# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 1, 2021, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428 "2021-01-01T08:03:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 44
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2021, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/891 "2021-03-27T14:04:41Z")
I’m going to speculate that the infection-to-death interval is getting longer, a lot longer, for those unfortunate enough to take the whole trip. We’re a lot better at managing COVID than in the early days, and the folks dying now (and 2 months from now) are going to be skewing younger as we’ve vaccinated so many of the hard-core elderly. Right now out in public I’m seeing that precautions are dropping away as fast, or faster, than vaccinations are rising. With the net effect that COVID infections are (probably) getting more prevalent, not less. That’s before we consider any new variants. I expect this trend to only accelerate as more non-retirement-aged people have been vaccinated for longer and each eventually loses patience and interest in living a curtailed or inconvenienced life. I don’t find masks or distancing burdensome, so it’s easy for me to do the approved thing almost UFN. There are only a couple of activities I miss and once my vaccination fully takes hold in mid-May I’ll probably restart that stuff at a low level. I suspect my attitude is a common one among the moderately cautious people. The incautious declared COVID over (or a hoax) a year ago, and the hyper-cautious may rarely leave their homes again. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2021, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/892 "2021-03-27T14:16:38Z")
Good post, **LSLGuy**. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2021, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/893 "2021-03-27T14:50:51Z")
> [@Melbourne](#): > > [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographicsovertime) > Seems to show dramatic drop since December, much lower now than last summer. > > Those aren’t the same curves I’m seeing elsewhere - is there an explanation for the difference? It looks to me like the CDC graph matches other sources, except the last 7 days’ data is incomplete at the moment. Ignore anything after 3/20 and the chart matches other charts and shows a case rate that’s still quite high @ \> 100 per 100k. If cases really dropped off a cliff in the last 7 days, that would be huge news, but I think it’s a statistical blip in that chart. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2021, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/894 "2021-03-27T16:45:34Z")
California seems to be doing better than many states for the moment. There was a report today that the state hit a record low in COVID hospitalizations. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2021, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/895 "2021-03-27T18:20:29Z")
Brazil is not doing well: > **[As daily deaths near 4,000, worst may lie ahead for Brazil](https://apnews.com/article/brazil-rio-de-janeiro-jair-bolsonaro-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-63e897b16e4767d436916616796b6e60)** > > RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Brazil currently accounts for one-quarter of the entire world’s daily COVID-19 deaths, far more than any other single nation, and health experts are warning that the nation is on the verge of even greater calamity. > [@](#): > > “We have surpassed levels never imagined for a country with a public health care system, a history of efficient immunization campaigns and health workers who are second to none in the world,” Nicolelis said. “The next stage is the health system collapse.” > > [The system is already buckling](https://apnews.com/article/brazil-rio-de-janeiro-health-coronavirus-pandemic-jair-bolsonaro-04931a387c7fb128266235635a1422a1), with almost all states’ intensive care units [near or at capacity](https://agencia.fiocruz.br/boletim-indica-adocao-de-medidas-rigidas-para-bloqueio-da-covid-19). ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2021, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/896 "2021-03-27T20:43:07Z")
I was just going to post about this. Yes, Brazil is doing absolutely awful. Brazil is where we were in December and January, but with more aggressive variants and more social and cultural resistance and defiance toward risk reduction. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/897 "2021-03-28T04:44:17Z")
Hawaii is back into triple digits for daily new cases. Around 120 a day now. Had been down to about 50 a day for a while. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/898 "2021-03-28T04:49:29Z")
127,294,035 total cases 2,789,710 dead 102,571,371 recovered In the US: 30,917,130 total cases 562,012 dead 23,348,504 recovered Yesterday’s numbers for comparison: > [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 126,702,766 total cases > 2,779,769 dead > 102,165,944 recovered > > In the US: > > 30,853,032 total cases > 561,142 dead > 23,275,268 recovered ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/899 "2021-03-28T04:57:54Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > It might seem a stupid question but again: who is dying? Are there patterns in the death stats right now that can tell us… something? On her show last night (Friday), Rachel Maddow showed a graph of U.S. death rates from COVID for, IIRC, age 75+, and age 65-74. At the start of 2021, the age 75+ group had a death rate of something like 60 people per 100,000; the 65-74 group had a rate of around 16 per 100,000 people. For both of those age groups, the death rate is now under 1 per 100,000 people. So, this indicates, to me, that the vaccinations are having a huge impact on the mortality rate for the disease among the elderly, which would suggest that the proportion of overall COVID deaths that are among those under 65 has been increasing substantially. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/900 "2021-03-28T05:02:58Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > So, this indicates, to me, that the vaccinations are having a huge impact on the mortality rate for the disease among the elderly, which would suggest that there’s now a higher proportion of COVD deaths among the under-65 group Interesting. Thanks for that info. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/901 "2021-03-28T05:08:02Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > Interesting. Thanks for that info. You are welcome! I found the clip; I had gotten the age bands slightly wrong (it was age 80+, and 65-79). In case anyone would like to see it, I have the YouTube video of the show cued up to that segment. [![]( " - YouTube") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjR2Xy9Mgis&t=1725) ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/902 "2021-03-28T14:00:42Z")
