantive ammo. This election will come down to whether Americans can recognize genuine pain when they are feeling it, as opposed to the pseudo-pain the Pubbies will manufacture for them to feel. It’ll be informative if nothing else.
---
### Author:  [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)
#### Post date: [February 7, 2004, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032/120 "2004-02-07T21:28:27Z")
[quote]
As I’ve stated elsewhere, I now predict (without fear of being proven wrong) that if Kerry is the nominee he will not win a single Southern state in the general election. It doesn’t matter who his vice-presidential nominee is. Kerry’s performance in the South will be a repeat of fellow Vietnam vet Al Gore’s. (By the way, does anyone who is from the South disagree with my perception on this? If so, what Southern state do you think he can win?)
[quote]
I posted that challenge way back in the OP of this now-lengthy thread, and so far no Southerner has come forward to disagree. Any takers?
For that matter, I don’t believe Kerry can win Ohio, Pennsylvania or Missouri in the general election.
[Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032.md?page=5)
[Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/convince-me-that-john-kerry-is-electable/226032.md?page=7)