# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [February 11, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758 "2020-02-11T01:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 220
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4400 "2020-08-27T05:46:59Z")
Really? What about p-values and confidence intervals? Hell, I thought it was the whole _foundation_ of the thing! ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4401 "2020-08-27T05:52:40Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > If we are at 5 million rest assured we are really at 50,000,000 and most likely the super spreaders and active spreaders have mostly been infected already. It looks like by the 1st of the year we should be able to get back to some semblance of normalcy as long as we are ok with assuming some risk > [@nelliebly](#): > > So somehow _all_ the super-spreaders were in your estimated 50,000,000 people who’ve had the virus? None of the remaining 280,000,000–82% of the US population–are super-spreaders, eh? > > Yeah, not convinced. What _is_ likely to be true is that high variance in susceptibility to infection means transmission rates will start to drop off, since more susceptible people tend to be infected early. Are super-spreaders likely themselves to be more susceptible to infection, and therefore to be overrepresented in that first 50 million? I don’t think we know that. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4402 "2020-08-27T06:08:09Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > When you understand the science, you understand how it ultimately hurts businesses to reopen too soon. Governors should be able to convince businesses that that’s true. There’s no compromise here. I strongly disagree with you. Most of the public has a more than healthy fear of this virus. we also know that the general public is not at great risk from this virus. People and families are a ware of risk factors and are better able to isolate and protect the vulnerable. The public has been sorely ill advised or not advised as to how to identify and protect the vulnerable. That is the key to making this virus manageable. We need to open up, brace ourselves for a good hit and then life should be able to get back to normal pretty quick. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4403 "2020-08-27T09:07:04Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > {…} That is the key to making this virus manageable. We need to open up, brace ourselves for a good hit and then life should be able to get back to normal pretty quick. The large piles of corpses are just a unfortunate side effect of this plan. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4404 "2020-08-27T12:30:54Z")
“We” have to brace for “them” to die. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4405 "2020-08-27T12:33:18Z")
Well, before they die we will drain them of their precious bodily fluids, namely their plasma, then they can die. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4406 "2020-08-27T12:37:32Z")
Look, when THIS CDC under THIS administration says do less testing, there’s only one conclusion to be reached. You tell me what proportion of exposed people who don’t get tested you think end up quarantining when they should. If your doctor tells you you should be screened for X, it makes an impression. It’s been 6 fucking months. Improve the throughput. WTF. This is just more “pretend it’s over” shit. ---
**Author:** ![SingleMalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/singlemalt/32/3961_2.png) [@SingleMalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SingleMalt)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4407 "2020-08-27T13:15:41Z")
Probabilities do play an important role in science. So what are the p-values and confidence intervals of _your_ “probably”? ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4408 "2020-08-27T13:31:59Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Most of the public has a more than healthy fear of this virus. we also know that the general public is not at great risk from this virus. My observation when I read the news every day is that both of these statements are wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4409 "2020-08-27T16:07:05Z")
Tons of people people vastly overestimate the risks posed to them by this virus. [https://www.franklintempleton.com/investor/article?contentPath=html/ftthinks/en-us-retail/cio-views/on-my-mind-they-blinded-us-from-science.html](https://www.franklintempleton.com/investor/article?contentPath=html/ftthinks/en-us-retail/cio-views/on-my-mind-they-blinded-us-from-science.html) ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4410 "2020-08-27T16:11:01Z")
She’s a fucking investment officer, not a doctor. She is also ignoring the serious, long term effects many survivors(of all ages) suffer from. Frankly, I’m not interested in taking the risk. You can always rebuild an investment portfolio, not so much a wrecked body. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4411 "2020-08-27T16:14:16Z")
Poisoning the well fallacy. What data that she presents do you disagree with? Regarding the long term effects - definitely possible. At this point, I haven’t seen data to cause me much alarm. ---
**Author:** ![casdave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c6cbf5/32.png) [@casdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/casdave)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4412 "2020-08-27T16:38:22Z")
If ever there was a time for a raised eybrow smiley face, this is it > [@Trom](#): > > Poisoning the well fallacy. What data that she presents do you disagree with? > > Regarding the long term effects - definitely possible. At this point, I haven’t seen data to cause me much alarm. You even acknowledge that there might be an issue of long term effects - despite you having absolutely no expertise in the subject. …and since you have absolutely no expertise, you do not have the knowledge to evaluate if an investment banker with nothing more than an opinion actually has anything relevant to say. In other words, you are the one guilty of poisoning the well by offering up cites from individuals who do not have recognised credentials, do not work in the field of epidemiology, has not taken into account a very major consideration in regard to the virus - and this is the only cite you can find in a world which is overflowing with reputable cites from credible sources. Seems to me you did your google search and out of the millions of articles found, this was the only one that you could interpret as supporting your utterly erroneous assumptions - it is you who are poisining the well with irrelevant cites from uninformed individuals with no expertise in the field in which she is making her comments ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4413 "2020-08-27T16:55:07Z")
