# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [February 11, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758 "2020-02-11T01:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 222
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4440 "2020-08-27T21:44:28Z")
Maybe? At least to the degree that superspreading is a function of behavioral choices like going into large crowds and otherwise large contact rates. More contact gives you both more exposure to become infected and more impact in spreading it if you are for other individual factors a superspreader. [https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/846](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/846) ETA not agreeing with HoneyBadger but addressing that point. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4441 "2020-08-27T21:49:44Z")
> [@Trom](#): > > While they do show that, they also show that people (younger) personally perceive themselves as much more at risk than the data would seem to justify. > > This misperception translates directly into a degree of fear for one’s health that for most people vastly exceeds the actual risk: we find that the share of people who are very worried or somewhat worried of suffering serious health consequences should they contract COVID-19 is almost identical across all age brackets between 25 and 64 years old, and it’s not far below the share for people 65 and older. This is exactly why a non-expert (with an agenda, I suspect) is useless. 1. Discussing risk of death per capita - a useless concept when a country is in either in lockdown or restricted activity. Of course the risk of death is lower because the risk of catching the virus is lower when society is imposing mitigation strategies and people are voluntarily restricting their movements. Take all that away, and then we can talk about risk of death per capita as being relevant. 2. Leaving out deaths in July - So she tries to make a point of how there were so much less death in Texas and Florida in March - June without considering that there were less cases. Why leave out July? By July 22 when she published this, deaths were clearly on the rise in Texas and Florida. In fact, they’re just now starting to decline a month after her article. Why would I trust someone to leave out that kind of information? 3. Why the focus on death? - As others have said when we speak of health consequences, do we only speak of death? In San Antonio, 21% of the people who were sick enough to go to the hospital were in the 18-40 years range. How many of those people were in the hospital for weeks or more? How many of those people will be debilitated even when they get back home? How much does this put them in debt? Even if you’re not sick enough to go to the hospital, how many people were too sick to go to work? Who the hell wants to catch the worse flu in their life, miss work and feel crappy for several weeks or even months? How many young people passed it on to an older family member? Besides not being an expert, that author is not being honest. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4442 "2020-08-27T21:49:52Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > At least to the degree that superspreading is a function of behavioral choices Yes, that certainly seems like a reasonable inference. I wasn’t really sure to what extent the notion of a “superspreader” is behavioral, or whether it’s a biological phenomenon, someone who for whatever reasons sheds a lot of virus. Probably both? ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4443 "2020-08-27T21:54:29Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > I wasn’t really sure to what extent the notion of a “superspreader” is behavioral, or whether it’s a biological phenomenon, someone who for whatever reasons sheds a lot of virus. Probably both? Yes, it’s a bit of both. You can have a superspreading event or a superspreader person. A superspreading event would both the environment and the behaviors. Large occupancy, indoors, low ventilation, shouting/singing/talking, no masks. A superspreader person is usually asymptomatic, presymptomatic or mildly symptomatic that does a lot of socializing with no mask or physical distancing. I suppose you could have someone who, for some reason, has a higher than normal viral load. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4444 "2020-08-27T21:58:36Z")
> [@Tfletch1](#): > > I suppose you could have someone who, for some reason, has a higher than normal viral load. Presumably the worst case would be someone who for whatever reason has an unusually high viral load, but is still asymptomatic. I’m not sure if this happens, so I don’t know if the biological (non-behavioral) aspect is significant. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4445 "2020-08-27T22:04:25Z")
Standard thinking is both. [https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all#](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all#) > [@](#): > > Individual patients’ characteristics play a role as well. Some people shed far more virus, and for a longer period of time, than others, perhaps because of differences in their immune system or the distribution of virus receptors in their body. A [2019 study of healthy people](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38808-z)) showed some breathe out many more particles than others when they talk. (The volume at which they spoke explained some of the variation.) Singing may release more virus than speaking, which could help explain the choir outbreaks. People’s behavior also plays a role. Having many social contacts or not washing your hands makes you more likely to pass on the virus. … > > … Some situations may be particularly risky. Meatpacking plants are likely vulnerable because many people work closely together in spaces where low temperature helps the virus survive. But it may also be relevant that they tend to be loud places, Knight says. The report about the choir in Washington made her realize that one thing links numerous clusters: They happened in places where people shout or sing. