# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [February 11, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758 "2020-02-11T01:16:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 280
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5605 "2020-11-18T15:57:24Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > I’m not sure I’d characterize that information as “grim.” Rampant spread is bad, but lower fatality rate is good. > > If 4X as many people had COVID-19 in Texas, that means the fatality rate in Texas is one quarter what we thought. No. This would only be true if the inevitable endpoint were herd immunity - if most of the population is ultimately destined to be infected sooner or later, a lower mortality _rate_ is good news. But we now know we are months away from an effective vaccine. More infections implies a greater likelihood that the disease will spread more widely to kill everyone who it _can_ kill before the vaccine is widely available. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5606 "2020-11-18T16:01:49Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > I’m not sure I’d characterize that information as “grim.” Rampant spread is bad, but lower fatality rate is good. > > If 4X as many people had COVID-19 in Texas, that means the fatality rate in Texas is one quarter what we thought. Most of those infections are somewhat recent. There’s about a 2 week lag between symptoms and getting significantly ill, and it takes about 4 weeks to kill someone. (often longer.) So no, it’s not good news. It’s a preview of coming bad news. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5607 "2020-11-18T16:19:18Z")
Every thread could use a little Dolly, IMO: > **[Dolly Parton adds pandemic hero to list of accomplishments](https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-dolly-parton-coronavirus-pandemic-b60d1d78dd10961e3764574d0f99ab70)** > > BOSTON (AP) — Dolly Parton is being celebrated in song — a rewritten version of her own “Jolene” — for her contribution to an experimental coronavirus vaccine... ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5608 "2020-11-18T17:59:30Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Most of those infections are somewhat recent. There’s about a 2 week lag between symptoms and getting significantly ill, and it takes about 4 weeks to kill someone. (often longer.) So no, it’s not good news. It’s a preview of coming bad news. I’m not sure I’m convinced that is true. If we have a population of (1) people who have COVID and know it and (2) people who have COVID and don’t know it, I expect the fatality rate to be significantly higher in group (1) than in group (2); even if these are current infections. Put another way, these ‘don’t know it people’ should be largely represented by asymptomatic carriers, which we’ve known about for months. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5609 "2020-11-18T18:20:29Z")
That doesn’t change the fact that there is a typical delay of 3 or so weeks between surges of new cases and surges of deaths. Since Texas is not anywhere near 3 weeks post-new-case peak, the deaths are still expected to increase over the next several weeks at least (and perhaps longer if this isn’t the end of this wave’s peak). ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5610 "2020-11-18T18:43:20Z")
I think I’m talking about different things. “New Cases” versus “Hidden Cases” New case rates are going up. That is decidedly bad. So yes, fatalities in Texas are expected to go up because the new case rates are up. This is group (1), the cases we know about. I’m not arguing about the badness of group (1). The article cited stated that hidden cases are higher than previously thought. That is not nearly as bad as a the surge in new cases. My assertion is that part of the reason we don’t know about these hidden cases is because the cases are mild or asymptomatic, which isn’t the most terrible thing. Public policy-wise, yeah, more asymptomatic carriers running about is more likely to spread even more, but we are already knew asymptomatic carriers was a thing. Everyone should be treated as a potential asymptomatic carrier, which has been the case for several months. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5611 "2020-11-18T20:33:08Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > Everyone should be treated as a potential asymptomatic carrier, which has been the case for several months. But the problem is, especially in Texas, everyone is _not_ being treated as an asymptomatic carrier. They’re behaving, and being treated by others, as known healthy non-carriers. And as a result, they’re fully participating in the exponential log-rolling. But _sub rosa_. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5612 "2020-11-18T22:45:56Z")
> **[Texas County Sends Emergency Text Alert To 4.7M Residents Requesting They...](https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/texas-county-emergency-text-alert-cancel-holiday-gatherings-coronavirus-pandemic/)** > > "This is not the year... to have a great holiday gathering, a great outing at the bar, restaurant. It's just not the time," said Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo. ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2020, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5613 "2020-11-18T23:23:19Z")
The state of [South Australia](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-19/sa-toughest-coronavirus-lockdown-comes-into-place/12897542) has just entered a (hopefully) one-week ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown, after a small cluster of cases were detected in Adelaide. This will be interesting to follow, because they’re _very_ early - they have evidence of the cluster itself spreading faster than they can track and isolate, but they don’t yet have evidence of community transmission. They’re skipping the unsuccessful postcode-based isolation that Melbourne tried back at the start of our cluster, and going straight to “everyone stay home for a week” in order to try to prevent the dragging weeks and weeks of lockdown we went through over here. We’ll see if this works okay in a week or so… ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5614 "2020-11-19T01:33:26Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > My assertion is that part of the reason we don’t know about these hidden cases is because the cases are mild or asymptomatic, which isn’t the most terrible thing. …it is dangerous, especially in the face of a deadly global pandemic, to make simplistic assumptions based on a single data point from a single geographical area, especially when that data that is taken out of context, is only an estimate, and the situation is rapidly changing. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5615 "2020-11-19T01:55:26Z")
