# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2020 Breaking News

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758>\
**Category:** The Quarantine Zone\
**Tags:** covid-quarantine\
**Created:** [February 11, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758 "2020-02-11T01:16:04Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 5

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**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/81 "2020-02-20T23:51:44Z")

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Disturbing news: [Ukrainians hurl stones at evacuees from China](https://apnews.com/e01b454b7cf1e9d108174b40bfc744ad).

> [@](#):
>
> Buses carrying evacuees were finally able to reach the designated place of quarantine after hours of clashes. The masked evacuees, exhausted by the long journey, were peeking through bus windows as they drove slowly under a heavy police escort.
> 
> Stones shattered a window in one of the buses, but the evacuees appeared unhurt.
> 
> Since the early morning, several hundred residents of the village of Novi Sanzhary in Ukraine’s central Poltava region had cut the road to a sanitarium intended to host the evacuees, fearing they could become infected. Demonstrators, some of whom appeared drunk, put up road blocks, burned tires and clashed with riot police who moved to clear access. One protester tried to ram police lines with his car.
> 
> Nine police officers and one civilian were hospitalized, the regional police said in a statement.
> 
> Ukrainian police said 24 protesters were detained. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who personally visited the site to try to calm the crowd, said he was shocked by the aggression.
> 
> “What we saw was shameful,” he said in televised remarks. “It was one of the biggest disappointments in my life.”

> [@](#):
>
> But municipal legislators in the village vowed to continue opposing the evacuation, saying that the sanitarium’s sewage system is linked to the one in the village and ends up in a nearby wastewater facility.
> 
> “We can’t allow putting the health and life of local residents at risk, and demand that top officials take urgent moves to prevent people from China from being put here,” they said in a statement.

:rolleyes:

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**Author:** ![RaftPeople](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@RaftPeople](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RaftPeople)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/82 "2020-02-21T01:00:49Z")

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> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#):
>
> Disturbing news: [Ukrainians hurl stones at evacuees from China](https://apnews.com/e01b454b7cf1e9d108174b40bfc744ad).:rolleyes:

Maybe they could be redirected to the quarry?

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**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/83 "2020-02-21T03:20:10Z")

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> [@steatopygia](#):
>
> Another thing. The chart has the US listed as having 15 cases. We know that is at _minimum_ 29 cases. A Spokane Wa. hospital is receiving at least 5 patients to its Special Pathogens Unit. There are 10 of these units around the country, created as a response to Ebola.

These are American patients from the Diamond Princess, which are presumably among the 634 “Other”.

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**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/84 "2020-02-21T03:21:28Z")

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Starting to see effects in places other than China, judging by my previous post and this news: [South Korea declares Daegu a ‘special zone’ over virus cases](https://apnews.com/53db0b30587e5dbf82c8ad9636c42ef1).

> [@](#):
>
> South Korea on Friday declared the southeast city of Daegu and the surrounding region a “special management zone” after a surge in virus cases that city officials say threaten to overwhelm the region’s health system.
> 
> Prime Minister Chung Se-kyun said the national government will concentrate its support to the region to ease a shortage in sickbeds, medical personnel and equipment.
> 
> “A month into the (COVID-19) outbreak, we have entered an emergency phase,” Chung said. “Our efforts until now had been focused on blocking the illness from entering the country. But we will now shift the focus on preventing the illness from spreading further in local communities.”
> 
> Sixty-nine cases of COVID-19, as well as the country’s first death of a virus patient, have been confirmed in the southeast city of Daegu and nearby areas over Wednesday and Thursday, a sudden jump that raised fears that the outbreak is getting out of control.
> 
> The surge of infections in the Daegu area and several cases in the capital, Seoul, where infection routes weren’t immediately traceable, forced government officials to acknowledge Thursday for the first time that the virus has begun to circulate in the local population.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/85 "2020-02-21T03:44:10Z")

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> [@steatopygia](#):
>
> The good news is 1-2% lethality. …

You may be interested in the WHO’s best attempt at coming up with an infection fatality rate (IFR), something different than the confirmed case fatality rate (CFR): somewhere between [0.3 to 1%](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf).

> [@](#):
>
> Using an estimated number of total  
> infections, the Infection Fatality Ratio can be calculated. This represents the fraction of all infections (both  
> diagnosed and undiagnosed) that result in death. Based on these available analyses, current IFR estimates10,11,12  
> range from 0.3% to 1%. Without population-based serologic studies, it is not yet possible to know what proportion  
> of the population has been infected with COVID-19.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/86 "2020-02-21T04:44:00Z")

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> [@Shmendrik](#):
>
> These are American patients from the Diamond Princess, which are presumably among the 634 “Other”.

