# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [February 11, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758 "2020-02-11T01:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 231
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4620 "2020-09-04T11:00:54Z")
> [@Melbourne](#): > > Clinical trials on some of the bradykinin ideas started in April, and should be showing results in September. I really feel when all is said and done, it will be seen that our tendency to use flu our model misdirected us in a lot of ways. It made sense to use flu. It’s the best model we have of a global pandemic in the modern Era. But COVID is so different. It doesn’t spread like flu, in several different ways. The vulnerable populations are different. It’s may well not really be appropriate to see it as a respiratory infection. The progression, taking weeks to kill, is different. We used the flu playbook, as the only one we had, and it led us astray. I think if there’s anything to the bradykinin ideas, that would be another way that flu sent us on the wrong path: the flu of 1918 turned out to have cytotine storm as It’smost deadly element, and we focused on that. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4621 "2020-09-04T13:15:12Z")
> [@Melbourne](#): > > For example Methylene Blue – which may interfere with the bradykinin process, or may actually be a disinfectant doctors can inject into your veins (both have been suggested) MB is cheap, available, has known thearaputic applications, has particularly been suggested for poor countries, and (I think) been listed in India as one of the therapies doctors shouldn’t be just trying ‘because some of the patients got better after a couple of weeks’ In this case, MB would be acting as a nitric oxide synthase inhibitor (which I just learned, not my field). Block nitric oxide production, block vasodilation. Huh. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4622 "2020-09-04T13:16:34Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > The vulnerable populations are different. It’s may well not really be appropriate to see it as a respiratory infection. Exactly. Transmission mainly through respiratory route but it takes root in the CVS. ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4623 "2020-09-04T13:25:10Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > I think if there’s anything to the bradykinin ideas, that would be another way that flu sent us on the wrong path: the flu of 1918 turned out to have cytotine storm as It’smost deadly element, and we focused on that. These pathways seriously overlap because they’re both involved in inflammation. I suspect for very sick people, you can have both storms going on at the same time. Reminds me of when trauma or sepsis patients have disseminated intravascular coagulation. They’re blood starts clotting all over the place within vessels. As feedback (and running out of clotting factors), they start bleeding. Apparently, it’s a major clusterfuck to treat. Just give them blood and cross your fingers. This seems to be what’s happening with severe covid patients. Cross your fingers. Btw, another paper came out about steroid therapy. Still looks like the best treatment we have so far. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4624 "2020-09-04T13:56:48Z")
Right, but even though transmission is respiratory , like flu, there are so many critical differences: - Surface contagion is less important; droplet contagion more so - Children are amplifiers of flu, but not of COVID - Fever is a pretty effective early indication of a person being contagious with flu; not COVID - Flu is pretty consistently contagious across those who have it; COVID has super-spreaders and non-spreaders In each of those cases, we took flu precautions because that was the best model we had, and it led to incorrect approaches. And even now, the idea that it is “like flu” is so embedded in popular thinking that we continue to deal with this mindset. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2020, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4625 "2020-09-04T22:00:54Z")
Panama continues to improve. I think we’re not out of the woods, but I hope we’re over the hump. The seven-day average for new cases has dropped to around 700, after stubbornly hanging at around 1000 until mid-August. The R0 is now below 1.00 for Panama City metro, although it’s still higher than that in some of the poorer suburbs. The government has announced a plan for gradually re-opening over the next month. On Monday, private construction projects will be permitted to resume. On September 14, they will lift the movement restrictions by gender, and curfew will begin at 11 PM instead of 7 PM. This will be an enormous relief. (Total curfew will remain on Sunday, I’m not sure why. They could be worried about church services.) On September 28, restaurants can re-open for in-person service. Also museums and visitor centers, which will begin to put me back in business. On October 12, international flights can resume, and hotels can re-open. All this depends on keeping the infection rate low. We’ll see how it goes. ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4626 "2020-09-05T01:16:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > When you had stated that New Zealand’s economy was doing better than most it had sounded like a very reasonable and likely true statement that you stated based on some actual knowledge, that you could point me to for my education. …what I stated was reasonable, very true, based on actual knowledge, and I literally posted information for your “education.” > [@DSeid](#): > > Instead it seems that better than most means average at best, that you have no factual basis for the claim. Your “average at best” claim is based on information **from March**. This was pointed out to you not only by myself but by another poster as well. Yet instead of withdrawing the claim you’ve just doubled down. Why is that? > [@DSeid](#): > > Maybe it will turn out to be the case for Q2. It would not surprise. There was no intent at a gotcha here: I really had assumed other than that you were making it up when you stated something as fact. Of course its a “gotcha.” You’ve literally accused me of making something up and that I had no **factual basis for my claims.** You’ve all but called me a liar. But I provided a cite. The article was written by Matt Nippert, probably New Zealand’s most distinguished investigative reporter, and Keith Ng, the statistician who broke the “MSD Leaky Servers” story. It was a reputable cite and the information in the article was rock-solid. Let’s look at one of the data-points that they used. The unemployment rate in NZ in November 2019 was 4.2%. Compare that to the June quarter in 2020 and the unemployment rate is 4.0%. In the US the unemployment rate in November 2019 was 3.5%. In June of 2020 the rate was 11.1%. In Australia unemployment was 5.2% in November last year and was at 11.2 in June 2020. You can dig deeper into the stats if you like. But this is only a single metric. There are more, they were listed in the Spinoff article, you can do your own research. I have no reason to indulge somebody who has accused me of “making it up when you stated something as fact.” People have lost their jobs in New Zealand. But we managed to maintain continuity of employment through lockdown through the wage-subsidy (provided to both employees and small business owners like myself) that meant when we came out of lockdown businesses were able to hit the ground running. Spending matched spending last year. This is not an insignificant data-point. Today’s update from NZ: we had two deaths from Covid-19 in the last 24 hours. ☹ One of them was Dr Joe Williams, former Cook Islands PM. Three new cases today, 2 in the community and 1 in Managed Isolation. Two people in hospital, one in general and one in ICU. ---
**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4627 "2020-09-05T01:57:07Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > they will lift the movement restrictions by gender I’m curious about the by gender gradual lifting of movement restrictions. Pure curiosity, not objection. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4628 "2020-09-05T02:03:01Z")
Federal and state investigators raided a Pennsylvania nursing home Thursday where hundreds of residents and staff members tested positive for coronavirus and dozens have died, authorities said. > **[FBI raids Pennsylvania nursing home where hundreds caught coronavirus, dozens...](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fbi-raids-pennsylvania-nursing-home-where-hundreds-caught-coronavirus-dozens-n1239256)** > > Federal and state investigators executed a search warrant at Brighton Rehabilitation and Wellness Center in the Pittsburgh area. > **[FBI investigating embattled Brighton Rehab nursing home in Beaver County](https://triblive.com/local/regional/fbi-investigating-embattled-brighton-rehab-nursing-home-in-beaver-county/)** > > Investigators with the FBI served search warrants Thursday morning at Brighton Rehabilitation and Wellness Center, the Beaver County nursing home that was the site of one of the nation’s deadliest covid-19 outbreaks. U.S. Attorney Scott Brady... ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4629 "2020-09-05T02:36:31Z")
> [@BippityBoppityBoo](#): > > I’m curious about the by gender gradual lifting of movement restrictions. Pure curiosity, not objection. Men and women are assigned different days when they can leave the house for essential activities. Women have Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, while men have Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. Nobody can go out on Sunday. However, for a couple of months they declared a total quarantine on Saturday as well, so men lost one of their shopping days. Until last week we were also restricted to two hours on the assigned day (or three, for people over 60) according to ID number. According to the rules, I wasn’t allowed to leave the house between 10 AM Thursday and 5 AM the following Tuesday. It was a complete pain in the ass. I don’t know what couples who weren’t living together had to do to see one another. As of September 14, everybody will be able to go out from 5 AM-11 PM all day Monday-Saturday regardless of sex. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4630 "2020-09-05T02:40:41Z")
Do you think the curfew restrictions actually did anything positive? Because it seems like Panama has still been hit pretty hard, and those restrictions sound more draconian than anything I’ve noted from any other non-dictatorships ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4631 "2020-09-05T02:45:29Z")
No, the movement restrictions were ridiculous. In some cases, they probably caused more crowding as people had to rush to go to the store during their limited hours. The evening curfew may have had some effect by preventing people from gathering to socialize. (Another stupid restriction they did away with several months ago was the “dry law” prohibiting the sale of alcohol.) ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4632 "2020-09-05T02:48:35Z")
