# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 1, 2021, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428 "2021-01-01T08:03:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 22
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/423 "2021-02-03T13:10:48Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Maybe we can reach more reasonable numbers by mid-March. Maybe, but we have the Superbowl weekend coming up. That may be worse than Thanksgiving. ---
**Author:** ![Treppenwitz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/treppenwitz/32/3445_2.png) [@Treppenwitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Treppenwitz)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/424 "2021-02-03T13:51:13Z")
BMJ article: **[Covid-19: Moderna plans booster doses to counter variants](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n232)** > In the first approach Moderna said that it would see whether a third “booster dose” of the current mRNA-1273 vaccine added to the approved two dose regimen would further increase neutralising titres against the emerging variants. > > In a second approach the company said that it had developed a booster vaccine candidate called mRNA-1273.351 against the emerging South African variant. It said that it was beginning phase I studies in the US to see whether this modified vaccine with variant specific proteins would increase the immunological effect. > > In an interview with _The BMJ_ earlier this month Andrew Pollard, a leader of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine trials, explained that modifying the vaccine was not complicated. “For the RNA vaccines and the viral vectors it’s relatively straightforward, because you just have to synthesise a new bit of DNA in our case—or RNA in [the Pfizer and Moderna] cases—and then insert that into the new vaccine. Then there’s a bit of work to do to manufacture the new vaccine, which is a reasonably heavy lift. But the same processes would be used.” It’s an article rather than a paper, so it’s aimed at the lay reader. j ---
**Author:** ![tofor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tofor/32/13727_2.png) [@tofor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tofor)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/425 "2021-02-03T14:17:26Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > new infection rate has been trending down nationwide in the US since the big Holiday bump of horror I’m having a hard time identifying a real holiday bump. It’s hard to tell because of all the reporting weirdness around the holiday, but I was expecting a real spike a few weeks into 2021, and it hasn’t happened at all. I guess the fact that the new daily numbers are now falling fast in almost every US state is an indication that the holiday was bringing the numbers up and now people are more willing to be careful and stay home? But the upward trend started in October. I just find the shape of the graph to be strange. ---
**Author:** ![Treppenwitz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/treppenwitz/32/3445_2.png) [@Treppenwitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Treppenwitz)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/426 "2021-02-03T19:02:30Z")
> [@Treppenwitz](#): > > BMJ article: **[Covid-19: Moderna plans booster doses to counter variants](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n232)** And here’s some more news on possible vaccine modifications to protect against new COVID variants: > **[Covid: New Oxford vaccine 'ready by the autumn' to tackle mutations](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55917793)** > > An improved jab that will be more effective against variants can be made quickly, says Oxford-AstraZeneca. > Prof Andy Pollard, from Oxford University, said tweaking a vaccine was a relatively quick process and would only need small trials before roll-out. > > There is still strong evidence existing vaccines work well against the mutations that have emerged. > > Although their overall effectiveness may be weakened a little. Re Pfizer (and Moderna), I found this: > As mentioned above, the two mRNA vaccines are based on the initial Wuhan-1 virus sequence of the spike protein. **Both BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna have publicly stated in media [77,78] that, if necessary, it will be possible to update their vaccines with a new variant. BioNTech indicated it could do this within six weeks.** However, this does not take into account production time, which would probably need to be added to this timeline. Manufacturing capacity is currently already being increased in the EU due to the urgent need for further doses both within the EU and elsewhere. EMA is currently exploring options for the timely approval of a vaccine strain update, should this be warranted. (My bold. [Source](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-risk-related-to-spread-of-new-SARS-CoV-2-variants-EU-EEA-first-update.pdf).) In re the A-Z comment about small trials, note that in the EU there is already [an existing procedure](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/regulatory-procedural-guideline/guideline-influenza-vaccines-submission-procedural-requirements_en.pdf) for deferring time consuming studies in a (flu) pandemic: > 4.3.1.2. Requirements for applications to change vaccine composition (pandemic > strain change) during a pandemic situation > > Where a pandemic situation is duly recognised by the WHO or the [European] Union, a variation application [in effect, a drug licence application specific to the pandemic strain] may be accepted to include the declared pandemic strain [attenuated virus] in the pandemic vaccine (‘pandemic strain update’), if appropriate. > > As per Article 21 of Regulation (EC) No 1234/2008, **it may be exceptionally and temporarily acceptable that certain non-clinical or clinical data on the declared pandemic strain are missing. In the latter, the MAH [Marketing Authorisation Holder] will have to submit the missing non-clinical and clinical data within the time limit set in the marketing authorisation.