# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [February 11, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758 "2020-02-11T01:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 193
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3855 "2020-07-18T04:24:22Z")
Based on current trajectories, I estimate it will be about another two weeks till Mexico also surpasses the UK. At which point the top three death toll countries will all be in the Americas (US/Brazil/Mexico) ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3856 "2020-07-18T13:38:24Z")
As for comparing countries, I’ve been watching the deaths per million and how countries have been moving up and down the top ten list. Poor **Belgium** has held the top spot for a long time. I’m not sure what happened to them. The **UK** , led by Boris “I’m still shaking hands” Johnson, had been steadily moving up the list to secure a number 2 spot, but they seem to mostly have a handle on the situation. Then comes **Spain** , who had a disastrous first spike where the 7 day moving average hit 866 deaths at the peak, which is equivalent to 6000 U.S. deaths. And cases seem to be rising again. **Italy** has been sliding down slowly. Being one of the first to be hit, they have a good excuse. **Sweden** has been rocketing up the charts like a bad Taylor Swift song to take the number five spot. Their ascent has been slowing, but I think they will overtake Italy soon. Then comes **France** , another hard hit European nation that seems to have things under control now. I was surprised this morning to see **Chile** had bumped USA out of the number 7 position. South America is getting hit pretty hard right now. Then comes good ole **USA** who seems determined to win this battle at all costs. Skyrocketing case numbers and rising deaths means they will surely secure one of the top spots. Congratulations America. **Peru** is next representing another South American country I hadn’t taken much notice of. Rounding out the top ten is **Brazil**. We all know about them and we all know they’ll be moving up in ranks, too. Note: I didn’t include smaller nations with fewer than 100 deaths. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3857 "2020-07-18T17:27:16Z")
Rural areas are starting to feel some strain: > **['We really need help': Coronavirus overwhelms rural Oregon](https://apnews.com/9c168598988f6e3a4cf529ba7da62ec2)** > > SALEM, Ore. (AP) — Heather Griggs presses a phone to her ear in a makeshift office in the small brick courthouse that once served as a jail in rural Pendleton, a place best known for its annual rodeo... ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3858 "2020-07-18T20:06:14Z")
Florida says it is experience a shortage of remdesivir: > **[Florida hospitals seek more virus medication as cases rise](https://apnews.com/c3f706a0c49f3e63ca1dfe203a6dbbc5)** > > FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Florida hospitals said Saturday that they are in desperate need of a “life-saving” antiviral to help treat the coronavirus patients rapidly filling their beds as cases... ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3859 "2020-07-18T20:14:37Z")
That is bad news indeed, it is also bad news for anywhere else that suffers a huge surge in cases since it means remdesivir is going to be in short supply. It also means that the outlook for other nations especially in Mexico, and South America is bleak indeed because US will surely be in a position to ensure it is prioritised at their expense. It may well be very bad for US international relations as a result ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3860 "2020-07-18T22:42:20Z")
More bad news… > **[85 children under age 2 tested positive for coronavirus in 1 Texas county, as...](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/85-infants-have-tested-positive-coronavirus-1-texas-county-u-n1234293?fbclid=IwAR1XkJLHXczboaT9-cFr9nolf6bXGU3WQl-F9vPd6PFc9Kb65WbhfCmT9yQ)** > > The Nueces County health director said 85 children under age 2 have tested positive, including 52 under 1 year old. "These babies have not even had their first birthdays yet," she said. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3861 "2020-07-18T23:07:49Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Florida says it is experience a shortage of remdesivir Yes. I used to teach nursing students in the Miami area. My ex-students have been saying they were running out of meds a week or two ago. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2020, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3862 "2020-07-18T23:11:57Z")
> [@](#): > > The closing came while the agency was at its highest activation level as a response to the coronavirus. It’s also in the middle of hurricane season in a year when there have already been six named storms that have formed in the Atlantic. No storms were active over the weekend. > **[Florida emergency operations center hit with COVID-19](https://apnews.com/64e1d87c22f25a2de8d282c987c61e51)** > > TALLAHASSEE, Fla (AP) — The Florida Division of Emergency Management closed down part of its facilities after 12 employees tested positive for coronavirus. The areas where the employees work were going through a deep clean over the weekend and were... ---
**Author:** ![blondebear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blondebear/32/1022_2.png) [@blondebear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blondebear)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2020, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3863 "2020-07-19T01:18:51Z")
> **[Fauci: Young People “Are Propagating a Pandemic” by “Not Caring” if They Get...](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/07/fauci-young-people-propagating-pandemic-coronavirus.html)** > > Anthony Fauci stands by his earlier warning that the number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States may reach 100,000. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, says the data is clear that it is “young people” who are “driving this new surge” of coronavirus infections. “…what I think is happening is that, understandably, innocently, but not correctly, the younger individuals are saying, well, if I get infected, so the chances of it is that I won’t even have any symptoms, so who cares? That’s a big mistake.”\* ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2020, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3864 "2020-07-19T04:08:59Z")
14,425,865 total cases 604,917 dead 8,612,192 recovered In the US: 3,833,271 total cases 142,877 dead 1,775,219 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 14,194,139 total cases > 599,416 dead > 8,470,275 recovered > > In the US: > > 3,770,012 total cases > 142,064 dead > 1,741,233 recovered The US count looks off to me and sure enough there are no numbers for today for Louisiana, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands or the military. Also, Texas supposedly had about a 50% reduction in new cases from yesterday. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2020, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3865 "2020-07-19T13:52:54Z")
> Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, says the data is clear that it is “young people” who are “driving this new surge” of coronavirus infections. “…what I think is happening is that, understandably, innocently, but not correctly, the younger individuals are saying, well, if I get infected, so the chances of it is that I won’t even have any symptoms, so who cares? That’s a big mistake.”\* Except: there’s [actual research](https://www.nber.org/papers/w27494.pdf) on this, and it doesn’t support what Fauci thinks. While both younger and older people are aware that the risk of dying or being hospitalized with Covid-19 increases with age, young people tend to _overestimate_ the risks (both for everyone, and for them personally), while old people tend to underestimate them. Specifically, young people tend to think that “people like them” have roughly a 2% risk of dying if they contract the disease (in reality it is much lower), while the 70-and-older age cohort think “people like them” have a 1% risk (in reality it is much higher). Young people also think they have a much higher chance of contracting the disease in the first place, and of being hospitalized if they do. It’s one study and there are some limitations (for example, they deliberately excluded people whose math skills are so bad that they can’t tell that 2 in 100 = 20 in 1000, which might be a pretty big chunk of the population!), but it doesn’t support the “young people don’t care whether they get infected because they don’t believe they can get very sick” narrative. I would guess that a much bigger factor is that young people are more likely to have jobs they can’t do from home, and, possibly, to be living with several unrelated adult roommates rather than in a single family unit that can isolate more easily. ---
**Author:** ![Morgyn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morgyn/32/3041_2.png) [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2020, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3866 "2020-07-19T14:34:18Z")
Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University predicts that daily cases [may be at 800,000 per day already, will hit 1,000,000, and that deaths may hit 800,000 by the end of the year.](https://www.thedailybeast.com/america-is-on-track-for-a-million-coronavirus-cases-a-day-and-at-least-800000-deaths-by-the-end-of-2020) Note that the current infection rate being reported in the news, and used by Dr. Fauci, is for _confirmed_ cases only. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2020, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3867 "2020-07-19T15:25:57Z")
> [@article linked by Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > the 70-and-older age cohort think “people like them” have a 1% risk (in reality it is much higher) That theory cannot be proven. (At least, not without far, far more than what we have now.) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2020, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3868 "2020-07-19T18:30:09Z")
> **[The Latest: Pope reassures those struggling with virus](https://apnews.com/article/united-nations-pope-francis-health-ap-top-news-virus-outbreak-5803f642b291ee4b8697d1f9ce55fadd)** > > VATICAN CITY — Pope Francis is assuring his closeness to all those grappling with COVID-19 and its “economic and social consequences.” > [@](#): > > South Carolina has set another record for newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases in a single day. > > Sunday saw 2,335 people newly diagnosed with COVID-19, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control reported. > > South Carolina has reported 2,000 new cases three times since the virus was first detected in the state in March. All have been in the past eight days. The state has spent much of the past month in the top four in the nation for new COVID-19 cases when adjusted by population. > > Health officials also reported 19 new deaths Sunday, bringing the death toll to 1,138 people. > > But one key statistic has been missing from the public over the weekend. Health officials said they are unable to release how many people are hospitalized with COVID-19 because the state is following a federal request to change how it reports hospitalizations. > > South Carolina reported a daily record 1,593 people in the hospital with the virus Friday, the last day figures were available. “Unable to release” bothers me. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2020, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3869 "2020-07-20T04:12:27Z")
14,644,360 total cases 608,911 dead 8,735,298 recovered In the US: 3,898,550 total cases 143,289 dead 1,802,338 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 14,425,865 total cases > 604,917 dead > 8,612,192 recovered > > In the US: > > 3,833,271 total cases > 142,877 dead > 1,775,219 recovered By Tuesday there will be over 4,000,000 total cases in the US. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2020, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3870 "2020-07-20T13:24:12Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > By Tuesday there will be over 4,000,000 total cases in the US. You mean, over 4M confirmed, tested cases. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2020, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3871 "2020-07-20T15:30:37Z")
Thank you for your helpful and insightful post. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2020, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3872 "2020-07-20T15:38:09Z")
What are the current best estimates for actual number of infections in the US (not just confirmed infections)? ---
**Author:** ![Banksiaman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banksiaman/32/3334_2.png) [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2020, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3873 "2020-07-20T22:21:55Z")
I only watched snippets of the Trump interview on the weekend, where he was challenged on how the US rated on Covid cases. Can anyone tell me what the chart that was brought out was measuring? ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2020, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3874 "2020-07-20T23:04:51Z")
My money’s on “tomorrow’s breakfast menu” Seriously, I think it was just a random piece of paper - he didn’t even make much of a pretence of reading it before vaguely waving it around with a “yeah, it says we’re the best”. He certainly wasn’t going to let anyone else have it to see (but yes, a photo of the page would be priceless) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=192) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=194)