That was kind of what I thought. My condolences. Strict laws are hard enough to live with … strict laws that are _counterproductive_ must make everyone want to punch a hole through the wall ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4633 "2020-09-05T03:03:32Z")
The best thing is being able to exercise again. I usually walk for an hour in the evenings between 6 and 7 when it’s cool here. At first, my assigned hours were 11 AM-1 PM, when it’s brutally hot. I hated trying to walk then. But even later, when they were changed to 7-10 AM, unless I got out at 7 it would still be getting hot by the time I finished. Also, there often wasn’t enough time to both go to the store and exercise. So the restrictions were actually bad for my health. ---
**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4634 "2020-09-05T03:24:25Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Also, there often wasn’t enough time to both go to the store and exercise. So the restrictions were actually bad for my health. Thank you for filling in my curiosity. It must be a nightmare trying to organize and get everything done in such short window-not much time for anything not strictly business. I hope you are able to stay safe and have some time and freedom after your sacrifices. I will avoid saying anything snarky about my own continental United States. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4635 "2020-09-05T04:14:09Z")
The NEJM just published a fascinating article [from Iceland](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116). The [accompanying editorial](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2028079) summarizes it well and is what the quotes below are from, bolded by me. Huge study in a fairly homogenous population that was very extensively tested with PCR. [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2028079](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2028079) > [@](#): > > … The study was performed in Iceland, where 15% of the country’s population was tested for infection with SARS-CoV-2 by quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) and antibody testing. The study involved approximately 30,000 persons, including those with hospital, community, and household infections and exposures; sampling of the population was performed in an unbiased manner. Using two highly sensitive and specific assays, Stefansson and colleagues monitored antibody levels and durability over 4 months, whereas previous studies profiled antibody kinetics for only 28 days.[2](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2028079#) Kinetic analyses of various antibody isotypes were captured across different SARS-CoV-2 antigens, offering an unprecedented snapshot of seroconversion rates and seromaintenance. > > Coupling PCR and multi-antigen, multi-isotype antibody surveillance, the study provides an internally validated analysis of the power of serologic testing. From their data, Stefansson and colleagues calculate that approximately 56% of seropositive persons also had a confirmed PCR test, demonstrating that antibody testing captured a larger percentage of exposures. It is notable that **nearly a third of the infections were detected in persons with asymptomatic infection**. This unbiased population-level sampling allowed for the calculation of **infection fatality risk at 0.3% in Iceland.** Additional observations confirmed elevated antibody levels in older adults and in persons who were hospitalized. Conversely, antibody levels were lower in smokers and in women who had less severe disease. > > The most striking observation was that **antibodies remained stable over the 4 months after diagnosis** , a finding captured in a subgroup of longitudinally monitored subjects. Unlike previous studies,[2](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2028079#) this study suggested stability of SARS-CoV-2 humoral immunity. Discordant results may simply be attributable to sampling biases. Infections and vaccines generate two waves of antibodies: The first wave is generated by early short-lived plasma cells, poised to populate the systemic circulation, but this wave subsides rapidly after resolution of acute infection. The second wave is generated by a smaller number of longer-lived plasma cells that provide long-lived immunity ([Figure 1](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2028079#)).[6](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2028079#) Thus, sampling soon after infection, during wave 1, may point toward a robust though transient waning. Conversely, sampling later or over a longer period of time may provide a more accurate reflection of the decay patterns of the immune response. Along these lines, a rise and early decay of antibodies was observed in the Icelandic study, but with limited loss of antibodies at later time points, a finding that points to stable SARS-CoV-2 immunity for at least 4 months after infection. > > This study focused on a homogeneous population largely from a single ethnic origin and geographic region. Thus, future extended longitudinal studies will be necessary to more accurately define the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. That said, this study provides hope that host immunity to this unpredictable and highly contagious virus may not be fleeting and may be similar to that elicited by most other viral infections. > > Whether antibodies that persist confer protection and retain