# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 1, 2021, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428 "2021-01-01T08:03:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 130
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2021, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2643 "2021-09-23T15:33:10Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > In the US: > > 43,404,877 total cases > 699,748 dead > 32,947,854 recovered So this is what I get with the numbers: | Total Cases | Dead | Recovered | Total resolved | % deaths of resolved cases | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43,404,877 | 699,748 | 32,947,854 | 33,647,602 | 2.08 | Dead + Recovered = Total cases that have been resolved. % deaths of resolved cases = Dead / Recovered. So the overall mortality rate of COVID 19 was just under 2.1% per the numbers posted 10 hours ago. I made similar calculations last year, pre-vaccine, and ISTR the percentage of deaths in resolved cases was much higher. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2021, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2644 "2021-09-23T15:44:57Z")
You can see the case fatality rate in the US over time here: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/J14cHBJ.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/J14cHBJ) Keep in mind the infection fatality rate (deaths/all cases) is much lower - somewhere around 0.2%-0.3%. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2021, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2645 "2021-09-23T16:17:46Z")
It looks like the current mortality rate on the graph is about 1.4%, which is less than 2.1%. However I was using Snowboarder\_Bo’s numbers, which are totals from the start of the pandemic in the United States (January 2020). Since there was no vaccine then and (I think) most of the deaths in the U.S. happened pre-vaccine, that would skew the percentage higher. I’m not sure what you mean about the infection fatality rate. Do you mean everyone who was, or currently is, infected? If so, my personal opinion is that using the total number of infections isn’t very useful because there’s no telling how many currently infected people will recover, and how many will die. That’s why I used the number of resolved cases – infections that were resolved by recovering or else dying. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2021, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2646 "2021-09-23T16:49:11Z")
It looks like the chart is reflecting the localized fatality rate at moments in time by comparing the recent deaths versus recent cases. So I guess it’s saying that at this moment in time, a positive case today has about a 1.5% chance of being fatal. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2021, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2647 "2021-09-23T17:08:53Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > I’m not sure what you mean about the infection fatality rate. Do you mean everyone who was, or currently is, infected? If so, my personal opinion is that using the total number of infections isn’t very useful because there’s no telling how many currently infected people will recover, and how many will die. That’s why I used the number of resolved cases – infections that were resolved by recovering or else dying. Case fatality rate = # of deaths / # of _confirmed_ cases Infection fatality rate = # of deaths / # of total cases You may have seen it mentioned that the actual number of case is multiples of the number of laboratory confirmed cases. The IFR uses that number as the denominator. IFR is a better metric to look at if you want to look at real fatality rate. > [@filmore](#): > > It looks like the chart is reflecting the localized fatality rate at moments in time by comparing the recent deaths versus recent cases. So I guess it’s saying that at this moment in time, a positive case today has about a 1.5% chance of being fatal. This is not true for the overwhelming majority of cases. It’s waaayyyy too high. COVID-19 is exponentially more dangerous to older people. To get an accurate picture you really need to break it down by age: Infection Fatality Rate by age: 0-34: 0.004% 35-44: 0.068% 45-54: 0.23% 55-64: 0.75% 65-74: 2.5% 75-84: 8.5% 85+: 28.3% Source: [Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications | European Journal of Epidemiology](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1) ---
**Author:** ![Tfletch1](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tfletch1/32/5340_2.png) [@Tfletch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tfletch1)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2021, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2648 "2021-09-23T17:38:20Z")
> [@Trom](#): > > You can see the case fatality rate in the US over time here: > It looks like the current mortality rate on the graph is about 1.4%, which is less than 2.1%. I don’t really like the case fatality rate from ourworldindata. They calculate it by taking the deaths at a given time and dividing that by the number of new cases 10 days earlier. You’ll notice that the case fatality rate is high in May. That’s because number of cases were low at that time. ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2021, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2649 "2021-09-23T21:55:12Z")
