# Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Thread - 2021 Breaking News **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 1, 2021, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428 "2021-01-01T08:03:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 62
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1251 "2021-04-29T11:33:27Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > There are people here who have stated they haven’t been to a doctor of any sort since last March. Heh. For me it’s been since circa March of 2017(?) and that was a medical marijuana doctor. ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1252 "2021-04-29T16:04:35Z")
According to the Johns Hopkins site, the seven-day average daily case numbers in India are now over 350,000. That’s per day, again. That’s a new record, and far exceeds the highest US daily record, which was about 250,000 back in January. And it still appears to be going sharply upwards. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1253 "2021-04-29T16:09:14Z")
I thought this was a good presentation of excess deaths and COVID in 2020: [Excess Deaths February Update - kieranhealy.org](https://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2021/02/24/excess-deaths-february-update/) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1254 "2021-04-29T18:45:56Z")
Arizona: > **[Vaccinated Arizona state lawmaker positive for COVID-19](https://apnews.com/article/tucson-arizona-phoenix-coronavirus-government-and-politics-fce7ea3ab13e2881c86abe037793eacd)** > > PHOENIX (AP) — A fully vaccinated Arizona state lawmaker has confirmed that she has tested positive for COVID-19... ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1255 "2021-04-29T18:56:52Z")
Missouri: > **[Missouri struggles to track virus cases among the vaccinated](https://apnews.com/article/centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention-st-louis-michael-brown-coronavirus-health-3359b3587f89f03b7cd7968d82cbbe06)** > > ST. LOUIS (AP) — Missouri has reported just 14 breakthrough COVID-19 cases among people who are fully vaccinated to federal health officials, even though dozens more have been detected in just the state's largest county. > [@](#): > > The St. Louis Post-Dispatch [reports](https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/coronavirus/missouri-falls-behind-in-nationwide-effort-to-track-covid-19-infections-in-fully-vaccinated-people/article_64a9613f-a211-5e8f-9851-c524c2addbd7.html)that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asked states at the start of this month to instruct local health departments and health systems to collect real-time information on “breakthrough infections.” > > States are to collect the data and enter it into a national database. [But by mid April, when the CDC announced its first tally of breakthrough infections,](https://apnews.com/article/us-near-200-million-coronavirus-vaccine-shot-2bc06799e4709d69acc67e0e16047ad6) it caught a disease investigator for the St. Louis County Department of Public Health by surprise. > > “I wasn’t sure how they were following it,” said Dr. James Hinrichs. “I am very confused as to how this is being collected and by whom.” ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1256 "2021-04-29T19:00:16Z")
If a vaccine is expected to be 80% or 95% effective, surely we expect to see some cases among vaccinated people, though. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1257 "2021-04-29T19:08:37Z")
Sure; I think this is just part of the process of determining that number, tho. Outliers are always interesting and this time we can watch the real-world data manifest in real time. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1258 "2021-04-29T20:59:13Z")
The additional question is whether even those who do get covid after vaccination get a milder case of it than they would otherwise. If so, the vaccination’s not a complete failure in them either. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1259 "2021-04-29T21:43:54Z")
Excellent point, **thorny locust**. Right now I think we’re still in the “gathering data” phase of this pandemic. In fact, I’m not sure that phase ever really ends now that we can really crunch numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1260 "2021-04-29T22:22:16Z")
[Brazil now has more than 400,000 covid deaths.](https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-business-health-17ee0978ce839cf8e4f0cf20dc16198e) ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1261 "2021-04-29T22:23:15Z")
Oregon: > **[Brown extends Oregon COVID emergency as cases spike](https://apnews.com/article/oregon-lifestyle-business-coronavirus-health-b3238e04f4ec5b39956473c91de6a8c9)** > > SALEM, Ore. (AP) — Gov. Kate Brown on Thursday extended Oregon’s state of emergency for COVID-19 until June 28, saying a fourth surge of the pandemic is being driven by variants of the disease and causing increased cases and hospitalizations... ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1262 "2021-04-29T23:27:15Z")