neutralizing or other protective effector functions that are required to block reinfection remains unclear. … Nothing about T-cells but from the article itself > [@](#): > > Of the 1797 persons who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1107 of the 1215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive so in this population, with their antibody tests used, not too much room for many antibody negative but specific T-cell positive (unlike the small study out of Sweden). Also from the article: > [@](#): > > Stratified by age, the infection fatality risk was substantially lower in those 70 years old or younger (0.1%; 95% CI, 0.0 to 0.3) than in those over 70 years of age (4.4%; 95% CI, 1.9 to 8.4) Extrapolating to other populations might not be justified however. . . . @Banquet_Bear, I will limit my response to you to a short clarification: I do not believe or meant to imply that you lied. I believe that you honestly do not understand why what you stated as fact (New Zealand’s economy is doing better than comparable ones), is unsupported by what you cited (unemployment is not as bad as they had expected it was going to get) or the data that is currently available (but _may_ and hopefully _will_ be as newer reports get released). There is no utility in going back and forth over it, especially in a “breaking news” thread. Thank you for the article you provided. It was interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4636 "2020-09-05T04:15:21Z")
26,795,701 total cases 878,963 dead 18,907,047 recovered In the US: 6,389,057 total cases 192,111 dead 3,635,854 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 26,471,718 total cases > 873,223 dead > 18,664,286 recovered > > In the US: > > 6,335,244 total cases > 191,058 dead > 3,575,096 recovered ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4637 "2020-09-05T04:36:38Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > @Banquet_Bear, I will limit my response to you to a short clarification: I do not believe or meant to imply that you lied. …I will limit my response to any further responses you make in this thread: the implications of the words that you said were pretty fucking obvious. > [@DSeid](#): > > I believe that you honestly do not understand why what you stated as fact (New Zealand’s economy is doing better than comparable ones), And implying that I’m too stupid to understand what it is that I’m saying doesn’t help your case. > [@DSeid](#): > > (New Zealand’s economy is doing better than comparable ones), is unsupported by what you cited ( **unemployment is not as bad as they had expected it was going to get** ) “Unemployment is not as bad as they had expected it to get” is **completely unrelated** **to my actual point** : that the unemployment rate in NZ is considerably better than comparable countries like the US and Australia. That we can look at two separate benchmarks: from November 2019 and from June 2020 and we can see how Covid and the lockdowns have had significantly different impacts. The rate in NZ is almost identical to what it was pre-covid. But it doubled in Australia and it nearly tripled in the US. This **supports my position** that the New Zealand economy is doing better than comparable ones. There are more data-points. But I’m not going to chase after them for you when you’ve made it clear that even when I literally spell it out for **you you are going to ignore it** and present a strawman version of my point instead. > [@DSeid](#): > > There is no utility in going back and forth over it, especially in a “breaking news” thread. Thank you for the article you provided. It was interesting. There would have been no back and forth over this at all if you had simply accepted my initial response in good faith. There was absolutely no reason at all to state that there was “no factual basis” for my claims. There was no basis at all for you to state that I “were making it up when you stated something as fact.” I answered your question because I assumed you were asking in good faith. I won’t make that mistake again. ---
**Author:** ![Banksiaman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banksiaman/32/3334_2.png) [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4638 "2020-09-05T14:12:58Z")
We’re just starting to get second quarter GDP results, and its interesting if not really surprising reading. Therei s a clear correlation between economic performance and minimising death rates. > Results from Deloitte graph up very nicely. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 5, 2020, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/4639 "2020-09-05T15:10:44Z")
Thing though is I’m not seeing it in that graph. At around 600 deaths per million you have Italy and the U.K. with contractions over 20% but also the U.S. and Sweden under 10%. You have the U.S. and Sweden with similar contractions as Denmark, Japan, and Australia, and better than Germany and Canada all with much better death rates. You’ve got to look to South Korea, Viet Nam, and China to find significantly less contraction Q2 than the U.S. and Sweden. It’s a squint to see that “appears”. New Zealand is due to release their Q2 number mid month. Hopefully they will do much better than [forecast](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/new-zealand-economy-shrank-in-q1-q2-likely-worse-2020-06-17). > [@](#): > > Forecasters say the economy will contract about 20% in the second quarter. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=230) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=232)