> [@Trom](#): > > IFR is a better metric to look at if you want to look at real fatality rate. While you’re absolutely correct that using CFR has all sorts of issues, it used to be the best we had as IFR studies are hard to do right. I was about to point out all of the problems of bias with the IFR studies that are out there and based on things like blood donations and lab results, but they appear to be addressed as much as possible in the study you linked. I’m still short of assuming that it represents a universal IFR, but it’s the best thought out study I’ve seen along these lines. +1 ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2021, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2650 "2021-09-23T22:12:16Z")
> [@Tibby](#): > > The 1918 Spanish flu lowered the average life expectancy in the United States by 12 years. The covid-19 pandemic may soon qualify as the deadliest event in U.S.history. So far, COVID has increased life expectancy in Australia. The massive spike in COVID deaths in the elderly when it got into nursing homes was less than the overall reduction in deaths in the elderly, provisionally attributed to lockdown. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2021, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2651 "2021-09-23T22:20:47Z")
> [@Tfletch1](#): > > You’ll notice that the case fatality rate is high in May. That’s because number of cases were low at that time. I haven’t looked at the study, but generally you would expect the simple case fatality rate to be high when the number of cases has been _falling_, rather than when the number of cases if _low_. Because a 10 day estimator should be \>10 days when the number of cases has been falling, and \<10 days when it is rising. But then you get into a circle where you base the case fatality rate on an _expectation_ of the case fatality rate, which isn’t fundamentally more informative than just reporting the case fatality rate. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2021, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2652 "2021-09-24T04:41:22Z")
231,397,264 total cases 4,742,761 dead 208,082,102 recovered In the US: 43,532,491 total cases 702,978 dead 33,033,525 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 230,882,741 total cases > 4,732,838 dead > 207,590,922 recovered > > In the US: > > 43,404,877 total cases > 699,748 dead > 32,947,854 recovered ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2021, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2653 "2021-09-24T04:51:02Z")
Hawaii has seen two (2) separate air-rage incidents today, but no one is yet quite sure if they were Covid-related. First, on a flight from Honolulu to Hilo on the Big Island this morning, [a local passenger just up and punched a male flight attendant twice](https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2021/09/23/hawaiian-airlines-plane-diverted-honolulu-after-passenger-allegedly-punches-flight-attendant/). It was by all accounts totally unprovoked. At first the news speculated it was mask-related, but now they’re saying no. They’re speculating maybe he was drunk, but it was 7:30am. The attendant was just walking through picking up the passengers’ trash when the guy up and attacked him with no warning. The plane turned back to Honolulu, and the perp is in FBI custody. Next, a flight from Honolulu to Seattle turned back due to a disturbance onboard. That plane landed here just an hour ago, and details are not yet known. Jesus Fucking Christ, but even if you are the most radical anti-vaxxer, anti-masker in the world, do you really, really, _really_ think acting violently on board an aircraft is the best of moves? ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2021, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2654 "2021-09-24T04:59:39Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Next, a flight from Honolulu to Seattle turned back due to a disturbance onboard. That plane landed here just an hour ago, and details are not yet known. It was just said on the TV news that it was a passenger refusing to wear a mask two hours into the flight. Did he think they’d just say, “Oh, well,” and keep going to Seattle? He’s in custody now too, back here in Honolulu. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2021, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2655 "2021-09-24T07:01:18Z")
> [@Trom](#): > > This is not true for the overwhelming majority of cases. It’s waaayyyy too high. COVID-19 is exponentially more dangerous to older people. To get an accurate picture you really need to break it down by age: It is also a different calculation now for the [vaccinated v unvaccinated](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021). So if you want to estimate your own specific risk then you need to first of all consider your vaccination status, then your age, then your overall health status. For me the most telling stat from the above link was this… > - In England, between 2 January and 2 July 2021, there were 51,281 deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19); 640 occurred in people who were fully vaccinated, which includes people who had been infected before they were vaccinated. yeah, 640 out of 51,281, barely 1% and of that 1% only half got that infection two weeks or more after their second dose, and of that fraction the median age is something like 84 with 76% of those same deaths being classed as extremely clinically vulnerable. If those numbers don’t convince people to get vaccinated, nothing will. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2021, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2656 "2021-09-24T13:30:51Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > Jesus Fucking Christ, but even if you are the most radical anti-vaxxer, anti-masker in the world, do you really, really, _really_ **think** acting violently on board an aircraft is the best of moves? > [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > It was just said on the TV news that it was a passenger refusing to wear a mask two hours into the flight. Did he **think** they’d just say, “Oh, well,” and keep going to Seattle? He’s in custody now too, back here in Honolulu. My bold. Sadly, the key word in both these comments is “think.” There wasn’t any going on. This was visceral, irrational rage that began and ended below the neck. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2021, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2657 "2021-09-24T16:23:00Z")
**Alaska** is really shooting up at an increasing rate. Wednesday’s average value of 1058 is up to 1383 as of yesterday, and it looks as if it will be higher tomorrow. **Montana** has set a new record high of 1322, above the previous record high of 1292 set on November 17, 2020. It looks as if it will get higher over the next few days, as well **Wyoming** and **Idaho** look as if they might hit new records, as well. Some other states have rapidly rising rates of new cases, but aren’t yet near their record high values. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2021, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2658 "2021-09-24T17:59:09Z")
> [@CalMeacham](#): > > **Alaska** is really shooting up at an increasing rate. Wednesday’s average value of 1058 is up to 1383 as of yesterday, and it looks as if it will be higher tomorrow. In this [Alaska Tourism commercial](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIC3rlL4aH8), Gov. Dunleavey says Alaska has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country. [USA Facts](https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/state/alaska) says ‘In Alaska, 414,509 people or 56% of the state has received at least one dose. Overall, 362,250 people or 49% of Alaska’s population has been fully vaccinated.’ Since Washington is at 70%/62% and other states are even higher, Alaska’s numbers don’t seem impressive. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2021, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2659 "2021-09-24T19:58:51Z")
Today’s NYT uses Alaska as its state breakout comparator in the regional graph at [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html) - Case rate looks pretty awful. - Setting the State Trends table to sort by Fully Vaccinated Rate (which of course includes all children \<12 as unvaccinated), Alaska is at 50%, which is 5% lower than the US total, and 39th down the list of states, territories, possessions, and special whatchamajiggies. The range overall is 40%-69% fully vaccinated across these entities. For contrast, Spain (where my friends and associates reported being more stringently locked down and having much less access to vaccines) is 77% fully vaccinated even though the US had much more access much earlier. > **[Spain Coronavirus Map and Case Count](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/spain-covid-cases.html)** > > See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths and vaccinations in Spain. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2021, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2660 "2021-09-24T20:11:12Z")
Here’s the world, sorted by % fully vaccinated. > **[Tracking Coronavirus Vaccinations Around the World](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html)** > > More than 5.51 billion people worldwide have received a Covid-19 vaccine, equal to about 71.8 percent of the world population. A few points of comparison: Portugal 84% UK 67% Cambodia 65% Japan 56% Czech Republic 56% USA is next on the descending list, 41st from the top. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2021, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2661 "2021-09-25T07:27:58Z")
231,919,269 total cases 4,751,656 dead 208,529,845 recovered In the US: 43,668,680 total cases 705,293 dead 33,112,993 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 231,397,264 total cases > 4,742,761 dead > 208,082,102 recovered > > In the US: > > 43,532,491 total cases > 702,978 dead > 33,033,525 recovered ---
**Author:** ![JaneDoe42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/janedoe42/32/14104_2.png) [@JaneDoe42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JaneDoe42)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2021, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2662 "2021-09-25T17:58:01Z")
Repeating to self over and over “No politics here. No complaints about our governor here.” [# COVID-19 outbreaks 3.5 times more likely in schools without mask mandates, report says](https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-education/2021/09/25/schools-without-mask-mandates-more-covid-outbreaks/5850189001/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=129) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=131)