Of course there might be long term effects. I don’t know. You don’t know. I’m open to being presented with data that shows the situation is going to be dire. I’ve read articles about “long haulers.” How frequently do they occur? Who’s affected? How do they compare to other known respiratory diseases? Given the prevalence and severity how should it affect our policy response? I’m 100% open to changing my position to one of alarm, but as of now I personally don’t feel it’s warranted. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4414 "2020-08-27T17:02:39Z")
> [@Trom](#): > > Tons of people people vastly overestimate the risks posed to them by this virus. All they’ve shown is that people misperceive which age groups are at greater risk. It’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and you spotted the sheep like they wanted. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4415 "2020-08-27T17:03:26Z")
Does having both of your legs amputated or better yet DYING count as long term effects? ---
**Author:** ![Zyada](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zyada/32/3028_2.png) [@Zyada](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zyada)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4416 "2020-08-27T17:05:05Z")
> [@Trom](#): > > Poisoning the well fallacy. > a type of [informal fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Informal_fallacy) where **irrelevant** adverse information about a target > (bolding mine) It is not irrelevant that the person you are quoting has a job that has nothing to do with the topic at hand. > **[Poisoning the well](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_the_well)** > > Poisoning the well (or attempting to poison the well) is a type of informal fallacy where adverse information about a target is preemptively presented to an audience, with the intention of discrediting or ridiculing something that the target person is about to say. Poisoning the well can be a special case of argumentum ad hominem, and the term was first used with this sense by John Henry Newman in his work Apologia Pro Vita Sua (1864). > Poisoning the well can take the form of an (explicit or impl... ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4417 "2020-08-27T17:08:26Z")
> [@Trom](#): > > Of course there might be long term effects. I don’t know. You don’t know. I’m open to being presented with data that shows the situation is going to be dire. I’ve read articles about “long haulers.” How frequently do they occur? Who’s affected? How do they compare to other known respiratory diseases? Given the prevalence and severity how should it affect our policy response? I’m 100% open to changing my position to one of alarm, but as of now I personally don’t feel it’s warranted. While we obviously don’t know how many people have truly long-term effects (largely because it’s so new), and we probably don’t yet know what percentage of affected people become “long haulers,” some perspective from an article in The Atlantic, about lingering effects: > [@](#): > > A few formal studies have hinted at the lingering damage that COVID-19 can inflict. In an [Italian study](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351), 87 percent of hospitalized patients still had symptoms after two months; a [British study](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/08/14/2020.08.12.20173526.full.pdf) found similar trends. A [German study](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916) that included many patients who recovered at home found that 78 percent had heart abnormalities after two or three months. [A team](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm?s_cid=mm6930e1_w) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that a third of 270 nonhospitalized patients hadn’t returned to their usual state of health after two weeks. (For comparison, roughly 90 percent of people who get the flu recover within that time frame.) > **[Long-Haulers Are Redefining COVID-19](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haulers-covid-19-recognition-support-groups-symptoms/615382/)** > > Without understanding the lingering illness that some patients experience, we can’t understand the pandemic. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4418 "2020-08-27T17:13:05Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > All they’ve shown is that people misperceive which age groups are at greater risk. While they do show that, they also show that people (younger) personally perceive themselves as much more at risk than the data would seem to justify. This misperception translates directly into a degree of fear for one’s health that for most people vastly exceeds the actual risk: we find that the share of people who are very worried or somewhat worried of suffering serious health consequences should they contract COVID-19 is almost identical across all age brackets between 25 and 64 years old, and it’s not far below the share for people 65 and older. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4419 "2020-08-27T17:13:27Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > Does having both of your legs amputated or better yet DYING count as long term effects? Sure. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=219) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=221)