# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [February 11, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758 "2020-02-11T01:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 125
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2487 "2020-04-18T01:39:00Z")
> [@galen\_ubal](#): > > Sorry, I was being ‘poetic’. When I said ‘silent carrier’, I meant asymptomatic. That is, someone who has the disease, and can transmit it, but is not showing any symptoms. In short, I intended them to mean the same thing. > Apologies for not being clear, and if I’m mistaken that an asymptomatic person can transmit the disease, I’d appreciate a correction. Asymptomatic simply means has the disease but has no symptoms. It has no bearing on ability to spread. But YES asymptomatic COVID carriers have been proven to have spread the disease. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2488 "2020-04-18T01:49:37Z")
> [@Eva\_Luna](#): > > [Illinois schools to remain closed for the rest of the school year.](https://blockclubchicago.org/2020/04/17/all-illinois-schools-to-stay-closed-through-end-of-school-year-pritzker-to-announce-report/?mc_cid=58200512f7&mc_eid=3097288313&fbclid=IwAR2-d8bqV0gZlDzOkDyF3N45kZ9i22qZzddBRdSzUBSk0s6XwEJ3gL2Vpvg) > > I will be shocked if the Stay at Home order isn’t also extended at least until the middle of May, if not longer. [New Hampshire](https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-educators-develop-plans-for-remote-learning-through-rest-of-year/32192428) is also keeping kids out of the classroom for the remainder of the school year. And yeah, I don’t think the stay-home order that’s set through May 4th is going to expire without extension here, either. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2489 "2020-04-18T01:53:58Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > Do we have any evidence that asymptomatic people shed the virus (are as contagious) as symptomatic people? I would suspect they do not. If so, would that change things? There have been studies that show some asymptomatic carriers shed the virus extensively prior to becoming symptomatic (feeling ill). I believe those studies are linked earlier in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2490 "2020-04-18T01:59:49Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Mainstream media sources are finally coming around on the way-too-coincidental Wuhan lab that studied coronaviruses in bats: [U.S. intel community examining whether coronavirus emerged accidentally from a Chinese lab](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/u-s-intel-community-examining-whether-coronavirus-emerged-accidentally-chinese-n1185371) > > I have thought for weeks that this seemed really fishy, but the media kept supposedly “debunking” it by citing experts who said it was not genetically engineered but came from nature. Which is of course completely beside the point. For whatever definition of ‘finally coming around’ you happen to be pointing to at the moment. CMC fnord! ---
**Author:** ![excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e8c25b/32.png) [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/excavating_for_a_mind)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2491 "2020-04-18T02:09:09Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > :rolleyes: Rolleyes at me all you want. I want you to confirm that the infection rate from asymptomatic people is the same as those who become ill. I don’t think that is the case, and I don’t think the data supports that. I may be wrong. There is nothing bad about being wrong, which is why I ask. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2492 "2020-04-18T02:35:25Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > Rolleyes at me all you want. I want you to confirm that the infection rate from asymptomatic people is the same as those who become ill. I don’t think that is the case, and I don’t think the data supports that. I may be wrong. There is nothing bad about being wrong, which is why I ask. “The same as”? We don’t even know the true mortality rate, let alone true infection rates. Here is a case report of asymptomatic infection, from March 5:[Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468) It is known that around half of the people with detectable C19 are asysmptomatic:[Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Residents of a Long-Term Care Skilled Nursing Facility — King County, Washington, March 2020](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e1.htm), and in my country (Australia), which is attempting full contact tracing, authorities are reporting that about half the cases are traced to asymptomatic carriers (I don’t have a citation for that). It could be that half the cases are from asymptomatic carriers because half the carriers are asymptomatic, or it could be that although asymptomatic carriers are much less dangerous, they are also much less isolated. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2493 "2020-04-18T02:51:25Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > (snip) I want you to confirm that the infection rate from asymptomatic people is the same as those who become ill. I don’t think that is the case, and I don’t think the data supports that. I may be wrong. There is nothing bad about being wrong, which is why I ask. May I ask what difference you think it makes? If people not showing symptoms can spread the disease at any significant rate (and it is clear that they do) the precautions are going to remain necessary until widespread testing and widespread effective inoculations are in place. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2494 "2020-04-18T03:17:13Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > Do we have any evidence that asymptomatic people shed the virus (are as contagious) as symptomatic people? I would suspect they do not. If so, would that change things? Yes it would change what many of the models result in. Assumptions were chosen to use for how many symptomatic carriers there are and how relatively contagious they are for how long to plug into the models. Those numbers were educated guesses but still guesses. Different inputs would have given different results. The best guesses I’ve read to date are that asymptomatic infections are some fraction less contagious than symptomatic infections, but there are enough more of them (more than half), and they are enough more in contact with more others, that they drive the spread much more. From a practical POV the message is that spread is driven more by those who do not know they are sick even though each of them might be individually less risk in the moment of exposure, so some degree of universal precautions is required if slowing down the spread is to be accomplished. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2495 "2020-04-18T03:27:22Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > Do we have any evidence that asymptomatic people shed the virus (are as contagious) as symptomatic people? I would suspect they do not. If so, would that change things? Apparently, it depends on what stage they are in. Of course, if you aren’t coughing like mad, you would be spreading less. Still, they say symptomatic people are certainly contagious. ---
**Author:** ![excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e8c25b/32.png) [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/excavating_for_a_mind)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2496 "2020-04-18T03:27:53Z")
> [@Roderick\_Femm](#): > > May I ask what difference you think it makes? If people not showing symptoms can spread the disease at any significant rate (and it is clear that they do) the precautions are going to remain necessary until widespread testing and widespread effective inoculations are in place. The difference is this. If the asymptomatic are less infectious than those displaying symptoms then after the initial surge in infections, the infection rate will drop. Which is what we are seeing. Now, you may claim that the drop in infection rate is due to “social distancing”, but if the drop is actually a result of those who are highly susceptible either become symptomatic (and spread the infection) or asymptomatic (and spread the infection at a much lower rate), then this will drop off at a very rapid rate once those susceptible have either caught the disease and recovered or have perished. My point is that in the latter case, the entire issue will die off within two or three generations (a generation being apparently about 14 days), which is what we are seeing in most populations. The difference is that ones who impose drastic measures see fewer deaths, while those who do not see a rapid increase in deaths. Regardless, if the asymptomatics spread the disease at a rate less than the symptomatic, then this has a signifiant influence on the models being used to predict infection rates. To assume they spread it at the same rate just doesn’t make sense, to me. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2497 "2020-04-18T03:34:50Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > For whatever definition of ‘finally coming around’ you happen to be pointing to at the moment. > > CMC fnord! Until recently it was treated as a crackpot theory if it was addressed at all. Tonight on the CBS Evening News they had it as close to the top story and as a very strong possibility. ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2498 "2020-04-18T03:40:10Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Until recently it was treated as a crackpot theory if it was addressed at all. Tonight on the CBS Evening News they had it as close to the top story and as a very strong possibility. The article you posted dismisses it as unlikely. If it happened at all, it was accidental and weaponization has been ruled out. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2499 "2020-04-18T03:57:12Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > The difference is this. If the asymptomatic are less infectious than those displaying symptoms then after the initial surge in infections, the infection rate will drop. Which is what we are seeing. Now, you may claim that the drop in infection rate is due to “social distancing”, but if the drop is actually a result of those who are highly susceptible either become symptomatic (and spread the infection) or asymptomatic (and spread the infection at a much lower rate), then this will drop off at a very rapid rate once those susceptible have either caught the disease and recovered or have perished. Even if asymptomatic infections are ten times higher than we know about, that’s still not anywhere near a majority of the vulnerable population. For example, worldometer is currently reporting 710,000 diagnosed cases in the US (and not all of those are symptomatic). If we assume there are “really” 7.1 million, well, there are 49 million Americans over the age of 65, plus plenty more who are younger but have other health conditions rendering them susceptible. Are you attempting to argue that 100+ million Americans have already had COVID-19? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2500 "2020-04-18T04:00:23Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > Rolleyes at me all you want. I want you to confirm that the infection rate from asymptomatic people is the same as those who become ill. I don’t think that is the case, and I don’t think the data supports that. I may be wrong. There is nothing bad about being wrong, which is why I ask. :rolleyes: I want YOU to buy me a pony. Thanks for sharing your uninformed opinion, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2501 "2020-04-18T04:04:08Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Until recently it was treated as a crackpot theory if it was addressed at all. Tonight on the CBS Evening News they had it as close to the top story and as **a very strong possibility.** My bolding. This is [the report](https://www.cbsnews.com/video/us-explores-theory-virus-spread-started-in-chinese-lab/) (video) from CBS News and no, they do not say what you claim they say. The report simply states that US is investigating other possibilities than the wet market. It also states that there is no evidence implicated the Wuhan lab. It absolutely nothing about how possible that scenario is. I don’t know how that got from there to being “a strong possibility” but that was not in the report. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2502 "2020-04-18T04:06:03Z")