Probably right. However they are American patients now being treated in America.

**DSeid** , the lower number would be great. I think, that with the greater awareness of the virus, this could be accurate.

Recently feces has been identified as a possible transmission route. This is not great. Feces makes containing the virus much more difficult, even within a hospital. I’m not talking about toilets or water systems. Airborne isolation within a healthcare facility is pretty common and not extremely difficult. When you add infectious diarrhea to the mix it becomes a lot more difficult. Patients with this require much more care and there is much more actual virus being shed. More care and more virus being shed lead to an increased amount of infections among healthcare workers.

I have been surprised again by peoples reactions to this. Someone, I think it was China Guy, said that a possible reason for Japan keeping everyone confined on board the Diamond Princess was xenophobia. I said that never would have occurred to me. Well, now I’m seeing it among people near me. People on social media, including some in healthcare, are protesting moving patients to Spokane Washington’s special isolation unit. People amaze me, not in a good way.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/87 "2020-02-21T04:47:00Z")

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Hey; they aren’t barricading the streets in Seattle yet, tho. Just watch to see if people are putting rocks in their pockets, eh.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/88 "2020-02-21T04:49:10Z")

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76,718 confirmed infected  
2,247 dead  
18,464 recovered

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/89 "2020-02-21T05:08:59Z")

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The back and forth in China regarding confirmed tested versus clinical diagnosis is a little difficult. I worry that they aren’t testing everyone anymore, through lack of tests or simply being overwhelmed. That could influence the numbers being reported. I have no evidence whatsoever of that, just a thought.

I also am suspicious of Russia’s 2 cases. Russia shares a border with China. I also seem to recall a, possibly untrue, story about people breaking quarantine in Russia.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/90 "2020-02-21T05:15:37Z")

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That did happen, **steatopygia** : [Russian Court Orders Woman Back to Coronavirus Quarantine After She Escapes From Hospital](https://time.com/5785317/russia-woman-coronavirus-quarantine/).

> [@](#):
>
> A Russian court on Monday ordered a woman who escaped from a virus quarantine to return back to the hospital she fled and stay under quarantine for at least two more days. The ruling underlined the chaotic public health approaches being taken to stop the spread of the new coronavirus from China.
> 
> Alla llyina was admitted to the hospital in the northern Russian city of St. Petersburg on Feb. 6 with a sore throat and was tested for the new virus because she had returned from China five days earlier. She broke out of the hospital the next day by disabling an electronic lock in her room after finding out she would have to spend 14 days in isolation instead of the 24 hours that doctors promised her.
> 
> In an Instagram post, Ilyina said doctors told her that she tested negative for the virus but still had to remain quarantined for two weeks. “Wild,” Ilyina wrote. “All three tests showed I was completely healthy, so why the hell the quarantine?”

“Because you’re an idiot who can’t be trusted.”

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/91 "2020-02-21T15:04:36Z")

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[Dow falls 200 points as confirmed coronavirus cases jump](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/dow-falls-200-points-as-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-jump/ar-BB10edOq)

> [@](#):
>
> Stocks fell on Friday after the number of new coronavirus cases escalated, fueling worries over a pronounced global economic slowdown.

> [@](#):
>
> “Even if the outbreak recedes, global growth is still set to fall to zero in the first quarter, before bouncing back over the remainder of the year,” Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, said in a note. “Thus, a near-term hit to corporate earnings now looks unavoidable.”
> 
> The spread of the virus is already taking its toll on the Chinese economy. Data from the China Passenger Car Association showed auto sales plummeted by 92% in the first two weeks of February.

> [@](#):
>
> The Dow and S&P 500 were on pace to post their first weekly losses in three weeks.

Hopefully these kind of effects don’t drag on and on. But man, 76,000 cases and ~2250 dead, this is a disaster that isn’t over.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/92 "2020-02-21T15:13:26Z")

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I’m afraid it will get a lot worse before it gets better. Both in terms of the actual epidemic and how many people are killed or injured, and also financially.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/93 "2020-02-21T15:25:17Z")

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I have thought from the beginning that the measures taken did not match the information being provided, but all we can do is monitor the situation and modify what we know (and think and do) as information comes in; hence this thread.