Have a listen to former Minnesota state Rep. Nick Zerwas (Republican); he is recovering from a COVID-19 infection: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/AKoZUL34LeY/maxresdefault.jpg "Former Minnesota state representative describes harrowing COVID-19 recovery") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKoZUL34LeY) ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5616 "2020-11-19T02:41:59Z")
[You should look at this](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) It’s a map from the CDC showing the COVID-19 case rate reported to them in the last 7 days. The map immediately grabbed my eye when I saw it. I thought to myself that a cynic might say: “That map clearly shows rings of pestilence, sorrow, and death emanating pretty much exactly from Sturgis, South Dakota.” A different cynic might say “Holy fuck! It’s like a god damn bullseye!” But I’ll just note that it’s an interesting map. ---
**Author:** ![nelliebly](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nelliebly/32/5422_2.png) [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5617 "2020-11-19T02:52:25Z")
Wow, that was pretty powerful. Thanks for posting. ---
**Author:** ![JaneDoe42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/janedoe42/32/14104_2.png) [@JaneDoe42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JaneDoe42)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5618 "2020-11-19T02:55:54Z")
The difference between how Trump’s super spreader events and Sturgis is time spent at the event and beer. (And not much clothes, lots of sweaty hugs and kissing and screaming and sex (probably unprotected) in slightly inappropriate places) Good times before the world ended. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5619 "2020-11-19T03:18:32Z")
The AP posted a similar map the other day; turns out they keep updating it too: [https://interactives.ap.org/embeds/Ow74t/22/](https://interactives.ap.org/embeds/Ow74t/22/) And yeah, the first thing I thought when I saw it was “hey; that’s centered right around Sturgis!” ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5620 "2020-11-19T03:29:55Z")
I posted something similar in [the Sturgis thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/aftermath-of-the-sturgis-sd-motorcycle-rally/919616/171) a week ago. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5621 "2020-11-19T04:58:31Z")
Check this out: [![](https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/201118175303-north-dakota-south-dakota-graph-south-korea-gupta-super-169.jpg) ](https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/201118175303-north-dakota-south-dakota-graph-south-korea-gupta-super-169.jpg) Good job, Dakotas! With a combined population of about 1.7 million, you have more than 3 times as many dead as all of South Korea, a country with a population of over 50 million! ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5622 "2020-11-19T05:04:53Z")
56,563,840 total cases 1,354,806 dead 39,352,261 recovered In the US: 11,873,727 total cases 256,254 dead 7,166,996 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 55,943,189 total cases > 1,343,379 dead > 38,963,254 recovered > > In the US: > > 11,695,711 total cases > 254,255 dead > 7,087,796 recovered ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5623 "2020-11-19T05:53:18Z")
This has been the top story on the AP pretty much all day today: > **['Tired to the bone': Hospitals overwhelmed with virus cases](https://apnews.com/article/hospitals-overwhelmed-coronavirus-cases-74a1f0dc3634917a5dc13408455cd895)** > > Overwhelmed hospitals are converting chapels, cafeterias, waiting rooms, hallways, even a parking garage into patient treatment areas. > [@](#): > > The number of people in the hospital with COVID-19 in the U.S. has doubled in the past month and set new records every day this week. As of Tuesday, nearly 77,000 were hospitalized with the virus. > > Newly confirmed infections per day in the U.S. have exploded more than 80% over the past two weeks to the highest levels on record, with the daily count running at close to 160,000 on average. Cases are on the rise in all 50 states. Deaths are averaging more than 1,155 per day, the highest in months. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2020, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/5624 "2020-11-19T05:58:18Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Good job, Dakotas! > > With a combined population of about 1.7 million, you have more than 3 times as many dead as all of South Korea, a country with a population of over 50 million! Some headlines to go along with the chart. In North Dakota > **[McKenzie County Sheriff says his department will not enforce mask mandate](https://www.kfyrtv.com/2020/11/16/mckenzie-county-sheriff-says-his-department-will-not-enforce-mask-mandate/)** > > In a press release sent Monday, the McKenzie County Sheriff says the Department will not be enforcing any mask or business mandate. > **[SD Gov. Resists Mask Mandate as Positivity Rate One of Highest in the U.S.](https://www.newsweek.com/south-dakota-gov-resists-statewide-mask-mandate-weekly-positivity-rate-remains-second-highest-1548523)** > > South Dakota currently has a COVID-19 positivity rate of 56 percent and the highest number of hospitalizations in the country. > [@](#): > > “Over the past week, cases are on the rase in 48 states. Some have said that my refusal to mandate masks is the reason why our cases are rising here in the state of South Dakota, and that is just not true,” Noem said during a Wednesday press conference. “Others have said that my refusal to advance harsh restrictions like lockdowns is another one of the reasons why our cases are rising and that is also not true.” I wonder what she feels is the reason is for the rise of cases in South Dakota. According to her, it isn’t the lack of an early lockdown or her refusal to have a mask mandate. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=279) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758.md?page=281)