# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [February 11, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758 "2020-02-11T01:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 131
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2607 "2020-04-22T01:01:45Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Robert Redfield is an asshole and a fucking idiot. From the link (bolding mine):It’s not over, fuckface. It’s NOT OVER. We’re still right in the middle of it! This push to pretend that this is over is really pissing me off.Aye; they prolly do BECAUSE IT ISN’T OVER YET. Way to not get what he was talking about. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2608 "2020-04-22T01:09:13Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Robert Redfield is an asshole and a fucking idiot. What DrDeth said. You actually made my point – so much of the discussion is about personality, the past, and borderline judgments on how long to lock down. Meanwhile, Obama’s CDC chief is saying pretty much the same as Trump’s does when DJT isn’t around: [Former CDC director says coronavirus contact tracing will need 300,000 workers](https://news.yahoo.com/former-cdc-director-says-coronavirus-140000179.html) ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2609 "2020-04-22T01:36:13Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > **[CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus this winter will likely be worse](https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/cdc-director-warns-second-wave-of-coronavirus-this-winter-will-likely-be-worse/)** > > > [@](#): > > > > Having two simultaneous respiratory outbreaks would put unimaginable strain on the health-care system, he said. Gosh, perhaps if more than 40% of Americans bothered to get their flu shot this fall we might have an easier time of things. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2610 "2020-04-22T02:24:48Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Way to not get what he was talking about. :rolleyes: Oh, I fully understand his point of overloading the health care system even more than we are right now come winter but _my_ point is that the current situation is still on-going. By using language like he did, he makes himself look like a fucking idiot because, as I just said, the situation is still on-going. We _haven’t_ finished the first wave yet and talking as tho we have is not helpful at all IMO. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2611 "2020-04-22T03:12:00Z")
I am unable to understand so many numbers. I have latched onto tracking only the number of Americans dead from this disease each day. [I a mkeeping a tally.](https://old.reddit.com/r/lists/comments/fo0010/us_corona_deaths_daybyday/) This is simple enough for me to grasp. Yesterday 2,804 Americans died. That is a shocking number. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2612 "2020-04-22T04:08:20Z")
2,557,503 total cases 177,661 dead 690,672 recovered In the US: 819,164 total cases 45,340 dead 82,973 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 2,481,866 total cases > 170,455 dead > 651,542 recovered > > In the US: > > 792,913 total cases > 42,517 dead > 72,389 recovered ---
**Author:** ![psychobunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@psychobunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychobunny)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2613 "2020-04-22T04:22:56Z")
Remember when we passed a million cases worldwide? Remember how terrible that seemed? Yeah, that was about three weeks ago. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2614 "2020-04-22T04:54:31Z")
> **[WHO says coronavirus came from an animal and was not made in a lab](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/21/coronavirus-who-says-evidence-shows-covid-19-not-made-lab/2995236001/)** > > The Trump administration is probing whether coronavirus originated in a lab. The WHO says it came from an animal. > [@](#): > > One suggestion that the virus could be man-made and linked to a Chinese biowarfare program has been widely dismissed by scientists. Under a second scenario, the virus was naturally occurring – from a bat, say – but accidentally escaped the research facility because of poor safety protocols. > Both notions are based on circumstantial evidence such as the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s history of studying coronaviruses in bats, the lab’s proximity to where some of the infections were first diagnosed and China’s lax safety record in its labs. Although the headline says the virus “came from an animal and was not made in a lab”, that conclusion (which I accept, FTR) has no bearing on the “second scenario”. The USA Today article offers no reason to believe that second scenario is not true, but the headline strikes me as purposely misleading. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2615 "2020-04-22T05:31:01Z")
> [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](#): > > Yesterday 2,804 Americans died. That is a shocking number. Going by the statistics **Snowboard Bo** posted, the count is 2,823. I’ve said it before and I guess I’ll keep syaing it: “Cry, the Beloved Country”. This cannot go on like this much longer. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2616 "2020-04-22T05:47:53Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > This is a very somber fact. Especially since many of the most seriously ill who do recover will suffer life-long damage to lungs (or other organs including liver or heart). > > What is the comparable figure when ventilators are used in the treatment of other ailments? (I’m not blaming the ventilators, just trying to grasp the level of desperation to use ventilators at all.) Did a quick search. Based on [one doctor on quora](https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-chances-of-survival-after-being-put-on-a-ventilator?share=1#), rates of survival on ventilators for non-covid patients are better, but of course it depends on the underlying problem. Even the rates of survival for covid patients varies a lot. The 80% rate that Cuomo gave looks pretty bad but isn’t so far off a study the guy in the quora answer gave which was 70% for covid patients. > [@](#): > > With Covid-19 cases, the only specific data I’ve found is that survival rates for patients requiring mechanical ventilation is around 65%, decreasing to about 50% in the elderly. I don’t know the source of that data, though, so it’s not really useful for all the reasons listed earlier. [More recent reports from other places range as low as 30% survival. With such a wide range it’s obvious that any prediction for a specific patient is meaningless. Another [retired doctor blogger](https://www.physiciansweekly.com/mortality-rate-of-covid-19-patients-on-ventilators/) published 3 weeks ago which is like a lifetime in this process. > [@](#): > > Probably the best published information we have so far is from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center (ICNARC) in the UK. Of 165 patients admitted to ICUs, 79 (48%) died. Of the 98 patients who received advanced respiratory support—defined as invasive ventilation, BPAP or CPAP via endotracheal tube, or tracheostomy, or extracorporeal respiratory support—66% died. > > Compare that to the 36% mortality rate of non-COVID patients receiving advanced respiratory support reported to ICNARC from 2017 to 2019. But similar stats. 66% covid patients died. 36% non-covid patients die on average. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2617 "2020-04-22T07:12:41Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > So, according to [Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/), New York [State] has now passed 1000 deaths per million residents, which is of course 1 death per 1000 residents. [According to this source](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html) “excess” deaths in New York City during Mar. 11 - Apr. 18 were 17,200 compared with 13,240 deaths attributed to Covid-19. If we assume these unaccounted excess deaths were due to the virus and extrapolate the City’s rate to the State, we see 1300 deaths per million, not just 1000. I don’t see focus on a particular statistic which seems especially frightening. Looking at the U.S. numbers from **Dr. Drake** ’s link, we see 819.2k total cases, 45.3k deaths, 83.0k recoveries. _ **In 35% of “cases which had an outcome,” the outcome was death.** _ This leaves 691,000 cases which supposedly have not yet had an outcome. So what’s with the 691,000 “no-outcome” cases? Are these mostly mild cases which recovered at home but weren’t accounted for? How many people are hospitalized in the U.S. with Covid-19 right now? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2618 "2020-04-22T09:07:49Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > This cannot go on like this much longer. Unfortunately, it sure can. And probably will until this nation has a nationwide, science-based plan for controlling this epidemic. And that won’t happen until…[sentence falls of the edge of the forum] ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 10:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2619 "2020-04-22T10:20:04Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Unfortunately, it sure can. And probably will until this nation has a nationwide, science-based plan for controlling this epidemic. And that won’t happen until…[sentence falls of the edge of the forum] Yeah. What I was insinuating is that the fools continuing to screw things up will get us all killed sooner than later. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2620 "2020-04-22T10:43:29Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > So what’s with the 691,000 “no-outcome” cases? Are these mostly mild cases which recovered at home but weren’t accounted for? Quite a few of them are probably people who are still sick. They have “no-outcome” because they’re still on-going. Remember, even people with “mild” cases (meaning only “not bad enough to require a stay in the hospital”) can be sick with this for 2 weeks or more. ---
**Author:** ![Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/half_man_half_wit/32/21766_2.png) [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Half_Man_Half_Wit)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2621 "2020-04-22T10:51:24Z")
I don’t know if this has been posted already, but this [New York Times story](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html) makes the impact of coronavirus chillingly vivid, by presenting graphs of excess mortality over historical averages for several different countries—also making the case that there is a substantial amount of unaccounted for deaths that aren’t included in the official coronavirus fatality rates. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2622 "2020-04-22T10:56:03Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Robert Redfield is an asshole and a fucking idiot. From the link (bolding mine):It’s not over, fuckface. It’s NOT OVER. We’re still right in the middle of it! This push to pretend that this is over is really pissing me off.Aye; they prolly do BECAUSE IT ISN’T OVER YET. Why the bad language? Do you think it makes your message stronger or more clear? Do you think people read the word “fuckface” and automatically assume your a genius? ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2623 "2020-04-22T10:57:12Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > [According to this source](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html) “excess” deaths in New York City during Mar. 11 - Apr. 18 were 17,200 compared with 13,240 deaths attributed to Covid-19. If we assume these unaccounted excess deaths were due to the virus and extrapolate the City’s rate to the State, we see 1300 deaths per million, not just 1000. > > I don’t see focus on a particular statistic which seems especially frightening. Looking at the U.S. numbers from **Dr. Drake** ’s link, we see 819.2k total cases, 45.3k deaths, 83.0k recoveries. _ **In 35% of “cases which had an outcome,” the outcome was death.** _ This leaves 691,000 cases which supposedly have not yet had an outcome. > > So what’s with the 691,000 “no-outcome” cases? Are these mostly mild cases which recovered at home but weren’t accounted for? How many people are hospitalized in the U.S. with Covid-19 right now? Any insight into how NYC is now? Are fewer people taking public transport? Are more staying home? Are their people leaving the city? ---
**Author:** ![Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/half_man_half_wit/32/21766_2.png) [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Half_Man_Half_Wit)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2624 "2020-04-22T11:00:36Z")
> [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](#): > > I don’t know if this has been posted already, but this [New York Times story](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html) makes the impact of coronavirus chillingly vivid, by presenting graphs of excess mortality over historical averages for several different countries—also making the case that there is a substantial amount of unaccounted for deaths that aren’t included in the official coronavirus fatality rates. And just now I see **septimus** already posted a link to this like three posts above mine. Sorry! ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2625 "2020-04-22T11:33:10Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > Why the bad language? Do you think it makes your message stronger or more clear? Do you think people read the word “fuckface” and automatically assume your a genius? Assume that his a genius what? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2020, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/2626 "2020-04-22T12:24:20Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > [According to this source](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html) “excess” deaths in New York City during Mar. 11 - Apr. 18 were 17,200 compared with 13,240 deaths attributed to Covid-19. If we assume these unaccounted excess deaths were due to the virus and extrapolate the City’s rate to the State, we see 1300 deaths per million, not just 1000. [Josh Marshall](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-deadly-is-covid19-nyc-sets-a-lower-bound): > [@](#): > > As of two days ago New York City reports 13,683 COVID19 deaths. 9,101 of those are lab confirmed and 4,582 are diagnosed on the basis of symptoms but with no lab confirmed test. The City has a population of 8,398,748 million, as of the 2018 Census estimate. So as of now, .16% of New York’s population has died from COVID19. Josh says some had been arguing for a true COVID-19 death rate of as low as 0.1% of those infected; this is now impossible even if we make the assumption that every NYC resident would test positive for the virus. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=130) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=132)