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**Author:** ![PookahMacPhellimey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pookahmacphellimey/32/3175_2.png) [@PookahMacPhellimey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PookahMacPhellimey)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/94 "2020-02-21T17:40:57Z")

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Two suspected cases in my town, Padua, Italy. I’m all set to go to the Carnival in Venice, half an hour away, and hope they don’t cancel the events due to this.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/95 "2020-02-21T19:04:12Z")

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> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#):
>
> [Dow falls 200 points as confirmed coronavirus cases jump](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/dow-falls-200-points-as-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-jump/ar-BB10edOq)
> 
> Hopefully these kind of effects don’t drag on and on. But man, 76,000 cases and ~2250 dead, this is a disaster that isn’t over.

And this sort of news reporting illustrates how badly and breathlessly the media represents information.

After four days of averaging roughly 2000 new confirmed cases a day there were three days in a row averaging only 500 to 600, give or take. A prison dumps numbers they’ve collected into the “new cases” pool (500 cases across multiple prisons that were now added into the dataset overnight per some reporting), the daily total then “jumps” to 631 (per CNN) or 800 (per that report), and OMIGOSH!!!

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/96 "2020-02-21T19:18:52Z")

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I am definitely interested in the sensationalism angle. On the one hand, I think big finance is unlikely to spin things because there are fortunes at stake. But then again, CNBC &etc. need clicks to keep going and have an incentive to jazz things up.

This article seemed worth sharing not because of the number of cases, but because of the claims of a collapse in China auto sales. Something like that really could be attributed to the quarantines, travel bans and general fear, and it is something that in turn would show up in the stock tickers.

At bottom, there is a question whether the reported numbers are accurate. If they are a big Chinese face saving lie, it could be exposed if the financial results seem to outrun them. If the financial news can be trusted, that is. It isn’t perfect either.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/97 "2020-02-21T19:36:36Z")

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The market being at record highs despite this risk is what seems irrational to me.  
If China keeps the restrictions, manufacturers all over the world are going to run out of inventory. If they don’t (which is what seems to be happening) there is a risk that the virus will spread as workers mass again, and then they are really in trouble.  
Amazon is quite concerned that their partners will run out of inventory for Prime day, and some are cutting back on advertising so as to not exhaust inventory.  
Then there is the question about dependence on parts made in Wuhan.  
The supply chain, especially with just-in-time manufacturing, is a bit delicate.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\
**Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/98 "2020-02-21T22:51:55Z")

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“Just-in-time” supply chains are based on the assumption that world-wide, or even regional-wide, emergencies don’t ever happen. Which is in conflict with reality.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\
**Post date:** [February 22, 2020, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/99 "2020-02-22T17:58:37Z")

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> [@PookahMacPhellimey](#):
>
> Two suspected cases in my town, Padua, Italy. I’m all set to go to the Carnival in Venice, half an hour away, and hope they don’t cancel the events due to this.

My understanding is that several small towns, roughly 30-50 km southeast of Milan, near Castiglione d’ Adda, are under quarantine for the next week: no school or public events, residents to stay home, public transit is not to stop in those towns. 50 ish cases, 2 fatalities. See, [COVID-19: Virus spreads to Austria, Spain and Croatia — but Europe keeps borders open | Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/21/italy-s-coronavirus-cases-quadruple-after-8-infected-in-one-hospital)

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![PookahMacPhellimey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pookahmacphellimey/32/3175_2.png) [@PookahMacPhellimey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PookahMacPhellimey)\
**Post date:** [February 22, 2020, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2020-breaking-news/847758/100 "2020-02-22T18:05:57Z")

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> [@Gray\_Ghost](#):
>
> My understanding is that several small towns, roughly 30-50 km southeast of Milan, near Castiglione d’ Adda, are under quarantine for the next week: no school or public events, residents to stay home, public transit is not to stop in those towns. 50 ish cases, 2 fatalities. See, [COVID-19: Virus spreads to Austria, Spain and Croatia — but Europe keeps borders open | Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/21/italy-s-coronavirus-cases-quadruple-after-8-infected-in-one-hospital)

Yes, but a few small towns near me (Padua) are also under quarantine. One of the patients, an elderly man, that died was from a village around here and died in the hospital just round the corner from me. Here in Padua they’ve blown off pretty much all carnival festivities now, but Venice - which is about 30 minutes up the road - seems to be business as usual, albeit with a lot fewer people as usual; between the virus panic and the flood panic a lot of tourists have stayed away.

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