** The guideline is specific to flu, so talks in terms of attenuated viruses (which is what you get in flu vaccines) but I assume the same principles would be applied to this generation of vaccines. j ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/427 "2021-02-03T19:08:38Z")
Not sure if a week ago counts as breaking news, but here’s another opinion on the double mask thing: > **[Osterholm: Double masking could lower your protection against COVID-19](https://www.audacy.com/wccoradio/news/local/osterholm-raises-concerns-over-double-masking-recommendation)** > > Infectious disease expert Dr. Michael Osterholm isn’t jumping onboard with Dr. Anthony Fauci’s recommendation to double-mask as a safety measure against the COVID-19 outbreak. Dr. Osterholm says double masking could actually create a bigger risk. ---
**Author:** ![filmore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/7993a0/32.png) [@filmore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmore)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/428 "2021-02-03T19:25:38Z")
> [@Osterholm](#): > > “If you put more of it on, all it does is it impedes the air coming through and it makes it blow in and out along the sides. The fit becomes even less effective,” Osterholm said. “Double masking could be a detriment to your protection.” Air is going to take the path of least resistance. This makes any discussion about masks more complicated since it is a fluid dynamics problem. A simple recommendation like “double mask” is not necessarily going to be universally better since many in the general public don’t really have an understanding of how air flows through and around the mask. Double masking over a mask which has significant gaps around the edges may actually make things worse, as there is now 2x the resistance to go through mask material and it may be easier for air to flow through the gaps. Double masking can be better, but it takes more of an understanding about compensating for restricted air flow to ensure the air goes through the double mask material rather than around it. Incidentally, this is also relevant with a single mask, since the mask material causes resistance. The people who wear a single mask poorly may actually end up making things worse by double masking. But a properly work double mask should provide better protection than a properly worn single mask. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/429 "2021-02-03T19:27:42Z")
Here’s some preliminary data on the effectiveness of the vaccines in reducing transmission by the vaccinated, not just their severity of illness. To summarize mightily, we already knew from the trials that vaccinated people are less likely to die, less likely to be hospitalized, and less likely to have severe symptoms. We’re now starting to see actual evidence of the effects we reasonably expected but that were unproven in the trails: vaccinated people are less likely to have any symptoms, _less likely to be infectious, and less likely to be infected at all_. That’s a big dose of good news. [https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/03/oxford-astrazeneca-data-again](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/03/oxford-astrazeneca-data-again) ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/430 "2021-02-03T21:31:50Z")
> [@tofor](#): > > I’m having a hard time identifying a real holiday bump. It’s hard to tell because of all the reporting weirdness around the holiday, but I was expecting a real spike a few weeks into 2021, and it hasn’t happened at all. If you look at this graph of [hospitalizations data](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized) from the COVID Tracking Project, it’s even clearer – you can see where the holidays are on charts of cases and deaths over time because the data lag and catchup is visible, but I would challenge anybody to identify any sort of holiday effect looking at hospitalizations, where we’ve got more or less real-time data. ---
**Author:** ![tofor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tofor/32/13727_2.png) [@tofor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tofor)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/431 "2021-02-03T21:40:13Z")
> [@Fretful\_Porpentine](#): > > If you look at this graph of [hospitalizations data](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized) from the COVID Tracking Project, it’s even clearer I mean, it’s possible that we would have peaked much earlier without Christmas. We see the peak right at Jan 6 which is pretty close to where anybody who got infected on Christmas would have ended up in the hospital. So it looks like maybe people got together on or leading up to Christmas, and after that just…stopped? It could be there, but it doesn’t look anything like I expected. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/432 "2021-02-03T21:58:13Z")