In Brazil, the newer variants appear to be more infectious and more lethal, which has driven a noticeable surge in worse outcomes for people under 50. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/903 "2021-03-28T15:06:58Z")
France: > **[Paris doctors warn of catastrophic overload of virus cases](https://apnews.com/article/europe-paris-coronavirus-pandemic-france-emmanuel-macron-f0cb190686641139ffb41e493afd3d2f)** > > PARIS (AP) — Critical care doctors in Paris say surging coronavirus infections could soon overwhelm their ability to care for the sick in the French capital's hospitals, possibly forcing them to choose which patients they have the resources to... ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/904 "2021-03-28T15:19:54Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > At the start of 2021, the age 75+ group had a death rate of something like 60 people per 100,000; the 65-74 group had a rate of around 16 per 100,000 people. For both of those age groups, the death rate is now under 1 per 100,000 people. > [@kenobi\_65](#): > > I had gotten the age bands slightly wrong (it was age 80+, and 65-79). Thanks for the clip; that’s both pretty amazing and very good news. But … There are a couple of confounders not addressed. Not sharpshooting here, just hoping to find some more info from somebody somewhere. The graph is of deaths per unit population. From a gross public health perspective that’s a very reasonable measure. But that outcome is composed of two very different statistical factors: infections per unit population and deaths per infection. Each of which has their own list of causes. Since January only a comparatively tiny number of people have aged into the 80+ cohort versus the number already in it. So we can treat the over 80 cohort as constant and this change is the total result of several different plausible factors (plus a few more I didn’t think of): 1. Priority vaccination of the elderly and/or caregivers is reducing the number of over 80s getting sick. 2. Changes in elderly isolation or caregiver employment policies is reducing the number getting sick. 3. Vaccination of the elderly is reducing the number who, having caught COVID, go on to become seriously ill or die. 4. Death has already struck (some / most / almost all / ???) of the susceptible ones and who’s left are the ones, like my very aged MIL, who got a mild symptomatic case last April, or who got lucky enough to be uninfected until vaccinated. The really significant difference is between the bottom item and the others. Are COVID deaths plummeting in the elderly because we're preventing them, or because everyone susceptible enough to die is already dead? Are we putting out this forest fire or is it fizzling out for lack of fuel to burn? And what does this say about the future trajectory of the disease for younger cohorts who may have little risk of death, but still have significant risk of “long COVID” and lingering morbidities. I bet nobody here has answers yet; I sure don’t. But it will be interesting to see them as they emerge from the fog of war. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/905 "2021-03-28T15:32:23Z")
New York & New Jersey: > **[Virus fight stalls in early hot spots New York, New Jersey](https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-new-york-new-jersey-coronavirus-pandemic-us-news-0c5b93c8a3fc612c354bea6ec7fc20e7)** > > ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — A year after becoming a global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, New York and New Jersey are back atop the list of U... ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/906 "2021-03-28T15:53:21Z")
It seems that these recent surges are a bad combination of virus fatigue and premature celebration in advance of a vaccine that hasn’t fully rolled out, in tandem with some really nasty variants. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/907 "2021-03-28T16:01:02Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Since January only a comparatively tiny number of people have aged into the 80+ cohort versus the number already in it. So we can treat the over 80 cohort as constant and this change is the total result of several different plausible factors (plus a few more I didn’t think of): > > 1. Priority vaccination of the elderly and/or caregivers is reducing the number of over 80s getting sick. > 2. Changes in elderly isolation or caregiver employment policies is reducing the number getting sick. > 3. Vaccination of the elderly is reducing the number who, having caught COVID, go on to become seriously ill or die. > 4. Death has already struck (some / most / almost all / ???) of the susceptible ones and who’s left are the ones, like my very aged MIL, who got a mild symptomatic case last April, or who got lucky enough to be uninfected until vaccinated. #2, I suspect, had already happened well before January of this year, and was probably a key factor in getting the death rate among seniors down from its first peak in the spring of 2020. Given the timing of the second surge in death rate among seniors (November-January), I wonder if part of it was the result of families getting together for holiday gatherings. I do suspect that #4 is part of the reason, as well, especially for those seniors in communal living facilities, and those who weren’t willing to take precautions like masks seriously, or who, for whatever reason, weren’t able to socially distance as much as some of their peers (e.g., they had to keep going to the grocery store because they had no one else who could do it for them). ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/908 "2021-03-28T16:27:47Z")
@kenobi_65 - Agree with all those conjectures. And with @asahi just above. Here in Spring Break Central we see little evidence of any thought about disease among our tourists and snowbirds of any age. The locals are more sanguine and mask and distancing compliance is high in public. What’s not high is minimizing the amount of time spent out in public indoors for non-essential purposes. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2021, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/909 "2021-03-28T23:05:34Z")
Aye; this is why you don’t celebrate your touchdown before you’re in the end zone. Or your military victory before the peace treaty is signed and in place, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2021, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/910 "2021-03-29T00:53:56Z")
There will never be a V-Covid day, though. Maybe a day where casualties are low enough that normal is declared. But it’s never going to be zero. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=43) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=45)