I know S\_B has reported some that have tested positive after being fully vaccinated, but I wonder how long full efficacy takes? There are tons of news reports of people testing positive after being vaccinated like MT Governor/brawler Gianforte, but he tested positive a few days after his first Pfizer/Moderna jab. How long after the second round of both those two (or the one J&J) should you expect to get the full efficacy? I know of people that feel they are invincible too soon after getting a jab. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1263 "2021-04-29T23:29:25Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > How long after the second round of both those two (or the one J&J) should you expect to get the full efficacy? The CDC says: > [@](#): > > In general, people are considered fully vaccinated: > > - 2 weeks after their second dose in a 2-dose series, such as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or > - 2 weeks after a single-dose vaccine, such as Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated.html) ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1264 "2021-04-29T23:32:28Z")
Thanks! That’s a lot longer after what most people think. We seriously have a “I got a jab and am partying now” mentality around these parts. I get my 2nd jab Saturday. I still will be super conservative, even after that two weeks has gone by. My wife had a second coworker die of covid this week, and I have an employee that is now on his 6th week of covid pneumonia leave. This shit is real. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1265 "2021-04-29T23:49:19Z")
I have a question about that. Everything seems to say 12–14 days after the jab, but surely there’s some gradual onset, not a (metaphorical) light switch that flips on Day 13. But equally, it’s still probably 0% for hours or days after you get the shot. So how long after the shot is it before you start to get some protection, and how long does it take (=on what time scale) to ramp up to the as-good-as-it’s-gonna-get on Day 14? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2021, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1266 "2021-04-29T23:56:52Z")
It’s Schrödinger’s Inoculation: both fully effective and nonexistent at the same time until need collapses the waveform or 14 days pass. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2021, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1267 "2021-04-30T00:04:27Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > I have a question about that. Everything seems to say 12–14 days after the jab, but surely there’s some gradual onset, not a (metaphorical) light switch that flips on Day 13. But equally, it’s still probably 0% for hours or days after you get the shot. You’re undoubtedly correct, and even the experts say that there’s nothing magical about 14 days, though it sounds like they have seen that, for most people, protection levels typically plateau at around that point. But, a couple of minutes of googling yield articles that don’t shed a lot of additional light, other than noting that it takes “some time” from when you get the shot for your immune system to start to react to the vaccine and develop antibodies. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2021, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1268 "2021-04-30T00:47:33Z")
Here’s the graph that shows effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine by days after the first dose. You can see the vaccinated group starts to diverge from the placebo group around day 11. I’m sure they picked 14 days as the recommended timeframe to account for the range of responses, and because it’s easy for everyone to calculate. [![](https://wp.technologyreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/PFIZER_CHART_NEW.png) ](https://wp.technologyreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/PFIZER_CHART_NEW.png) ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2021, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1269 "2021-04-30T00:57:35Z")
We had a thread on that a while ago, and I did a bunch of research at the time. Here’s what i posted. Unfortunately, the NEJM has moved the graphs so they no longer show up nicely in the thread, but you can still see them if you open the article. > [@How immune am I?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-immune-am-i/939691/9): > > This article reports on the results of a few different studies, including Pfizer’s preliminary data and real world data from Israeli HMOs. an HMO found no decrease in the odds of developing covid from 5-12 days after the first shot, but found a 33% decrease 14 days after the first shot. Another study found a 60% decrease in risk after 14 days. A small study where they actually drew blood and looked at antibody levels found that after a week, only 1% of people had enough antibodies to matter… TL;DR you get almost no immunity right away. You develop a lot of immunity about two weeks after the first jab, and the additional benefit of the second jab is mostly accrued within a week. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2021, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428/1270 "2021-04-30T01:20:09Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > [Brazil now has more than 400,000 covid deaths.](https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-business-health-17ee0978ce839cf8e4f0cf20dc16198e) On a population of 210M. So very roughly 1 per 500 capita. The US numbers are 587K dead out of 331M ~= about the same per capita. We’re slightly higher per capita, but started sooner and are slowing down while they’re still picking up speed. A humanitarian disaster in the making. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=61) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/coronavirus-covid-19-2019-ncov-thread-2021-breaking-news/929428.md?page=63)