> [@tofor](#): > > I mean, it’s possible that we would have peaked much earlier without Christmas. We see the peak right at Jan 6 which is pretty close to where anybody who got infected on Christmas would have ended up in the hospital. So it looks like maybe people got together on or leading up to Christmas, and after that just…stopped? But if that’s the case, why is the _growth rate_ of new hospitalizations slowing down starting around mid-December, after growing very, very rapidly all through November and early December, and not picking up after Christmas? It is really a very, very smooth curve, and you can see it starting to level off well before the actual peak. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/433 "2021-02-03T21:59:51Z")
It took months before the 4th of July & Sturgis motorcycle rally infections really began to be a problem. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2021, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/434 "2021-02-03T22:58:08Z")
I’d argue that if it takes _months_ for the effect of a holiday or event to become evident, I’m not sure how you would disentangle that from the holiday or event having no effect at all – but this discussion probably doesn’t belong in the breaking news thread, so I made a new thread for [holiday and event predictions with time frames](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/thread-for-falsifiable-predictions-about-the-effect-of-holidays-on-covid-19/932163). ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2021, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/435 "2021-02-04T05:04:54Z")
104,911,113 total cases 2,278,576 dead 76,635,068 recovered In the US: 27,150,457 total cases 461,930 dead 16,906,778 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 104,393,058 total cases > 2,262,795 dead > 76,248,475 recovered > > In the US: > > 27,027,347 total cases > 457,856 dead > 16,750,422 recovered ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2021, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/436 "2021-02-04T13:06:13Z")
New Cases have been dropping finally in a real way. Hopefully this keeps up. For New Jersey I’m worried the big drop off we’ve seen might only be an effect of the big snowstorm. I hope it is real. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2021, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/437 "2021-02-05T05:33:14Z")
105,422,088 total cases 2,294,525 dead 77,114,712 recovered In the US: 27,273,890 total cases 466,988 dead 17,031,629 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 104,911,113 total cases > 2,278,576 dead > 76,635,068 recovered > > In the US: > > 27,150,457 total cases > 461,930 dead > 16,906,778 recovered ---
**Author:** ![Banquet\_Bear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banquet_bear/32/373_2.png) [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2021, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/438 "2021-02-05T10:45:16Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > In the US: > > 27,273,890 total cases > 466,988 dead > 17,031,629 recovered …its late at night here in NZ so maybe my brain isn’t working: but is that over 5000 dead in the US since yesterday? ☹ ---
**Author:** ![tofor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tofor/32/13727_2.png) [@tofor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tofor)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2021, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/439 "2021-02-05T12:36:27Z")
It’s a reporting correction. Indiana normally reports \<100 deaths a day, but reported \>1500 yesterday. I don’t think 15 times as many people died in Indiana as normal. ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2021, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/440 "2021-02-05T14:15:42Z")
Still no new daily reported highs in new cases. And that’s holding for a few weeks now > **[Have we flattened the curve in the US? - Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states)** > > Daily Confirmed Case Trends (7-Day Moving Average) in the US In fact, nationwide and worldwide new case reports are unmistakeably trending downwards. > **[COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)** > > Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2021, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/441 "2021-02-05T14:15:47Z")
Yep. Indiana just did an [audit of death certificates](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/covid-2021-02-03/card/oR5QXddpzsMY6jGRl58M) going all the way back to the beginning of the pandemic. ---
**Author:** ![joe.russell](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ecb155/32.png) [@joe.russell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joe.russell)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2021, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/442 "2021-02-06T00:32:59Z")
Iowa is repealing all mask mandates starting Sunday. No limits on capacities or distancing. > **[Iowa's mask mandate no longer in effect](https://www.weareiowa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/iowa-mask-mandate-ends-covid-governor-kim-reynolds/524-98a046c5-912e-463a-b37c-0e63e4a636dd)** > > A new Public Health Disaster proclamation "relaxes existing public health measures effective Sunday," a release from Gov. Kim Reynolds' office says. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=21) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=23)