# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 1, 2021, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428 "2021-01-01T08:03:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 135
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2021, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2743 "2021-10-02T05:34:02Z")
More on the Merck antiviral. The wording on the Merck site is > At the interim analysis, molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%; 7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo-treated patients (53/377); p=0.0012. Through Day 29, no deaths were reported in patients who received molnupiravir, as compared to 8 deaths in patients who received placebo. That wording “through day 29” suggests to me that they are talking about the time period from day 1 to day 29 and that indeed no-one in the molnupiravir group died. But absent the full trial data I can’t be certain. Part of the problem may be that they are using the term “hospitalized or died” collectively and don’t explicitly break it down further in the press release. i.e. Placebo group - 53 hospitalised and 8 died Active drug group - 28 hospitalised 0 died. Happy to be corrected on this though if anyone can find more detailed data. I must say, if my interpretation is correct I’m surprised that this isn’t bigger news. This is potentially a huge game-changer of the magnitude not seen since the first vaccines. Perhaps we’ve just taken those successes for granted now? ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2021, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2744 "2021-10-02T14:48:25Z")
I think it’s huge news. This do need to take it shortly after infection for it to work, though. Like tamiflu. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2021, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2745 "2021-10-02T15:06:59Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > I must say, if my interpretation is correct I’m surprised that this isn’t bigger news. Which is part of the reason why I wonder whether that’s the right interpretation. I agree the language is confusing – to me it looks flat out contradictory. Maybe they’ll eventually clarify. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2021, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2746 "2021-10-02T15:17:08Z")
Yeah, the full publication will follow and that’ll have a clear timeline of what happened to the cohorts. Mind you, the real big giveaway for me is that the indepent analysts stopped the trial as soon as the effect became apparent. (if you see a huge and immediate life-saving effect early on then it becomes unethical to carry on giving a placebo, something which is obvious when you think about it but many people aren’t aware of) ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2021, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2747 "2021-10-02T15:19:02Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > the real big giveaway for me is that the indepent analysts stopped the trial as soon as the effect became apparent. Yes; but they’d have done that even if there were some deaths on the medication, so long as there were a lot fewer of them. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2021, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2748 "2021-10-02T15:27:18Z")
Yep, you are right. The one thing we do know for sure is that whatever the effect was, it’s a biggie, which is great news. Incidentally, I think the Nobel awards for medicine are up for release soon, it’ll be interesting to see what happens there as it must surely be Covid-related. You’d imagine they are spoilt for choice. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2021, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2749 "2021-10-02T15:52:24Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > I must say, if my interpretation is correct I’m surprised that this isn’t bigger news. Merck stock was up 8% on Friday. Moderna closed down 12% and Novavax closed down 13% on (and was down almost 30% intraday) on this news - which are large moves. Pfizer fell, but not as much, as they have a larger drug pipeline. This news might not be making headlines, but following the money, it is very big news. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2021, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2750 "2021-10-02T16:05:20Z")
Absolutely, and anti-virals are potentially a bigger deal financially. Pfizer stock perhaps didn’t move as much because they have two antivirals in the pipeline as well. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2021, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2751 "2021-10-02T16:12:52Z")
The AP looks at the US death toll: > **[COVID-19 deaths eclipse 700,000 in US as delta variant rages](https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-dead-us-milestone-80209c66802902e42adfbe075ff5272b)** > > It’s a milestone that by all accounts didn’t have to happen this soon. The U.S. death toll from COVID-19 eclipsed 700,000 late Friday — a number greater than the population of Boston. > [@](#): > > When deaths surpassed 600,000 in mid-June, vaccinations already were driving down caseloads, restrictions were being lifted and people looked forward to life returning to normal over the summer. Deaths per day in the U.S. had plummeted to an average of around 340, from a high of over 3,000 in mid-January. Soon afterward, health officials declared it a [pandemic of the unvaccinated.](https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187) > > But as the delta variant swept the country, caseloads and deaths soared — especially among the unvaccinated and younger people, with hospitals around the country reporting dramatic increases in admissions and deaths among people under 65. They also reported breakthrough infections and deaths, though at far lower rates, prompting efforts to provide booster shots to vulnerable Americans. > > Now, daily deaths are averaging about 1,900 a day. [Cases have started to fall](https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-minnesota-pandemics-a16a5ffc1771fb2e5aedcc3096de7d6e)from their highs in September but there is fear that the situation could worsen in the winter months when colder weather drives people inside. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2752 "2021-10-03T04:44:43Z")