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4446 "2020-08-27T22:04:48Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > Presumably the worst case would be someone who for whatever reason has an unusually high viral load, but is still asymptomatic. I’m not sure if this happens, so I don’t know if the biological (non-behavioral) aspect is significant. Exactly. Presymptomatic people are kind of like this. Viral load is its highest around the first day of your symptoms. So the day before symptoms will be a pretty high viral load. Even as you start to get symptoms, most people don’t get super sick right away. So they’ll have their highest viral load and may still be out and about. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4447 "2020-08-27T22:28:10Z")
So now that the CDC has been [pressured](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/26/politics/cdc-coronavirus-testing-guidance/index.html) to change guidelines so asymptomatic people won’t be tested, this problem will go away, amirite? 'Cause we won’t know who the asymptomatic-yet-positive people **are**. Don’t ask, don’t tell. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4448 "2020-08-27T22:54:01Z")
> [@](#): > > _ **This misinformation has a very concrete adverse impact. Our study results show that those who overstate deaths among young people are more cautious about making purchases, more reluctant to travel, and favor keeping businesses and schools shut.** _ You have to love shit like this. It’s not 'We want your caution to be based on a good understanding of the actual risk." It’s “Your caution is preventing us from getting back to _normal_. Also, please ignore all the bodies that we’re piling up to get there.” ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4449 "2020-08-27T23:10:22Z")
> [@Tfletch1](#): > > Discussing risk of death per capita - a useless concept when a country is in either in lockdown or restricted activity. Of course the risk of death is lower because the risk of catching the virus is lower when society is imposing mitigation strategies and people are voluntarily restricting their movements. Take all that away, and then we can talk about risk of death per capita as being relevant. Did we read the same article? Where does the article mention anything per capita? > [@Tfletch1](#): > > Leaving out deaths in July - So she tries to make a point of how there were so much less death in Texas and Florida in March - June without considering that there were less cases. Why leave out July? By July 22 when she published this, deaths were clearly on the rise in Texas and Florida. In fact, they’re just now starting to decline a month after her article. Why would I trust someone to leave out that kind of information? I honestly have no idea what you’re referring to. The word “Florida” appears once in the article, and here is the context: > [@Sonal Desai Ph.D.\*\*](#): > > Our study finds that how the data are presented has a very strong impact on people’s attitudes. For example, respondents who were shown COVID-19 case trends for Texas and Florida in isolation were much less willing to reopen schools and businesses than those who were shown the same trends compared to New York. And more alarming graphics tend to be used more frequently, as they generate greater engagement. Below that text is an illustration of two charts. One shows a case chart of Florida and Texas together, which shows a rise from 0 to 2 per million over a 6 month period. The rise is obvious. The next chart shows the same chart, but includes New York. With the addition of New York, Texas and Arizona look completely flat. Texas and Arizona are nowhere close to what New York went through. Her point was that data presentation matters and affects peoples opinions. > [@Tfletch1](#): > > Why the focus on death? - As others have said when we speak of health consequences, do we only speak of death? In San Antonio, 21% of the people who were sick enough to go to the hospital were in the 18-40 years range. How many of those people were in the hospital for weeks or more? How many of those people will be debilitated even when they get back home? How much does this put them in debt? Even if you’re not sick enough to go to the hospital, how many people were too sick to go to work? Who the hell wants to catch the worse flu in their life, miss work and feel crappy for several weeks or even months? How many young people passed it on to an older family member? I don’t think this is really something to pick on this article specifically for, but…It makes sense to focus on deaths because we have been tracking deaths and causes of death for hundreds of years. We have entire professions and governmental infrastructure built around tracking deaths. We’re pretty good at it, and it’s the best we’ve got. When considering the question “How bad is a thing?” it’s reasonable to look at deaths. Does this mean deaths are the only thing that matter? Of course not, and nobody (whose opinion I care about at least) argues that to be true. As for as your list of questions, those are all great questions. The answer to most of them is that we don’t know yet. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2020, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4450 "2020-08-27T23:27:37Z")
