# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [February 11, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758 "2020-02-11T01:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 195
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3895 "2020-07-22T18:11:33Z")
That’s an April update which does not seem to address the current situation. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3896 "2020-07-22T18:14:20Z")
Oregon governor announcing new restrictions statewide: Indoor venue cap-100 Outdoor venue cap-250 Masks for everyone 5 years and older Restaurants and bars must close by 10pm Masks on in gyms Quarantines from hotspot states ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3897 "2020-07-22T18:17:45Z")
> [@Trom](#): > > What are the current best estimates for actual number of infections in the US (not just confirmed infections)? > [@DSeid](#): > > Last estimate from the CDC, based on serology studies, was ten times higher. When evaluated. T-cell studies demonstrating past infections with negative serology suggest the number could be twice again. > [@DSeid](#): > > It is now clear that some significant number have had infections without having antibody positivity, at least by the point of being tested, such that serology based estimations could dramatically underestimate the number that have been infected, maybe by half. To expand on this, there’s a good short article here: [https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/15/new-data-on-t-cells-and-the-coronavirus](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/15/new-data-on-t-cells-and-the-coronavirus) So there are two things going on here (all based on early limited data). (1) For people who have contracted the disease, cell-mediated adaptive immunity may be more significant and more persistent than humoral (antibody-mediated) adaptive immunity. Only the latter is detected by serology tests. This implies that serology-based infection counts may be too low; and that convalescent patients with declining antibody titer may nevertheless retain cell-mediated immunity to reinfection. (2) Although there is no antibody cross-reactivity (prior exposure to other coronaviruses does not give you antibodies against SARS CoV-2), there appears to be T-cell receptor cross-reactivity. A significant proportion of the uninfected population may have cell-mediated immunity to SARS CoV-2 through prior exposure to other coronaviruses. Given the way cell-mediated immunity works, this is something that may depend not only on prior exposure, but on genetics (MHC haplotype). There’s more here, although the article is a bit breathless and is not helpful in explaining how cell-mediated immunity works: > **[The people with hidden immunity against Covid-19](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19)** > > While the latest research suggests that antibodies against Covid-19 could be lost in just three months, a new hope has appeared on the horizon: the enigmatic T cell. ---
**Author:** ![Skypist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skypist/32/169_2.png) [@Skypist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skypist)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3898 "2020-07-22T18:22:56Z")
Also doesn’t it seem to be a discussion of how the CDC decides what counts as a COVID death, not so much the availability of the data? I’m just really confused about where various websites are getting the information at all now that trump is hiding it, not how cases and deaths are determined specifically. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3899 "2020-07-22T18:29:41Z")
> [@Trom](#): > > Very interesting. 80,000,000 already infected would be ~27% of the US population. In the context of [this article](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/) that would seem to be encouraging news. I’m quoting and re-posting this article that Trom posted to highlight it because it’s well worth reading. Since things seem to be completely out of control in the U.S., we are probably a _de facto_ experiment in the path to herd immunity, so this is very relevant. > **[A New Understanding of Herd Immunity](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/)** > > The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it. One of the most significant points is that if we’re not all equally susceptible to infection, transmission rates will start dropping off well before crude models of herd immunity would predict, because those most easily infected will be infected in the early stages. In the context of the data that are coming out about cell-mediated immunity, that could very significant, it may mean that herd immunity is achieved with much lower numbers having been infected. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3900 "2020-07-22T18:43:40Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > One of the most significant points is that if we’re not all equally susceptible to infection, transmission rates will start dropping off well before crude models of herd immunity would predict, because those most easily infected will be infected in the early stages. In the context of the data that are coming out about cell-mediated immunity, that could very significant, it may mean that herd immunity is achieved with much lower numbers having been infected. And it would go a long way toward making sense of what is presently going on in the Northeast. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3901 "2020-07-22T18:47:35Z")
Should note I used the wrong denominator - there are closer to 330mm people in the US not 300mm. So 80mm infected would be ~24% not 27%. Still interesting as it’s in the range that could be meaningful according to the scientists in the Atlantic article. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3902 "2020-07-22T18:56:50Z")