2,250,790 total cases 154,266 dead 571,145 recovered In the US: 710,021 total cases 37,158 dead 60,510 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > In keeping with the CDC’s nomenclature: > > 2,182,823 total cases > 145,551 dead > 547,589 recovered > > In the US: > > 678,144 total cases > 34,641 dead > 57,754 recovered ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2503 "2020-04-18T11:15:20Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > Rolleyes at me all you want. I want you to confirm that the infection rate from asymptomatic people is the same as those who become ill. I don’t think that is the case, and I don’t think the data supports that. I may be wrong. There is nothing bad about being wrong, which is why I ask. The problem is when you keep asking and keep asking and keep asking. Yes. Asymptomatic people with covid-19 are contagious. They are contagious whether or not they later go to develop symptoms or never show symptoms. This is not the only disease with that feature. People infected with measles also spread it before they actually get sick, that’s one reason measles is so contagious. This fact - asymptomatic covid-19 cases are contagious - has been known for _months_. [Here is a link to a study from February](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028). If it makes you feel better not to believe it, well, I guess we can’t do anything about that. Other posters have provided you with this information, there are links provided and you have been told where to find them. It’s up to you to look at the information, we can’t do that for you. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2504 "2020-04-18T11:24:39Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > The difference is this. If the asymptomatic are less infectious than those displaying symptoms then after the initial surge in infections, the infection rate will drop. Only if the RO is less than one. If the RO of the asymptomatic is greater than 1 the virus will continue to spread and the outbreak will continue to increase. Because we _don’t know for sure_ the RO of the asymptomatic - heck, we aren’t even too sure about it for people who do show symptoms - then we can’t be sure how much distancing is required. Can we do with less? Do we need more? _We don’t know_ - and guessing wrong will kill more people than would die otherwise. > [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > TMy point is that in the latter case, the entire issue will die off within two or three generations (a generation being apparently about 14 days), which is what we are seeing in most populations. The difference is that ones who impose drastic measures see fewer deaths, while those who do not see a rapid increase in deaths. And… I’m not sure what you’re arguing here. Isn’t preventing suffering and death generally a good thing? > [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > TRegardless, if the asymptomatics spread the disease at a rate less than the symptomatic, then this has a signifiant influence on the models being used to predict infection rates. To assume they spread it at the same rate just doesn’t make sense, to me. The virus doesn’t care if it “makes sense” to you or not. The facts don’t care if they “makes sense” to you or not. Maybe the words “we don’t know” are like fingernails on a blackboard for you, but I’d rather decisions be made based on science, medicine and facts than what “makes sense” to you, or to me. Life doesn’t always make obvious sense. “The Sun goes around the Earth” used to “make sense” to most people. Now most people know it’s the other way around. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2505 "2020-04-18T11:51:48Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Mainstream media sources are finally coming around on the way-too-coincidental Wuhan lab that studied coronaviruses in bats: [U.S. intel community examining whether coronavirus emerged accidentally from a Chinese lab](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/u-s-intel-community-examining-whether-coronavirus-emerged-accidentally-chinese-n1185371) > > I have thought for weeks that this seemed really fishy, but the media kept supposedly “debunking” it by citing experts who said it was not genetically engineered but came from nature. Which is of course completely beside the point. > [@TokyoBayer](#): > > My bolding. > > This is [the report](https://www.cbsnews.com/video/us-explores-theory-virus-spread-started-in-chinese-lab/) (video) from CBS News and no, they do not say what you claim they say. > > The report simply states that US is investigating other possibilities than the wet market. It also states that there is no evidence implicated the Wuhan lab. It absolutely nothing about how possible that scenario is. > > I don’t know how that got from there to being “a strong possibility” but that was not in the report. No one knows for sure whether the virus was accidentally released from the lab or picked up from some animal in the wet market or whether it first infected some child who was playing the bat caves. What we do know for sure is that it is a natural virus, not something engineered by humans. The virus has been sequenced by dozens (probably hundreds) of labs around the world. If you poke around the internet you can find graphics of all the variants that had been documents as of date X. Here are two [![](https://i0.wp.com/emcrit.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/covid88evo.jpg?resize=1536%2C1218&ssl=1) ](https://i0.wp.com/emcrit.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/covid88evo.jpg?resize=1536%2C1218&ssl=1) [https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global](https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global) And with our current state of the art genetic engineering, human-altered genomes leave telltale signs. And covid-19 doesn’t have any of those tells. And any of those many many labs, mostly outside of China, would be able to judge that. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2506 "2020-04-18T12:29:26Z")
If it wasn’t engineered by humans, then how was it in the lab? Seriously, that’s a CT and should not be graced with the light of day. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=124) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=126)