Well when there’s some breaking news because we have the answers, please post them here. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4451 "2020-08-28T01:17:49Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > This misinformation has a very concrete adverse impact. Our study results show that those who overstate deaths among young people are more cautious about making purchases, more reluctant to travel, and favor keeping businesses and schools shut That isn’t necessarily an adverse impact. People who catch it, but are asymptomatic or have very mild cases, can nevertheless spread it to other people. And a very high percentage of young and basically healthy people have some interaction with those who do have significant risk factors. Therefore it’s important for them to be cautious, even if their own chances of getting seriously ill are low. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4452 "2020-08-28T01:32:49Z")
Then post the daily numbers early. 😁🕶 I just made popcorn for this thread! 🤣 ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4453 "2020-08-28T02:18:45Z")
Here’s a good first-person account from a freshman at UNC who got COVID one week in. > **[I’m a College Freshman Who Moved Into Campus. Now I Have COVID-19.](https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/08/college-campus-diary-covid-19.html)** > > I lasted two weeks in the dorms. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4454 "2020-08-28T02:41:06Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > > [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > > > This misinformation has a very concrete adverse impact. Our study results show that those who overstate deaths among young people are more cautious about making purchases, more reluctant to travel, and favor keeping businesses and schools shut > > That isn’t necessarily an adverse impact. > > People who catch it, but are asymptomatic or have very mild cases, can nevertheless spread it to other people. And a very high percentage of young and basically healthy people have some interaction with those who do have significant risk factors. Therefore it’s important for them to be cautious, even if their own chances of getting seriously ill are low. It seems to me that given the people who are actually at the highest risk under-estimate their risk and act accordingly, it’s beneficial that people who are at a lower risk over-estimate their own risk and act somewhat overcautiously given their interaction with the older people who are often their family members… ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4455 "2020-08-28T04:07:06Z")
24,628,074 total cases 835,627 dead 17,094,173 recovered In the US: 6,046,634 total cases 184,796 dead 3,347,940 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 24,332,280 total cases > 829,666 dead > 16,873,307 recovered > > In the US: > > 6,000,365 total cases > 183,653 dead > 3,313,861 recovered ---
**Author:** ![urbanredneck2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/5f8ce5/32.png) [@urbanredneck2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/urbanredneck2)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4456 "2020-08-28T13:13:05Z")
This should be an interesting case study. [County Virus Information page](https://public.tableau.com/profile/mapper.of.the.day.mod.?fbclid=IwAR3GzkiX9VRVz8jnf3n8acoYXUjbP_xoJPXTrb_0RJc-s3MjEGDMWso5kSs#!/vizhome/covid19_joco_public/Dashboard) My county, Johnson County Kansas (a suburb of Kansas City) just passed the 100,000 tested mark. They started keeping track in March. We have about 600,000 citizens. Some stats of those tested: 7,796 tested positive (about 7.7%) 393 of those tested required in-patient hospitalizations There were 116 deaths ---
**Author:** ![urbanredneck2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/5f8ce5/32.png) [@urbanredneck2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/urbanredneck2)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4457 "2020-08-28T13:15:06Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > People who catch it, but are asymptomatic or have very mild cases, can nevertheless spread it to other people. And a very high percentage of young and basically healthy people have some interaction with those who do have significant risk factors. Therefore it’s important for them to be cautious, even if their own chances of getting seriously ill are low. Question on this: While yes, a person showing no symptoms can pass it on but arent they less likely than a person who has VERY visible symptoms like heavy coughing and sneezing? ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4458 "2020-08-28T13:57:09Z")
> [@urbanredneck2](#): > > Question on this: > > While yes, a person showing no symptoms can pass it on but arent they less likely than a person who has VERY visible symptoms like heavy coughing and sneezing? Depending on where they are in their infection, they may be shedding virus as much as a symptomatic person when just breathing or talking. However, coughing and sneezing project a lot more virus (and further) than talking. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2020, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4459 "2020-08-28T14:06:46Z")
> [@urbanredneck2](#): > > 7,796 tested positive (about 7.7%) > 393 of those tested required in-patient hospitalizations > There were 116 deaths These percentages are what I see in San Antonio. So the death rate seems to be stubbornly high even with more testing. Early in the pandemic South Korea’s death rate was between 0.5-1% as I recall. They had extensive testing, so it was thought that their fatality rate was more realistic. Plus, they also were wearing masks right away so people’s innoculum were lower on average. Even with this, had we not done any mitigation, we would have had over a million dead by the end of the year or maybe a little longer than that. (Of course, people’s behavior would change regardless of what the government says.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=221) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=223)