Given that it’s out of control in the U.S., it seems to me that any evidence that far more people have already been infected is unequivocally good news\*. It means that more people are completely asymptomatic, that the infection fatality rate is lower, and that we are that much closer to herd immunity, which seems like the only conceivable endpoint now. \*I supposed the only caveat would be if were very close to a vaccine, but even with the recent positive news on that it sounds like it’s ~6 months away. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3903 "2020-07-22T19:38:07Z")
Thank you for your insightful and helpful post. That’s the two pages on the site that describe how they collect data. Yes, the second link was an update on how data from the US is collected and the terminology used. ---
**Author:** ![teelabrown](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/teelabrown/32/8412_2.png) [@teelabrown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/teelabrown)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3904 "2020-07-22T19:49:25Z")
Re: Oregon governor announcing new restrictions. Does Oregon consider California a hotspot state? ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3905 "2020-07-22T19:50:19Z")
No need to be sensitive about it. The question asked was how Worldometers was handling the recent change in reporting where Trump ordered hospitals to bypass the CDC. Your link did nothing to answer that question. If you don’t know the answer, it’s fine to just leave it rather than post a non-pertinent link. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3906 "2020-07-22T19:51:51Z")
? There’s no sensitivity here; that’s just the only information available is my point. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3907 "2020-07-22T20:43:04Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Thank you for your insightful and helpful post. Is that meant to be sarcastic? > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > That’s the two pages on the site that describe how they collect data. Yes, the second link was an update on how data from the US is collected and the terminology used True. But I don’t see anything there that addresses the question of how they’re now getting USA info considering that Trump is now preventing the CDC from getting it. ---
**Author:** ![Courk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/91b2a8/32.png) [@Courk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Courk)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3908 "2020-07-22T20:57:04Z")
When viewing the US by state, most (all?) states have sources listed. For the two I clicked on (Ohio and New Hampshire), it looks like the state covid websites are a source. ---
**Author:** ![Skypist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skypist/32/169_2.png) [@Skypist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skypist)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3909 "2020-07-22T21:04:22Z")
I wondered if this might be so. Then it’s a question of how honest the states are being about it. Some more likely than others _ahem_ to want to fudge the data. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3910 "2020-07-22T22:20:16Z")
I’m sure someone could just gather up all of the data from local newspapers to check. Oh, wait… ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2020, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3911 "2020-07-22T23:07:00Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Restaurants and bars must close by 10pm Oregon is NOT fooling around! ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2020, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3912 "2020-07-23T00:52:31Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > True. But I don’t see anything there that addresses the question of how they’re now getting USA info considering that Trump is now preventing the CDC from getting it. Tangent: I don’t know how Worldometer is getting data now that the CDC is not publishing that data in the Hospital Safety system. But my understanding is that COVID-19 is still a notifiable disease, so apart from having access to the TeleTrack data, CDC is still getting other COVID-19 data. Hospitals and Labs have to do lots of reporting – the NHSN was (and is) only part of it. The CDC is still “getting” data. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2020, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3913 "2020-07-23T03:48:12Z")
Careful using the H-word round here!! 😀 Thing is (besides the big unknowns of how much and how lasting of protection from symptoms and from being infectious any of these proxies imply and the excellent points of the Atlantic article) that the numbers of those infected are very unevenly distributed. Maybe NYC is at herd immunity, but most of rural America? Meanwhile that ten times based on serologies alone is actually NOT exactly what the CDC currently states, per [their COVID interactive dashboard](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-labs-interactive-serology-dashboard.html). At least 12X for NYC, 16X for Louisiana, but only 6X for Connecticut … ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [July 23, 2020, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/3914 "2020-07-23T04:05:10Z")
15,374,482 total cases 630,214 dead 9,349,375 recovered In the US: 4,100,875 total cases 146,183 dead 1,942,637 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 15,096,315 total cases > 619,520 dead > 9,113,043 recovered > > In the US: > > 4,028,569 total cases > 144,953 dead > 1,886,583 recovered The world will have more than 16,000,000 total cases by the end of this week. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=194) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=196)