235,423,808 total cases 4,811,637 dead 212,238,842 recovered In the US: 44,490,897 total cases 719,674 dead 33,917,959 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 235,077,026 total cases > 4,805,890 dead > 211,833,856 recovered > > In the US: > > 44,443,405 total cases > 718,984 dead > 33,816,494 recovered ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2753 "2021-10-03T16:30:46Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > I must say, if my interpretation is correct I’m surprised that this isn’t bigger news. This is potentially a huge game-changer of the magnitude not seen since the first vaccines. Perhaps we’ve just taken those successes for granted now? I heard yesterday that Merck thinks they’d only be able to make 10 million doses by the end of the year **and** [male or female you have to take birth control](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/mercks-covid-19-pill-cuts-risk-death-hospitalization-by-50-study-2021-10-01/) while on it so it’s likely fetal toxic, so I’m honestly not sure it’s going to get emergency approval soon. ---
**Author:** ![JaneDoe42](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/janedoe42/32/14104_2.png) [@JaneDoe42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JaneDoe42)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2754 "2021-10-03T17:38:03Z")
So, all those folks who don’t trust the vaccine because it is so new are going to trust a pill that is even newer? ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2755 "2021-10-03T17:49:21Z")
One reason people may be agreeable to the pill versus the vaccine is that the pill is taken when someone is infected. When they are at the threshold of their own death, reality hits and they may realize they need the pill to survive. The vaccine isn’t really like that. It’s preventative. It’s easy to not get vaccinated since there’s no immediate benefit. But hopefully when they need it, they don’t realize that a pill that size can be stuffed with a lot more 5G tracking chips than the vaccine. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2756 "2021-10-03T19:49:53Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > When they are at the threshold of their own death, reality hits and they may realize they need the pill to survive. I could easily be wrong about this, but my understanding is that this new pill is only effective if taken shortly after one becomes infected. Don’t know the exact timing, but being at death’s door is likely well outside that window. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2757 "2021-10-03T20:18:26Z")
> [@JaneDoe42](#): > > So, all those folks who don’t trust the vaccine because it is so new are going to trust a pill that is even newer? They also won’t trust a fully FDA approved vaccine that costs the federal government $20 but they will take emergency FDA approved monoclonal antibodies that cost the feds $2000. They opened a clinic in my area but the demand is higher than the availability. > **[Monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19 treatment are in short supply](https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/sep/30/monoclonal-antibodies-treatment-for-covid-in-short/)** > > Monoclonal antibodies, used to treat some people at high-risk of developing severe illness when they test positive for COVID-19, are in short supply nationwide. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2758 "2021-10-03T21:14:45Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > > [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > > > I must say, if my interpretation is correct I’m surprised that this isn’t bigger news. This is potentially a huge game-changer of the magnitude not seen since the first vaccines. Perhaps we’ve just taken those successes for granted now? > > I heard yesterday that Merck thinks they’d only be able to make 10 million doses by the end of the year **and** [male or female you have to take birth control](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/mercks-covid-19-pill-cuts-risk-death-hospitalization-by-50-study-2021-10-01/) while on it so it’s likely fetal toxic, so I’m honestly not sure it’s going to get emergency approval soon. > Drugs in the same class as molnupiravir have been linked to birth defects in animal studies. Merck has said similar studies of molnupiravir – for longer and at higher doses than used in humans – indicate that the drug does not affect mammalian DNA. Having to be on birth control while you are actively sick doesn’t seem like a huge impediment. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2759 "2021-10-03T21:15:21Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > > [@filmore](#): > > > > When they are at the threshold of their own death, reality hits and they may realize they need the pill to survive. > > I could easily be wrong about this, but my understanding is that this new pill is only effective if taken shortly after one becomes infected. Don’t know the exact timing, but being at death’s door is likely well outside that window. That’s what I’ve heard, as well. ---
**Author:** ![si\_blakely](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d9b06d/32.png) [@si\_blakely](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/si_blakely)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2760 "2021-10-03T23:13:04Z")
It is pretty standard for drug trials to have a contraception requirement, at least in the early phases. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2021, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2761 "2021-10-03T23:13:58Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Having to be on birth control while you are actively sick doesn’t seem like a huge impediment. And, of course, people aren’t going to lie about that. 🙄 ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2021, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/2762 "2021-10-04T01:24:52Z")
I mean, what’s the alternative? Not have the drug at all, because you can’t be sure that someone won’t lie about being pregnant and might end up losing a pregnancy or having a child with developmental abnormalities? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=134) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=136)